Mini 2287: AB:LoAF (Postgame)

[Gimli]

I'm not gonna ask anyone else to do it cause dying on purpose is silly. but if I'm in a POE I wanna go down that way.

[Kokichi Oma]

i meant arson* sorry these names are confusing. Used to there just being one scum. And yeah.

Flip in KT/Furt and piratee plund Aisa

[Kokichi Oma]

I have a better plan that gets me flipping

have furtive use his ability on me, and tomorrow I'll say whatever word I need to say to flip

then you flip aisa. that shreds the POE harder.

Don't think that's necessary

[Gimli]

it's silly that we have a dayvig and we are not taking advantage of it, though.

[Kokichi Oma]

We don't know the arson's roles, so I would like to have more numbers if possible for now. but i guess they could target you tomorrow just in case and tell you the word. But don't say the word right away. wait.

[Gimli]

I won't be in a rush

[Kokichi Oma]

VOTE: kittty

[Gimli]

did my music cause anything? I might target you again tonight since it might make your JOAT more powerful

[Marashu]

If pirates stay, clearing Aisa would also clear me. If Pirates leave, then we know probably the whole scumteam going into D5. If we flip scum today, that would also clear whichever of {KT/Furtive} is left behind.
If it's not Aisa and there is a 3rd Arso, it would have to be in {Gimli, Enchant, Kokichi}.
If we guess wrong, going into tomorrow we'd be at 5:1:2 or 4:2:2 with 2 doused. We then get scum the next day and are at 5:2 Victory or 4:1:2 with 3 doused, which is effectively elo because ignite that night, bringing it to 1:1:2. Pirates would be kingmaker if they haven't already left, otherwise 1:1.
If we guess right, going into tomorrow we'd be at 6:2 Victory or 5:1:2 with 2 doused. Guessing wrong would put us at 4:1:2 with 3 doused, which is again ELO.

By ELO if they hadn't found the last scum, I think we'd have 3-4 cleared townies between pirate clears and {KT/Furtive} if we guess that one right. The one risk is pirates lying about their targets.

Does this check out? Am I missing something?

[Marashu]

I find it strange that Gamma would holster as either alignment.

[Marashu]

But by that same logic, same for KT.

[Marashu]

VOTE: Kitty

[Gimli]

it can easily just be gamma too

[Marashu]

UNVOTE: I want to go back and re-read those two slots tonight. No need to rush this.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Okay. Time to say my role.

Harbinger of the Dreaming God

You know you have the following one-shot abilities to use at night, you know how many targets each has, but not what each one does.

Death
Famine
Pestilence
War

I softed it here

okay.

I'm a town mysterious musician. I target a player with a song and they feel an energy. IDK how that messes with other roles or if I'm giving scum a redirector to a nuclear bomb or something, but my role doesn't say what it does really. it's mysterious.

The mysterious roles are always the best

I had no idea what my role was gonna do. Death seem like it could be a vig? But, was not willing to risk it. I chose War last night and picked Fuyu/KT as it was the only shot that allowed me to pick 2 targets. I picked them since they both had a killing role. I thought it could maybe give them a shot or something. Turns out I got a message last nite that said KT/Fuyu are at war and are different alignments. How interesting. Which is why I asked if they got any messagee last nite.

HAHA that's a hard guilty

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

i meant arson* sorry these names are confusing. Used to there just being one scum. And yeah.

Flip in KT/Furt and piratee plund Aisa

why should we plunder out of your guilty

if the today elim is wrong we should target the other guilty to target scum?

[Gimli]

UNVOTE: I want to go back and re-read those two slots tonight. No need to rush this.

yeah I can do that at some point as well

I think the parts of the game where gamma talks about and to dr drew are interesting and potential svs. I was skimming now and it doesn't feel very right.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

so if kt flips arosn we probably winning game

if kt is not arson, the furtive is the remaining one.

or you think there was 3 of them?

[Marashu]

why should we plunder out of your guilty

For the same reason we went for No Elim D3. But this is also why I think order matters.

In all honesty, I think Pirates will be winning this game either way.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

so I see basically 3 possibilities:

KT is arson
Furitive is arson
kokischi is aroson and he fake claimed to set two mis elims/mis guiding up for his own win

why would you guys want us to target aisa here?

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

why should we plunder out of your guilty

For the same reason we went for No Elim D3. But this is also why I think order matters.

In all honesty, I think Pirates will be winning this game either way.

not if scum end game without us leaving the game.

we want to find scum for same reason you do.

I'm just not sure why targeting aisa is a good play at all here

[Gimli]

in the end of the day the choice is yours, pirates.

if you wanna target aisa or furtive, it doesn't matter much? just tell us what you're doing

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

here is what I think we should do:

so if we flip KT today and they end town, we will target furitive, if furitive is by any chance is town he must day vig kokichi (cause they are clearly arson) and everyone knows it as we won't leave tomorrow.
if we flip furitive today and they end town, we will target KT; if we don't leave game then KT is town and kokichi is scum and everyone will know it tomorrow as we wont leave game

Now if who we kill today end up arson, we will target aisa, as whoever is remaining of furtive/kt and kokichi are almost definitely towns in that scenario

[Kokichi Oma]

No, because in the event that there is more than one Arson left, then we as town are in a bad spot. We assisted you before, so we would appreciate you working with us too. Regardless you should target Aisa. We need to know for sure if Aisa is scum or not. Regardless we all win if you target Aisa

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Let me rephrase it for easier understanding:

1 - we will flip KT or Furitive

Scenario A: They flip as town

2 - remaining of KT/Furitive should try to kill kokichi as they know kokichi lied if they are also town
3 - Pirates target the remaining of furitive/KT
4 - If pirates leave game, the remaining of furitive/KT is arson. If pirates stay in game Kokichi is arson

Scenario B: They flip as scum

2 - Pirates target Aisa
3 - if pirates leave game Aisa is Arson, if pirates don't leave game Aisa is town. In this scenario kokichi and the remaining of Furitive/KT is also town