Newbie 656 Game Over!

[RandomGem]

Bored, so I'm computing probabilities for us! Yay!
(Streamlining work, ask if you really care.)
Since the first lynch was a mafia goon, we have a 1/3 chance that there is a mafia roleblocker, and a 2/3 chance that there are 2 mafia goons.
Because of the above probabilities and because the first nightkill was a townie, we have a 7/36 chance of no power roles, a 24/36=2/3 chance of 1 power role, and a 5/36 chance of 2 power roles.
Because of the above probabilities and a D2 vanilla lynch, we have a 21/91=3/13 chance of no power roles, a 60/91 chance of 1 power role, and a 10/91 chance of two power roles.
Finally, because of the vanilla N2 kill, we have a 7/25=28% chance of no power roles, a 16/25=64% chance of 1 power role (8/25=32% each for doc or cop), and a 2/25=8% chance of 2 power roles. This alters the probability of 1 mafia roleblocker to 9/25=36%, and the probability of 2 mafia goons to be 16/25=64%.
If you personally are a townie, then your observed probabilities are 7/20=35% of no power roles, 12/20=60% of 1 power role, and 1/20=5% of two power roles.
If you personally are a power role, then your observed probabilities are 4/5=80% chance of 1 power role (i.e., no other power role existing), and 1/5=20% chance of 2 power roles.
Won't run the scum calculations.

Yay for Bayes' theorem!

[Kairyuu]

-pokes thread with a stick-
-walks over to nearby medical examiner-

"I'm pretty sure it's nearly dead, sir. I don't think there is anything we can do to salvage it short of drastic action. It may be time . . . for the prods."

mod: Can we get prods on thegockoj and Petunho please? They haven't posted since D2.

[Kairyuu]

Honestly people, POST!!!

I don't want this game to die, but I can't exactly have conversations with myself can I?

[RandomGem]

Having conversations with yourself? You must be your own scumbuddy, you piece of scum!

[Petunho]

*Lift his hand and stands up* "Grrrrh I'm alive!"

Really really sorry about my absence. I should have informed V/LA for last 4 days 'cause lot of visiting relatives.

Into the game and thanks for Kairyuu keeping it alive.

If we get the cop claim, we have at least 2 confirmed innocents in addition to the one we already have (3 if both investigated players are still alive). That makes 3 of the 5 players remaining as confirmed townies. With a mislynch and a LyLo lynch we are guarenteed a town win, because all we have to do is lynch the unconfirmed players. Assuming the doc claim as well, we may even have a 4th confirmed, assuring an instant win for us.

There is one loophole in this thinking. What if the scum claims cop and we don't have a cop in the setup? He doesn't have a counterclaim and that way could get freeride to win.

-Scum claims cop - no counterclaim
-Scum announces player X (not Kairyuu) to be townie by investigation
-We blindly lynch one of the remaining not 'confirmed' townie-players
-Scum Nightkills the player X
-We blindly kill the other not 'confirmed' townie-player
-Scum win

If we have a cop claim now it is risky to take the claim as a truth.

On the other hand. It a risky draw from the scum. That is if we have a cop in the setup, he's gonna counterclaim and we win eventually.

I personally am in favor of thegeckoj's lynch. Looking into day 1 and 2 votings and now that we have 3 confirmed townies thegeckoj stands up as the most scummiest to me. He didn't give any vote in both votings, he suggested that he might give a vote and then went lurking for rest of the day. Also he gave the L-1 vote on his first post in hope for quicklynch, he went in the easy way for him to argue his vote (tooo loooong fiiirst daaay), he really hasn't given any new points into the game (no active scum hunting), he didn't attack thinktank, didn't vote for thinktank, promised to give his opinion and didn't and now he is lurking.

This said:

Vote: thegeckoj

[RandomGem]

Hmm, I just realized I forgot to account for the probability of a doc protecting NK in my probabilities. Meh.

I think it'd be a big risk for scum to fakeclaim cop, but... doesn't really matter since thegeckoj is the only person left...

[Artem]

I personally am in favor of thegeckoj's lynch. Looking into day 1 and 2 votings and now that we have 3 confirmed townies thegeckoj stands up as the most scummiest to me. He didn't give any vote in both votings, he suggested that he might give a vote and then went lurking for rest of the day. Also he gave the L-1 vote on his first post in hope for quicklynch, he went in the easy way for him to argue his vote (tooo loooong fiiirst daaay), he really hasn't given any new points into the game (no active scum hunting), he didn't attack thinktank, didn't vote for thinktank, promised to give his opinion and didn't and now he is lurking.

I think that most of these arguments can be directed back at you. Your voting patterns are the exact symmetry of thegeckoj's. He voted for you, you voted for him during D1. Neither of you was on thinktank's wagon. Both of you have been missing during a major chunk of D2. Neither of you voted for lifeofpie.

One is thing you have on thegeckoj is the more active scum-hunting but you also have the scumminess of your predecessor Drifter over your head.

I think that the remaining scum is one of you two but I'm not quite sure which one of you. I've never gotten much of a read on thegeckoj, which of course might have been the whole point of his play. Your predecessor, on the other hand, has been pretty scummy but you're doing a good job of appearing townie.

[Artem]

... but... doesn't really matter since thegeckoj is the only person left...

Can you please clarify what you mean by this?

[Kairyuu]

@Petunho: That gambit was accounted for in my plan, rest assured. I won't say how until after thegeckoj gets here but it definitely was. Will say more later. Computer battery dying.

[Kairyuu]

@RandomGem:

Having conversations with yourself? You must be your own scumbuddy, you piece of scum![/quote]

Damnit. He's onto me. I guess I need to roleclaim.

I'm not scum. I'm just a friendly neighborhood NK immune miller vig, just like Oman.

@Petunho:

There is one loophole in this thinking. What if the scum claims cop and we don't have a cop in the setup? He doesn't have a counterclaim and that way could get freeride to win.

-Scum claims cop - no counterclaim
-Scum announces player X (not Kairyuu) to be townie by investigation
-We blindly lynch one of the remaining not 'confirmed' townie-players
-Scum Nightkills the player X
-We blindly kill the other not 'confirmed' townie-player
-Scum win

If we have a cop claim now it is risky to take the claim as a truth.

The bold is the key, and bringing it up taints the sample. Fortunately for you, the fact that you brought it up means that you are less likely scum, because the risk/benefit ratio for making the claim is very much to your benefit. Of course, this leads to WIFOM, so I won't continue.

My hope would be that the remaining scum would be foolish enough to claim with 2 innocents. That confirms the claimed innocents beyond a doubt, because if the claim is truthful, then we have 2 investigated innocents, and if it a scum fakeclaim then the claimed innocents MUST be innocent, because anyone other than the scum claimant must be innocent due to the fact that there is only one scum.

Therefore, a claim with two innocents means we lynch the unconfirmed today and the cop claim tomorrow if the lynch fails, and a claim with one innocent means at worst we have a confirmed innocent in LyLo, which is pretty decent.

I personally am in favor of thegeckoj's lynch. Looking into day 1 and 2 votings and now that we have 3 confirmed townies thegeckoj stands up as the most scummiest to me. He didn't give any vote in both votings, he suggested that he might give a vote and then went lurking for rest of the day. Also he gave the L-1 vote on his first post in hope for quicklynch, he went in the easy way for him to argue his vote (tooo loooong fiiirst daaay), he really hasn't given any new points into the game (no active scum hunting), he didn't attack thinktank, didn't vote for thinktank, promised to give his opinion and didn't and now he is lurking.

Artem makes a good point in saying that other than your slightly higher levels of scumhunting, you have done exactly the same thing as you accuse him of doing. This is called being a hypocrite. Coupled with play from Drifter that I would have hammered him for in a second, I'd say that you just moved up to the top of my scum list.

mod: can we get a prod/replacement for thegeckoj please? We need someone in that role so we can move forward with the day.

[Kairyuu]

Edit: Messed up my tags on the first quote.

[Kairyuu]

-stomps feet and waves around a rocket launcher-

Do NOT make me use this! SOMEONE NEEDS TO POST OTHER THAN ME!!!

[Petunho]

Artem makes a good point in saying that other than your slightly higher levels of scumhunting, you have done exactly the same thing as you accuse him of doing.

*He didn't give any vote in both votings

- Admit

*He suggested that he might give a vote and then went lurking for rest of the day

- Didn't do

*Also he gave the L-1 vote on his first post in hope for quicklynch

- Didn't do

*He went in the easy way for him to argue his vote (tooo loooong fiiirst daaay)

- Didn't do

*He really hasn't given any new points into the game (no active scum hunting)

- Didn't do

*He didn't attack thinktank, didn't vote for thinktank

- Admit

*Promised to give his opinion and didn't

- Didn't do

*Now he is lurking

- Don't do

Coupled with play from Drifter that I would have hammered him for in a second, I'd say that you just moved up to the top of my scum list.

Good thing that you wasn't in the game that time, we would be down at least one more townie then.

[Petunho]

And to add this one on the not voting thing:

If Lifeofpie doesn't claim by tomorrow at 8pm EST (GMT-5) then my next post will contain the hammer. I'd be posting more, but I'm bogged down with homework and I have my college applications due quite soon. I can still keep up pretty easily now though (I died in both of my other games yesterday).

I agree. I myself was hoping that thegeckoj would had given his word and given his opinion about the situation, but this looks a lost case. He continues to drift along.

If there comes nothing radical from lifeofpie I'm 100% with the lynch.

While this isn't giving the vote for lifeofpie, I would say this is more than what thegeckoj did.

im willing to be the hammer vote. i will reread through the last couple of pages to see if i can convince myself to end it, should be ready to vote or not by tomorrow.

And not a word ever since...

[Kairyuu]

@Petunho:

He suggested that he might give a vote and then went lurking for rest of the day - Didn't do

You didn't lurk, and kept asking why the hammer was not dropped yet, but you also didn't do it yourself. Possibly worried about hammering a townie.

*He really hasn't given any new points into the game (no active scum hunting) - Didn't do

You cannot claim to have been scumhunting. The closest you came was in your fist post where you analyzed the game to that point. Most of D1 you were doing nothing but defending yourself and trying to shift the lynch from thinktank to Chapter 5 (me) or thegeckoj. Then D2 you posted a bit of theory about why people are confirmed, said you wanted thegeckoj to hammer lifeofpie, and, immediately after asking him the first time, admonished the town for moving towards lynching so fast.

Promised to give his opinion and didn't - Didn't do

Very well. You gave your opinion. You didn't actually pick a stance to take, but you did give your opinion.

*Now he is lurking - Don't do

. . . All of you are lurking. Every single one.

Good thing that you wasn't in the game that time, we would be down at least one more townie then.

Appeal to emotion.

All that said, I would be perfectly happy with lynching either you or thegeckoj today, and the other tomorrow, because I am reasonably certain that one of you is scum (also, meta is starting to lean towards RG scum too, which is bothering me).

[Artem]

@Petunho: Ok, so you agree that you are guilty of some of the same things that you are accusing thegeckoj of. You, however, don't address the question of why you using them against thegeckoj doesn't make you look hypocritical.

Good thing that you wasn't in the game that time, we would be down

at least

one more townie then.

I may be reading between the lines too hard here but what does "at least" one more townie mean?

Petunho and thegeckoj are also at the top of my list, but I think I will hold off on voting until thegeckoj (or his replacement) have checked in.

[Artem]

. . . All of you are lurking. Every single one.

Yea, this game has been moving at a snail pace. Other games have started and finished already. I admit that I've kinda lost interest as most of the game has been just sitting around and waiting for replacements/posts from other players.

But we're almost done. And speaking of which....

I think that, assuming a mislynch today, Kair is more or less guaranteed a place in the endgame, because based on the last night's kill, it appears that the remaining mafia is wary of a doc protection. And because of that, I think that you, Kair, should be careful naming who you would like to lynch tomorrow if today's lynch flips town. Otherwise, you're telling the mafia exactly who should be kept alive.

Hopefully, this is a moot point and we're right: one of thegeckoj or Petunho is scum. But on the off-chance it's RandomGem or me (I'm not scum, but from your point of view, you don't know that and should consider it), you've just told us what the optimal setup for the end-game will be.

The wariness of a doc protect also means that there's a good chance we have at least one power role (see RG's numbers above) and that we (as in whoever remains alive in the endgame) should be careful about claims in the endgame (again, assuming a mislynch today).

Just thinking ahead.

[Kairyuu]

@Artem:

I may be reading between the lines too hard here but what does "at least" one more townie mean?

I would like to know this as well.

I think that, assuming a mislynch today, Kair is more or less guaranteed a place in the endgame, because based on the last night's kill, it appears that the remaining mafia is wary of a doc protection. And because of that, I think that you, Kair, should be careful naming who you would like to lynch tomorrow if today's lynch flips town. Otherwise, you're telling the mafia exactly who should be kept alive.

You do realize that you are doing exactly what you are warning me against right? By saying that I will likely survive until endgame and thus shutting me up, there is a higher chance of the doc trying to protect someone else in order to actually block the kill or of the scum risking trying to kill me anyway just in case.

Hopefully, this is a moot point and we're right: one of thegeckoj or Petunho is scum. But on the off-chance it's RandomGem or me (I'm not scum, but from your point of view, you don't know that and should consider it), you've just told us what the optimal setup for the end-game will be.

Oh, I wasn't ignoring you two at all. I wouldn't be surprised if any of you flipped scum, and could build a case against anyone in this game right now.

The wariness of a doc protect also means that there's a good chance we have at least one power role (see RG's numbers above) and that we (as in whoever remains alive in the endgame) should be careful about claims in the endgame (again, assuming a mislynch today).

I would say that in LyLo a power role claim should be completely ignored as a policy.

@all: Currently, my suspicion list is this:

1. thegeckoj
2. Artem
3. RandomGem
4. Petunho

(Yes Artem, this means that I am choosing to disregard your advice, and also that my suspicions of you have gone up.)

[thegeckoj]

i am here, i will do a read of the past 2 pages and post my thoughts.

[Artem]

You do realize that you are doing exactly what you are warning me against right? By saying that I will likely survive until endgame and thus shutting me up, there is a higher chance of the doc trying to protect someone else in order to actually block the kill or of the scum risking trying to kill me anyway just in case.

I don't follow.

I'm saying that you shouldn't help scum choose their night kills. Where are you getting the "shutting up" thing from? And how exactly did I just do the same thing, i.e. help scum decide who to kill tonight? They may or may not try killing you tonight regardless of my advice.

[Artem]

And I should say that the doc (if we have one) should always protect a confirmed townie and not try to play a hero.

[Kairyuu]

@Artem:

Where are you getting the "shutting up" thing from?

By telling me to stop voicing my suspicions you are telling me to 'shut up' about who I think the last scum is. The scum can NK whoever they want. I go through the entire thread each Night to look for tells that I missed and to see how the other players have interacted with the lynchee. So my suspicions tend to change somewhat every Day.

And how exactly did I just do the same thing, i.e. help scum decide who to kill tonight? They may or may not try killing you tonight regardless of my advice.

Nevermind. If I survive then it doesn't matter who anyone else is suspicious of, since both of the surviving unconfirmed players will vote each other automatically.

And I should say that the doc (if we have one) should always protect a confirmed townie and not try to play a hero.

I agree, but people don't always do what they should.

[Kairyuu]

@thegeckoj: Does it seriously take this long to read 2 pages?

@mod: We need a prod on RandomGem please.

I'm gonna be V/LA until Tuesday night, though I don't expect much will happen before then.

Screw it. I'm not waiting for him anymore.

vote:thegeckoj

Die scum die.

[Artem]

Nevermind. If I survive then it doesn't matter who anyone else is suspicious of, since both of the surviving unconfirmed players will vote each other automatically.

...and that's exactly why you shouldn't tell us who you're going to lynch tomorrow if today's lynch flips town.

[Artem]

In my experience, players that promise content but don't deliver it are likely scum (see, e.g., thinktank). Here's another example, where I nailed scum in endgame based on non-delivered promises of content:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8989

@thegeckoj: If you don't post by Kair's return, I will hammer.