Open 861: The Turing Test [game over]

[furtiveglance]

It seems like most of us have made our minds up one way or another.

[furtiveglance]

Time to lock it in, I want to see the flips and go again.

[furtiveglance]

Dann mafia btw, I don't think the current gamestate or votes points to kuti mafia.

[Loki Dokie]

It seems like most of us have made our minds up one way or another.

But what I said makes sense, doesn’t it?

The whole wifom case on Dann is that Kuti if scum is likely the weakest member of the scumteam and I’m arguing that if my reads are correct, that isn’t necessarily the case.

Do you think Dann loses against any of Vulture/RR/Roden because I really don’t but scum!Dann could actually lose to town!Kuti because he was a total null read for me.

I can tell you that I would not be voting Dann against any of those three, so my theory is Kuti if scum, was not in fact scum’s weakest member but actually their strongest.

The wifom argument literally hinges on Kuti if scum being the weakest slot and I don’t think that’s the case. I wouldn’t have likely been interested in yeeting either of them d2 and certainly none of those three > Dann in any d2 test.

[Loki Dokie]

Dann mafia btw, I don't think the current gamestate or votes points to kuti mafia.

Explain? Who is your PoE and why is my argument not good?

[Loki Dokie]

Eta to 1253:

I mean I very much doubt I would be voting to yeet Dann > any of Vulture/RR/Roden in any d2 test but would probably be wifomming that even harder if possible.

[furtiveglance]

Dann mafia btw, I don't think the current gamestate or votes points to kuti mafia.

Explain? Who is your PoE and why is my argument not good?

What's your argument? That Dannflor beats some other players? How can you even predict that, I think there would be some heated debates either way.

My POE is basically you/GL/Ari as town with primary suspicion on Bell and RR I guess.

[Loki Dokie]

Profuse apologies to Kuti for accidentally misgendering THEM.

[Loki Dokie]

Dann mafia btw, I don't think the current gamestate or votes points to kuti mafia.

Explain? Who is your PoE and why is my argument not good?

What's your argument? That Dannflor beats some other players? How can you even predict that, I think there would be some heated debates either way.

My POE is basically you/GL/Ari as town with primary suspicion on Bell and RR I guess.

I agree with your town core. I also think you’re town and probably fire as well. And regardless of Dann’s alignment, Vivax looks like town from his “disgusting” comment. So my argument is, assuming Kuti is scum here, who amongst your srs would be the most likely to beat town!Dann?

[furtiveglance]

Dann mafia btw, I don't think the current gamestate or votes points to kuti mafia.

Explain? Who is your PoE and why is my argument not good?

What's your argument? That Dannflor beats some other players? How can you even predict that, I think there would be some heated debates either way.

My POE is basically you/GL/Ari as town with primary suspicion on Bell and RR I guess.

I agree with your town core. I also think you’re town and probably fire as well. And regardless of Dann’s alignment, Vivax looks like town from his “disgusting” comment. So my argument is, assuming Kuti is scum here, who amongst your srs would be the most likely to beat town!Dann?

Maybe someone like Vivax because they have that weird associative. What are you getting at?

[Vivax]

In bad shape today.
My shoulder is killing me, if I could pin something responsible, I'd wish it'd go up in flames.

Furtive glance and anyone else,

Want to share your old games so I can get a feel of how you play as either alignments

:curtain:

I don't really like this

kutiplz have you gotten any value out of reading cold meta in the past?

Worth pointing out that kuti's post directed a question at FG specifically, and Dann didn't like the post

[Loki Dokie]

In bad shape today.
My shoulder is killing me, if I could pin something responsible, I'd wish it'd go up in flames.

Furtive glance and anyone else,

Want to share your old games so I can get a feel of how you play as either alignments

:curtain:

I don't really like this

kutiplz have you gotten any value out of reading cold meta in the past?

Worth pointing out that kuti's post directed a question at FG specifically, and Dann didn't like the post

I don’t really see why furtive being named specifically has much to do with it?

[Loki Dokie]

Dann mafia btw, I don't think the current gamestate or votes points to kuti mafia.

Explain? Who is your PoE and why is my argument not good?

What's your argument? That Dannflor beats some other players? How can you even predict that, I think there would be some heated debates either way.

My POE is basically you/GL/Ari as town with primary suspicion on Bell and RR I guess.

I agree with your town core. I also think you’re town and probably fire as well. And regardless of Dann’s alignment, Vivax looks like town from his “disgusting” comment. So my argument is, assuming Kuti is scum here, who amongst your srs would be the most likely to beat town!Dann?

Maybe someone like Vivax because they have that weird associative. What are you getting at?

I think it’s pretty clear isn’t it? I don’t think any of Vulture, RR, Roden likely be Dann in a d2 test - obviously assuming I have the correct PoE here and Dann is town of course.

My argument is that if my PoE is correct, then it likely points to Dann!town/Kuti!scum because I don’t think any of those 3 beat Dann here.

Do you disagree?

[Vivax]

In bad shape today.
My shoulder is killing me, if I could pin something responsible, I'd wish it'd go up in flames.

Furtive glance and anyone else,

Want to share your old games so I can get a feel of how you play as either alignments

:curtain:

I don't really like this

kutiplz have you gotten any value out of reading cold meta in the past?

Worth pointing out that kuti's post directed a question at FG specifically, and Dann didn't like the post

I don’t really see why furtive being named specifically has much to do with it?

Samesies, which is why this post will be important once we know the alignments

[furtiveglance]

Dann mafia btw, I don't think the current gamestate or votes points to kuti mafia.

Explain? Who is your PoE and why is my argument not good?

What's your argument? That Dannflor beats some other players? How can you even predict that, I think there would be some heated debates either way.

My POE is basically you/GL/Ari as town with primary suspicion on Bell and RR I guess.

I agree with your town core. I also think you’re town and probably fire as well. And regardless of Dann’s alignment, Vivax looks like town from his “disgusting” comment. So my argument is, assuming Kuti is scum here, who amongst your srs would be the most likely to beat town!Dann?

Maybe someone like Vivax because they have that weird associative. What are you getting at?

I think it’s pretty clear isn’t it? I don’t think any of Vulture, RR, Roden likely be Dann in a d2 test - obviously assuming I have the correct PoE here and Dann is town of course.

My argument is that if my PoE is correct, then it likely points to Dann!town/Kuti!scum because I don’t think any of those 3 beat Dann here.

Do you disagree?

I disagree yeah, Idk who I'd vote in Dann/Vulture or RR or Roden if we hadn't got this test, it's hard to imagine. I'm just looking at kuti's ISO and it looks pretty innocent.

[Aristeia]

the way I think about the scum team win condition is;

they all have to get through the gauntlet

eventually

like regardless of what the scum team is - the way they win the game is to get the town to flip the other person - which more or less means the scum players have to each pass through the gauntlet unless they win early, and it means the scum team necessarily must be revealed over time - similar to perpetual mylo except the scum have some extra agency in terms of getting to pick the gladiate.

The best way for the scum to do this is to set up associative pushes that look good on D1 so that as they are flipped, one flip begets another.

Like let's say someone like Bell who is pretty bad at scum[no offense Bell] is on the scum team.

The scum team would necessarily see Bell as somewhat of a liability, he basically is unable to replicate his town!meta when he's scum, he's just kind of a sitting duck.

So the best way to cash that liability into something good for the scum team is to push him D1, cash him in for towncred early - Bell even had the early vote on Kitty to establish distancing that way so that if Bell goes down Kitty gets somewhat reflected Towncred.

It feels like the whole bus Bell for Cred plan didn't work out for Dann because Bell wasn't as obvscum as people required for him to actually go down and eventually kitty became more or less inevitable.

Once Kitty went down and scored a point for town, the calculus regarding Bell kind of changes - it's not really viable to bus him at that point because going down 2-0 is basically a death sentence, so the scum have to get him through the gauntlet

somehow

.

There's two ways Bell/Dann!scum can go as a team.

Bell first and then Dann

or Dann first and then Bell.


It feels incredibly hard for Bell -> Dann to work out for the scum because it would look very strange for Dann to suddenly flip his read of Bell on a dime, can he get away with readflipping, getting Bell home and then escape intact himself? I think that's very tricky for him to do. Remember he has to be able to navigate that readflip without anything from Bell

and

survive with enough towncred to get himself out safely.

Otherwise he's stuck double-bussing and playing from 0-2 down which is kind of difficult even against a town that's flipping coins atp.

Dann flipping first however would generate towncred for Bell because it creates distance since Dann was trying to yeet Bell on D1. It's a much cleaner transition for the scum team and I think it just makes sense strategically as a play than the other way around.

Now in the Town!Dann Scum!Bell world; you'd have Bell deciding to hardbus Kitty d1, and then hardbus Kuti d2 and it feels super ~throwy~ ? like the play is so bad for scum I just can't see scum Bell deciding to play that way.

[GuiltyLion]

hmm hmm hmm

sleeping on it and seeing fire's latest posts has lowered my confidence in voting Dann

however I still have a hangup in that let's say kuti is maf and Dann is town and scum wanted us to WIFOM ourselves into voting Dann

who is actually scum pushing us towards that, if anyone? it kinda feels like Bell/Rat are just sitting back and not really advocating for anything, so I could see them as kuti partners in a town!Dann world. Maybe one Vulture/Roden being the remaining scum? but Roden's D2 is a fairly audacious move if kuti is actually maf, especially if the plan is to actually sacrifice kuti and go down 2-0. It's a bit odd that Roden has decreased in presence as the day has gone on, kinda maybe feels like S-S with kuti where Roden wants to look good off their flip while not actually doing a

ton

to make it really happen

p-edit haven't read that post yet

[GuiltyLion]

hardbus Kuti d2

oops somehow I missed that Bell was voting kuti, I thought it was Vivax and Roden, not Vivax and Bell

[Loki Dokie]

The problem that I see Ari, is your theory for Dann!scum is hinging on Bell!scum but what if Bell is town here, how does that impact your theory?

[Loki Dokie]

hmm hmm hmm

sleeping on it and seeing fire's latest posts has lowered my confidence in voting Dann

however I still have a hangup in that let's say kuti is maf and Dann is town and scum wanted us to WIFOM ourselves into voting Dann

who is actually scum pushing us towards that, if anyone? it kinda feels like Bell/Rat are just sitting back and not really advocating for anything, so I could see them as kuti partners in a town!Dann world. Maybe one Vulture/Roden being the remaining scum? but Roden's D2 is a fairly audacious move if kuti is actually maf, especially if the plan is to actually sacrifice kuti and go down 2-0. It's a bit odd that Roden has decreased in presence as the day has gone on, kinda maybe feels like S-S with kuti where Roden wants to look good off their flip while not actually doing a

ton

to make it really happen

p-edit haven't read that post yet

Roden being inactive is nia. He was very inactive in Terminator and PYP - both town.

[GuiltyLion]

Bell is virtually my most confident scumread lol, I almost have the same number of posts as him and I barely played last weekend, that is a huge problem

last time we played together when Bell was town and he was suspicious of me he was bragging about his ability to outpost me

so yeah Ari's point makes sense, I think I just wanna vote Dann here

also thinking about Roden saying Bell was town on D1 for posting a lot, @Roden are you still thinking that?

[GuiltyLion]

Apologies.

VOTE: Kutplz

Ultimately I’m incredibly conflicted on Dann, and I don’t want to embarrass myself by misreading him. Made town posts. Made scum posts. I don’t eee much like an agenda, even though his pushes felt agendey he *sort of* kept his way of treating people the same. It’s not great but he seems to have used his yardstick about the same for everyone based on how they played. It’s terrible because it feels less like a read than watching someone play off a policy. But at least he had a policy. Inconsistency isn’t a scum tell, nor is consistency.
I’m not satisfied, but life happens.

this also just strikes me as a tremendously awkward uncomfortable scummy vote

[Aristeia]

also fire I think a lot of your arguments for why Kuti is scum is focussed on Kuti not playing the game but that's not actually like scum indicative imo,

they're clearly mostly afk this game but that's because this site isn't really their home site - like when I play on MU I basically afk too because I'm not very used to logging onto that site and I forget about the game there. Which I think just shows they didn't actually get too involved into the game here, it's actually more likely to come from kuti being town because I think a kuti with a team of scummers chatting with them about what to do would feel more committed and involved than what we saw here.

on two points that I thought were more townie for Kuti;

(1) I think Kuti would've leaned more into buddying with me if they were actually scum because we have played quite a few games together on MU - it feels like they didn't really ingratiate themselves with me at all and in my experience they have more of a social aspect to their scum game.

(2) the sense I get from rereading Kuti's iso is that they're just genuinely very lost and kind of stumbling from one spot to another and saying whatever is on their mind? It doesn't feel like premeditated or planned and I don't think they're getting game state information from a scum thread.

it just feels like kuti's stereotypical surface level LHF being set up to get an easy point and I kind of think scum

need

a win now.

If anything I agree with Fire's take that scum have every incentive to lob wifom balls with Scummy Scum paired with Townie Townie in order to trick us but I think they throw a fastball down the middle first to set up the wifom later.[yes baseball analogy I am a geek]

[Aristeia]

The problem that I see Ari, is your theory for Dann!scum is hinging on Bell!scum but what if Bell is town here, how does that impact your theory?

Bell is incredibly easy to read in that he has a hard volume tell.

If he's not posting, he's scum.

[GuiltyLion]

[yes baseball analogy I am a geek]

go Orioles