Micro 1075: The Coalition of Imaginary Creatures (Game over)

[Eiralox]

UNVOTE: Not_Mafia

You were pretty mean to Delta pokecow, weaponizing .gifs and tunnel trolling. Please be mean to me as well, I want that energy. Insult me, term me incorrect geographically, spam memes of humans considered to be famous for doing... things. If you ignore me I'll be mad.

HURT: Bingle

Meh no strong impression.

HURT: Keychain

Thanks for the welcome and being friendly but have to have you at solid null.

HEAL: northsidegal

Excellent vibes. (p_edit: deem ng town mentality)

HEAL: Umlaut

Just vibes. (P-edit: same as above p-edit)

HEAL: Not_Mafia

For the lulz. And they have an actual chance at being town. keychain dong this before me is interesting, and here I was hoping i'd be original.

[northsidegal]

Excellent vibes.

(p_edit: deem ng town mentality)

explain what this means?

[Not_Mafia]

UNVOTE: Not_Mafia

You were pretty mean to Delta pokecow, weaponizing .gifs and tunnel trolling. Please be mean to me as well, I want that energy. Insult me, term me incorrect geographically, spam memes of humans considered to be famous for doing... things. If you ignore me I'll be mad.

HURT: Bingle

Meh no strong impression.

HURT: Keychain

Thanks for the welcome and being friendly but have to have you at solid null.

HEAL: northsidegal

Excellent vibes. (p_edit: deem ng town mentality)

HEAL: Umlaut

Just vibes. (P-edit: same as above p-edit)

HEAL: Not_Mafia

For the lulz. And they have an actual chance at being town. keychain dong this before me is interesting, and here I was hoping i'd be original.

You're a poopybuttface

[Eiralox]

feels towny HEAL: northsidegal, patchwork, bingle, delta probably will change

I dig 2/4ths of your heals and I'll try to see if what Delta saw in Bingle had merit. I'm willing to hurt not_mafia in a heartbeat, overall my coalition picks right now are: northsidegirl, umlaut, and just for these heals I'd say you're a close third. N_M going through, idk, probs not probable. Once I do comprehensive reread I'll see how you vibe in general, little impression at first tbh but this made me think yeah can be town.

______________

That's it from me, I'll be back : p

[Eiralox]

Excellent vibes.

(p_edit: deem ng town mentality)

explain what this means?

Mobiwle mistype was either just town mentality or additionaly somethng else before that cant remem.Basically: You and Um appear to be solid solving.

[Eiralox]

You're a poopybuttface

Such eloquence.

[Keychain]

I'm willing to hurt not_mafia in a heartbeat

Damn coldblooded! I think late arrival then contributions from N_M have been towny.

What do you mean by using p-edit? I usually interpret it as an edit for if someone posted before you hit submit but you were multiposting.

[Eiralox]

I'm willing to hurt not_mafia in a heartbeat

Damn coldblooded! I think late arrival then contributions from N_M have been towny.

What do you mean by using p-edit? I usually interpret it as an edit for if someone posted before you hit submit but you were multiposting.

Not_Mafia did something in another game that I haven't forgiven them for yet, so while I love them, my heart has grown a layer of stone.

P-edit just how my brain works, means I added that bit after typing whole post.

Now I really gotta go.

[Eiralox]

Excellent vibes.

(p_edit: deem ng town mentality)

explain what this means?

Oh damn I remembered "seeming town mentality"

[patchwork]

probably because of that whole limming within the coalition thing?

Eiralox replaces Deltabreedy. Thank you!

welcome!

...no like i meant once we voted on a coalition

[patchwork]

Bruh

ewwwww light mode mafiascum exists?

[patchwork]

feels towny HEAL: northsidegal, patchwork, bingle, delta probably will change

I dig 2/4ths of your heals and I'll try to see if what Delta saw in Bingle had merit. I'm willing to hurt not_mafia in a heartbeat, overall my coalition picks right now are: northsidegirl, umlaut, and just for these heals I'd say you're a close third. N_M going through, idk, probs not probable. Once I do comprehensive reread I'll see how you vibe in general, little impression at first tbh but this made me think yeah can be town.

______________

That's it from me, I'll be back : p

i'm honestly not too sure on who to coalition but i'm currently trying to figure out who i Don't want in my coalition. maybe i'm making some wrong choices here but i just listed the three names that felt the most towny to me
probably going to think about it more though, i haven't really analyzed players yet.
bye!

[patchwork]

I'm willing to hurt not_mafia in a heartbeat

Damn coldblooded! I think late arrival then contributions from N_M have been towny.

What do you mean by using p-edit? I usually interpret it as an edit for if someone posted before you hit submit but you were multiposting.

a late arrival is nai

[Umlaut]

to angleshoot this a little bit, assuming that NM is telling the truth about just randomly remembering, i imagine that if he had posted in the mafia PT before the game started he probably would have realized the game had started earlier. something to think about. (hopefully site rules haven't been updated to the point where i can't say this)

also, congrats on passing keychain!

Why is this? Either way he got the PM and dismissed it.

[Umlaut]

why would I address it? I think you generally have good reads. If you're town I think you'll probably correct yourself over time without me needing to try and convince you. If you're scum you're scum. what else is there to say except it would be hilarious if you were town and eliminated me D1? That's what I've mostly been thinking about your read which isn't game productive

i have serious doubts that this would be your true opinion / behavior if you were town.

maybe

in another setup where there was just a d1 elimination and you assumed that i wouldn't push super hard for you to be it, sure. but in this setup particularly, if you are town, it is actually fairly important for other townies to recognize as such. i do not think that this is a fact which escapes you. i even went so far as to say that "i will never be okay with a coalition passing which includes keychain".

maybe i just have some complex, but if someone said that about me, i would at least

ask them

about it. it seems like the kind of thing that at least needs to be addressed, because i

know for a fact

that i'm town, and someone that i know being town being included in the coalition makes the game a lot easier for me. what i wouldn't do is just do nothing, expecting them to eventually change their mind. i

especially

wouldn't do that if i had a large amount of faith in their reads. if that were the case, i think that i would be even more likely to say something, because someone who should be getting something right is making a mistake.

This sort of seems like you're assuming Keychain sees the game the same way you do. I tend to agree with her that directly arguing I'm town is typically a waste of time.

[Umlaut]

- the most obvious point to me that I'm posting off the cuff far more than I'd normally be comfortable with in a game with players I'm familiar with

I'm getting this flow of consciousness feel with you which is why I'm town reading you I feel

First okay post from Kawaii

[Bingle]

Yeah but 1 in 5 is not improved odds from 2 in 9... unless I can't do maths

I mean... It kinda is.

So, the thing I didn't explain earlier is this:

Coalition Victory > 2 Scum in Coalition > 2 Scum outside of Coalition. If you are absolutely sure that scum will be on the coalition, you want both scum on the coalition. You also want high priority nightkills on the coalition, because then scum is forced to make the suboptimal choice of narrowing the coalition pool if they want that person dead. Which is why nsg is 100% on the coalition. Delta slot (Hey Eir) is pretty obvtown at this point.

Not_Mafia, even if he were modconfirmed town, is a shit option for a coalition slot, because scum will never shoot him, unless we actually commit to the policy elim. I'm not interested in the policy elim at the moment.

If we choose an accurate coalition, game is over. If not, limming on coalition is a 30% to hit scum (naive calculation with the assumption that P(1 on and 1 off) and P(Both on) are the same) and off coalition is a 12.5% to hit scum. If we can increase the odds that both scum are either on or off (by seperating S/T reads and collecting S/S reads) we approach a 40% lim rate on D1, which is a pretty good consolation prize.

It's like Monty Hall, the odds of switching your choice giving you a car are better than you might intuitively guess.

[Umlaut]

I feel like Delta/Eira is spewed town here

[northsidegal]

to angleshoot this a little bit, assuming that NM is telling the truth about just randomly remembering, i imagine that if he had posted in the mafia PT before the game started he probably would have realized the game had started earlier. something to think about. (hopefully site rules haven't been updated to the point where i can't say this)

also, congrats on passing keychain!

Why is this? Either way he got the PM and dismissed it.

most players use their egosearch when navigating the site. NM says that he was busy when he got the

day start

PM, and then from there forgot about the game. assuming he were scum, i would imagine that he would have already have posted in the mafia PT, and thus he wouldn't have gone on to forget about the game, because i imagine that there would be some activity in the mafia PT that would catch his attention and remind him of the game. on the other hand, if he were town and didn't have any PT ego'd, there would be nothing like that to remind him of the game.

[Bingle]

ewwwww light mode mafiascum exists?

I use silver on Bingle and Sepia on Jingle. MafBlack is reserved for hydrae.

[Umlaut]

most players use their egosearch when navigating the site. NM says that he was busy when he got the

day start

PM, and then from there forgot about the game. assuming he were scum, i would imagine that he would have already have posted in the mafia PT, and thus he wouldn't have gone on to forget about the game, because i imagine that there would be some activity in the mafia PT that would catch his attention and remind him of the game. on the other hand, if he were town and didn't have any PT ego'd, there would be nothing like that to remind him of the game.

Yeah, I guess you're right. Could be possible he didn't bother to post in it or something, but worth thinking about though I agree it's kind of angleshooty.

Really not a fan of what Bingle is doing with trying to game the coalition mechanic, in general I'm suspicious of plans more complicated than "find the scum and launch them" (or in this case "find the town and coalition them"), but I think it's NAI

[northsidegal]

If we choose an accurate coalition, game is over. If not, limming on coalition is a 30% to hit scum (naive calculation with the assumption that P(1 on and 1 off) and P(Both on) are the same) and off coalition is a 12.5% to hit scum. If we can increase the odds that both scum are either on or off (by seperating S/T reads and collecting S/S reads) we approach a 40% lim rate on D1, which is a pretty good consolation prize.

it's not super relevant, but explain where you're getting 30% from? my naive analysis gave that eliminating from within the coalition (while being reads agnostic, i.e. assuming that everyone in the coalition is a genuine scum candidate) is optimal unless you're about 62% sure that there's only one scum in, and if you're 50/50 on it then you have a 20% chance to hit scum. saying that, i think that maybe i'll rethink about it given the fact that i know that i'm town and also taking into consideration people overwhelmingly considered consensus townreads (although just saying that it seems to also favor eliminating within the coalition).

[Not_Mafia]

I'm willing to hurt not_mafia in a heartbeat

Damn coldblooded! I think late arrival then contributions from N_M have been towny.

What do you mean by using p-edit? I usually interpret it as an edit for if someone posted before you hit submit but you were multiposting.

Not_Mafia did something in another game that I haven't forgiven them for yet, so while I love them, my heart has grown a layer of stone.

P-edit just how my brain works, means I added that bit after typing whole post.

Now I really gotta go.

What did I do?

[northsidegal]

This sort of seems like you're assuming Keychain sees the game the same way you do. I tend to agree with her that directly arguing I'm town is typically a waste of time.

it's not about "directly arguing I'm town", which i don't expect. it's mainly about the persistent avoidance, which i have seen scum do before

[Keychain]

I feel like Delta/Eira is spewed town here

God yes

So, the thing I didn't explain earlier is this:

Coalition Victory > 2 Scum in Coalition > 2 Scum outside of Coalition. If you are absolutely sure that scum will be on the coalition, you want both scum on the coalition. You also want high priority nightkills on the coalition, because then scum is forced to make the suboptimal choice of narrowing the coalition pool if they want that person dead. Which is why nsg is 100% on the coalition. Delta slot (Hey Eir) is pretty obvtown at this point.

Not_Mafia, even if he were modconfirmed town, is a shit option for a coalition slot, because scum will never shoot him, unless we actually commit to the policy elim. I'm not interested in the policy elim at the moment.

If we choose an accurate coalition, game is over. If not, limming on coalition is a 30% to hit scum (naive calculation with the assumption that P(1 on and 1 off) and P(Both on) are the same) and off coalition is a 12.5% to hit scum. If we can increase the odds that both scum are either on or off (by seperating S/T reads and collecting S/S reads) we approach a 40% lim rate on D1, which is a pretty good consolation prize.

It's like Monty Hall, the odds of switching your choice giving you a car are better than you might intuitively guess.

I'm glad you've found plenty of setup spec to entertain yourself! Though I do think Umlaut's strategy appeals more to me, especially since it's late enough that I can't even tell if you're suggesting we put scumreads on the coalition