Mini Normal 2298 - Game Over!

[Elpis]

uhh I looked back, went "this looks bad" and yeah. you suggested I look into Gimli, yeah.
anyways, change of plans, prof just sent out the review for finals and it's kinda a lot so I'm just gonna focus on finishing this semester for the next week, might show up this weekend, but Tues/Wed of next week I'm going all in and solving this game.

@TOWN - if you are town, PLEASE do not vote anyone in the next 7 days

@Whoever cares, I'm going V/LA for the next week - I need to focus on finals (I literally failed an entire semester because of mafia before and that got me an extra year... I'm supposed to graduate in 2 weeks!!! finals timeeee )
(I promise I'm delivering on content/walls of reads when I'm back! I have no doubts there)

Congrats! That's extremely rad I hope the finals go well!

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Peregrine replaces Marquis

[Peregrine]

Hello everyone! I will be able to post more when I am done with my day later.

I’d appreciate it if everyone could provide a summary of their perspectives currently! I plan to read the game but I also would like a jumping point. Marquis’ absence has both deteriorated opinion on him/me and the pace of the game so I feel as if I have something to prove now by offering the correct solution to the game.

From what I have been able to read in the last few pages I have some suspicions of Merlyn who seems to be more invested in defensive posting than solving or replying to Andante, which I think is behavior that a mafia player who needs to only survive and not solve correctly would engage in. This is a shallow read and I may change my mind after reading more but I feel obligated to provide at least something to kick the game back into action so… let’s do this after I am home!!

[Merlyn]

From what I have been able to read in the last few pages I have some suspicions of Merlyn who seems to be more invested in defensive posting than solving or replying to Andante, which I think is behavior that a mafia player who needs to only survive and not solve correctly would engage in. This is a shallow read and I may change my mind after reading more but I feel obligated to provide at least something to kick the game back into action so… let’s do this after I am home!!

I do want to respond to this: All of town is in a need to survive situation, because we lose the game with one more mislim. Normally my responses to Andante's pushes would be to just ask her to vote me and be done with it, but I can't in this situation.

[Merlyn]

Here's a summary of my perspective, which is still up-to-date:

Spoiler: wall o'quotes

Cephrir- my read was town before the claim, and I don't see any reason to think he's scum faking a claim now. Like, what would scum gain from that claim? The only crumb I noticed was the 'doggy' one and I knew you meant to do something with Andante but yeah....if Andante is scum they didn't bite. Too smart, or is actually town?
My single issue with Cephrir was a very early post he made where I thought it was weird he was calling attention to a breadcrumb- I thought you were never supposed to do that. But I do get the explanation that since neighbors don't know their alignment (which I also didn't know till I was told), it wouldn't make a difference. With that cleared he was my only clear choice for town. Some of it is a gut thing- I feel like I read genuine frustration in his posts. When I realized how many wagons leading to town kills he was on, I had to decide if he was the boldest scum out there, or if he was genuinely scum hunting in all the wrong places. I started thinking that it would make sense for him to be so frustrated and also to keep missing if there was someone obvious he was accidentally blind to. And that made me start focusing on Elpis, bc a real life friend could make a great blind spot.

Elpis- I think Elpis has done a masterful job of being active, seeming to be a big contributor throughout the game...but when I started looking for what those contributions are I noticed some things.

Ppl on the Enchant wagon that aren't conf town: Cephrir, Elpis, NorwegianboyEE. I think there has to be scum there. The idea that it was an all-town wagon is too much for me.

Well, I still think this.

Ppl on enchant wagon (frmerly nsg) not confirm town
Elpis

So, if Elpis isn't scum, that was an all-town wagon.
I'm going to point to 187 for more of my thoughts about Elpis, including their response and what I thought of it.
I'm fascinated that Elpis describes themselves as a very emotional person, too- they have no reason to lie about this, and I assume Cephrir could confirm. Because the posting style here is very measured, very calm. This would make sense to me as a new scum, the first time I was scum I thought and rethought and triple thought everything I said.
Their responses today only help me be confident that I'm onto something. This sudden suspecting of Cephrir the second Cephrir shows doubt? Reluctantly agreeing to give up a vote but not making a case elsewhere? Scum has to be somewhere and I think it's Elpis.
I'll post this wall of text before going on to Andante and Marquis

damn, the link above should be 1871. Please also see 1872.

So, this part makes me nervous, because I'm not as confident in these reads, but here's what I think:

Andante- I think they're town. The thing that stands out for me is how much they tried to slow the disaster of the of brian lim. Also, Andante has been right to question the people she questions (I can link to these if someone asks, but there's MANY), regardless of if they are town- she is good at pointing out play that is bad for town and pushing people on their crappy decisions. I also noted that Andante was the first to try and start a wagon on NM and others (yeah, including Elpis) kind of talked over her.

Marquis- this is what makes me nervous. Bc if Andante and Cephrir are my townreads, this makes Marquis scum. I have read their meager 65 posts three times at this point, there's nothing there. I don't think someone would fake shingles or anything, but things were slim even before that. I wish I felt more confident about this but I don't know how. I do have some ideas of how I think a replacement might come in if the slot is scum vs if they're town, so we'll see.

[Cephrir]

my perspective is ive had strong townreads on andante and elpis for most of the game but im now second guessing myself, mainly due to the bizarre norwe kill

[Peregrine]

From what I have been able to read in the last few pages I have some suspicions of Merlyn who seems to be more invested in defensive posting than solving or replying to Andante, which I think is behavior that a mafia player who needs to only survive and not solve correctly would engage in. This is a shallow read and I may change my mind after reading more but I feel obligated to provide at least something to kick the game back into action so… let’s do this after I am home!!

I do want to respond to this: All of town is in a need to survive situation, because we lose the game with one more mislim. Normally my responses to Andante's pushes would be to just ask her to vote me and be done with it, but I can't in this situation.

Hello again!

Yes, the town is in a survival position but they do not have the luxury to merely avoid elimination; they must eliminate correctly, and that mandates some amount of solving that the mafia does not need to do.


The post that made me curious to this was Andante's 2018 which, if I understand, is a point I feel might have gotten a town-you to reply to with more than you did: you wanted to give someone your vote but also were unsure of the vote. It's a worrisome dissonance, to not care to that degree. Or I suppose I would feel uncomfortable giving away my vote without absolute certainty in this situation? You chose to reply with 2019 and 2020 though. And from experience (which I have, but no one gets to know where it is from yet!) playing this way is often mafia's choice, as it's easier to snark than it is to logically rebut.

[Peregrine]

I'm unsure yet how townie Norwee was perceived (what I gather is that he wasn't as townie as some alive?) but I do not think that Elpis would choose to kill him. If not for it being WIFOM for the love of WIFOM, I do not think that Elpis' posts reflect well onto that world. 1869 isn't something that you write if you have at that point the intents to kill the person you're suspecting, and sharing suspicions to. It feels genuine, as does their posting today.


While it may be an act of convenience to say "I don't really know who to vote, it could be this pair, or that pair", paraphrased from posts like 1902 and 1903, it feels like real confusion.

[Peregrine]

I feel like shifting my vote to Not_Mafia to generate some pressure so they talk more would be good

VOTE: Not_Mafia

As for the rest of what's going on...last time I played with Andante they came in swinging hard and being heavily defensive like they are now, and that time they were not just a town, but a power role. This reminds me a lot of that currently, so I am inclined to think that Andante is town, at least for the moment.

The whole exchange between NSG and Cephrir just kind of felt like Cephrir getting frustrated at his somewhat forced upon him reads of NSG being required to be expressed in order to get more information, as well as frustration over the fact that we still really don't understand WHY she's frustrated into not being involved in the first place. However, I did like her latest post a bit more, and I hope she draws more into hunting. I think I read Cephrir as town for the moment, but I still null-scumread NSG, as I just can't truly fully grasp what's going on there.

For a full readlist so far:

Town

Cephrir

Marquis

Fire
Ethel
Norwe
StD

Gimli

NM

Andante

Brian

BPP

NSG

Scum

Also, looking at some of the vote counts I think this is a very curious reads list. Assuming Cephrir is not a mafia and Elpis is, it means that Elpis decided to slot their teammates together at the lower rungs, but just out of reach. This is a typical place for partners to place their partners, but it requires I feel that you play more aggressive than normal to keep killing the town players underneath them. And Elpis really... doesn't give me a power player feeling.

[Peregrine]

(For what it's worth, I feel as if Gimli/Merlyn as a wolf would have played a far more aggressive, anti-bussing game than Elpis who was floating along. )

[Peregrine]

Not_Mafia's posts are not very useful. Even less so than normal.

To tie into my current thoughts, the Gimli vote is a dispassionate necessity to try and survive. I also notice that Elpis was the one who put him at E-1, with Gimli having voted there previously. I suppose it could have been a planned bus, though (which Cephrir was also on. I haven't spoken much about him sans the Elpis' readslist but I think the claim at least makes sense to the setup - it's your insurance policy when you have a lot of vigilantes running around. I feel as if this late into the game though mafia has enough information to claim it without anything going too wrong, but... it makes sense).

[Peregrine]

I am too tired to post more right now, I'm sorry! Please feel free to check or respond to anything I've posted so far. Tomorrow I'll try to eliminate some potential team pairings.

[Merlyn]

From what I have been able to read in the last few pages I have some suspicions of Merlyn who seems to be more invested in defensive posting than solving or replying to Andante, which I think is behavior that a mafia player who needs to only survive and not solve correctly would engage in. This is a shallow read and I may change my mind after reading more but I feel obligated to provide at least something to kick the game back into action so… let’s do this after I am home!!

I do want to respond to this: All of town is in a need to survive situation, because we lose the game with one more mislim. Normally my responses to Andante's pushes would be to just ask her to vote me and be done with it, but I can't in this situation.

Hello again!

Yes, the town is in a survival position but they do not have the luxury to merely avoid elimination; they must eliminate correctly, and that mandates some amount of solving that the mafia does not need to do.

The post that made me curious to this was Andante's 2018 which, if I understand, is a point I feel might have gotten a town-you to reply to with more than you did: you wanted to give someone your vote but also were unsure of the vote. It's a worrisome dissonance, to not care to that degree. Or I suppose I would feel uncomfortable giving away my vote without absolute certainty in this situation? You chose to reply with 2019 and 2020 though. And from experience (which I have, but no one gets to know where it is from yet!) playing this way is often mafia's choice, as it's easier to snark than it is to logically rebut.

I'm not being snarky in 2020? I mean, 2019 is snark city but 2020 is completely serious.

I'm pretty new, so my experience in forum mafia is small, but so far for me snark is NAI. You're hinting you're an alt of a bigger account here though, so maybe I'm wrong. If you do think this is an indicator ('playing this way is often mafia's choice'), I'm curious that you brought up Andante's 2018 without comment given that it's, uh, a little snarky too.

[Merlyn]

Assuming Cephrir is not a mafia and Elpis is, it means that Elpis decided to slot their teammates together at the lower rungs, but just out of reach.

What other teammate are you referring to? We only know NM was scum.

[Cephrir]

I'm unsure yet how townie Norwee was perceived (what I gather is that he wasn't as townie as some alive?) but I do not think that Elpis would choose to kill him. If not for it being WIFOM for the love of WIFOM, I do not think that Elpis' posts reflect well onto that world. 1869 isn't something that you write if you have at that point the intents to kill the person you're suspecting, and sharing suspicions to. It feels genuine, as does their posting today.

While it may be an act of convenience to say "I don't really know who to vote, it could be this pair, or that pair", paraphrased from posts like 1902 and 1903, it feels like real confusion.

i would have put money on norwe as today's most likely elimination

[Elpis]

I'm unsure yet how townie Norwee was perceived (what I gather is that he wasn't as townie as some alive?) but I do not think that Elpis would choose to kill him. If not for it being WIFOM for the love of WIFOM, I do not think that Elpis' posts reflect well onto that world. 1869 isn't something that you write if you have at that point the intents to kill the person you're suspecting, and sharing suspicions to. It feels genuine, as does their posting today.

While it may be an act of convenience to say "I don't really know who to vote, it could be this pair, or that pair", paraphrased from posts like 1902 and 1903, it feels like real confusion.

i would have put money on norwe as today's most likely elimination

I 100% would've pushed Norwe as my elim choice today, had they not been killed. They were my biggest scumread yesterday.

[Elpis]

Assuming Cephrir is not a mafia and Elpis is, it means that Elpis decided to slot their teammates together at the lower rungs, but just out of reach.

What other teammate are you referring to? We only know NM was scum.

I think they're pointing out that everyone else currently alive (aside from cephy) was middle-low on that list

[Elpis]

From what I have been able to read in the last few pages I have some suspicions of Merlyn who seems to be more invested in defensive posting than solving or replying to Andante, which I think is behavior that a mafia player who needs to only survive and not solve correctly would engage in. This is a shallow read and I may change my mind after reading more but I feel obligated to provide at least something to kick the game back into action so… let’s do this after I am home!!

I do want to respond to this: All of town is in a need to survive situation, because we lose the game with one more mislim. Normally my responses to Andante's pushes would be to just ask her to vote me and be done with it, but I can't in this situation.

Hello again!

Yes, the town is in a survival position but they do not have the luxury to merely avoid elimination; they must eliminate correctly, and that mandates some amount of solving that the mafia does not need to do.

The post that made me curious to this was Andante's 2018 which, if I understand, is a point I feel might have gotten a town-you to reply to with more than you did: you wanted to give someone your vote but also were unsure of the vote. It's a worrisome dissonance, to not care to that degree. Or I suppose I would feel uncomfortable giving away my vote without absolute certainty in this situation? You chose to reply with 2019 and 2020 though. And from experience (which I have, but no one gets to know where it is from yet!) playing this way is often mafia's choice, as it's easier to snark than it is to logically rebut.

I'm not being snarky in 2020? I mean, 2019 is snark city but 2020 is completely serious.

I'm pretty new, so my experience in forum mafia is small, but so far for me snark is NAI. You're hinting you're an alt of a bigger account here though, so maybe I'm wrong. If you do think this is an indicator ('playing this way is often mafia's choice'), I'm curious that you brought up Andante's 2018 without comment given that it's, uh, a little snarky too.

To be fair, I think every post Andante ever makes has some snark hidden away in it

[Peregrine]

Merlyn, the issue isn’t the snark!! It’s that it was snark alone! Andante’s 2020 was a question that I think warranted some amount of sincerity as an answer!! Because it is weird to suspect someone but also want to hand over your vote to them, given the amount of trust that should require in Elo.

But you didn’t respond with much more with defensiveness which as I said is a lot easier than it is to do so logically!

And even now it feels like you’re getting caught up on little details, which I am unsure if that is town behavior or not!!

[Peregrine]

my perspective is ive had strong townreads on andante and elpis for most of the game but im now second guessing myself, mainly due to the bizarre norwe kill

Cephrir! I understand that the game came to a standstill for a while so it may have been hard to give effort to solving without a necessary voice, but! Could you please tell me your game view now beyond second-guessing?

It is worrying me that you’re playing this as you are, and by that it feels as if things are hands off! I am worried that you could be doing this intentionally with two people willing to follow you, and that you could be waiting for a point where people throw up their hands and say please pick someone, and if you are mafia… game over!!

Even if this is not the case and you are town I would like to know!!

[Merlyn]

Assuming Cephrir is not a mafia and Elpis is, it means that Elpis decided to slot their teammates together at the lower rungs, but just out of reach.

What other teammate are you referring to? We only know NM was scum.

I think they're pointing out that everyone else currently alive (aside from cephy) was middle-low on that list

Hey Elpis, you've said the Marquis slot has seemed scummy to you- could let them answer questions themselves?

[Merlyn]

To be fair, I think every post Andante ever makes has some snark hidden away in it

LOL yeah she has some snark power. I think this is the most times I've ever typed snark in a 24 hour period

[Merlyn]

Merlyn, the issue isn’t the snark!! It’s that it was snark alone! Andante’s 2020 was a question that I think warranted some amount of sincerity as an answer!! Because it is weird to suspect someone but also want to hand over your vote to them, given the amount of trust that should require in Elo.

But you didn’t respond with much more with defensiveness which as I said is a lot easier than it is to do so logically!

And even now it feels like you’re getting caught up on little details, which I am unsure if that is town behavior or not!!

Hmmm, I kind of feel like you're attempting to trap me in a 'damned if I do, damned if I don't' situation. I have to either allow you to say inconsistencies or be outright wrong, or I can respond and be 'caught up in the little details'.

Andante's 2019 is a question that was

already asked

(did I think Cephrir was scum) and I

already answered with sincerity

(I did not, and I'd said as much BEFORE the mislim). She is quoting a post I made in my first few hours in the game when I had only read to D1 where I didn't even call him scum and trying to use it to 'prove' otherwise.

I still like an answer to my question in 2038 please. And if you could let us know when you've caught up, I have some other questions too.

[Peregrine]

I am busy because of life again (as I am during the weekday! But! I am not interested in catching you in a losing choice! While I am suspicious of you currently I just wanted to share my perceptions of the game, and my goal is just to get it right in the end even if I’m wrong on the way to getting it right!!

I did not answer 2038 because it was a little obvious to me and then answered but! Yes it would be Gimli or Andante paired right next to Not_Mafia which would be kind of weird!!

[Merlyn]

I am meant to take from all the exclamation points that you're shouting? Because it kind of seems like you're shouting.