That's an interesting take from someone I've been alive with for all of 1 game day with but I'll play along why not.
Let's see day 1... I called Vivax town on the first page of the entire game (Notably Gamma in the brief time they were alive in the game also said Vivax was probably town for the same reasons as I did). Then Gera made a post I don't see scum Gera making (and later made a second). Fred got early shade for playing like a douche, then Andante suddenly got a horrible train led by scum Meg. Of any train, that's the one I opposed to most of any in the entire game. When Meg later flipped scum, it practically townlocked Andante. I also prodded DWLee (who is now Mala) for doing virtually nothing.
Meg and Fred were going out of their way to attack the wagons on each other, but Meg kinda just... Totally stopped playing for like 2-3 days. After he sat at -2 for like 30 hours, I said screw it and put him -1 telling him to either post or die. Malcolm then accidentally hammered and day one ended early. Fred and Meg tied to each other very strongly on day 1 to the point where I made it clear Fred would be my #1 scumread on a Meg scumflip. Meg killed momentum on Fred as soon as it started to build, and Fred eventually defended Meg using a single post from days ago after ignoring the train originally. Fred also... Had no apparent scumlist and claimed to townread almost everyone in the game for basically no reason, and just.. Kinda kept lazy spewing nonsense. He voted Bugspray for "not attempting to find the scum"... Which I then directly accused Fred of doing himself when he voted Bugspray to begin with. On day 3 I noted that Prince notably attacked the vote leader on Meg just 9 posts after Meg took the vote lead, then voted Meg just 8 posts after Lowell put another vote on it. I townread Lowell based on my interaction with him at the end of the day, which is something Fire immediately took exception to.
End of day 1/late day 2 I nudged at Unsure because where his vote ended the previous day did not match what he was actually saying (It was Unsure's shaky countersuspicion of me that had Greeting all over him), but Fred was the one I was particularly going after. I also gave reasons to potentially townread 8 people at the start of day 2... Which can technically still all be correct, but it likely contains exactly 1 scum in it. However, the actions of Enchant on Fred's wagon on day 2 made me very paranoid, as everything Enchant did concerning that wagon screamed "Enchant is scum who doesn't want his vote on town Fred at the end of the day", and this more than anything made me question my scumread of Fred - Not Fred's play itself. Enchant unvoted looking like he knew Fred was town, and his reason for unvoting directly contradicted the day 1 train. Because of the way the voting went overall, I started to think Unsure/Fred were probably either scum/scum or town/town. Greeting made me paranoid with his POE (It included someone I had essentially townlocked in Bugspray, and a second person I also thought was town in Lowell), and I made specific note of this later in the day. Multiple people were kinda all-in on Fred for a significant portion of the day... Including Prince, which marked the second straight day that looked bad.
Day 3 was a low-energy mess from the entire game. I wanted Enchant and Prince dead the most, by far. Like half the game got trains at random, until Enchant/Prince both had trains that stuck. Enchant's train (Like many trains before him on day 3, such as Owen's) looked so bad at the time that I essentially wanted nothing to do with it. This is when things started to actually move. Greeting felt like he suddenly went from townreading Enchant, and null reading Prince, to scumreading Enchant, and townreading Prince. The situation made me super paranoid, and I put Prince -2 (I've been openly paranoid of Greeting). I also noted that Prince had been mirroring Owen a lot, in a similar way to how Carcalilly did with DWLee in 2272. This made me think Owen was probably town if Prince was scum. However, when Mala popped in from her inactivity to vote Prince -1, I quickly got off because I trusted her even less. It was then that Andante and I drew attention to the fact that MT had been calling Enchant scum all day, but had flat out ignored ever talking about the train on Enchant. He was even defending Prince at this time, so it was a direct contradiction between his words and actions. This combination of factors made me identify Prince as a likely target for an ML, and I started to scrutinize the circumstances surrounding him further.
Malcolm eventually claimed.. What he claimed, and that he'd both been wasting a strong town role all game, and had also ruined the power it actually had by claiming it in full. I both thought he was probably scum because it would've been the most misplayed town role I've seen in years, and he did not seem to actually understand how his own claim worked. Even as the game walked him throw it, he continued down a line of logic that would do nothing but ruin town. I also felt that even if he was town, we were probably better off getting rid of him and the WIFOM hell that would come from him anyway. Nevertheless, I was persuaded to allow him to live for a day and ended up on Mala, who then claimed even night cop with a scan on Enchant, and then people rushed the hammer on Malcolm without actually thinking it through. I noticed that her claim and her behavior towards Malcolm contradicted, but the topic closed as I was writing the post to call this out, so I pointed it out first post on day 4 instead. Mala also went from pushing on Prince and being passive towards Malcolm to suddenly calling Malcolm super scummy as she claimed, without giving a reason for the change. In slight fairness, Mala was passively defending Enchant all day, so I feel that part of the claim does actually check out. I'm pretty clear that I still think Mala is scum, but I didn't feel like voting off an even night cop claim on day 4.
Shortly before Unsure was exposed as scum, I essentially came to the conclusion where Unsure essentially had to be scum, or our POE was so broken that we might as well throw everything out and restart from scratch. The sole exception was Lowell, who was most likely town in any scenario. The closest thing to an "occam's razor" POE we now have is Unsure+Mala+Enchant. I do not believe Mala and Prince are scum together based on Mala's actions towards him yesterday, but Mala being town also makes Enchant town, which means the paranoia that got me off of Prince is essentially lifted as his entire train is probably clean. If the solve is anything but those three, then someone who's been effectively towncleared must be scum. If Unsure was town, all hell broke loose as there was a chance there were at least 2 people in that pile. Contrary to what Unsure said though, it is not "lazy" to vote someone off just because they're not in your townpile. Games are often won by correctly townclearing people rather than catching people as scum. I've seen two recent examples of scum essentially getting POEd out of the game. "Townhunting" is a viable strategy for town.
And then I find out the person who asked me to do this hammered and locked the topic on me. Seriously that's fucking rude. Summarizing an entire game's worth of play takes time! ...May as well keep writing though.
Looking ahead to day 5 and beyond: Owen is almost certainly going to turn up dead night 4. Greeting looks a lot better on an Unsure scum flip. We now have two flipped scum that gunsmith could've caught, and Owen is even stronger than he originally claimed (Likely going to flip some sort of JOAT?). I don't think Mala's claim fits with what we know of this setup at all, as it feels like we have a lot of potential information already. If Bugspray doesn't randomly claim GS for no reason, or if MT actually uses his role, we could potentially have caught 2-3 scum just by scans alone. Since Godfather doesn't even exist, she's claiming a role that can definitively catch any member of scum, just like Malcolm could've. Owen's reaction to Malcolm simply made more sense than hers, and I think the cop claim probably just came on a whim.
Ultimately we are almost in the exact same boat as yesterday. Yesterday was knock off Unsure or go into our townpile. Today is knock off Mala or go into our townpile. If Mala is scum, tomorrow is knock off Enchant or go into our townpile. If she's town (Ok she's not town but still..)), it's Prince+One previously cleared player, and the game breaks wide open. We of course should wait for her to claim, but I don't want to comment on what she might claim today because I don't want to give scum any ideas.
Also, if Enchant is scum (Which I noted as plausible day 3 with Unsure when bickering with Greeting), we'd be in a situation where Greeting and I were both right on our #1 scumreads and basically just did "Spiderman pointing at Spiderman" with each other and it sounds funny to put it that way.
However, we might not want to take it too easy. Mala being scum is a safe assumption. Enchant being scum is less of a safe assumption, though I would heavily lean that way: Enchant was on the bad Bugspray countertrain day 1. His actions towards the Fred train looked terrible day 2. Interesting thing though: Basically all Mala's actions concerning him on day 3 basically tie her directly to him. Mala also replaced DWLee, who did absolutely nothing in the game but early vote Enchant for almost no reason, but made no actual effort to pursue a train on him. This being a lazy bus vote that makes no attempt to actually get him voted off makes sense from such an inactive player. This means that
both
players who have been in that slot reflect poorly on Enchant. Gera also pointed out just how bad this guy's voting history looked before we even knew MT was town. Unsure's post #1664 is not actually as good a look as it seems at first glance, either. Enchant had just one vote at the time, and 6 people had votes overall. Unsure put Enchant in a 3-way tie for first... at 2 votes, and talked to Greeting about putting him "-1". There was no serious reason given for making this vote, and he was drastically overselling how much impact this vote actually had. The only time Enchant was actually in the vote lead, he was still -3, and this did not last long.I doubt we have any more information to be getting out of our roles. As we have a clear vote today, our focus should be on what to do
after
today. I don't think spending 4 days talking about how we want to kill Mala today before we hammer her does us any favors. It probably is just Mala and Enchant, but if we don't discuss it now, we just have another person die before we do.Like, for example, Prince suggested very late yesterday that Mala->Enchant->Unsure->Vivax would be his go to order. Gera also previously suggested he scumread Vivax
more
than Enchant. Owen kinda didn't give us anything, though he was on Enchant day 3 before ending on MT....Ah screw it I'll spew some more.
InterestingFiire post shortly before replace:
Post Post #2321 (isolation #200) » Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:11 pm
Random thoughts:
Are scum keeping Crescent and Greeting both alive so they can be at each other throats or is there scum in there and they can't kill the other without it looking sus? What if its both. Scarier thought.
Crescent would have been who i killed days ago just because of the effort alone been putting in the game, but maybe scum see them as a detriment or useful tool.
And Greeting would have been who I killed night 1. Yes, they are leaving us both alive. I shaded him day 2, and scum has been playing this game on the back foot since day 1. This is one of those terrifying scenarios because scum has been shooting obvious town or just outright claimed power every night since night 1, which gives players like both of us reasons to still be alive. Honestly there are many things in this ISO that say town to me. The exchange with Enchant is one of the only bad things here. The constant frustrations seem genuine.
Gera feels completely different to how he felt in 2273... Though he kinda feels different to how he felt in 2272 also. In 2272 he really didn't do anything and in 2273 he had a lot of forced logic. I don't feel like that forced logic is coming from him here. He doesn't look like he's playing afraid, and he doesn't feel like he's tired out like he was in 2273. Gera also came to a conclusion all the way back on post #1678 based on vote history that looks strong now: Vivax-Enchant-Unsure.
For Greeting to be scum means he bussed both day 1 and day 2. It takes someone whos brazen as fuck to do that. Moving on. Wouldn't consider this guy until a possible final 3 at best, and I won't still be alive that long anyway.
Lowell and Owen are virtually locktowned at this point (Owen gets shot anyway). Moving on.
Prince hasn't done much that looks good... But does Mala really hardcore bus this guy like that if Enchant is town? Even if he dies there, she looks better for a while, but Unsure probably gets murdered next for being on Enchant, and then it's just her vs. 10 town players, many of whom still look better than her. I haven't seen anything that suggests she's strong enough to avoid getting voted off for 5 consecutive days under these circumstances.
And that does just leave... The totally OCD Vivax who I townread on page 1 of the entire game. There is one interesting thing in this ISO from yesterday: Vivax shaded me for thinking Andante was a bad train. I thought Andante's train was awful
regardless of her alignment
and correctly guessed her alignment based on seeing a lot of myself in her reaction. Bad trains do occasionally kill scum, and I've already seen it happen once on MS. It doesn't mean the train wasn't terrible - It means it was lucky. Also, I counted. This guy has voted an insane 42[/i[ times in 349 posts (1 per 8.3 posts)
Like, I'm pretty much exactly where Prince said he was. If it's not Enchant, it's... Vivax? It's just Enchant, right? Unless scum felt so desperate that they had Mala superbus Prince with basically no endgame except maybe just hoping Prince didn't die from -1 there.
Honestly who gets what role is often super influential in games. VT is the best role in the game. I'm assuming Greeting is a VT like I am, and when the strongest players get VT, it basically turns them into de facto power roles. I've seen games where scum just get destroyed based on the layout of the roles. Also, this is my 5th game on MS, and my 5th VT, it has been a glorious start~
You guys can blame FK for this. Half the wall was written before I knew the day was even over... And then I just kept going.. And going. I was off Monday and then the day was over almost as soon as I woke up.
Mala is functionally confirmed scum (We've now had two roles that GS could have caught flip+MT+Owen that could outright catch any scum, possibly twice over. The behavior of both Mala
Oh and with Owen not dying this technically changes a bit, but it's still impossible for both Mala and Owen to be town anyway. It's just too much.
Like, I'm pretty much exactly where Prince said he was. If it's not Enchant, it's... Vivax? It's just Enchant, right? Unless scum felt so desperate that they had Mala superbus Prince with basically no endgame except maybe just hoping Prince didn't die from -1 there.
Honestly who gets what role is often super influential in games. VT is the best role in the game. I'm assuming Greeting is a VT like I am, and when the strongest players get VT, it basically turns them into de facto power roles. I've seen games where scum just get destroyed based on the layout of the roles. Also, this is my 5th game on MS, and my 5th VT, it has been a glorious start~
You guys can blame FK for this. Half the wall was written before I knew the day was even over... And then I just kept going.. And going. I was off Monday and then the day was over almost as soon as I woke up.
tl;dr version
Mala is functionally confirmed scum (We've now had two roles that GS could have caught flip+MT+Owen that could outright catch any scum, possibly twice over. The behavior of both Mala
and
DWLee reflects badly on Enchant, as well as... Basically his vote pattern virtually all game (Textbook scum movements towards Fred on day 2). If it's somehow not those two, it's... Like.. Maybe Vivax or something? My TR of Fire/Gera/Greeting are stronger than my TR of Vivax.Oh and with Owen not dying this technically changes a bit, but it's still impossible for both Mala and Owen to be town anyway. It's just too much.
