Open 869 | Fight for the Winter Court [Game Over!]

[Aisa]

Hi everyone! I am actually about to go zzz and will catch up properly tomorrow. Let me know if there is anything specific you want me to pay attention to~

[Aisa]

Morning all.

Isis, were you actually Una in Treestump Express? Just want to know if I've experienced (one version of) your town game before.

I skimmed some Isis and Chara posts and I am in a mini panicc about how I'm going to be able to sort them. Then again maybe that'll make the game fun. I haven't read much of the rest of the game yet. Please be patient if I start asking about things that have already been talked about.

i think if we haven't flipped a minigame in two days (deadline is in 5 days) i'm going to vote demonaslot and let Isis do as she wishes.

D: nonono!

Just in case you are very literal about the two days, I'm serous though. At a glance I don't see anything in Isis's ISO that should be impossible to fake as scum or any massive towntelling, though I'm curious about the change of heart on Isis I found in your ISO and will make sure to check out the conversation that seemingly led to it. I will give the game content, and I think I should be findable as Town. Well. I guess this boils down to "give me a chance no quickhammer pls".

[Aisa]

If absinthe is town I dont have the snow shovels or the familiarity with her style to ever

I guess I vibe with this. At a glance Coral is more stereotypically towny than Absinthe, so, without yet having tried very hard to discern alignment, I think that even trying quite hard I may not be able to conclude anything other than Coral-town, absinthe-scum. Which I get totally sucks for absinthe and I'm sorry.

Under regular circumstances I'd wait to have actually read 10 pages end to end rather than self-fulfilling-prophecy-ing myself, but people seem deflated about no one stating any reads, so. Figured why not just state a random thought that came to mind.

[Aisa]

are you actually asking me for input that you haven't provided, yourself?

Sure am.

I already think you’re scum and Coral is town (as evidenced by the interactions we’ve had even if I haven’t outright said it)

It’s between Chara and the replace for the scum in the other game I think but that ones the harder one to solve. Chara is a hard read.

do you townread Isis?

It’s not so much a townread per se more a I don’t see Isis scum so de facto town.

I don’t see Isis making that swap. Isis likes games like Pokémon and Magic and other strategy things.

I don’t see scum Isis making a move where she puts absinthe/ffery against Coral unless she thought she wins that battle.

This caught my eye. What do you think of the following possibilities?
1. absinthe is scum, scum thought they were making a good or ok swap at the time
2. absinthe is scum, scum thought swapping absinthe into the Gate would not be favourable, but were trying to maximise their chances of winning the other two games
3. absinthe is not scum, scum know exactly what they're doing because scum are about to win a minigame

And given one sided this battle seems between the two I just don’t see scum Isis doing that unless it’s scum Coral and if it’s scum Coral we are in a world of hurt because then almost no one else has posted any reads of note

Do you tr Coral? Are you content with absinthe getting voted out in the Gate?

I'll be back later~

[Aisa]

[...]
2) Again I don’t think Isis is the type of player to do that.

Assume absinthe is scum for these options

Skitter is town -> then one of Faker aka Prism (my slot) or Catboi would be scum. I don’t see how that swap helps scum win game three.
Skitter is scum -> Then scum did a reverse where

even if absinthe was mod confirmed scum ffery could drag out the loss

. Instead they put the timing of games in mod confirmed hands? Again doesn’t seem Isis.
[...]

Mhmm I don't quite understand the bolded. Thanks for the reply otherwise. I guess I don't yet know enough about who wanted to be swapped where to be able to judge. I guess this all sounds vaguely reasonable but I'm still skeptical that this strongly indicates Isis is not scum.

Random thought, if I were scum and the initial split was one scum in each group I'd want to swap two townies

[Aisa]

this is the scenario I feared, things are taking too long. I wanted to be polite and accomodate people but it's really not leading anywhere. I'm going to vote in the next few hours, if anyone's around and has something to ask, speak up now.

Hi I guess that seems fair enough, fmpov ideally you wouldn't vote for a couple days, but I kinda agree that from the rest of the game's pov a flip is useful, necessary even. I'm personally not going to support or oppose, do what you want.

I guess it would be nice to hear your Wall solve before you disappear.

I'm going to read the game and catch up for realz starting now.

[Aisa]

No worries.
Is it skitter you want to vote?

[Aisa]

I feel like Math is very likely to be town. I think he has a certain energy where he feels like everyone is against him and I think that is much more likely to come from him as town replacing in. I don't think he gets much out of being abrasive as scum here, and I think he's probably capable of taking a different approach if he thought that would benefit him more.

I've read pages 75-79. An astoundingly productive 30 minutes, I know.

Anyway, I vibe with this. Townlean on Math acquired. Congrats.

P-edit: oh

perfect

with what I just said, catboi . /s.

[Aisa]

Isis, were you actually Una in Treestump Express? Just want to know if I've experienced (one version of) your town game before.

Gentle reminder I asked you this question. If you'd rather not answer for whatever reason, feel free to just ignore it and I won't bring it up again.

Read over the last few pages.
I don't think Math's barometer on Chara's decisiveness is accurate for Chara, but it looks like a sorting effort, I don't really follow skitter's "wrong therefore scum assessment".
I'm uncomfortable with skitter's posting about being voted. Yes technically it's optimal no matter what, but there's different manners of acknowledging that. It's more like she's putting forth a proposition and insisting everyone accept that proposition or reject it rather than mentioning she'd like to be voted every time she remembers little things she townreads about her primary keep scumread.

How comfortable are you with Math's posting about being voted?

[Aisa]

I mean you and Chara could cross vote I wouldn't mind that at all

I have read from page 75 to now for the record, I'm just trying to figure out what to say next lol
Keep is grabbing all of my attention right now but is there even a point in me directing any resources towards that at the moment?
Then again is there any point in me directing any resources towards Wall when the game could be over 24 hours from now without me having to do anything about anything

[Aisa]

Lurking it out for a night is looking more attractive than ever, but I promised content some hours ago. Clearly I wasn't thinking straight

If I had to guess I'd say that catboi is the scum in the Keep? I'm going to double down on town!Math, I've just taken another look at his interaction with skitter and I don't see it as scummy. He just seems convinced of his idea, which is to insist he'll vote for himself. I don't get the sense he is trying to be misleading.

You're making a lot of vague statements abt rhe gamestate with little conclusion and i don't feel like you're trying to solve or sort our minigame tbh

Huh, I thought catboi said something similar about Math at some point, but I wasn't able to find the post again.

I don't feel like this accusation takes into account Math's stated approach. If Math is Town then his approach here is: 1. vote for himself, 2. never vote for anyone else, 3. hope someone else votes him. In this case, he's not trying to solve the minigame the Keep because that's not required by his approach.

It's also interesting to me that Math goes through this (rough) progression:
A) wanting to vote for himself because he doesn't feel he can solve the Keep and/or it's optimal play from his POV,
B) saying he can be more useful trying to solve other games
C) saying the Keep is out of his control because he may not get voted

Admittedly, I found the shift between A-B-C a bit disorienting while I was catching up, and sometimes I worried that the shift made Math scum. But if you read the points, they're actually not strictly in contradiction with one another? I guess there's some tension between A and C, but the shift to C is recent, and is consistent with my theory that Town!Math tried to engage with skitter but felt he wasn't getting anywhere.

Speaking of Town, I'm also going to double down on Town!Coral.

Still no read on Isis or Chara, sorry, that ain't happening tonight.

[Aisa]

In either a town or scum Math world, catboi following through and voting skitter (when skitter is here and active and able to self-hammer) is probably a loss. He's not doing much to prevent that from happening but I guess there isn't much he can do at this point.

If catboi is scum, the vote would be placed in the hopes that Math recognizes this and panics and votes catboi, thinking that catboi is town for being the one to vote.

Pretty much this.

If Skitter is town like you said she likely doesn’t vote me no matter what I do.
If Catboi is town votes me then we win.

If Skitter is scum she never votes me anyway.

Like the game is outside of my control so I would prefer to solve in the last game of Chara and Aria.

I don’t feel Isis scum makes these strategic plays

I know you said a ton of wordy words in response and I haven’t read it

But I focus on what I can possibly control versus what I can’t.

Although this seems to gloss over the possibility of catboi being Town. If catboi is Town then he's not inclined to vote you, so I don't actually completely understand the approach here

[Aisa]

Whether Keep or Gate is resolving first, my opinion is that it makes sense for Keep to have a hard deadline of resolving before skitter's v/la begins tomorrow, especially if she is the one who is being voted. I think having one member of the minigame absent from thread for a long period of time can create some tricky potential scenarios that are probably best avoided.

And waiting until after seems like too long, because if the game isn't over after Keep and Gate, there's a lot to reassess and dig through for the remaining town in the Wall + Tempest

And oh, if skitter has V/LA from tomorrow then it does seem like a good idea to resolve before the V/LA. I guess there's a world where skitter is the scum where what matters is getting one of Math and catboi to find the other, but I have no clue for how one would begin to do that soo

[Aisa]

Best wishes catboi. Generally, hope everyone is taking care of themselves.

[Aisa]

And whoops, I clearly can't Math. Well done skitter and catboi for getting it right.

[Aisa]

How do people feel towards gate?

[Aisa]

Yeah I kiiinda just still want the gate to flip via absinthe getting voted out, to be honest.

[Aisa]

It seems to me that either we the hivemind have unresolved doubts on Coral-absinthe and will put in the effort to investigate these doubts very soon, or there is no point drawing out the Gate.

Compared to yesterday I have slightly more doubts on Coral!Town - I can paranoia a world in which all the effort she's put into engaging with MathBlade is a scum/scum interaction.

[Aisa]

Although ISOing absinthe very much, eh, still feel better about voting her out.

This post, for example -

Spoiler:

So want to get a headstart? I don't know if you've outed reads yet, but if there's anything you want me to look at in particular LMK

want to make sure people are okay with the arrangement first and no one storms in screaming I OBJECT!!! but other than that fine

hmm what do you make

of chara and faker both

seemingly not wanting me in the keep

without really stating why

I have explained this repeatedly, and framing it as "not wanting you in the keep" is completely missing the point. The answer is about where should

everyone

go, not just you.

442 explicitly says swapping you/skitter/a third into the Keep is fine. I want me/cat to go there because it provides a very good safety buffer and prevents us from getting into an extremely grueling 1v1.

428 talks about preserving you/skitter as a pairing. This includes in the Keep.

I'm not going in the Keep

with

you. You struggle to read me, and I struggle to read your style. It makes essentially no sense from the perspective of trying to win.

385 elaborates on my approach to you in general.

This is the first post from Faker that I unequivocally like. No caveats. No footnotes.

whew!

VOTE: wafer wall

welp

I guess T->S I'd go something like

skitter, cat, demona, Isis, Chara, Coral, Tempest, absinthe

Some of this ordering is honestly random and I can see specific flips changing things greatly but I'll throw the dart for now and just YOLO look at people individually

I'm going to take somewhat cold comfort that your WH13 townread of me/nacho was apparently completely random!

Maybe it's a factor of not reading in the moment, but half the time it's a puzzle trying to figure who/what you're responding to in your posts.

The tone. The interaction with faker. My mind just instinctively pattern matches to scum.

[Aisa]

I'm aware that I'm not really approaching this with the mindset necessary to avoid confbiasing to the moon and back, but sorry, this is all the effort I feel able to offer today.

[Aisa]

Well... someone at the Wall is lying about wanting absinthe voted. I guess just trying to WIFOM and make it seem like scum is happy with that outcome.

Do you think that's an approach that is likely to help?

[Aisa]

GG, thanks for the carry