Mini Normal 2294: Monkey Business (Endgame)

[Klick]

Why?

[Klick]

Right but that's not reasoning that's justification
Surely you've put more thought into the scum in this situation than that

[Klick]

Hi MT congrats on replacing into another endgame win

[Klick]

I started skimming towards the end were there specific questions for me or was it mostly 'Klick play bad = scum'

[Klick]

Bet you were surprised to see red in your role PM

[Klick]

I think MT's catch up looks townie and somewhat unaligned with either klick or gera

You see what you want to see

[Klick]

I remember playing as scum and MT replaced in on our team and looked, uh, the opposite of this

I'll have a look for myself later but does anyone know if activity is a pattern tell for her

I suspect most of her post was thoughts formed before she replaced in and knew her alignment, with the push behind the conclusions being the main influence of her role pm

[Klick]

Gera isn't posting like someone who will lose the game when he flips

[Klick]

More precisely, gera is posting like someone who is ultimately expecting to get eliminated

and is fine with it

[Klick]

Yes, gera is always scum and I think that's the primary take of every other player in the game

[Klick]

More precisely, gera is posting like someone who is ultimately expecting to get eliminated

and is fine with it

Nope. I just I've been out of my depth in this game for a long time, I'm not capable of long posts like MT , especially having been in it for ages.
I've tried to respond to everything thrown at me, but in much the same way I feel what is being used against me is purely circumstantial ( and not based on, you know, me actually being scum) what I can use to persuade others about others guilt is weak too (except the whole constantly voting green players and accidentally not doing the required night actions that would have proved you were innocent) except the bits I know must be true because I know my alignment.

What are you doing about it then?

How would my missed night actions have proved that I'm innocent?

[Klick]

Klick do you believe there's reasonable chance that Gimli and Sky could have gambitted the fuck out of that (This is a genuine question I'm not testing you or smth)

with you and gera crossvoting then Gimli can only still be scum with, I guess gera from your PoV. Is Gera and Gimli technically still possible

The reason I'm asking this is because Gimli scum obviously just wins by accepting everything i say at face value as he's been doing as im already firmly duped as everyone else

I don't see why Sky and Gimli choose to gambit there when the game is probably a very easy win for that team without doing that

Is it technically possible? Yeah but I wouldn't understand that team's motives or choices at all

[Klick]

I want to target you but I'll settle for MT if Ausuka agrees

MT absolutely would post everything she has posted today as either alignment and thinking otherwise is fallacious
She gives am amount of effort into endgame replace-ins every time she does it, likely out of respect for the game

[Klick]

These things are explainable by MT being rather good at sounding organic when she's scum

which is a true statement

[Klick]

When someone reads a game at a level of depth before they have a role PM they have a towny thought process because they did solving without a solution
MT literally has access to a towny thought process on the parts of the game she read pre-replacement regardless of her alignment and that influences analysis of how genuine you think her posting and solving is.

I don't have a specific late-game scum replacement game to back up my opinion of MT here - it's a read based on 1. having seen her replace in as

town

previously and a lot of her content from that game admittedly being written before she had her role PM, and 2. believing she is very capable of appearing natural as scum, which I believe based on being really impressed with a scum game of hers that I modded like ages ago

So not the hardline sources you might want for that opinion, but it's one I hold regardless even when I'm not biased and basically know she's scum in this game

[Klick]

I think with access to essentially a town perspective of a game before entering, it doesn't take very much effort to just remember where your mind was before you had the solution to the game and have that massively assist in looking genuine overall

[Klick]

I'm not a strong scum player but I'm not poor enough to have essentially voluntarily entered a position like this from what would be a strong F7 LyLo position.

Like 'welp I must have been roleblocked you're right Gimli' would be a strictly better scum lie than 'I forgot to submit my action last night soz'.

[Klick]

But I feel like I speaking into a void and you've both decided this isn't really worth much more of your brain energy.

[Klick]

Scum not actually having a roleblocker wouldn't be relevant
If I were scum I could have gone 'oh I was roleblocked'
And it would put me in a much better place today than 'I didn't submit my action last night'

[Klick]

Do you believe that I as scum would think claiming roleblocked would be a much better choice than claiming no-submit?

[Klick]

The main point I'm getting at is that claiming no-submit would be a particularly poor choice if it weren't true

Heck, I think 'I visited Gimli, I think Gimli is lying scum' is a better choice of lie than 'I no-submitted'

[Klick]

I don't believe that when like 70% of your discourse with me today has been about the no-submit thing and the tone of your read of the situation changed significantly against me after that reveal

[Klick]

What actually gives you conviction that I'm scum then?

[Klick]

Because I thought it was the whole 'convenient poor choices' thing

[Klick]

MT is townie as all hell

You're biased as all hell
Otherwise you'd be responding to the points I've made against this as a concept

[Klick]

of course there are many associatives at play here

you and gera failed to do any sort of convincing 1v1 against each other in this gameday, even though you're voting one another. that's more associative than what MT is doing which just looks unpartnery, going hard at both slots, harder at you but coming to conclusions that are just as strong and sensible wrt you than wrt gera.

I think gera's content today spews me hard as town when he flips scum.
My job isn't to convince you of things from my own confbiased perspective. You're not going to see things differently now just because I argue them having all the answers. I don't have particularly strong persuasive skills.

I am able to judge what things you should be able to see from an unbiased perspective. The problem is you aren't unbiased, you're biased in your own current read and have been since I dared to consider you possible scum over Skygazer yesterday.

[Klick]

When someone reads a game at a level of depth before they have a role PM they have a towny thought process because they did solving without a solution
MT literally has access to a towny thought process on the parts of the game she read pre-replacement regardless of her alignment and that influences analysis of how genuine you think her posting and solving is.

I don't have a specific late-game scum replacement game to back up my opinion of MT here - it's a read based on 1. having seen her replace in as

town

previously and a lot of her content from that game admittedly being written before she had her role PM, and 2. believing she is very capable of appearing natural as scum, which I believe based on being really impressed with a scum game of hers that I modded like ages ago

So not the hardline sources you might want for that opinion, but it's one I hold regardless even when I'm not biased and basically know she's scum in this game

I posted this and got tumbleweed
Except from MT who fucking agrees with what I'm arguing conceptually and gives as much

[Klick]

I'll only know when everyone flips but this is the world I feel strongest is the case and if I do anything else and I'm wrong it'll be gamethrowing and bad player jail so I'm not about to do that, you know

This kind of mindset limits your potential town play massively. Don't be afraid of finding answers. Don't be afraid of being wrong. Just find the truth.

I told you f7 if you're town what you were doing there would come back to you.

Something something self-fulfilling prophecies
This only has to be true if you want it to be true

[Klick]

VOTE: Skygazer

Fuck fuck fuck fuck

vote sky

I think sky has been trapped into exposing themselves, I alwaysbthought today scum would be because there were too many night actions to go round and they would be found out. The lack of any votes backing theirs up too.

Whoever is town on Sky, unvote now

Sky is at E-1. This looks like a quickhammer setup. Unvote now please.

unvote

Sorry

I'd appreciate another unvote

Out for dinner with Bella atm, I don't want this to end while I'm out

vote sky

I've seen enough. I am not surebwhy I was told to unvote earlier, as all that has happened is that sky is flailing more and more.
Easter weekend, don't expect much from me

So I really strongly suggest reading back on this yourself and getting full context, things like times and order of events and the context of the discussion happening around this time, because otherwise me providing quotes is just my interpretation of a situation that you'd just have to trust me on. Everything I'm arguing is based on the actual context of the situation, and if you go look at it you should be able to see how I'm reaching the conclusions I'm reaching.

My big question is

what is geraintm actually trying to do?

(And as a related question,

what am I trying to do?

, but I think the first question is more relevant and the main reason we're not viable partners)

When I originally read 4050 followed by 4060, I strongly suspected that a quickhammer was being set up. I think this was a correct read of the situation, just not in the way I thought.

4106 sets up for Skygazer to self-hammer. I believe 4060 was originally intended to do this. I think when specifically trying to get into geraintm!scum's head, what gera wants to do with 4060 is set up for Sky to self-hammer. It's gera's first post after Sky is put on E-2. He does it in a very similar manner in 4106 afterwards.

This suggests a level of coordinated effort on behalf of the scumteam to end the day fairly quickly on a Skygazer lim.

So then my question is,

why

does the scumteam want yesterday to end fairly quickly on a Skygazer lim? Why is that something they desire and play towards? And who makes sense as scum under that lens?

(If you would like, pause the video and attempt to answer this question yourself before continuing on to the answer.)

[...]

So I think at its base, the scumteam thought the best choice they had yesterday was to end the day early. It was a conscious choice made by gera, and then re-made some 19 hours later. It looks planned in both instances. They wanted this and planned it out. Which means they thought it granted them some tangible benefit - otherwise, there's no point. You can WIFOM it, but scumteams generally don't actually do things for no reason.

I think there's a clear benefit for a Sky-gera-Kawaii scumteam to end yesterday early, whereas for a Sky-gera-Klick scumteam there would not only be no sensible benefit, but it would be actively harmful.

I think the benefit for Sky-gera-Kawaii scumteam is twofold: from how yesterday's conversation was going, they were set up to win; and they didn't want the advantage they had to vanish through town communicating further with each other. All three of these players have been rather low-influence and low-activity relative to this game, and Kawaii was AFK. I think it was Gimli who even started saying today that he was thinking of un-clearing Kawaii specifically because of their low activity. That scumteam needs to press their advantage. They want to let Sky hammer herself so that the lasting narrative of the day is town talking about how the team is clearly Sky/gera/Klick.

They benefit from yesterday's conversation ending prematurely.

Meanwhile, Sky hammering herself in a Sky-gera-Klick world is not really a sensible play. There's no point to it. Not only that, but it ends the day with lines clearly drawn

against that specific team.

That team doesn't want the day to end early at all, much less as a conscious choice by them. Sky ending the day when and how she ended the day would be really really bad for a Sky-gera-Klick scumteam.


The optics surrounding the gera-Sky hammer setup spew me town and Kawaii scum as well. Gera

specifically

waits until Enchant has placed a second vote onto Sky, and then right after this happens, gera tries to jump on Sky. If Kawaii is scum, this makes plenty of sense - since Kawaii is AFK, gera and Sky

need

two town votes on Sky before they can hammer her - and so when exactly that happens, gera jumps for it. If it's Sky-gera-Klick, this timing isn't necessary and it's incredibly convenient that that team would wait until right after a second town vote was placed to go for a Sky self-hammer.

Finally,

my posting yesterday was actively anti-synergistic with what geraintm was doing with the quickhammer, as well as more fundamentally anti-synergistic with what the scumteam wanted.

I think the evidence points to gera's 4060 being indicative of gera actually just wanting a quickhammer to happen. I don't think gera intends to unvote when writing 4060, I think gera intends to keep his vote there so that Sky can hammer herself. I don't think 'gera voted in 4060 so that he could unvote 20 minutes later' is a reasonable assessment of gera's decision-making processes as a player. He's a fairly straightforward player.
Meanwhile, my 4061 and 4062 STRONGLY disrupt this play. I push for the day to NOT end and actively stop it from happening. But even if you discount that,

the conversation I'm having throughout yesterday is anti-synergistic with a scumteam that wants the day to end early.

I wanted to talk yesterday! I wanted specifically to talk about the possibility of Sky being town and Gimli being scum. Why would I be choosing to push a load of content out that specifically looks horrible upon a Sky scum flip, if the scumteam is actively seeking a Sky flip? Why am I pushing anything against the status quo at all if the scumteam are trying to end the day prematurely and end conversation?

I wanted open conversation yesterday. I wanted to discuss Skygazer vs Gimli. I wanted to sheep Ausuka for the day. The scumteam wanted none of these things and chose not once, but twice to try to go against these things in an organised manner. They did this because ending the day on a high was better for them than letting us continue talking.

[Klick]

catching up

I was targeted by a blocking action and a protective action last night

I asked klick to target me and he either failed to do so twice now or he is lying and he is mafia

rn I think he is mafia

1st, someone targetted you with a blocking ability? but you've never claimed having a role (you haven't have you? i checked the summary posts of claims and i cannot see you having one) so who did that? makes no sense unless they are town and thought you were scum or are scum and thought you were lying about having no role? {i have more unformed thoughts about this}

2nd - ive just checked the wiki for visitor - and it says that you wouldn't know that a visitor has been to you.

so how did you know that klick didn't visit you?

of course, scum prob has a roleblocker

I'll just say it then: klick could've been rb'ed by maf and they chose to kill off enchant and rb klick to implicate him

not too hard tbh

but you said you were targetted by a roleblocker? the chances of there being 2 roleblockers in the game seem small?

With the true answer being 'I thought I submitted my visit to you at the start of the Night but I failed to do so, and defaulted to my list which had Ausuka at the top of it'

I'm not scum with geraintm because geraintm doesn't really get what was going on with the targeting plan last night and I do

That's probably the biggest evidence that if gera is scum, it's with Kawaii. Anyone else and gera probably has a better understanding of Ausuka/Enchant's role interaction than he currently does.

I still stand by the fact that 4225 is gera genuinely not getting what's going on with the roles at the start of today.

[Klick]

Read gera's posting throughout this day phase and tell me he's worried about losing this game.

[Klick]

viewtopic.php?p=11836779#p11836779

Here's the game that primarily informs my opinion of scum!MT. It's from three years ago, I'm aware it's dated, and I haven't reread it to see what my opinion of it is now. But I at least read the post-game discussion where I gave a particular shout-out to MT for her strong scum play. I also say that I think scum played very well in the dead thread.

This is an opinion that I have. I know that MT has a very strong town game, I haven't seen recent scum games but I assumed it only leveled up from that game. I'm pretty sure I espoused this belief in Hollow Knight as well??

[Klick]

if I'm alive f3 I will reassess on everything, I guess.

Thank you, I appreciate this.

[Klick]

re: klick's stuff, it seems clear to me that was never a 'quickhammer' setup. at some point sky just decided to stop trying and that was it, that was not a coordinated action with gera. the timestamps are clear on this, she simply didn't have enough support to continue pursuing. I expect scum!sky with town!klick to further inflate ideas of that being a quickhammer and mafia wagoning her, fueling on his paranoia instead of folding entirely and self voting.

Your perception of the actions of a me/Sky/gera scumteam are very individual. I don't think they would be if I were scum with them. I don't think gera would individually be bussing, and Sky would individually decide she was done, and I would individually be playing to save her. It would be a lot more of a coordinated effort than that at 7p LyLo.

I think that individual-based read on the game makes a LOT more sense if it's just gera and Sky playing scum on their own with AFK Kawaii as a partner. Then they might not have a particular plan.

[Klick]

Yes, gera, more of that

Omg is this meant for the scum pt?????,?

[Klick]

Who am I targeting?

[Klick]

MT?

[Klick]

Good morning! I targeted Morning Tweet, 100%.

[Klick]

I am assuming that regardless of the situation Morning Tweet will not have seen me visit her, because it would have required the cooperation of all three of us

[Klick]

I'd like to hear where Ausuka is at

[Klick]

Out right now, but I'm going to check in here and chat while the kids are napping

Will either of you still be around in like 2ish hours? I's like to live chat a bit

[Klick]

Anyone around?

[Klick]

Pagetop?

[Klick]

Hello
I was hoping for Tweet as well but this is fine

I'm triple checking things but I think it makes sense for me to put a vote down first

[Klick]

I think as scum I'm more likely to kill Ausuka than Gimli because I have more rapport with Gimli and could probably push his buttons slightly better

[Klick]

I think Gimli would be more likely to

want

to see me as town and possibly vote on those grounds whereas Ausuka is more likely to just go with ehat she thinks regardless

[Klick]

I'm not saying it's particularly likely he would choose to do that, but in a Klick!scum world I'd probably be feeling low on options and looking for potential outs however small and I'd be more likely to get them from Gimli than you

[Klick]

TOWN
Combined Doctor Shield
Simple Watcher
Compulsive Visitor
2- Shot Hider
VT x6

SCUM
1x Unstoppable
Loud Visionary
Goon

This doesn't feel like a sensible setup to me? Town feels massively underpowered.

[Klick]

But like I feel like you were saying for most of yesterday that Gimli wanted you to be scum and he was seeing everything through that bias?

Yes there's part of him that wants me to be scum because he has respect for me and would rather think I'm scum than town who has played very badly, and I think that's entirely where his head was at yesterday

But I think he likes me and with sufficient scum play on my part would be much more manipulable than you

[Klick]

VOTE: Morning Tweet

[Klick]

Bahahaha. That's fine I guess. Well played

[Klick]

You put in effort where it wasn't needed. You were the deciding factor at F7 and you chose to bus and also Skygazer disrupted that. The low synergy there along with the setup stuff is what made me just vote

[Klick]

I wanted to vote for you 4 hours ago while I was out and I should have just done that and redeemed myself XD

[Klick]

I'm assuming there was some reason you couldn't use your action last night

I should have listened to that obviously being the case but instead I decided I had enough spice in my life for one game

[Klick]

The visionary thing was a stupid mistake

I would have targeted morning tweet if I wasn't so dumb and just forgot about it. It would have been interesting if it was a situation where I couldn't do that and also kill but it wasn't like that

I guess I got lazy with how drawn out the game was. I could have probably ended it earlier but I felt like it would have also increased the probability of losing by a lot if I had tried that

Oh it was a legit forgetting to target lol

[Klick]

Not fine with my play for most of this game but I'm fine with the result I guess. I think all scum played pretty well considering the situation.

[Klick]

You put in effort where it wasn't needed. You were the deciding factor at F7 and you chose to bus and also Skygazer disrupted that. The low synergy there along with the setup stuff is what made me just vote

Yeah I didn't think it was worth it trying to pivot away from sky there given how I reacted to that pedit thing

I also think not efforting if it wasn't necessary for scum to effort would have made me obvious over time

With the action thing, I don't think there's really anything realistic that could make it.the case. Maybe if I was a Lazy Compulsive Loud Visionary

Er sorry F9. I felt like the interplay between you choosing gera to target but then Sky self-hammering to stop that was very well executed.

[Klick]

Your team wasn't informed at all that all roles had modifiers?

[Klick]

Can you confirm quickly what your role is?

Hider

any modifiers??

I'm x2 shot, does that count as a modifier?

Like this is hilarious if that's the case

[Klick]

Was another thing that tipped me over the edge. I thought it was rather likely that you actually had that info and I doubted you were like 'Informed Loud Visionary' or something

[Klick]

This is why you question the state of things even when it looks obvious Gimliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

(Half-joking I've got no right I was terrible this game)

[Klick]

Fwiw here's my response from earlier Dunn

So what, exactly, do you guys mean when you say I am hallow posting?

From my perspective:
You're posting a lot of questions and commentary, but those questions and commentary don't really seem to produce much in the way of observable reads. When Titus was asking me for specific examples of you solving, it was actually kind of hard to find a decent sample of posts that clearly fulfilled that request. It's difficult to verify that you are developing reads and not just making them up.

(Upon closer reading I think you are indeed doing genuine solving and that's something that can be observed, but I can see how it would be difficult for one to identify it. Especially if one were scum and didn't care that much about finding where you are solving.)

[Klick]

Uhh wrong thread sorry