House of the Dragon - Game Over!

[fireisredsir]

i think if we're in the datisi town world we win and this doesn't really hurt us that much

i think the datisi scum world potentially becomes a concern sooner than i originally thought

the biggest point for me is that none of the checks have died. i think scum would have to basically be throwing in a town datisi world for that to happen

[Titus]

I'm starting to think we fucked up bad by putting Titus as LC

Imagine the world where Datisi/Titus/mastina are scum. They are close to a scum king, a fake guilty tomorrow may be game winning already

Posts like this make me not want to follow you LLD.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

i think if we're in the datisi town world we win and this doesn't really hurt us that much

i think the datisi scum world potentially becomes a concern sooner than i originally thought

the biggest point for me is that none of the checks have died. i think scum would have to basically be throwing in a town datisi world for that to happen

This is precisely my world view. I am not the best at... Being concise so this helps. This is where I am.

[Titus]

i think if we're in the datisi town world we win and this doesn't really hurt us that much

i think the datisi scum world potentially becomes a concern sooner than i originally thought

the biggest point for me is that none of the checks have died. i think scum would have to basically be throwing in a town datisi world for that to happen

That's the rub though, I don't have a good response to what scum are doing beyond raging.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'm starting to think we fucked up bad by putting Titus as LC

Imagine the world where Datisi/Titus/mastina are scum. They are close to a scum king, a fake guilty tomorrow may be game winning already

Posts like this make me not want to follow you LLD.

What am I meant to do about it? If Datisi flips town as you predict this take won't matter. And if they flip scum... Its reasonable to suspect people who were checked.

[GuiltyLion]

That's the rub though, I don't have a good response to what scum are doing beyond raging.

When you don't have a reasonable guess at what scum is doing, it's wise to hedge your bets in case someone you have been trusting has actually deceived you

[furtiveglance]

i think if we're in the datisi town world we win and this doesn't really hurt us that much

i think the datisi scum world potentially becomes a concern sooner than i originally thought

the biggest point for me is that none of the checks have died. i think scum would have to basically be throwing in a town datisi world for that to happen

That's the rub though, I don't have a good response to what scum are doing beyond raging.

Man's not raging, man's legit baffled as to why certain man are scumreading man

[Lady Lambdadelta]

i think if we're in the datisi town world we win and this doesn't really hurt us that much

i think the datisi scum world potentially becomes a concern sooner than i originally thought

the biggest point for me is that none of the checks have died. i think scum would have to basically be throwing in a town datisi world for that to happen

That's the rub though, I don't have a good response to what scum are doing beyond raging.

Okay but I'm not scum, I'm not raging and more importantly I am the one accepting both worlds (Datisi town, Datisi scum)

As far as I can tell your plan for If Datisi Scum is "dont worry about it" but I'm pretty worried about it.

[fireisredsir]

sometimes i want games to be easy so much that i start believing that they are

they almost never are

im a little too willing to handwave away valid concerns and push and suppress them down to the back of my mind and hope i don't have to worry about them

it's a weakness i think, and it's lost town several games. i hope im not being dumb here and overcorrecting in trying to counter that tendency

[GuiltyLion]

if Datisi is town we might feel a lil dumb but then we'd have a

confirmed

town cop, there's no way scum could push to get rid of Titus in that world and it'd be likely she'd hit on a red pretty much immediately if the POE is accurate

mastina wants to hand wave away all the valid worries about "what if Datisi is scum" with this idea that scum could not have possibly intentionally no-killed last night because of the advantage of an extra lim. extra lim doesn't matter because of duels. and I've now become paranoid that if

both

mastina and Titus are scum (not the most likely world, but certainly possible), then scum have a strong foothold into the King position that is almost unreversible with a few fewer players and certainly a better mech advantage than one fewer lim. So it's far safer to be playing around the Datisi scum world right now, than later.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

sometimes i want games to be easy so much that i start believing that they are

they almost never are

im a little too willing to handwave away valid concerns and push and suppress them down to the back of my mind and hope i don't have to worry about them

it's a weakness i think, and it's lost town several games. i hope im not being dumb here and overcorrecting in trying to counter that tendency

My opinion is that we are hedging against a bad world but giving up very little to do so. I don't think this would be considered overcorrecting, I mean... The math is all sort of there.

[Titus]

That's the rub though, I don't have a good response to what scum are doing beyond raging.

When you don't have a reasonable guess at what scum is doing, it's wise to hedge your bets in case someone you have been trusting has actually deceived you

Which is why the lim the cop at elo plus one day exists...

I don't see what limming Datisi gets us.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

That's the rub though, I don't have a good response to what scum are doing beyond raging.

When you don't have a reasonable guess at what scum is doing, it's wise to hedge your bets in case someone you have been trusting has actually deceived you

Which is why the lim the cop at elo plus one day exists...

I don't see what limming Datisi gets us.

Titus can you really not see how having 1 elimination left when cop flips scum is worse than having 3, and how if we will have to test Datisi at some point regarsless it is better to do it now?

[GuiltyLion]

That's the rub though, I don't have a good response to what scum are doing beyond raging.

When you don't have a reasonable guess at what scum is doing, it's wise to hedge your bets in case someone you have been trusting has actually deceived you

Which is why the lim the cop at elo plus one day exists...

I don't see what limming Datisi gets us.

I'm confused you don't see, because this has been walked through several times over the past few pages

if Datisi is scum, "what we get" is very very obvious, yes?

if Datisi is town, we lose Datisi, but we replace him with you as the new 100% indisputably conftown cop-confirmed cop, so mechanically we've lost nothing. We also

gain

conftown status on Mastina and LLD. Mastina wants to pretend y'all are

already

conftown, but the fact is objectively you are not.

The only expense is we've spent a lim (fortunately we have an extra, as mastina has already graciously pointed out!) on town. But I think that's fairly likely to happen if we lim furtive anyways, so better to give us additional conftowns and resolve the possibility of the world where we're most likely to lose the game.

what here doesn't make sense? please explain

[GuiltyLion]

lim the cop is supposed to be followed in open setups where the cop is un-CC'd and effectively conftown.

Datisi has cop

abilities

but is not conftown at all. You can't just blindly trust him here and it's dangerous to do so.

[GuiltyLion]

wait, sorry, I derped, in an open setup you don't need to paranoia lim the cop, so my point is invalid

still tho, we have additional mech at play here (King, Prince, Kingsguard, council, etc) that makes it dangerous to assume town will have traditional numbers/counterplay. if Datisi is scum it's almost a certainty that one of his checks in Mastina/Titus is scum as well on the council

[Firebringer]

still zero scum case on datisi.
Is this such a big ask for someone to provide me a look at datisi posts and tell me the scum motivation going on that i haven't seen.
I want someone to tell me this isn't just a paranoia/mechanic push.

No one is willing to do it. Its just 'this is optimal play'. That aint cutting it for me right now. Can someone scum case datisi

[Firebringer]

So its a simple follow the cop world with a town cop, and scum have been leaving the cop and all of his checks alive, instead trying to shoot FB or fireisred last night

we have been protecting the cop until yesterday.
for all scum knew one of datisi checks has also been protected (they weren't, but for all we know they don't know that).
To go and say 'its weird that dats and all the cop clears are alive' is like....That is the point of us having the JK/Doc guard them? What even is this argument.

Its just paranoia. Thats all there is to all of this. And we know scum have made what we all thought were questionable kills.

Ugh. Why do i bother.

[Firebringer]

i want to go back to basics.
Who is genuinely scumhunting and who isn't.
Whose reads thought processes make sense from town pov. Whose doesn't.
I am not engaging in hypothetical situations for remainder of this game day. SOMEONE HOLD ME TO THIS.
I am just going to analyze posts and thoughts and see if they are genuine or make sense.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

still zero scum case on datisi.
Is this such a big ask for someone to provide me a look at datisi posts and tell me the scum motivation going on that i haven't seen.
I want someone to tell me this isn't just a paranoia/mechanic push.

No one is willing to do it. Its just 'this is optimal play'. That aint cutting it for me right now. Can someone scum case datisi

What are the chances that even if I provide you possible scum motivation in Datisi's play and choices this game so far you change your vote?

Have you considered that maybe it's not "no one cases Datisi so I don't change my mind" but rather "no one believes FB will ever be swayed so no one will do this for you"?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

i want to go back to basics.
Who is genuinely scumhunting and who isn't.
Whose reads thought processes make sense from town pov. Whose doesn't.
I am not engaging in hypothetical situations for remainder of this game day. SOMEONE HOLD ME TO THIS.
I am just going to analyze posts and thoughts and see if they are genuine or make sense.

Why is it after a game of playing insider baseball with your team over there you are only NOW deciding not to do mechanical play?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Is it because for once you aren't in control? For once you have to consider following someone else's plan?

Show me you give enough of a shit to even consider if my plan makes mathematical sense and I'll consider believeing that you have any chance of changing your vote.

[Firebringer]

I apologize. I should make it clear when im saying i want a scum datisi case. I want people to proclaim it so i can analyze if they believe it or not.

No, I don't think i will be swayed. I am not asking someone to sway me right now.
My purpose of asking this is two fold:
1) I want to see how much people actually believe datisi is scum because that will help me further read them better post datisi scum flip
2) I want to see where there COULD be gaps in my townread datisi that im blind to.

Do i think im going to be swayed? No. But right now this proposal of wagon has gotten people to jump on that is unreadable for the lot of them. I don't think i can figure out a motivation for this datisi push based on how its presented.

[Firebringer]

Is it because for once you aren't in control?

i dont know where this is coming from.
i haven't been in control of this game at all.
the only 'control' i think ive ever felt in this game was the ability to help council organize night actions last night.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Do you really think it would be hard for me to create this case for you?

But if your goal was never to br convinced but to rail against the move the whole time that case would bog things down wouldnt it?

You would have all kinds of things to argue about that arent solid mechanical play.

Town or scum I don't trust that this isn't a trap to stop this movement in a tar of redtape. I don't trust you actually want to engage FB. That's my issue.