Open 855: Not Mafia's Republic | Game Over

[catboi]

OH SNAP WE MIGHT GET TO KILL BRAD HOLY SHIT PULL OUT THE CAKE AND THE FIREWORKS LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

it's too late for me to do an actual reread of the hydra tonight though, I'll get to it tomorrow. you can look up what they said on taly/arete yourself

[catboi]

depends if you think her unvote makes sense and her never revoting him even as I built that wagon up makes sense

i'm just pulling from iso so not really looking for context right now

[catboi]

ok

if you're town I think the solve is NM is mafia and AnR is last wolf

I'll reread AnR iso tomm I think catboi wants to yeet the hydra

I'm not decided on anything by a large margin I was just spitballing last night

[catboi]

I'll get to reading things tonight

[catboi]

boy was I out of it the other night - for some reason I had it in my head that taly/arete occupied the same slot even though that's obviously wrong

immediate thoughts on people

catboi: should be fairly obvious atp I'm not scum, if I actually have to answer for myself I will

pooky: just very unlikely scum on play, I think ydrasse actually claims mafia if he's mafia with her, I think the length he went to arguing with arete to try to kill me doesn't happen if they're both wolves

penguin: basically never a wolf because of arete's push on him day 1, could still be mafia. basically never voting him while we're hunting for the wolf

spf: very unlikely mafia given she went for voting off ydraase day 2. could be a wolf, but I realized distancing like that on Day 1 is risky with a seer active. dunno if I really feel it.

n_m: could be anything and I wouldn't be surprised, don't think he's very likely to be town at all. don't think the evidence of whatever arete said matters much at all

a&r: not mafia, could still be a wolf, posts on arete are kind of suspect.

[catboi]

unrelated to other things on a reread i kind of dislike 335 for a&r on the abomination, just the way they were phrasing that suspicion is kind of hard for me to believe

Arete's reads feel fine, them talking about the Ace portion of Abomination basically aligns itself with how I was reading that slot. 4mask read I agree on. Adding them to my townlist.

- Brad

VOTE: Arete LastWoof

- Brad

Town:

SPF
Catboi

Townlean:

Pooky
Abomination
Arete
Ydrasse

That's really it.

- Brad

Arete wall post makes my eyes glaze over so they are null.

SPF and Not mafia I still scum lean.

- sk

ok so why dont u vote for arete then?

I'd rather vote for you.

i think what's most striking to me actually is how little a&r actually interacts with arete, there's very little actual mention of them which given activity and how much they went at it with other players is...kind of strange?

[catboi]

I also just...don't find them that towny on a reread, the stuff I liked was earlier in the game but taking in the body of work I didn't care for the scumcases they were pushing.

IDK, might be conf-biasing myself but that's where I'm at

[catboi]

I imagine their post count by day would also be funny

[catboi]

Spoiler:

like if you guys are super sure that townbloc has only one wolf in it, then that means the 3 voters other than me are Mafia/Mafia/Wolf.

Which means the two mafia know who one of the wolves is

and like i dunno wtf they're doing but they sure aren't telling us who it is.

so where I'm at right now is like

group 1: people who have not been townie

STD, Penguin, Not_Mafia

none of these people have anything going for them. you can maybe sorta make an argument that STD has occasionally been solving but he is also kinda blatantly a Ydrasse partner.

it would make me really sad if any of those people were town. reality, obviously, doesn't care what makes me sad, but if someone is going to sign up to a game and then not even bother to try to solve at all then, like, what are they even doing!!

(admittedly their play is mostly kind of disappointing as scum too but I play on MU, I'm used to there being evils who just don't even bother to try)

but like

it's day 3

surely anyone in this group who's town should be able to do literally anything townie whatsoever by now, and they haven't

I do agree with your theory that this is more likely to have both mafia based on voting patterns from yesterday

group 2: people who have been townie

you, Braddra, SPF, Catbae

mathematically there's gotta be a scum in this group

so then I'm like

well, you look pretty good from the argument with Catbae yesterday, you kinda attached a giant lightning rod to yourself there, which you probably wouldn't want to do on either bad guy team. your day 1 shield on Penguin makes me think you're not likely to be scum unless you're specifically with him -- so if he flipped mafia or whatever I could basically clear you of being a werewolf. And you've been the hardest pusher on 'we need to kill werewolves not mafia' which makes me think that if you're scum you're more likely to be mafia, and I don't care if you're mafia, and also you being mafia would imply really weird things about yesterday's wagons. but then you're the one on the list I have the least handle on, you've been playing since I was two years old, maybe you could be galaxy-braining me?? but I don'tt hink so.

and then with Brad + Sabi, I've played several times with Brad as both alignments, and he's just a terrible scum, seriously I think me and SPF and Gira are failing to convey just how bad at scum he is. (this was really frustrating one time when I was trying to get him misexe'd on my homesite and he was like 'no I've been posting and I can't do that as evil' and like half the game was like 'yeah' and I kept pushing and one of him or his hydra partner threw a massive tantrum in thread. idk if I'm allowed to blame him for that though, it might've been his partner.) anyways, he would need to have massively levelled up his play as evil to be a wolf here. I also think some of the interactions between Sabi + Brad are real, like them fighting about SPF's alignment (although that could technically be real even if they are scum).

and then with SPF, she's been "solvy" all game though that's fakeable in multiball, her progressions have seemed really natural, I feel bad about yeeting her when she's clearly trying. I guess I have less I can solidly point to that makes her Definitely Town, that's not something she's fooled me with before.

and then with Catbae -- well, this doesn't change whether he is, but I really don't want the solviest tryhardiest person in the whole game to be an evil, that's just embarrassing for the rest of us. but even if I put that aside, like, he's been making enemies, he Cares in a way that no one else Cares, he had that whole emotional thing yesterday, and if he's either evil there's no one I can point to that makes sense as his partner.

and when I write it out like this the obvious conclusion is that I'm misreading SPF and was kind of avoiding looking in that direction because it'd make me feel stupid

but idt I'm misreading anyone else in the group?

idk what the mafia are doing. my current best guess is that there are two mafia in {STD, Penguin, Not_Mafia} and they're avoiding saying anything that might be taken as confirming that because if they confirm that they lose, as long as they can say there Could Be a mafia in the townblock they have a chance of victory, just a really small one

I've been trying to get one of them to juuuust claiiiiim already but so far it doesn't seem to be working

I guess it's also possible they know they're fucked and have decided to throw for werewolves rather than town, in which case I don't really have anything I can say to convince them otherwise other than 'gamethrowing is bad, play to win' which, well,

gestures at Ydrasse not claiming

I think you're mistaking

effort

for actual towniness

maybe

if we temporarily stipulate a world where you're town, who are the evils and which ones are on which team

busting out laughing at this interaction

[catboi]

so it seems like u agree with me that there's a wolf between penguin/not_mafia, even in a world where i'm a wolf with one of them. who do u think that would be atm?

leaning Penguin

if I go with the model where mafia would be fine with being wolfy/not want to be super townie whereas werewolves would want to be perceived as town, I think Penguin's early game feels more like someone who is vaguely gesturing in the direction of wanting to be townread and failing, while NotMafia's game felt more like someone who Just Did Not Care At All (albeit this is less true today)

also when I was trying to get Someone In That Trio to claim mafia and point out a werewolf in that group Penguin's response felt more like 'no I can't claim mafia (because I'm not and I'd get CC'd' whereas NotMafia's response was more like 'haha .... unless?' [they also said not to call them town like a page back but that might be a pun on their name]

and NotMafia is making pushes that make more sense for someone-who-is-hunting-wolves than someone-who-is-hunting-mafia

this is a very lulzy read, but i am not entirely sure arete actually defends a partner in this way, idk

[catboi]

havent really had time to play this game today but gira when u get a chance can u pls look at arete's interactions with not_mafia and tell me if u think they have partner equity?

I think it's certainly possible, like I said earlier, I don't think anything is really clearing there

[catboi]

1694

is

bad tho

[catboi]

the strongest point in favor of A&R is arete just going in and slapping them as top town but i'm fairly sure they entered after the hydra was already getting townread by me & spf

the thing about that is though is that arete almost never interacted with them after that

it's really stark

[catboi]

don't think he's very likely to be town at all

Why? I don't see why I'm getting scumread in this so much in this particular game versus others

it feels like you're trying to give th appearance of actually playing but I never get the sense there's much logical basis to anything you've said this game

[catboi]

don't think he's very likely to be town at all

Why? I don't see why I'm getting scumread in this so much in this particular game versus others

it feels like you're trying to give th appearance of actually playing but I never get the sense there's much logical basis to anything you've said this game

When have I ever been a logical player?

logi was probably the wrong word but usually when you think something for real it's possible to infer the reasons. i don't feel that here

[catboi]

NM siding with scum is just normal NM

that is not really true he often has decent reads when he cares

he just likes trolling

here it feels more like he's been aggressively antitown though

[catboi]

if he's not a wolf he probably gets NKed though because the wolf literally has to hunt for mafia to avoid losing

[catboi]

so uh, phew

busy day today

i think i'm going to vote abbyandrani for the continued radio silence

[catboi]

And I make no sense as scum here since I'm just going along with the bet the game on locktown Pooky and catboi strategy

fair enough i suppose

[catboi]

VOTE: abbyandrani

[catboi]

the sadness is i thought N_M was towntelling yesterday and logged in to find him dead

[catboi]

Damn the Hydra ignored us, sadge.

Anyway feel like the Abomination are having scum fatigue?

- sk

I know there's no such thing as TMI in multi-ball but this is TMI in multi-ball.

BTW, whoever posted this (hoolowkatt?)

sick read, never trash-talking your reads again

picking up on this on a reread helped get me to a&r wolf

NKA is underrated

[catboi]

I'm gonna need a minute, I do kinda want to try to sort thru ydra/std now

[catboi]

whats your read on spf so far

slight scumlean, her read on abomination looked like she might have come up with it to have "content" in her opening, a review of abomination's posts to that point showed they were mostly joking/shitposting, which is fun and good but hardly an alignment tell. do think abomination has had towny posts since then though, and since there are so many scum in this setup, having a handful of townreads means everyone else has greater than a coinflip chance of being scum

i disagree with this, i think abomination's jokey posts and stuff can be read for alignment, like, would scum still make that particular joke? what kind of energy is being given off? i don't think it's a bad read by spf just to post content.

[catboi]

@arete - i don't understand why you quoted #44, #67, or #115 as examples of penguin "trying to look like he's doing something", when #44 was a non-game related post, #67 was a filler post, and #115 was a meme post. how do any of those posts give off the impression that penguin is trying to "look' towny or look like he's producing content? the only posts i can grant you as being relevant to your point are #31 and #217, but even those don't feel like they come from the perspective of someone who is trying to project townyness, regardless of their alignment

and the only reason im so hung up on this point is because i feel like your reasoning for having penguin in your scumpool is just kind of ....demonstrably incorrect? it's not the read on penguin itself, just the logic, and i feel like it exemplifies a broader issue of your reads in this game feel like they are being formed too quickly and not proportional to your actual reasoning, which is very unlike the town games ive seen from u in the past

i might be conf biasing/tunneling so ill give you some space but yeah i just dont really like your reads list and think it might be scum indicative

44 I'm pretty sure is referencing Vroendal since I'm not sure why else they would randomly bring up someone who isn't even in the game

67 ...... is, as you say, a filler post. Yes. That is kind of the entire problem here, that they're writing a lot of tangentially game-related filler posts that are just related enough to look like they're doing something, without actually doing anything.

115 would be fine on its own, lots of people meme a bit just as their personality, but in the context of the reset of their posting it feels like a continuation of the same trend, of posts that kind of vaguely surface-level relate to the game (Abomination's PFP in the wagon) but don't actually do anything.

also to be clear it's less about projecting 'towniness' per se and more about projecting 'do-something-ness'

re: the logic, I mean, if you look at the logic I use in normal games and the logic I'm using here, there are going to be some differences, because

normally I look for people who are genuinely solving without TMI

and that's mostly not going to help here -- although even then, my Penguin read

is

based on similar principles to 'normal game logic in not-multiball games' and you're being weirdly defensive of him for no clear reason (you can say you're not trying to but that is in fact the actual effect of what you are doing, so)

What even is your actual read on Penguin, I was sort of hoping I would get it after I pointed out you were being partnery but I guess I didn't explicitly ask for it.

i think this is fine? i don't really see penguin doing much of anything so far and i'm not sure why this take is getting hate

[catboi]

town
staypositivefriend
The Abomination
Save The Dragons
PookyTheMagicalBear
Arete Lastname
Meditation

null
catboi
Not_Mafia

scum
4maskwolf
AbbyandRani
Ydrasse
PenguinPower

VOTE: PenguinPower

it is probably worth questioning whether atd ould bus his whole team in multiball

granted that he is a crafty bugger who has snowed me more than once

[catboi]

Anyway my town list is way shorter than Brad

It's pooty, dragon and penguin.

Penguin probs town.

why are people tring penguin?

this kinda feels mafia-indicative though

[catboi]

the abomination slot townreading the save the dragon slot when they have been howling for well over a dayphase now is proof to me that the abomination slot is not actually trying to solve regardless of their alignment

live look at me rn

Spoiler:

no actually i'm raising my eyebrow at this

[catboi]

i wrote a song

it's called

Arete is a Wolf

Arete is a wolf
Arete has a lastname
Arete is a wolf
Yeet them from the game
Arete is a wolf
Arete is a liar
Arete is a wolf
Yeet their slot with fire!

this has nothing to do with anything I just want to bring appreciation to this elite post

[catboi]

my gut is screaming to me that it's spf now

I'm going to reread her like I did with A&R but I kind of think she might have known A&R were wolf last phase

[catboi]

we can just yeet them both unless u think i have some scum equity

probably not

I just want to get it right now rather than get lazy and salt the game away

[catboi]

pooky i can never stay away from this game I just need a vacation

but regardless, day 2 never plays out the way it does if i'm mafia with ydra/std, hell yesterday I probably take the yeet on spf over getting a&r

it's just my motivating desire is to get it right so I can have a game I feel good about yknow

[catboi]

if you think that i spent the first two dayphases of this game hardpushing and hardbussing both of my mafia partners in a setup where bussing would be explicitly against my win condition, then you're just insulting my wolf game tbh

im not stupid and i wouldnt bus myself into literal autoloss when it is entirely and completely unnecessary and when there would be millions of other better and easier options to push instead

if catboi votes me today then i want him kiilled tomorrow on policy. idc how harsh it sounds but if there's one person in this game who i would expect to know that im experienced enough to not play in the most dumbass and sub-optimal way possible, it would be him

I don't define the posts you quoteed as "hard pushing" and I would actually expect you to distance from two partners who had little in the way of WIM this game. I think there's a chance that thse reads could jus be informed as compared to the wolf reads, but ydra and std were easy reads for me too so maybe that's a bit hypocritical of me.

But I'm not dead set on the read by any means, I'm willing to hear you out while I do my own homework. If I am wrong and you're town, don't hold it against me - I've been wrong a lot before and will continue to be wrong a lot in the future.

[catboi]

god i wish the EM forum archives weren't dead so I could read north pole oligarchy lol

[catboi]

god i wish the EM forum archives weren't dead so I could read north pole oligarchy lol

i have some fairly recent scum games on MU if that's what ur looking for lol

north pole oligarchy is actually a good frame of reference since i was also mafia in that game and went out of my way to protect my partners for the first few dayphases until it became mechanically necessary on like ...d3/d4 to start bussing them lol

that's specifically why i was referencing it cuz it's a modified version of this setup and i think the particularities of it being multiball with a team with no nightkill necessitates different strategy than in other setups


all i remember was subbing in, gutreading matt off a few posts but being unable to articulate it, you catching me and me subbing out cuz i dcouldn't keep up and didn't want to drag super down. apparently you ended up getting nightkilled in that game becaue you took a risk with the kill list but were too towny?

[catboi]

okay but that entire game had meta on u cmon lol

[catboi]

anyway don't have time to read tonight, tomorrow will do another review

[catboi]

good mornya

[catboi]

if you think that i spent the first two dayphases of this game hardpushing and hardbussing both of my mafia partners in a setup where bussing would be explicitly against my win condition, then you're just insulting my wolf game tbh

im not stupid and i wouldnt bus myself into literal autoloss when it is entirely and completely unnecessary and when there would be millions of other better and easier options to push instead

hm, hm, hm

[catboi]

spf: I think you are significantly overstating the extent to which you actually pushed talydrasse and STD, and I think that's scummy

[catboi]

ok why wouldn't he effort if he's a wolf again?

because there is no one else in this game putting in even a mild amount of effort, which means it would be extremely easy (and likely optimal) for him as mafia to lurk & blend in with the rest of the thread, like literally every other player is doing. he is putting effort into solving the game at a point where it would be very easy for him to get away with not doing so as mafia, which indicates to me that his solving is coming from an authentic place and that he is playing from an uninformed perspective

it's always possible that he's a mafia/wolf trying to hunt for the other team but in that world i think his solving would look less "pure" and a bit more informed than it currently does. im not like, superbly confident about him being town, but i think he's demonstrably one of the towniest people in the thread right now

this is kind of a thing where i was so desperate in the game that i didn't want to question my defenders

but I'm fairly sure you know I take pride in my scumgame and am the reigning don corleone on here

So I have to say:

really

?


(I know pooky called this out a million years ago. I'm sorry pooky. I was flustered at the time)

[catboi]

the abomination slot townreading the save the dragon slot when they have been howling for well over a dayphase now is proof to me that the abomination slot is not actually trying to solve regardless of their alignment

also, this feels like a

classic

tmi sort of post, I'm sorry, it just does

[catboi]

I kind of think it's notable that neither mafia went for spf when she was a wagon. we know the wolf team was pocketing her but despite her repping scumreads on them they didn't try to yeet her

[catboi]

also ydra being annoyed at NM felt kinda partnery

Everyone is annoyed at me all the time

Vote the SabiHydra with me

Well that was an unfortunate night death. Why was there only one night kill if there's two groups?

Also why was night so long???

- sk

This is a wolf post

nm i'm so sorry, i did you dirty this game

[catboi]

you could still be wolf with bradsabi I guess

as long as catbae thats Sabi+SPF is impossible as a team I am fine with it

if the sabi slot ends up being a wolf then i will eat multiple types of hats

which types of hats, out of curiosity

[catboi]

Done rereading spf's ISO. SPF, I'm always voting her today and I'm sorry if that's wrong but I can't see myself making any other choice. SPF, I'll give you time to give a final read, I'm not rushing this, but I can't see myself making another choice here.

[catboi]

wow i edited that post badly lmao

[catboi]

staypositivefriend is FROZEN and CRYING

[catboi]

i mean - pooky is never wrong on me and is strongly town on you so...can we...just...move on?

i'm an impatient penguin

sorry, I get it - I just wanted to give her a chance here in the event we are wrong. If we get continued radio silence into tomorrow morning I'm just voting.

[catboi]

im ready to be carried

also I wouldn't put it that way - my day 2 reads were dog crap and you put me on the right course this game

[catboi]

She has 'til when I wake up tomorrow

[catboi]

was cool to play another game on this site, gg all

nice gaming with you again, let's run it back sometime

[catboi]

sorry for being a dick on day 2. something I need to work on. pooky and abomination were great this game and I shouldn't have snapped at them. But this was kind of the full mafia experience, getting both the lows and highs of it, going from vicious fighting to working together and figuring the game out. Satisfying win to take a break on.

And big thans to all my townie teammates in this game.

[catboi]

sorry for being a dick on day 2. something I need to work on. pooky and abomination were great this game and I shouldn't have snapped at them. But this was kind of the full mafia experience, getting both the lows and highs of it, going from vicious fighting to working together and figuring the game out. Satisfying win to take a break on.

And big thans to all my townie teammates in this game.

yea sorry bout that vicious 1v1; it was not the best way to sort you but I'm not very good at reading you >_> oopz.

it was fun to work together and get the win.

it's okay, to a certain extent it's part of the game, sometimes you need to have a misunderstanding and throw punches at each other in order to find each other. I just could have been less rude about it.

[catboi]

i believe this is the first time this setup was won by town on forum btw

Not even close to true, BTW:

Jungle Republic

the jungle oligarchy variant hasn't been won by town, I believe, but it's relatively new. First town win since 2017 though! Breaks up a massive chunk of scum wins on the setup.

[catboi]

For the purposes of archival, I used a program to export the werewolf discord chat as html, here is the link: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/ ... wolves.zip