Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame

[catboi]

Vote Count 2.06

Your dreams are coming true
They said they wouldn't do

Malakittens (3):

MegAzumarill, Fredrick A Campbell, Not Known 15

Elements (3):

Gamma Emerald, Malakittens, Roden

Roden (1):

MathBlade

Not Voting (1):

Elements

With 8 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is October 7 at 9:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-07 21:00:00)

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I actually am still not sure about Not Known 15's allignment because I think that 伊's posts are the sort I myself have no problem making as mafia.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Actually, here's something that needs to be thought about before the deadline.

Approximately how many of the players do we need to be certain that Elements is town for us to decide to execute someone other than Elements?

Mechanically, this number is 5 or more as that is the number that will allow all the players to decide to execute a player other than Elements.

[Not Known 15]

I actually am still not sure about Not Known 15's allignment because I think that 伊's posts are the sort I myself have no problem making as mafia.

To be clear I think Elements is town but I am not like OMG scream it sure.

Can you compress your towncase on elements into a single post?

[MathBlade]

Lots of premises that lead to vibes that the probability is more likely than not that Elements is town but it doesn’t meet Math go yell levels.

[Not Known 15]

And the case on Malakittens?

[MathBlade]

Not exposing us to more risk than absolutely necessary and mutually agreed upon.

[Not Known 15]

Not exposing us to more risk than absolutely necessary and mutually agreed upon.

What's more risky: Forcing a claim that doesn't cause much trouble in 2/3 of the possible setups(JK is likely useless after CL has been limmed, which needs to happen until day 3 pretty much every time anyways, and an Unrecruitable Townie claim this day means the other one claims, and then we have either the exact scumteam including 1 PR convert or two townies) or not eliminating correctly if we know that the CL absolutely CAN recruit next night (unless interfered with) and that this will extremely likely result in lim CL or lose, and does not allow a near autowin in the majority of the situations.

[Not Known 15]

Limming CL now is an autowin in the cop setup without a cop convert
Limming CL now is not an autowin in the JK setup because the JK cannot be trusted, but 6:1 Nightless is still very good.
Limming CL now is an autowin in the 2x Unrecruitable Townie setup.

If we get to Day 3, unless there was no convert on Night 1 and/or Night 2, we have 3 cult trying to stop a CL lim.
Including one that was town and might be trusted.
Limming CL then is likely a win in the cop setup if the cop isn't converted,
but in the JK or converted person setup, it's not so good.
And 2x Unrecruitable is no longer an autowin and actually allows an Unrecruitable fakeclaim.

[MathBlade]

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

[MathBlade]

Limming CL now is an autowin in the cop setup without a cop convert
Limming CL now is not an autowin in the JK setup because the JK cannot be trusted, but 6:1 Nightless is still very good.
Limming CL now is an autowin in the 2x Unrecruitable Townie setup.

If we get to Day 3, unless there was no convert on Night 1 and/or Night 2, we have 3 cult trying to stop a CL lim.
Including one that was town and might be trusted.
Limming CL then is likely a win in the cop setup if the cop isn't converted,
but in the JK or converted person setup, it's not so good.
And 2x Unrecruitable is no longer an autowin and actually allows an Unrecruitable fakeclaim.

None of this is relevant to Mala over elements

It’s mechanical garbage

Why are you forcing something dangerously close to claim?

If you continue to push this issue without stopping and thinking I can and will tunnel you.

[MathBlade]

To be clear some/most of it is likely true

It’s garbage in the sheer fact it’s antitown and doesn’t help.

[Not Known 15]

To be clear some/most of it is likely true

It’s garbage in the sheer fact it’s antitown and doesn’t help.

You said that we shouldn't switch to Mala because claims would be terrible.
I refuted it, and you say that some/most of my refutation is likely true....
and then you say "it's antitown and doesn't help".
How does that make sense? If my refutation can help us go past your refuted argument that making Mala claim would be not worth the risk if we aren't absolutely sure that elements was town then that helps town.

[Elements]

Anyone else think that Fred is just sort of sitting here agreeing with things but not actually doing anything beyond that or is that just me being tunnel visioned?

[Not Known 15]

Anyone else think that Fred is just sort of sitting here agreeing with things but not actually doing anything beyond that or is that just me being tunnel visioned?

It's not just you but it isn't scum indicative. Not with his POE.

[MathBlade]

To be clear some/most of it is likely true

It’s garbage in the sheer fact it’s antitown and doesn’t help.

You said that we shouldn't switch to Mala because claims would be terrible.
I refuted it, and you say that some/most of my refutation is likely true....
and then you say "it's antitown and doesn't help".
How does that make sense? If my refutation can help us go past your refuted argument that making Mala claim would be not worth the risk if we aren't absolutely sure that elements was town then that helps town.

You did not “refute it”

You said a lot of irrelevant mech spec.

The irrelevant mech spec is antitown and causes apathy.

You just ignored my points and said a lot of mech that didn’t address the heart of what I am saying.

I encourage you to step away and reread what I said.

[Not Known 15]

To be clear some/most of it is likely true

It’s garbage in the sheer fact it’s antitown and doesn’t help.

You said that we shouldn't switch to Mala because claims would be terrible.
I refuted it, and you say that some/most of my refutation is likely true....
and then you say "it's antitown and doesn't help".
How does that make sense? If my refutation can help us go past your refuted argument that making Mala claim would be not worth the risk if we aren't absolutely sure that elements was town then that helps town.

You did not “refute it”

You said a lot of irrelevant mech spec.

The irrelevant mech spec is antitown and causes apathy.

You just ignored my points and said a lot of mech that didn’t address the heart of what I am saying.

I encourage you to step away and reread what I said.

That mech spec says why switching to Mala is not as a great risk as Math claims it to be.
That Math dismisses mech spec like this is not his town meta.
I personally witnessed it as his scum meta, though. When he was desperate. And Math being desperate and scum can mean only one thing. Mala is CL.

[MegAzumarill]

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that

The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out

[MegAzumarill]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

[MathBlade]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that

The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out

Post says “Assume Mala VT”
Response says “Mala isn’t likely cult”

Response doesn’t go through my argument? Like this is a nonsequitur

[Not Known 15]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

Only at first glance.
If scum acts the CL dies tomorrow, then the scum dies the next, and Cult has a maximum of one person remaining.
4:1 Nightless, with a converted Cop/JK is the best they can get there.
4:1 Nightless Vanilla has a 60% town win rate.
If scum doesn't act the CL has a 50% chance to die today and a 50% chance to not die today and probably not tomorrow.
We cannot distinguish between that and T/T. This doesn't help us!

[Gamma Emerald]

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

hmmm why?

[Not Known 15]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that

The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out

Post says “Assume Mala VT”
Response says “Mala isn’t likely cult”

Response doesn’t go through my argument? Like this is a nonsequitur

Yes, yes. I mean there is also that - if Mala is VT - then the scumteam knows who is VT and who not.... except there is this:
If Mala is VT, and there are two unrecruitables, and scum looks in non-VT then that's good for us.
If Mala is VT, and there is a JK, then, unless the JK stopped/stops 2 recruits, tomorrow is the last day to catch CL and the JK isn't useful after that time.
If Mala is VT, and there is a Cop, then the a chance of conversion will have gone up.
In total, there is obviously a risk, but not as bad as Math claims.

[MegAzumarill]

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

hmmm why?

I mean if she goes unclaimed why would they over a more townread player

[MegAzumarill]

So if she does end up claiming VT it's not like she's deawing the convert away if she didn't claim and is town.