TM 2023 | Mini Normal | Endgame

[Shirou]

Actually,

Mastina just confirm your result on DGB before we proceed to the fated 1v1.

UNVOTE:

[Shirou]

I don't like this silence.

[Ausuka]

I have nothing to report except that I targeted shirou as promised.

I have a sinking feeling i have been very wrong this game. I am waiting to talk to the rest of my team about things.

[Shirou]

By wrong you think Mastina may be scum?

[Shirou]

You thought she was town before if I remember right

[mastina]

I never thought scum would actually gambit killing Xof...?

Well you thought I was scum and you were wrong, so.

Why would scum ever risk that play is what I'm thinking

Why indeed.

Perhaps It's hypocritical of me to say this but why wouldn't Mastina have targeted me if they suspected me so hard?

About that.

I gave it a thought while I was at work on Thursday.

I was thinking things over while lifeguarding.

And then a thought hit me.

"Bree, Shirou is acting the exact same way you do."
I thought about all the heated 1v1s I've had--and how none of them have been with scum.
I thought about the fight.
I thought about the Freedom townflip.
I thought about how you acted.

And I realized "...Shirou's town, isn't he?"

Now I fully realize that probably means we do in fact just lose the game 'cause I don't have a rat's ass chance of convincing you that I am town, but hey at least when we lose it won't be because I voted you.

Now, last night, I didn't say much, but I did say this to DGB in the neighborhood:
"I can't trust you, but I think I can safely say I think Shirou is town".
I said that Thursday night--when submitting an investigation on DGB.

I didn't get a chance to verify my thoughts by factchecking my memory. I had a bad flareup of the chronic fatigue in the last few days.
But I was thinking about the game the entire time, reviewing. I don't wanna back out of being right on scum, I don't wanna cost the town the game by backing down from scum and then eating the lylo mislim because I don't fight back.

But I reviewed, and I didn't think you were actually scum.

I didn't want to tell DGB I was targeting her, I didn't want to share my thoughts, in case they influenced the scum nightkill.
But I did say what I could. (Hopefully it wasn't too much.)

To paraphrase the post, Thursday night late at night, I said,
"I don't trust you enough to share the details, but I have thoughts. It should be safe to say Shirou is town, but I can't risk saying more."

The full version of those thoughts is basically what I laid out above.
I think Shirou's town. I realize that means the town's fucked and we just lose 'cause I can't convince you that this wasn't me trying to save myself from being eliminated, but I actually did put that thought in and reviewed. (After all, my worldview was shown wrong.)

And if Shirou is town, that would mean someone else would be scum.
With another player, too.

DGB allegedly was going to target DeasVail--so whatever DV's role was, DV wouldn't be able to act, unless DGB was scum.
Which left the invests as either xofelf or DGB. I ruled out Ausuka because Ausuka had been siding with you, Shirou, so either scum were divided on both sides of the debate (possible, but doubtful), or scum were with me.

Both of them sided with me yesterday. So I thought that the more likely.

What tipped the point over was DGB's reaction post-hammer. I remembered DGB saying something like "whoops, lol" which looked fake. (Again, didn't have time to verify, was working mentally through it while guarding.)

DGB is a Lazy Jailkeeper Neighbor. No additional modifier.

Unless Mastina was a literal multitasking and that's why she not only didn't target me but also nightkilled Xof when it was so risky, I completely fail to see how this game makes sense if Mastina is town

The night actions last night only make sense with me as town.

I don't have a multitasking modifier; I have no reason to fear being seen by xofelf.

Even if you want to argue scumastina is just lying about this, then why would I waste a kill on xofelf and leave both Shirou AND Ausuka alive? You're convinced I'm scum; Ausuka thinks I'm scum and trusts you; if I were scum then leaving both of you alive in a 6p mylo (xofelf protected) or 5p lylo (xofelf somehow dies) is a near-guaranteed loss. Especially the 6p mylo.

Working under the assumption of your preferred team callout of mastina+DV (I can run through this math with other teams if you'd like but this was the team I had on my mind),

In a 5p lylo you can argue that maybe I could convince DGB that the team is Shirou+Ausuka.
In a 6p mylo I would need to convince both DGB AND xofelf of that.

"But what about the inverse? With 6 alive, it'd take both of DGB and xofelf to be convinced to vote you."
Well, yes, but to avoid a nolim, someone would need to move in their positions and take a side, and with Freedom flipping town, with xofelf and DGB both at separate times stating I could be scum and showing interest in eliminating me, the side they were most likely to take is to vote me.

As scum, I can't kill xofelf here because it leaves you and Ausuka alive, Shirou. Which is something I never win.

As scum, I can kill Shirou and claim I did visit you last night, but not to nightkill. xofelf would state I was lying, but without you present, a scumastina has a much better chance in lylo.
As scum, I can kill Ausuka and investigate...well, anyone, if I have multitasking. It leaves you alive, but without Ausuka to support you, a 1v1 with you becomes possible to win.

But with you + Ausuka supporting you and both alive--regardless of mylo or lylo--I literally can't win the game. I lose no matter what.

So the xofelf kill is proof that I am town, because the xofelf kill would be an auto-loss for scumastina. (Or at least, a scumastina with DV. Chances would differ with a different scumteam combo I suppose, but mastina+DV always lose with both Shirou and Ausuka alive today.)

I don't really expect you to listen to this, but were you rational, you'd realize I'm right.
A scumastina never wins this game with both Ausuka + yourself alive.
So the question really

does

become why you and Ausuka are both alive.

I said this yesterday;

mastina, when I flip Town, who do you think scum will be?

Well you won't.

But in the event you did, we have confirmation there is a scum in the PRs, potentially two.

In the theoretically scenario where you're town, we get:
{DV, xofelf}
{DV, Shirou} (ahahaha no)
{DV, DGB}
{DV, Ausuka} (no)
{xofelf, Shirou} (I'm pretty sure that's a scumsided setup)
{xofelf, DGB} (probably scumsided)
{xofelf, Ausuka} (no)
{Shirou, DGB} (definitely scumsided)
{Shiro, Ausuka}
{DGB, Ausuka} (no)

So removing the 'no', that would leave the possible teams as:

{DV, xofelf}
{DV, DGB}
{Shirou, Ausuka}

I'd cross that bridge if I came to it solving those teams--but I won't need to because you're not actually town.

I

did

cross that bridge since it actually did come to it.

With me having thought it over and realized you're probably town, then the team isn't Shirou+Ausuka.

With the team as not Shirou+Ausuka, then the team was either DV+xofelf or DV+DGB.

I actually think the team now is DV + DGB.
Not that it'll matter much but for posterity's sake I wanted to put it out there for the postgame bragging rights.

[mastina]

I think Mastina is a multitasking loud rolecop and that's why she had to risk a Xof NK + not target me

If I were scum then I would only need to do one of those--not both.

And, I gain even less from a xofelf kill than you do, Shirou--in fact I stand to lose a lot from that kill.
I lose a potential mislim.
I lose a person who could be painted as being part of basically any scumteam.
I confirm another power role in the game that was previously unconfirmed.
I keep both you and Ausuka alive when you're convinced I'm scum.

Even if it fails,
I lose the battle of atrophy in mylo.
I become suspect because instead of people thinking I am multitasking, they think that I was scum without multitasking that needed to confirm my result and couldn't kill because my scumbuddy was unable to kill. The reason for the failed kill is speculated to be due to the jailkeeper + lack of multitasking combo. Which is bad news for me + DV.

I gain nothing from attempting to kill xofelf, and I lose something regardless of success or failure.

If the kill fails I look bad because people think no multitasking + blocked scumbuddy = no ability to kill, therefore mastina scum.
If the kill succeeds I lose all of my advantages and am left at a severe disadvantage due to both Shirou and Ausuka being alive.

Which means I am the slot with the least reason of any to kill xofelf.

Now, scum leaving you + me alive on the other hand...that gives them a free win.

[mastina]

not to mention all the other "coincidences" I've talked about in D4 but people shrugged it off

Not that you'll care but those coincidences are absolute bullshit and I showed you why yesterday.

People didn't shrug them off.

People looked at them and realized you were wrong.

Not that it matters but hey. Take it to heart. Don't fucking claim that there's anyone to blame other than you. We showed you why you were wrong. We showed you why your worldview was wrong. And you, and ONLY you, are responsible for not accepting it.

[mastina]

Fire isn't quite keeping up with the game but he was skeptical of Mastina being town

Sorry, I meant to say Fire was skeptical of Mastina being scum
He's the unique one in our team to have doubts that Mastina is scum at this point

He's also the player with the most experience playing with me.

In fact, Firebringer is rather proud of his ability to read me.

He's claimed he never gets the read wrong. (Mind you, he was scum in that game he made that claim, so grain of salt there, but he still has made the claim he never reads me wrong before.)

Mind you, I don't put much stock in his claim. Personally I think his claim was absolute bullshit. I don't think Firebringer actually can read me--but he certainly seems to

believe

he can, and he is your teammate so if you don't want to lose the game you should maybe trust him since regardless of whether Firebringer can or can't read me, his read on me here is actually right.

[mastina]

I've been since D3 been in the "Are Mastina or DeasVail scum w/ Koba?" wondering and every day there's just more actions pointing to that direction for me.

Says the person ignoring all the evidence to the contrary including opening today wondering why the fuck xofelf was dead.

Turns out there's actually shit not matching your worldview because your worldview is fucking wrong. Buthey, I won't be the one to cast the game-losing vote.

I will be the smug bitch who won't let you forget who was.

[mastina]

Please just vote Mastina this game is getting to literally ridiculous levels on how everything is pointing a gigantic flashing red arrow that Mastina is scum with DeasVail but we refuse to lim them for some reason.

The 'for some reason' is because you're fucking tunneled as hell and ignoring all the evidence you're wrong in favor of arguing a worldview that you literally have proof of being wrong, repeated proof, over and over again facts not matching your assumptions.

[mastina]

I thought Mastina would have targeted me, and then say that I'm lying when I claimed that she hadn't targeted me.

Yeah, because you're thinking about what you think I'd do as scum.

Problem with that is I'm not, so I'm not doing the actions you'd expect, because I'm not fucking scum.

Like I said.

You have made every assumption about how things went off the idea I am scum.

When presented with things not matching that worldview, instead of reevaluating and thinking maybe your assumption is wrong, you double-down on it without pausing and giving it thought.

And boy oh boy don't think I won't remind you of it.

[mastina]

No matter her alignment having a 1v1 with her again today sounds like the most wasteful way to spend my time, patience and emotional energy.

There's an easy way to prevent that.

I'll never be convinced she's town in this game, ever. If someone claimed a cop clear on her by this point I would argue that it's the cop + Mastina. I'm at that stage on the tunnel already.

It's to not do this, and take a step back.

[mastina]

Yeah I 5hink you and mastina are both town.

Well we are.

But that leaves the question of who would be scum.

My answer's a bit different than yours right now.

[mastina]

HOW MASTINA IS TOWN SHE LITERALLY REFUSED TO BE WATCHED BY THE WATCHER AND SCUM RISKED GETTING THEIR NIGHTKILL BLOCKED JUST TO KILL THE WATCHER
SHE ALSO DIDN'T INVESTIGATE ME

All of those build on top of one another as reasons I'm not scum.

If I am scum, I can investigate you and kill xofelf--I didn't.
If I am scum, I can investigate elsewhere and kill someone else--I didn't.
If I am scum, I wouldn't need to fear the watcher with the watcher being nightkilled--so I could've targeted you.
If I am scum, I wouldn't need to fear the watcher with you being nightkilled--because my odds of winning a 1v1 with xofelf are much much much higher than my odds of winning a 1v1 with you.

If I am scum, the night actions last night make no sense because they all add up to

not

giving me any benefit.

The night actions last night only fit with me as town.

But you're not interested in being told your worldview is wrong despite you literally running through the logic which proves it wrong, so. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Enjoy the loss I guess. Don't say I didn't fucking tell you so though. Nobody will be to blame but yourself.

[mastina]

If that's the case we're losing then because I'm giving all the time in the world for a theoretical Ausuka/DeasVail scum team to hammer

DeasVail was in bed asleep the entire time you were voting me.

No team could've hammered me.

You'll definitely see them (well, DV + scumbuddy) do it next time you vote me, but hey. Your loss. (Literally.)

[DeasVail]

fyi all I’ll be busy during my day today but will have time to go through all this in the afternoon. Based on a quick skim of what happened overnight I may have been wrong on mastina but I see that there’s already a vote there.
I guess this is also me not quickhammering etc

[mastina]

scum!Mastina would have little reason to try so hard yesterday if not to save DeasVail.

scumastina would have little reason to try so hard at all, actually.

Winning a scumgame is

never

worth this level of hell.

That's something I only inflict on myself when town.

Not that you'll care, despite this being a widely-established trait.

scumastina has a long history of being lazy, doing the bare minimum necessary. Stays out of the spotlight, doing almost nothing.

But when I'm town I give a damn.

It's provable, but you won't listen, and I will wash my hands of this game with a clear conscious knowing I wasn't the one who cost the town the game. I literally got a fucking guilty on scum. Can't have done much more than that.

[mastina]

This will be by FAR the biggest coincidences in a scum case of my entire 5 years if she was ever town.

Yeah coincidences tend to line up when you ignore the facts and pretend that the 'coincidences' have no counterpoint, have no flaws, and are somehow perfect in being flawless things that are above criticism.

Your coincidences are absolute shit.

I told you as much yesterday, and literally laid out why.

You've got all the proof in the world that your viewpoint is wrong, but you double-down on defending your viewpoint insisting those coincidences can't be something you're inventing.

So go ahead. Ignore the facts. I'm not the one who has to live with the consequences of costing ten players their game.

[mastina]

There is no longer a single world where one of the scum left isn't multitasking unless it's DGB/Ausuka.

Or DGB + DV.

I'm gonna die on the hill of Shirou and Ausuka both being town.
By virtue of me also being town, that leaves only one team left.

Who sounds most likely to be the left multitasking scum, the person that targeted me knowing the watcher would be on me and they could be guilted tomorrow, or the person that dodged it and will try to come up with excuses now?

It ain't excuses.
If I were scum then I would've targeted you. Regardless of nightkill or rolecop, I'd have no reason to not.
I could've killed xofelf and investigated you--and then either confirmed your role or hard-1v1'd you.
I could've killed you and investigated either you or gone elsewhere--and then 1v1 xofelf.

Both of those are things scumastina could've done.

But you're set on me doing something I stand to gain nothing from regardless of the outcome.

Regardless of the outcome of killing xofelf and not targeting you, Shirou, I am left in a lylo/mylo with both you and Ausuka alive and suspecting me.
Regardless of the outcome of that night action combo, a scumastina literally can't win the game.

But you're too tunneled to think of that so. You do you.

[mastina]

Mastina is multitasking and was afraid of being guilted too.

scumastina can win a fight against xofelf.

xofelf isn't very charismatic.

I put in all the time and effort yesterday which shows what I could do.

Without you, Shirou, what stops me from winning that 1v1 with xofelf?
Ausuka is close to you in worldview, but I only need one town player to vote xofelf--and DGB has been mostly convinced I'm town the whole game.

The winning play for scumastina is to kill you, 1v1 xofelf, and get DGB to vote xofelf.

But that's not what I did because, shocker! I know this will blow your mind but I am in fact not scum, so the night actions which would win scumastina the game...didn't happen...because I am not scum.

Enjoy the loss from being too blind to realize this though.

[mastina]

I was also Mastina top suspect.

Also the key word there is, 'was'.

Was my top suspect.

If I were scum, then EITHER:
I don't kill you and I stick to my scumread,
OR,
I change my read and kill you.

I don't leave you alive

while also

changing my read on you.

But as inconvenient as it may be, turns out when I am town I am interested in winning the game and part of winning the game is not voting town in lylo and part of not voting town in lylo is doing reassessment and realizing the player I was convinced is scum, is actually town.

I know, massive hurdle in your worldview. I'm sure you'll figure out a way to ignore the inconvenience.

[mastina]

I don't like this silence.

Maybe, just maybe.

The silence was due to scum waiting to coordinate a quickhammer.

Just a thought.

I'm sure it won't bother you enough to be dissuaded.

[DrippingGoofball]

All I know is I'm town.

I didn't check the neighborhood at all.

[Ausuka]

By wrong you think Mastina may be scum?

I think it might be you now honestly.

I mean it would just be an absolutely insane coincidence that mafia decide to kill xoffy, when by all means they should have thought they would be protected, and on the same night you decide to gambit by refusing to follow the plan you made yourself and leave xoffy open to attack. Especially in the world you think we live in where the scumteam is Mastina and DV and they have both a town doctor and jailkeeper to deal with, meaning if there's no kill tonight there's a very real risk of it happening again and town getting a lim ahead.

You're probably going to yell at me for considering this but shrug.