Election! | GAME OVER

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh, and when you note this, you should note at this point I should be obvious town to you and any townie here because of what happened last night.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also, I may or may not have a tracker result that I'm holding for the moment because we're really far behind and I need to make the most of the last day I'm going to be alive lmfao.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Or is the answer "I'm not you" lol

[UNOwen]

Yes, that is the answer. We’re getting rolled here.

Why does last night make you obvtown?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Yes, that is the answer. We’re getting rolled here.

Why does last night make you obvtown?

The following sequence of events, in my opinion, makes me obvious town.

GL becomes treasurer
I tell GL to WIFOM using lots of money or no money, and never to partially fund ANYONE.
GL's treasury gets attacked by a scum power.
I know this happened because I was fully funded for 80, reduced down to 49.
When GL announced this in thread, I went "how much? Do you know?" as a way to "slip" accidentally that I wasn't funded.
Sheep gets shot.

In my mind, this means on thing. Scum were afraid of multiple people being funded last night and used a power to sabotage across the board because they couldn't kill all the townies who had powers, and that I might have been in the crosshairs except for me faking not being funded and being on a slightly weaker role than cop.

Additionally it was my advice to GL to wifom how much money got used that put us in an okay position here. GL apparently only funded me.

More or less how GL and I played yesterday reads very much as town to me for both of us and put us in a position to possibly win. I think GL is obv town at this point to me, even above where I am.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Like no other roles REALLY matter. I think you only use that power scum used if Cop AND tracker are both town and you can't kill both.

that's my take.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

and the fact that GL only funded ONE of the two of us, and that Sheep died ANYWAY tells me GL looks pretty town.

Is that fakeable? Sure. But he has to risk I get a guilty with my tracker which is pretty damaging to do that on.

Maybe I'm wrong. It's ELO so I shouldn't play absolutes. But had this happened earlier in the game GL would be 100% lock town for the game for me.

[UNOwen]

I agree it’s very extremely likely that GuiltyLion is town.

I want to check in case you and he are clowning me together, because a budget sabotage being pulled at this stage when it clearly implicates Alisae is convenient.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Yeah but I wanted to check in for the precise same reason lmfao

There might not BE a tomorrow, so I can't just "check treasurer tomorrow" so I wanted to confirm all my theories, see the results with my own eyes and be like "aight GL town, LLD town, let's move from that base".

I also still may or may not have a tracker result oooh spoooky

[Bingle]

Declare sheriff

[Bingle]

Responding to GLs last night post: the strat I suggested wasn’t about wasting money but about hopefully generating as many mechanical 1v1s as possible. If we had a furtive scum flip, we’d be able to miss on one of them. If we didn’t we would at least have a starting position for analysis.

[UNOwen]

Yeah but I wanted to check in for the precise same reason lmfao

There might not BE a tomorrow, so I can't just "check treasurer tomorrow" so I wanted to confirm all my theories, see the results with my own eyes and be like "aight GL town, LLD town, let's move from that base".

I also still may or may not have a tracker result oooh spoooky

That makes sense from your perspective. From mine if GL is scum pulling a creative set up then so are you, so it's not helpful for me to have you verifying his story.

[Bingle]

Do you think the world of GL/LLD team faking a guilty on Ali here is likely?

[UNOwen]

No

[Bingle]

I don't think that PR results here are going to matter much, tbh. We're in XLO, so we're never going to be able to fully trust a result again. With that said we have probably 2 more PR usages to fund, and the thing is that the treasurer probably doesn't matter at all for that. We need trustworthy people in positions where their results actually matter. I'd put GL in JOAT and LLD in tracker and overfund both to mitigate any further sabotage.

I declared cop because I don't think cop is actually useful anymore and I'd like to get past the waiting period.

[Bingle]

tl;dr, I don't mind Uno treasurer, regardless of whether Uno is actually town.

[UNOwen]

Glad to have your wholehearted support Bingle!

Declare: mayor

What drives these political ambitions?

[SleepyKrew]

hi I'm sick
TO MY STOMACH ABOUT THE FURTIVE FLIP AND SHEEP DYING
and also I'm ill

[GuiltyLion]

ok so:

generally I agree with LLD that the sequence of events last night makes her likely town but I also think UNOwen's paranoia also reads genuine. he can't really lie about the treasury or not fund anybody (assuming we hit scum today) without outing himself so I don't think it matters too much if he's treasurer, unless I am not thinking of something.

sheep dying is kinda noteworthy to me because I feel like he was the most easy miselim slot remaining, was it really necessary for scum to sabotage the treasury AND kill him last night? I don't know if I have a working explanation as to why scum made that shot, like they were clearly afraid of a cop result but why? what possible cop check would be most damaging to them?

I feel like once my claims about the budget are confirmed and if we flip scum today then LLD/I become likely NK targets, so I want to run for either Mayor or Tracker as Bingle suggested. I'll probably declare Mayor tonight unless anyone has a convincing reason not to

[Lady Lambdadelta]

ok so:

generally I agree with LLD that the sequence of events last night makes her likely town but I also think UNOwen's paranoia also reads genuine. he can't really lie about the treasury or not fund anybody (assuming we hit scum today) without outing himself so I don't think it matters too much if he's treasurer, unless I am not thinking of something.

sheep dying is kinda noteworthy to me because I feel like he was the most easy miselim slot remaining, was it really necessary for scum to sabotage the treasury AND kill him last night? I don't know if I have a working explanation as to why scum made that shot, like they were clearly afraid of a cop result but why? what possible cop check would be most damaging to them?

I feel like once my claims about the budget are confirmed and if we flip scum today then LLD/I become likely NK targets, so I want to run for either Mayor or Tracker as Bingle suggested. I'll probably declare Mayor tonight unless anyone has a convincing reason not to

would you like my pet theory?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

You're going to hate it, but I feel like we're in ELO you're the one I trust most GL, let's just show every card I have and say fuck it.

You don't know how hard that is for me, so... yeah.

[GuiltyLion]

yes, I'd like to hear your theory

I am currently thinking maybe there's a world where scum!UNOwen has a plan to lie about the treasury and push me for a game winning lim today, but I think if he tries that it's risky because you at least know that I'm not lying about the sabotage and if the two of us can convince whoever else is town to lim scum elsewhere then it just outs him tomorrow, when he'd probably be the deepest wolf remaining in that world

[Lady Lambdadelta]

yes, I'd like to hear your theory

I am currently thinking maybe there's a world where scum!UNOwen has a plan to lie about the treasury and push me for a game winning lim today, but I think if he tries that it's risky because you at least know that I'm not lying about the sabotage and if the two of us can convince whoever else is town to lim scum elsewhere then it just outs him tomorrow, when he'd probably be the deepest wolf remaining in that world

Here's my crackpot theory.

Scum used the Sabo to frame Ali and because there were townies in key roles last night and then shot Sheep because I "slipped" in the committee thread to not be funded and because they were afraid of the single most obvious Sheep target.

Cop Alisae.

If Ali's scum, why fear that? they 1v1 sheep and maybe e wins. I know I could have possibly been convincable.

If Ali's town however, with Sheep town too, getting a GREEN check on ALI from Sheep almost ALWAYS clears them BOTH. I can't see scumsheep giving me "alisae, Green" in anyworld, can you?

So what if Ali's town, you're town, I'm town.

We're looking for 1 more townie in that group.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I don't know if this is right, but I'm staring at today being an alisae elimination with... trepedation because it feels too easy and like I'm being led down a primrose path and why WAS sheep shot if not to keep status quo and so if status quo is bad Alisae is probably town.

Which leads me, again, back to my crackpot theory.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Tell me if I'm overthinking this. Like please I need someone to check my logic because my brain is running circles.