Newbie 2108 - Postgame

[Pavowski]

UNVOTE: Brick

[Alianna]

2.02

Votecount 2.02

IdleMuse (E-2): Aureal, Brickwalll
cactus (1): BlueBloodedToffee
BlueBloodedToffee (1): IdleMuse

Not Voting (3): cactus, Elements, Pavowski

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-01-14 20:04:17).

[Pavowski]

- 802 sure, sometimes wagons are all town, but I read Weuler as town and I felt it built and concluded pretty quickly? I think it's more likely _both_ scum were on it than none and 802 is intended to shift the dialogue away from that.

Gonna go ahead and express my doubts that two scum are on the flashwagon that ends the day, but your point here on BBT deflecting is interesting.

Cactus + (Idle/BBT), maybe?

Need to hear from the local plant life VOTE: Cactus

[Aureal]

My read was that meg and you were scum, and since it looked unlikely that there were enough people to eliminate you, I switched to meg. I was also hoping for more content from meg, rather than just sitting back and not doing much, and that post they made at that point was not the contentful examination of the current wagons and cases that I was hoping for. So I swapped my vote.

What made you feel it was unlikely there'd be enough people to get Brick?

Re. my vote on Elements today, I think she answered the points about her voting behaviour at the end of D1 well enough, like, I had no scum read on elements at all in D1 so it was literally just that hammer action and I think the defense she has made makes enough sense now that I'd consider it neutral.

UNVOTE: unvote elements

You didn't give any thought of your own to the possible circumstances in which the hammer coming there could be advantageous to certain parties during the night? Because it rather seems like trying to turn my startlement with its swiftness into trying to start something on Elements there with no real reasoning behind it.

Cactus' scum play reminds me of my own.

How do you know what cactus's scum play is like?

[IdleMuse]

My read was that meg and you were scum, and since it looked unlikely that there were enough people to eliminate you, I switched to meg. I was also hoping for more content from meg, rather than just sitting back and not doing much, and that post they made at that point was not the contentful examination of the current wagons and cases that I was hoping for. So I swapped my vote.

What made you feel it was unlikely there'd be enough people to get Brick?

I did counting. Two of the following people would have needed to vote brick - Aureal, Element, Pav, Meg, or BBT. Of them, Pav had previously, but, of the other four, I had the impression that you and Element had town reads on brick, Meg was quiet, had defended brick, and I thought possibly their scumpartner at the time anyway, and BBT had also posted they were unlikely to vote brick. Maybe I was wrong, but I felt like I was wasting my time pursuing that wagon at that time.

Re. my vote on Elements today, I think she answered the points about her voting behaviour at the end of D1 well enough, like, I had no scum read on elements at all in D1 so it was literally just that hammer action and I think the defense she has made makes enough sense now that I'd consider it neutral.

UNVOTE: unvote elements

You didn't give any thought of your own to the possible circumstances in which the hammer coming there could be advantageous to certain parties during the night? Because it rather seems like trying to turn my startlement with its swiftness into trying to start something on Elements there with no real reasoning behind it.

I thought the circumstances there would be fairly obvious, maybe not, or maybe my understanding of the meta is off, but, I assumed that the scum would prefer a town elimination over a no-elimination, so the advantage to them is... getting the elim, while they still were around to post? Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question. My thinking there was not particularly deep, I just wanted the questioned of the hammer vote landing before cactus could potentionally cc meg to not go unanswered.

[IdleMuse]

Gonna go ahead and express my doubts that two scum are on the flashwagon that ends the day,

I mean it's entirely possible ofc that it was one-on one-off, I just think it's unlikely it was both-off.

[Elements]

I thought the circumstances there would be fairly obvious, maybe not, or maybe my understanding of the meta is off, but, I assumed that the scum would prefer a town elimination over a no-elimination

Even numbers in the day is bad for town

[IdleMuse]

Is 6:2 worse for town than 5:2? I get that it means the vote threshold is higher, is that enough to offset the 'being closer to the mafia wincon'? Maybe this is just an aspect of mafia analysis I never encountered way back when.

[Elements]

If you take it to the next step, 4:2 is worse than 3:2. Still limlo but with a higher vote threshold

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I wouldn't say I like it. The interaction at the bottom of Cactus' iso reads very similarly to me at the one brick and I had about my pairs post.

What do you mean by the second part of this?

I know this convo wasn’t aimed at me but my 2c on the topic is I have put him down as noob town (I’m a noob so not meant with a negative connotation just to clarify).

@elements/BBT - A counter thought is do you think Idle using cactus as a front, and pushing her agenda through cactus’ case on me, speaks to him being a townie used as a pawn by scum Idle?

What makes you think he is noob town as opposed to noob scum?

Can you show any examples of Idle using Cactus as a front? Not sure I fully understand what you mean here.

My read was that meg and you were scum, and since it looked unlikely that there were enough people to eliminate you, I switched to meg. I was also hoping for more content from meg, rather than just sitting back and not doing much, and that post they made at that point was not the contentful examination of the current wagons and cases that I was hoping for. So I swapped my vote.

This was something that I questioned D1 as I was catching up; I can't remember if it was you that said it, but someone made out that D1 was a decision between Meg or Brick and no-one else was a consideration. Made me uneasy at the time and even more so in light of Meg's flip.

My read on Brick has changed in the cold light of D2. I don't agree that analysing the interactions between pairs is redundant, but, I also don't think, after reflection, that the cactus-brick or me-brick interactions came from a scum POV.

Who I do want to look at more is BBT. I'm gonna discount everything from the charles era, I don't think anything about troll-lurking is alignment-indicative one way or the other. But, since BBT arrived they jumped on the weuler wagon pretty quickly with little discourse (696, 701), now pushing cactus based on some equally non-informative judgement.

- 789 doesn't really sell me, if you think the push on brick was bad, explain it a little more, if you think there are things they said that don't make sense, quote them, 'obsessed with my slot' is hella exaggeration.
- 802 sure, sometimes wagons are all town, but I read Weuler as town and I felt it built and concluded pretty quickly? I think it's more likely _both_ scum were on it than none and 802 is intended to shift the dialogue away from that.
- 811 I mean you literally admit it's bad reasoning right there in the post. I do town-read cactus' aggression there because my thinking was mostly along the same lines re. brick at that point.

More damning to me is that I thought Weuler was a pretty easy newbie town-read, I don't easily buy that BBT didn't make that same connection, esp. being much more experienced (going by postcount at least).

Overall this isn't a strong scum read, but I'll put my vote down VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee because I don't have a stronger read right now.

Talk about your Brick read some more? You seem to have completely 180'd on it? What posts did you think came from a scum POV and now think otherwise?

Let's get to your read and vote on me.

I said more about Weuler than you're letting on, did you forget 689 existed? Like, I don't need to justify my vote on Weuler at all, but there is more than enough in my ISO to support a vote in a game that a) I replaced into and b) we were starting to run low on time in. In fact, had I not voted for Weuler, who do you think I had more reasoning to vote for?

How is my Cactus read not informed? Again, my ISO shows numerous posts regarding Cactus and my dislike of their play in this game. You're literally saying things that can be proven wrong just by ISO'ing me...

Find me a player that pushed Charles more than Cactus if you don't think he was tunneling my slot. I'll wait.

Regarding wagon speed, fast wagons happen when time is running low. Won't be the first time, won't be the last time, wagon speed does not correlate to wagon composition. It's simply comes down to whoever was online at the time. It's the reason that wagons/elims should happen much earlier so that a reasonable decision can be reached instead of doing it frantically. This is a discussion for post-game though.

Burden of proficiency is not a thing and never has been.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I just think it's unlikely it was both-off.

Why?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Both Idle and Pav have 180'd on Brick - talk about this please.

Aureal has been underwhelming so far, too.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Brick and Elements - I would like you to reconsider your Cactus town read.

[Elements]

I wouldn't say I like it. The interaction at the bottom of Cactus' iso reads very similarly to me at the one brick and I had about my pairs post.

What do you mean by the second part of this?

From like 600 the interaction with Brick on the lines of "what will you do when I flip town" "that's a dumb thing to say" feels similar to mine and Bricks interaction earlier along the lines of "One of your leading scum pairs has me in, so you're wrong" "but you haven't even looked at anything else"

[BlueBloodedToffee]

OK, does that conversation lend any weight to your Cactus town read because I don't see it?

[Elements]

yes because it's similar frustration and reaction to how I felt when talking to Brick

[Elements]

In think town gets frustrated, scum calls it lamist and leaves it at that

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Answered my next question before I even asked it.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

It's looking like Meg or Brick are the most likely flips today, so indecisive people, please stop being indecisive so we can do this properly. There's under 2 days left.

Hmm, it was Aureal that said it.

I spotted another post in their ISO that I actually quite like though.

Elements and Brick, what's your most current read on Aureal? I'm struggling a bit with this one.

[Aureal]

This was something that I questioned D1 as I was catching up; I can't remember if it was you that said it, but someone made out that D1 was a decision between Meg or Brick and no-one else was a consideration. Made me uneasy at the time and even more so in light of Meg's flip.

That would be me, and my prediction definitely showed strength as both of them got wagoned into claiming (a bit prematurely IMO). I did not anticipate that people would be so chaotic as to then back down after hearing not one but two claims and go after yet

another

target (though I'd have picked Weuler as the likely target if I did seeing as they'd already tried a flash-wagon on them), and it doesn't speak well to town's play that this happened. I'm still trying to figure out why this happened, it seems to largely come down to Idle apparently not understanding that town simply cannot let D1 end without a flip, and you popping in to stoke the fires without having even read half the game.


Please respond to my question for you above.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

No, it's silly.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Interesting phrase.

How was I 'stoking the fires'?

[Pavowski]

Both Idle and Pav have 180'd on Brick - talk about this please.

Aureal has been underwhelming so far, too.

I've 180'd on Brick? Did you skip my first post today?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

UNVOTE: Brick

Did you miss this?

[Pavowski]

This was something that I questioned D1 as I was catching up; I can't remember if it was you that said it, but someone made out that D1 was a decision between Meg or Brick and no-one else was a consideration. Made me uneasy at the time and even more so in light of Meg's flip.

That would be me, and my prediction definitely showed strength as both of them got wagoned into claiming (a bit prematurely IMO). I did not anticipate that people would be so chaotic as to then back down after hearing not one but two claims and go after yet

another

target (though I'd have picked Weuler as the likely target if I did seeing as they'd already tried a flash-wagon on them), and it doesn't speak well to town's play that this happened. I'm still trying to figure out why this happened, it seems to largely come down to Idle apparently not understanding that town simply cannot let D1 end without a flip, and you popping in to stoke the fires without having even read half the game.


Please respond to my question for you above.

Am I playing a different game? Where were there two claims?

Or are you talking about Meg's soft-claim followed by the hard-claim?