Open 872 | Citadel Conflict | Postgame

[Nona1510]

Everyone in thread other than Meg/Rat. Which one do you think is town and why?

[Doctor Drew]

You're fine

Nona

Idk, I think the scum in

Meg/Rat

could very well be wanting us to TvT, with the idea we are both town.

Yeah, think so but since I know I’m town and also think you are, both should look good when Elements flips. But in this setup since I know I’m town and think you probably are too, neither is going to get towncred if it is Elements like I think. Because scum not bussing here is suicide. If it is Elements like I think and either Meg or Rat advocated for them to be voted, they’d likely be toast.

Why are you worried about town cred? Once your location flips all of you are out of the game.

What part of this did you not understand? I was very clearly referring to Meg/Rat. But if what you say is true, I still want to give feedback on both court and dungeon.

Sorry about that, the way you said 'both should look good' was a bit vague and I thought you meant yourself and Taly.

I already have my theory, which I think is correct(scumMeg). But I am curious to hear from Meg about why they have to be town, according to the switch.

[Herta]

After majority is reached in a activity, that activity is immediately resolved, and all cadets involved are flipped.

[MegAzumarill]

Assume Elements and I are scum:

Pre- Flip Locations
Court

Bella

,

Radicat Rat

,

Elements

Palace

MegAzumarill

,

Taly

,

Nona

Dungeon

Drew

,

Herta

,

Farren

[1 of which is scum, arbitrarily picking farren here but argument works no matter who pick]

Nona explicitly states and can be inferred to be telling the truth that she will vote for taly or me if given the chance.

The other two are mostly up in the air about who will be voted. (How would rat fare between elements and bella, how would herta stand between drew and farren, not explicitly clear.)

What is the best thing for scum to do in this situation?

The answer: Swap Taly with Herta or Doctor Drew.

Nona would vote for me or be hard pressed to be convinced otherwise, and mafia would likely win palace.

Taly in dungeon lowers the odds of mafia winning due to being townread, but could go either way with how she votes. No clear winner. This is true no matter who is scum in dungeon.

Likewise in court, a cleared Radical Rat would also be in a dilemma (where I would even say elements is more likely to get bella voted than the alternative). this is trending mafia win but up in the air.

--------------------------

However, that's not what happened. Instead of a foregone conclusion of a mafia win in palace, now it is of a town win (remember in this hypothetical elements is scum)

The other two areas are still up in the air. At best you can argue it's wifom to win court but.... thats still not a good answer. Trading a mafia win for a mafia win through wifom BY GIVING a town win makes 0 logical sense for scum to do. Even if this argument was taken as a guarentee of winning court because I could mention it, which it almost certainly wont, it still hurt mafia's win chances overall by a substantial margin.

[MegAzumarill]

However the swap makes much more sense assuming Radical Rat is partnered with elements, where there was no swap that would win palace for scum, and dungeon would not be physically able to be swapped to.

[MegAzumarill]

You can disregard the argument if elements does not flip scum, but this is why I'm vouching for palace to resolve first

[Herta]

Nona would vote for me or be hard pressed to be convinced otherwise, and mafia would likely win palace.

Do you mean Nona would vote for Herta/Drew?

[MegAzumarill]

Even if this particular swap made me mod-confirmed town it would be actively harmful to me as scum to do.

[MegAzumarill]

Nona would vote for me or be hard pressed to be convinced otherwise, and mafia would likely win palace.

Do you mean Nona would vote for Herta/Drew?

Palace you vote for town, if I was scum nona would vote for me and I would self-vote, winning palace for mafia.

[Herta]

Also the IC in that scenario may be different right.

[Herta]

I see. I missed that you were scum in that scenario.

[MegAzumarill]

Also the IC in that scenario may be different right.

ye

[Radical Rat]

You're right, but well. Scum did make that call regardless. So I guess you didn't see that until now, and are trying to turn your mistake into a defense?

Doesn't make sense for you to try this argument unless you already know Elements is flipping red though, so Palace is basically won regardless at least.

[MegAzumarill]

You're right, but well. Scum did make that call regardless. So I guess you didn't see that until now, and are trying to turn your mistake into a defense?

Doesn't make sense for you to try this argument unless you already know Elements is flipping red though, so Palace is basically won regardless at least.

Do you have any justification why I would even consider this option? Like what do you think I was trying to do yesterday as scum. Are you trying to suggest I was getting in a group that both townread me to willingly switch myself out of?

Like have some explanation to my thinking about the swap if you want to actually scumcase me.

[Taly]

Rat

, who should be voted in Palace?

Ironically, probably Nona. I don't think she's faking not understanding things at this point, and while I would LIKE to trust you... I also trusted Meg and now I'm paranoid I was just completely wrong

Rat

, who should be voted in Palace?

Ironically, probably Nona. I don't think she's faking not understanding things at this point, and while I would LIKE to trust you... I also trusted Meg and now I'm paranoid I was just completely wrong

Why does

Meg's

input influence my alignment? That we are partnered?

Maybe? It's more just a shaken confidence in my reads generally than any specific associatives.

Plus knowing that Meg is scum means knowing Mafia was never in any danger of being stuck together, which makes Nona and Farren's sudden switches look... Not good, but less bad than they did D1.

I don't get what you're arguing for here, even as a hypothetical.

You think

Nona

is the best choice but also think her vote to Palace was bad?

[Taly]

Assume Elements and I are scum:

Pre- Flip Locations
Court

Bella

,

Radicat Rat

,

Elements

Palace

MegAzumarill

,

Taly

,

Nona

Dungeon

Drew

,

Herta

,

Farren

[1 of which is scum, arbitrarily picking farren here but argument works no matter who pick]

Nona explicitly states and can be inferred to be telling the truth that she will vote for taly or me if given the chance.

The other two are mostly up in the air about who will be voted. (How would rat fare between elements and bella, how would herta stand between drew and farren, not explicitly clear.)

What is the best thing for scum to do in this situation?

The answer: Swap Taly with Herta or Doctor Drew.

Nona would vote for me or be hard pressed to be convinced otherwise, and mafia would likely win palace.

Taly in dungeon lowers the odds of mafia winning due to being townread, but could go either way with how she votes. No clear winner. This is true no matter who is scum in dungeon.

Likewise in court, a cleared Radical Rat would also be in a dilemma (where I would even say elements is more likely to get bella voted than the alternative). this is trending mafia win but up in the air.

--------------------------

However, that's not what happened. Instead of a foregone conclusion of a mafia win in palace, now it is of a town win (remember in this hypothetical elements is scum)

The other two areas are still up in the air. At best you can argue it's wifom to win court but.... thats still not a good answer. Trading a mafia win for a mafia win through wifom BY GIVING a town win makes 0 logical sense for scum to do. Even if this argument was taken as a guarentee of winning court because I could mention it, which it almost certainly wont, it still hurt mafia's win chances overall by a substantial margin.

Humor me, what does a

Meg/Nona

scumteam do?

[MegAzumarill]

Possibly or even probably this swap

[Radical Rat]

I'm saying the main reason I thought Nona jumping into the Palace was scummy was because it looked like she was scum trying to make sure they were spread out in response to Meg's suggested grouping being a threat. I speculated on a Nona/Elements/Farren solve if you'll recall.

If Meg is scum, then that obviously can't be the case, and it would mean a hypothetical scum!Nona went out of her way to make sure scum WERE condensed. That doesn't make any sense to do

[MegAzumarill]

Since the options are Nona/Me -- Elements, Bella, RadRat.

Probably Nona- Bella or Elements actually because it leaves palace open but it's far from damning.

[Taly]

ngl i thought we were all going into hoods and am disappointed to know that i still have to suffer solving 7 other slots and world-build MULTIPLE elos

[Herta]

lol Taly cryin rainbow tears :+)

[Nona1510]

I’ve done a lot of thinking about this game and dislike that Meg is pushing for Palace to be resolved first. It seems pretty obvious to me that Elements is probably going to flip scum and Meg wants towncred for it. I think RR didn’t seem to have any idea what Elements is because they first didn’t know, then they wanted me to be voted.

My theory is that Meg switched because she was hoping to persuade Bella to vote Rat.

Gth it’s most likely Elements/Farren/Meg for the team. Elements seems almost certain unless I’m wrong on Taly but don’t think I am.

I think Palace is probably a slam dunk anyway, so long as both Taly and me agree to vote for either of us and not Elements, so I want to be weighing in on both the dungeon and court votes. Feel pretty confident Herta’s town in dungeon.

Also Rat seems to be really shocked by the switch and I’m not really getting that from Meg.

[Taly]

I'm saying the main reason I thought Nona jumping into the Palace was scummy was because it looked like she was scum trying to make sure they were spread out in response to Meg's suggested grouping being a threat. I speculated on a Nona/Elements/Farren solve if you'll recall.

If Meg is scum, then that obviously can't be the case, and it would mean a hypothetical scum!Nona went out of her way to make sure scum WERE condensed. That doesn't make any sense to do

But by the time

Nona

had joined Palace, only

Drew

had confirmed a spot. I don't follow the argument you're making for

Meg

-scum here.

[Taly]

I want Palace resolved very soon,

Nona

.

I don't like end of game phases to drag.

[Herta]

I wanted to see element's reaction before i said anything but i also was taken by meg's lack of surprise.