OPEN 868 - Nobility and the Dark Angel | Endgame

[MegAzumarill]

You win when your faction holds a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring, and the Dark Angel isn't elected as noble.

So mafia can win with DA as well if they never get nobilized.

You win when there are no longer any threats to the town.

Town autoloses if we guess wrong today.

~N

This. And not guessing is 50/50 loss.

So I hate that I agree with Enchant.

But it might be smart to deny scum the dayvig.

We don’t have a choice because we lose if we’re wrong on DA today.

~N

Break it down?

If we DA a non DA not in Meg/Herta then scum have a 50/50

Can you highlight my mistake please?

What do you mean by 50/50? 50/50 chance of hitting DA? They know who it is (who wasn't nobled) If we kill the one we don't noble, it's a 0% chance because DA is dead.

[MathBlade]

You win when your faction holds a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring, and the Dark Angel isn't elected as noble.

So mafia can win with DA as well if they never get nobilized.

You win when there are no longer any threats to the town.

Town autoloses if we guess wrong today.

~N

This. And not guessing is 50/50 loss.

So I hate that I agree with Enchant.

But it might be smart to deny scum the dayvig.

We don’t have a choice because we lose if we’re wrong on DA today.

~N

Break it down?

If we DA a non DA not in Meg/Herta then scum have a 50/50

Can you highlight my mistake please?

What do you mean by 50/50? 50/50 chance of hitting DA? They know who it is (who wasn't nobled) If we kill the one we don't noble, it's a 0% chance because DA is dead.

It’s more if we didn’t noble either of you and killed neither

We could just noble someone not DA and elim one of them

Mainly this sucks to decide

[Polar Bear Express]

We shouldn’t rush into anything especially since not everyone’s posted yet. I want to hear from Eiralox (Johnny’s slot).

~N

[Polar Bear Express]

I'm kind of disappointed I don't really have much to do here.
Killing/Nobling between me and herta means finding mafia is kinda pointless for me today
Am wondering something

@MOD
Is the scum nightkill mandatory?

Gotta do stuff, I'll check back later

Why is finding mafia pointless?

~N

[Herta]

And actually if you heal me, I get two votes tomorrow right, so I think that's okay.

Nobles don't work in Elo. Just in case.

You're right I forgot about that.

Actually if I'm healed and we eliminate mafia today, I get two votes tomorrow, so that's okay. At worst mafia get a dayvig tomorrow, but that's after I'm elected noble.

[Herta]

I'm kind of disappointed I don't really have much to do here.
Killing/Nobling between me and herta means finding mafia is kinda pointless for me today
Am wondering something

@MOD
Is the scum nightkill mandatory?

Gotta do stuff, I'll check back later

Why is finding mafia pointless?

~N

It's not.

[Herta]

If N_M is town he needs to fess up on the hidden noble from yesterday.

[Herta]

Official Vote Count 2.04

Elimination

Freedom

(6): JunkoChan, Herta,

Not_Mafia

, Passenger, Enchant

<--HAMMER

Not Voting

(6): Elmo TeH AzN, Tapiocaphobe, Toto, JohnnyFarrar, Polar Bear Express, Freedom

BOLD

denotes double vote

Nobility

Elmo TeH AzN

(4): Toto, Freedom, JunkoChan, Polar Bear Express

Not_Mafia

(1): Not_Mafia

Not Voting

(6):Elmo TeH AzN, Tapiocaphobe, Herta, JohnnyFarrar, Passenger, Enchant

Deadline:

(expired on 2022-12-11 09:40:07).

Mod notes:

• The hidden noble's extra vote does not appear in the Vote Count.
  
• The elected noble counts as 2 players for the purpose of elimination requirements.
  
• With effectively 12 players alive, 7 votes are required for elimination.
  
• Will be looking for a replacement for JohnnyFarrar.
  
• An elimination has been achieved.

Enchant's claim of hidden noble on Day 2 was true.

[Polar Bear Express]

If N_M is town he needs to fess up on the hidden noble from yesterday.

+1

Agreed.

I could possibly be wrong on NM, since I think my initial tr on Enchant might be right after all but feel extremely confident on Math!town here.

I don’t like Mega trying to rush the day.

~N

[Polar Bear Express]

Official Vote Count 2.04

Elimination

Freedom

(6): JunkoChan, Herta,

Not_Mafia

, Passenger, Enchant

<--HAMMER

Not Voting

(6): Elmo TeH AzN, Tapiocaphobe, Toto, JohnnyFarrar, Polar Bear Express, Freedom

BOLD

denotes double vote

Nobility

Elmo TeH AzN

(4): Toto, Freedom, JunkoChan, Polar Bear Express

Not_Mafia

(1): Not_Mafia

Not Voting

(6):Elmo TeH AzN, Tapiocaphobe, Herta, JohnnyFarrar, Passenger, Enchant

Deadline:

(expired on 2022-12-11 09:40:07).

Mod notes:

• The hidden noble's extra vote does not appear in the Vote Count.
  
• The elected noble counts as 2 players for the purpose of elimination requirements.
  
• With effectively 12 players alive, 7 votes are required for elimination.
  
  
• Will be looking for a replacement for JohnnyFarrar.
  
• An elimination has been achieved.

Enchant's claim of hidden noble on Day 2 was true.

Great catch.

So Eira probably also HN.

~N

[MegAzumarill]

If N_M is town he needs to fess up on the hidden noble from yesterday.

+1

Agreed.

I could possibly be wrong on NM, since I think my initial tr on Enchant might be right after all but feel extremely confident on Math!town here.

I don’t like Mega trying to rush the day.

~N

I'm .....not

Not sure what gave you that impression.
I mean yeah I'm going to heal Herta because we just win if that happens, and vote since he's definitely not town fmpov.
Just trying to reason out the best solution of who should be in the lim pool.

Where do you see me rushing anyone?

[Herta]

and vote since he's definitely not town fmpov

From town meg's pov I'm exactly DA.

[Eiralox]

and vote since he's definitely not town fmpov

From town meg's pov I'm exactly DA.

Are you Dark Angel?

[Eiralox]

Polar Bear Express, why did Toto die?

[Eiralox]

My Likliest Scumteam: MegaAzumarill/Not_Mafia.

Dark Angel: ??????????????

Guess herta if PBE is telling truth and I'm on Mega/NotM. But herta.... sorta feels town so eh?

I'm still undecided on enchant. Felt weurd but can actually be coming from viewpoint of town concern.

Meh that's it for now? Yeah.

[MathBlade]

My Likliest Scumteam: MegaAzumarill/Not_Mafia.

Dark Angel: ??????????????

Guess herta if PBE is telling truth and I'm on Mega/NotM. But herta.... sorta feels town so eh?

I'm still undecided on enchant. Felt weurd but can actually be coming from viewpoint of town concern.

Meh that's it for now? Yeah.

Do you agree with the premise that DA is in Meg/Herta?

[Eiralox]

My Likliest Scumteam: MegaAzumarill/Not_Mafia.

Dark Angel: ??????????????

Guess herta if PBE is telling truth and I'm on Mega/NotM. But herta.... sorta feels town so eh?

I'm still undecided on enchant. Felt weurd but can actually be coming from viewpoint of town concern.

Meh that's it for now? Yeah.

Do you agree with the premise that DA is in Meg/Herta?

mechanically the only other option would be: PBE is lying about Hidden Nobled.

So considering all of us nobled the only picks for DA are PBE, Mega and Herta.

I kinda still jigged towards Toto as scum/DA so on that front the kill makes certain analyses much easier.

So simply put if either Meg or Herta ain't DA then Polar Bear is.

Would PBE scum claim hidden noble? Why?
Would PBE DA claim hidden noble? The why is obvious, but why risk it? Cos if PBE fakeclaim then either they are scum with N_M or taking a very great risk as to when third hidden noble is gonna appear, if they not scum.

As it still makes little sense imo, esp. this late in game, to hidden noble scum before possible dark angel, fore now i'll trust PBE.

[Herta]

Math has a problem.

[MathBlade]

Math has a problem.

I do? What problem is that?

[Herta]

Everyone agrees the DA is between the two of us, Herta and Meg. So we kill one and noble the other.

If we noble the DA gg.

If we kill the DA and the other is town, tomorrow is limlo at 3:2.

If we kill the DA and the other is scum, tomorrow is 4:1.

I will vote either to heal me and kill Meg or to heal Meg and kill me.

[Eiralox]

What keeps nagging is toto kill. Were they sure PBE is da?I y narrow da selection down so radically by killimg unobled while also nobling pbe,assuming pbe town?


Cos pbe town = scum likely knew if they got da wrong it gonna be 50/50. Unless Mega is scum, then scum had a mere 3 picks for da. So mega killing toto could be weird but not yet a dealbreaker.


Maybe scum fear of town autowin trumped scum desire for daykill and they went for pbe as most likely da, and toto maybe as a 'could be da lets be safe' or other reason.

I dont ussually do night analyses but dis time round im real curious

[Eiralox]

So..... could be that one unobled(pbe, herta. Meg) in scum.

Two unobled would be... herta/pbe, but then, why enoble pbe? Why kill toto? Herta/pbe would know da in meg/toto. Herta/meg team doesnt fit unless pbe is lying. If pbe is lying herta/meg scum get them tonight, so for now herta/pbe a more solid pairing in this regard.

So the other poss. is two nobled scum. (Enchant/nm or whatevs)



.they have choice of four possible da, knowing that once elo da is out so they basically have 1-2nightto get daykill. So they go for pbe and toto hopoing at least one is da? Why not da mega/herta tho? Was poss for that pbe da when elmo died so eh.


Curently I think 1 noble/1 unobled scum is more liklier than above possibilities

[Eiralox]

Lol yeah ibnore the non,_sense infirst sentences, ill come back to this later.has merit

[Eiralox]

i havent handled total votes yet, but let's:


Assume that Polar Bear Express is Town. I have no proof, they feel the most green to me, but i'm still very hedgy on my reads. but let's assume.

Eira is town.


1. Herta is Dark Angel


Not_Mafia/Enchant

Not_Mafia/Azumaril

Not_Mafia/Mathblade

Azumaril/Mathblade

Azumaril/Enchant

2. MegAzumaru is Dark Angel

Enchant/Mathblade

Enchant/Not_Mafia

Enchant/Herta

Herta/Mathblade

Herta/Not_Mafia

Not_Mafia/Mathblade

-----------------
assuming mathblade town
--------------------

1. Herta is DA

MegAzumaril/Not_Mafia

MegaAzumaril/Enchant

Enchant/Not_Mafia

2. Meg is DA

Enchant/Herta

Enchant/Not_mafia

Not_Mafia/Herta

-----------------
Assuming Enchant town
-------------------

1. Herta is DA

Not_Mafia/MegAzumaril

2. Meg/Azumaril is DA

Herta/Not_Mafia

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A lot of assumptions. Tapioca maybe more town than scum, and Math does seem town, so second assumption can be made.
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Scumteam with Enchant in it could have enobled Enchant D2 for town cred. Enchant later saying 'all nobles town' might back this up. But enchant has also felt town on a good few occasions, my read here is a bit jiggy so third assumption a bit more risque.

------------------------------

that said, while I feel Junko was scummy, they could've been town and Meg could, also, be town. In which case i might case Math and it would something like

Not_Mafia/Mathblade Enchant/Mathblade where Herta is Dark Angel.. EH.

------------------------------------------------------------------

PBE/Mathblade did cross my mind on a few occasions. See: yesterday's noble voting. Enobling PBE here can be to cement towncred, and taking a gamble on Dark Angle after Toto kill. But it's a whackbrained pairing for now, still think scum would be hunting DA. Only question is, how much did scum know last night?

Did they have anyone not nobled? Or were they already nobles, with less info as to who DA is?

[Eiralox]

*missed Enchant/Mathblade under first 'Herta DA'