In post 783, Bellaphant wrote:
^ feels more like town enchant than any other post@ aureal
Not to me, lol. We don't have control over what Aisa does and Enchant pretending we do is disingenuous.
Help, I used the word disingenuous in an argument! I hate when people do that.
I get that, but it's more town! Enchant in that he wants to win, rather than to survive. I'd like everyone to respond whether it's a good or bas idea, basically
What reason would townEnchant have to think that flipping the two of us would lead to a win? It wouldn't. He's given no reason to think I'm scum, let alone "10/10 scum" that guarantees a win. If he were actually trying to solve I think he'd see that. Why would I suddenly go after him if I'm scum? You've pointed out that he doesn't get eliminated easily, but I do and he knows it.
How does he know? I thought you didn't have much experience with him?
TBf noone else wants to talk about your plan so I am getting worried that I'm being thick here. But we have two days and noone wants to talk to me about consensus either.
In post 796, Bellaphant wrote:I feel like rangers been the 'compromise' since day one though?
I've certainly been the focus.
In post 802, Enchant wrote:If i was wrong on Aureal, mafia would already "agree" with my reasoning and vote Aureal out or claim that i am gambitting and vote me.
Aureal is mafia. Like 99.9999999999%.
I'm not so sure--AurorusVox seems to have gone to bat for Vanderscamp harder and with less reasoning than for Aureal.
Looking at AV's iso I'm more sure than ever one of them is scum for AV's interactions with both (Vander strongest town, Aureal slot town), but the Aureal slot read looks slightly more fleshed out in a way indicative of scum justifying the read.
I realize scum could over-justify the read on a scumbuddy, but I feel it's more likely the stronger read lacking the stronger justification is the more suspect of the two.
Still analyzing tho.
AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgang
"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."
Having looked at Vanderscamp's iso, I definitely see Vanderscamp partnered with Aurorus. Their friendliness with each other was mutual. AV had Vanderscamp as strongest townread essentially unexplained, Vanderscamp townread AV and had interactions with AV which look partnery.
Still, this is early, so not definitive yet.
AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgang
"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."
Having done an Aureal+BloodB0t iso, their iso is distressingly light on the topic of AurorusVox.
It feels
plausible
for Aureal to be scum with AV. AV justified townreading the slot, didn't have it a the top, and the slot didn't mention him until much later and largely out of focus. (Aureal talked about AV but was not largely focused on AV.)
I see those actions as plausibly scum.
However, so far the Vanderscamp-AV interactions look stronger.
AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgang
"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."
In post 783, Bellaphant wrote:
^ feels more like town enchant than any other post@ aureal
Not to me, lol. We don't have control over what Aisa does and Enchant pretending we do is disingenuous.
Help, I used the word disingenuous in an argument! I hate when people do that.
I get that, but it's more town! Enchant in that he wants to win, rather than to survive. I'd like everyone to respond whether it's a good or bas idea, basically
What reason would townEnchant have to think that flipping the two of us would lead to a win? It wouldn't. He's given no reason to think I'm scum, let alone "10/10 scum" that guarantees a win. If he were actually trying to solve I think he'd see that. Why would I suddenly go after him if I'm scum? You've pointed out that he doesn't get eliminated easily, but I do and he knows it.
How does he know? I thought you didn't have much experience with him?
What's the benefit of scum! enchant posting that?
As far as past games, Enchant helped mislim me day one in both our prior games (and if he'd read the day one of the game where he replaced in during the night he'd have seen that I was at significant risk of it happening there there too were it not for Klick being stellar with his reads there and turning the lim onto scum instead).
And of course, in this game specifically I'd already antagonized both Vander and Ranger with my speculation about a bus there, before zeroing in on Enchant to get him worked up and you also deciding you could vote me.
In post 803, Bellaphant wrote:
TBf noone else wants to talk about your plan so I am getting worried that I'm being thick here. But we have two days and noone wants to talk to me about consensus either.
There isn't really anything to talk about. I'm clearly on everyone's potential vote list and we couldn't really put a comparable list of who would be willing to vote others together since he's not going to say anyone other than me.
In post 804, Enchant wrote:
I save your time: I will not vote anyone else. Therefore you can't elim anyone without my help or mafia help (protip mafia will not vote each other)
Wrong. You're the deadline elimination as things stand because you got voted first. How can you make a basic mech fail like that?
Okay so Vox had Vander as strongest townread.
Vox voted for Vander to go to heaven.
Vox defended Oclaxian Empire at points.
Vox justified a BloodB0t/Aureal townread, but had them mid.
Vander had Vox as a strong townread.
Vander defended Oclaxian Empire.
By far the team which seems to fit best is {Vanderscamp, Enchant} given the AV interactions and their interactions with each other, but I admit I'm cutting corners with this analysis.
AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgang
"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."
In post 804, Enchant wrote:
I save your time: I will not vote anyone else. Therefore you can't elim anyone without my help or mafia help (protip mafia will not vote each other)
Wrong. You're the deadline elimination as things stand because you got voted first. How can you make a basic mech fail like that?
Well i didn't fail basic math atleast.
2>1.
Wizard-Mercenary
You need replacement/players ASAP? PM me! I almost always accept.
In post 796, Bellaphant wrote:
Mainly because we seem to be going round in circles: we just retreated from e-1 on aureal, I don't want to vote vander, ranger is the only person enchant hasn't named as target, aureal doesn't seem to want to vote then, but they'd be Vanders top pick?
If we are going to have to compromise, we should be giving aisa the most info possible: how do we do that?
P-edit I feel like rangers been the 'compromise' since day one though?
Pp-edit can you rephras the second post? Im not 100% following
I'm not sure it's possible to fully compromise given we don't have the ability to communicate with Aisa.
Assuming we lim a town and it's getting to Aisa, the only possible method is for Aisa to strongly weigh up who that limmed town wants to kill, but this isn't a perfect method because scum can just try to lim the town with the worst reads.
I think the only method I want to do is try to lim the scummiest player and if that's wrong, hope that Aisa has a good guess.
In post 796, Bellaphant wrote:
Mainly because we seem to be going round in circles: we just retreated from e-1 on aureal, I don't want to vote vander, ranger is the only person enchant hasn't named as target, aureal doesn't seem to want to vote then, but they'd be Vanders top pick?
If we are going to have to compromise, we should be giving aisa the most info possible: how do we do that?
P-edit I feel like rangers been the 'compromise' since day one though?
Pp-edit can you rephras the second post? Im not 100% following
I'm assuming your last sentence is asking me about the Enchant thing:
Enchant saying "kill me and kill Aureal" is pretty towny, for obvious reasons, since if this actually happens and Enchant is scum, it's a scum loss.
I don't agree with the mindset, I definitely don't want to trade my life for anyone's because it just reduces our chances of winning, but I can understand a town having it and I think it's slightly towny.
I don't think it's impossible for scum to fake that kind of line, hoping that we will read it as towny and not follow through with Enchant's "plan," but I lean town on it.
In post 779, Aureal wrote:
Wait, Vox lied about Ranger supporting Vander in the heaven vote and nobody pointed it out until now??? WTF
Watch, Aisa is going to be the only one who noticed it and that's why she zapped him.
He didn't lie, Ranger did support it, just never voted for me, because of the reasoning that I would probably just send Ranger to hell in the next phase.
"I'll vote Vander if there's no other option" sure doesn't sound like support to me, just resignment. IDK how you two can think it's reasonable to call it that. He certainly confused me with it. So let me come back to this:
In post 731, Vanderscamp wrote:
During that entire day, Ranger had Aisa as their top town, with me as secondary town, and never voted me at any point despite having the opportunity to hammer me to heaven, and instantly voted the Aisa wagon when it came about, despite voting with one of their scum reads Vox (IIRC), despite using Vox's "bad company" as a reason to not vote my wagon.
If you had had a look at this at all, you would have realized that Ranger "getting nervous that you would sway things to Aisa's side" is absolute nonsense based on Ranger's actions that day, it would have been trivially easy to see that that's not what happened EVEN IF we're scum partners together, so you making this statement and then putting us in a likely team together doesn't make sense unless you either
A) never bothered to check this
B) were lying about this being a relevant factor in your read on us two being scum together
If YOU had a look at this at all, which you clearly must have since you point out Ranger never voted you and had Aisa as top town, where is this stuff on Vox coming from at the end of the first paragraph? Ranger never specifically mentioned Vox, who was in the middle of her reads; she just did some analysis that there must be scum voting you. You apparently thought her reluctance to vote you was because of that analysis during that phase, and Ranger corrected you in 553, which you promptly acknowledged. So why are you back to your old argument, and specifically bringing Vox into the argument?
I have absolutely no idea why you think this is relevant, so I'm going to summarise the exchange and stop talking about it.
Ranger had me as quite towny but never voted me for heaven that day, because of a combination of having Aisa as even townier and not wanting me specifically to be in heaven, both of which are reasonable stances from townRanger.
I don't really care that much about what Vox had to say about it but I think you going "oh no, why didn't anyone tell me Vox lied" is partially accurate but performative. Like, when I tried to explain the Ranger/me actions and how none of it made sense for scum/scum and you ignored it were you also lying about it?...
In post 803, Bellaphant wrote:
TBf noone else wants to talk about your plan so I am getting worried that I'm being thick here. But we have two days and noone wants to talk to me about consensus either.
My "plan" is to kill Aureal and Ranger in some combination because I don't think that loses the game basically ever.
If we lim Aureal and they flip town, I would not want Aisa to finish the job and lim Enchant just for the sake of it because those aren't my reads.
In post 807, Ranger wrote:
Having looked at Vanderscamp's iso, I definitely see Vanderscamp partnered with Aurorus. Their friendliness with each other was mutual. AV had Vanderscamp as strongest townread essentially unexplained, Vanderscamp townread AV and had interactions with AV which look partnery.
In post 804, Enchant wrote:
I save your time: I will not vote anyone else. Therefore you can't elim anyone without my help or mafia help (protip mafia will not vote each other)
Wrong. You're the deadline elimination as things stand because you got voted first. How can you make a basic mech fail like that?
In post 812, Ranger wrote:
Okay so Vox had Vander as strongest townread.
Vox voted for Vander to go to heaven.
Vox defended Oclaxian Empire at points.
Vox justified a BloodB0t/Aureal townread, but had them mid.
Vander had Vox as a strong townread.
Vander defended Oclaxian Empire.
By far the team which seems to fit best is {Vanderscamp, Enchant} given the AV interactions and their interactions with each other, but I admit I'm cutting corners with this analysis.
I'm pretty sure I didn't have Vox as a strong townread, can you quote me ever saying that?
I think I did have Vox as towny for his analysis on you being scummy, which I agreed with.
Also worth noting that Vox was IIRC the first person to abandon the wagon on me during the heaven phase (I could be wrong about being the first but definitely was one of the early voters on Aisa)
Personally, I feel like two scum making it to heaven is the MUCH easier path to victory for scum in this setup, as opposed to basically trying to win a white flag vanilla game where all of the NKs are decided by town.
My defence of myself here is pretty easy: if I were scum, I would have made it to heaven on D2.
We even know that the Aisa wagon was started by a scum at this point.
In post 822, Vanderscamp wrote:Also worth noting that Vox was IIRC the first person to abandon the wagon on me during the heaven phase (I could be wrong about being the first but definitely was one of the early voters on Aisa)
Personally, I feel like two scum making it to heaven is the MUCH easier path to victory for scum in this setup, as opposed to basically trying to win a white flag vanilla game where all of the NKs are decided by town.
My defence of myself here is pretty easy: if I were scum, I would have made it to heaven on D2.
We even know that the Aisa wagon was started by a scum at this point.
If three scum vote together, there's no scum to hammer scum into heaven. They have to rely on town hammering.
All it takes for scum to give up on the idea is fear it'd be suspect.
Vanderscamp being in heaven as scum would make people scrutinize the wagon of those voting Vander. It would put suspicion on all three voters.
Per the math, Hell 2 would eliminate 1/3, placing us in 4:2 or 5:1. During heaven 2, get someone off the Vander wagon into heaven, leaving at either 3:2 or 4:1. During Hell 3, eliminate a second of the 3, placing the game at 2:2 (where the townie eliminates the final voter), 3:1, or 4:0.
Mathematically, if three scum vote a scum into heaven on Heaven 1 and the town doesn't vote people on that heaven wagon into heaven and votes exclusively players on the heaven1 wagon to hell: scum can't win.
All it takes for scum to realize they can't win is to math it out as I do, requiring a hard-pivot away from the original strategy.
Don't pretend scum are going to have one plan at the beginning of the game, stick to it the entire time, and then never pivot from it. Scum can, and will, reconsider. They can come up with your plan, Vanderscamp; "It's easier to win with two scum sent to heaven".
And then try to enact it.
And then realize it's a bad idea, and pivot away.
Which is exactly what looks like happens.
AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgang
"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."
