Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[skitter30]

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

Why do you think mena could/would do that as scum

Like you said right after, i think his scumgame is more abt vibing in real time and buddying people

I think he's less likely to come up with a elaborate multi-day reaction test depending on a town-slot flipping scum if he were scum

[skitter30]

VOTE: fire
E2

[Cephrir]

Why does it matter for one slot but not the other?

Because one of them did it while under heavy suspicion and the other is obviously town

[fireisredsir]

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

Why do you think mena could/would do that as scum

Like you said right after, i think his scumgame is more abt vibing in real time and buddying people

I think he's less likely to come up with a elaborate multi-day reaction test depending on a town-slot flipping scum if he were scum

because when you look at the actual posts he made most of them were just asking people busy work questions or general theory and not actually doing anything that i think would be difficult to fake

i don't think his progression to get to the point of having the game solved is particularly believable either

i dunno maybe it was due to reading it all at once but it felt a little too on the nose and telegraphed. in 570 he's talking all about how its better to wagon other people than enchant to look for reactions better

then like his next posts are 623 and 625 which look way more to me like someone who just got a fun idea of a gimmick they can pull than someone who has been genuinely planning this since prior to the woo vote

and then he asks people a bunch of questions. and then wowwww he does his big reveal where he says he's being doing that thing which he earlier said would be the towny thing to do

idk im not saying it's a scummy thing to do, i just don't think it's clearing. its like slightly +town but i think his posting overall feels too constructed and i don't see places where i can actually see his thoughts developing and changing. it feels more like he has picked positions to have at certain points and then is doing a pretty good job at working within that framework, rather than those positions developing naturally

[Menalque]

hmm, yes, I think fire is a scumslot consider this a de facto e-1

[Egix96]

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

Why do you think mena could/would do that as scum

Like you said right after, i think his scumgame is more abt vibing in real time and buddying people

I think he's less likely to come up with a elaborate multi-day reaction test depending on a town-slot flipping scum if he were scum

because when you look at the actual posts he made most of them were just asking people busy work questions or general theory and not actually doing anything that i think would be difficult to fake

i don't think his progression to get to the point of having the game solved is particularly believable either

i dunno maybe it was due to reading it all at once but it felt a little too on the nose and telegraphed. in 570 he's talking all about how its better to wagon other people than enchant to look for reactions better

then like his next posts are 623 and 625 which look way more to me like someone who just got a fun idea of a gimmick they can pull than someone who has been genuinely planning this since prior to the woo vote

and then he asks people a bunch of questions. and then wowwww he does his big reveal where he says he's being doing that thing which he earlier said would be the towny thing to do

idk im not saying it's a scummy thing to do, i just don't think it's clearing. its like slightly +town but i think his posting overall feels too constructed and i don't see places where i can actually see his thoughts developing and changing. it feels more like he has picked positions to have at certain points and then is doing a pretty good job at working within that framework, rather than those positions developing naturally

re: bolded: Yeah, this is the main reason why I'm finding it hard to get a read on Mena.

And I'm really liking the conclusion to this post actually

UNVOTE:

[fireisredsir]

i am having trouble believing that the confidence is well-founded for everyone who seems in a hurry here

[implosion]

But I'd also be quite happy to run up Egix right now.

Whatcha need?

Yeah as skitter said, content and involvement. You've thus far gone rep-in -> catchup post -> not much. You voted Delta based on a single post Alianna made, it was pointed out that that post wasn't actually as scummy as you might think and you rhetorically backed off from the read while keeping the vote for the time being, which now you've unvoted.

So as of now you have... 0 expressed scumreads?

[implosion]

I kind of see why Menalque immediately responds that way to fire's 1203 beyond just the post calling Menalque out. It feels like a very overwrought thought process. Like this assertion that Menalque must have had the whole spiel planned out from before the woo vote as town when like, part of what he was doing was asking questions.

like fire, you're saying "I don't find his reads progression believable, it doesn't seem like he genuinely had this planned since before the woo vote and all he does is ask a bunch of questions then give this big reveal" and like. yeah... the point of questions is to change your mind? I think at least part of this is me misinterpreting something but this whole post from fire just feels like either scum having a conclusion that they think they can justify and wanting to justify it, or possibly town who got a gut scumread on Menalque from reading and is now trying to back-justify why that scumread makes sense in the context of his progression without having really thought much about it before typing the words out because the read actually came from gut. And it doesn't sound like that's what fire

thinks

the read is. This probably doesn't make any sense though so alas

[Dunnstral]

Dunn what are ur strongest reads off the top of ur head? Can’t rly tell from a skim

Right now I am thinking

Alianna mafia, Aureal town, Implosion town, Aisa town

[Dunnstral]

oh and MegAzumarill town

[Dunnstral]

Not really sure who else is mafia or if the now fireisred slot is even corrent.

Maybe egix but they have intertwined themself with the fireisred slot

[Aisa]

Yeah I kinda wanna hear from skitter and Mena about the sudden vote / effective vote.
This replacement remains a headache. I feel like the most principled thing to do would be to try to read fire, but realistically if I start doing that they'll probably just end up back in the nullbin with everyone else and I don't wanna let em wiggle out of it so easily
-_-

[fireisredsir]

I kind of see why Menalque immediately responds that way to fire's 1203 beyond just the post calling Menalque out. It feels like a very overwrought thought process. Like this assertion that Menalque must have had the whole spiel planned out from before the woo vote as town when like, part of what he was doing was asking questions.

like fire, you're saying "I don't find his reads progression believable, it doesn't seem like he genuinely had this planned since before the woo vote and all he does is ask a bunch of questions then give this big reveal" and like. yeah... the point of questions is to change your mind? I think at least part of this is me misinterpreting something but this whole post from fire just feels like either scum having a conclusion that they think they can justify and wanting to justify it, or possibly town who got a gut scumread on Menalque from reading and is now trying to back-justify why that scumread makes sense in the context of his progression without having really thought much about it before typing the words out because the read actually came from gut. And it doesn't sound like that's what fire

thinks

the read is. This probably doesn't make any sense though so alas

i think you're misinterpreting yeah

mena is the one claiming that he had it all planned out and that everything was a reaction test going back to the woo vote (see 889). im saying that doesn't feel right based on his posting, and i don't see the progression to where he got to the point he claims he did

i don't think the questions he asked actually led him anywhere nor do i see places where they changed his perspective, and the way he went about asking them felt performative for the sake of looking like he was investigating stuff

you're right that some of the read is gut, my post wasn't meant to be a mena case or anything it was just me explaining why i'm not very impressed by the thing that people seem to be clearing him off of, and why i think it's plausibly something he could do and may choose to do as scum

[Aisa]

So, let me come out and say this:

I think the team is exactly Andy+enchant + 1 with the +1 probably being CSF

but possibly being alianna/aisa.
[...]

I propose flipping in the exact order of

Enchant --> Andy --> CSF --> Alianna --> Aisa --> Skitt

(mostly because I think the early wagon votes are probably all town provided Enchant scum and if it's Andy+Enchant and none of the likely partners are scum it's probably someone good at scum and also skitter surviving 5 nights would be very sun imo)

I hope that my explaining what I've been doing makes sense and there's a calculated risk there because I know I also look partner-y for attempting to divert the wagon. Skitt -- this is why I asked about diverting when I did, because that was exactly what I was trying to do to see if anyone would join. If I need to die on like D4 if CSF isn't scum that's fine, but I think that provided I'm right on Enchant + Andy then the game is probably won like 80-90% of the time.

Ok, questions about this stuff.

1. Why did you scumread Andyslot? What's your read on the slot now?
2. Is there a reason you proposed flipping in this exact order? It seemed really dependent on your exact solve of Enchant + Andante + 1, which even if I agreed Enchant and Andy were likely to flip scum seemed like a lot of pre-flipping

@Mena

I also remembered I never got a response to this and, yeah, think this actually is pretty important stuff for understanding this slot

[Egix96]

But as of right now I'm kinda feeling like:

Aisa
implo
sheep
gwoo

are my prob towns

Okay, coming back to this:

- I can't remember why I had implo that high, he should be more like at the low end of the town pile (just vibes)
- I should have included Andante here, but simply presumed she would be self-resolving due to the PR claim
- Adding Ceph to this because I think he looked townier than skitter in the interactions they had earlier this Day
- fire is townier than Alianna was. I don't wanna go as far as saying "ooh I townread this slot now!" but I did not want there to be a hammer yet.
- I kinda think that Aureal's slot is just obv town at this point, her posting is even better than GWoo's was.

So, seems like that leaves me with Dunn, Mena, or skitter as my vote.

I don't have a case ready yet but I'll

VOTE: skitter

as she's the one I have the worst vibes from atm. (I skimmed her iso earlier so I should be able to elaborate when I have more time)

[Umlaut]

Seeking a replacement for MegAzumarill.

[Aisa]

So, let me come out and say this:

I think the team is exactly Andy+enchant + 1 with the +1 probably being CSF

but possibly being alianna/aisa.
[...]

I propose flipping in the exact order of

Enchant --> Andy --> CSF --> Alianna --> Aisa --> Skitt

(mostly because I think the early wagon votes are probably all town provided Enchant scum and if it's Andy+Enchant and none of the likely partners are scum it's probably someone good at scum and also skitter surviving 5 nights would be very sun imo)

I hope that my explaining what I've been doing makes sense and there's a calculated risk there because I know I also look partner-y for attempting to divert the wagon. Skitt -- this is why I asked about diverting when I did, because that was exactly what I was trying to do to see if anyone would join. If I need to die on like D4 if CSF isn't scum that's fine, but I think that provided I'm right on Enchant + Andy then the game is probably won like 80-90% of the time.

Ok, questions about this stuff.

1. Why did you scumread Andyslot? What's your read on the slot now?
2. Is there a reason you proposed flipping in this exact order? It seemed really dependent on your exact solve of Enchant + Andante + 1, which even if I agreed Enchant and Andy were likely to flip scum seemed like a lot of pre-flipping

@Mena

I also remembered I never got a response to this and, yeah, think this actually is pretty important stuff for understanding this slot

I mean, I'd also be happy to accept takes on what's currently happening in the game if that seems more pressing or useful

[Aisa]

Dunn what are ur strongest reads off the top of ur head? Can’t rly tell from a skim

Right now I am thinking

Alianna mafia, Aureal town, Implosion town,

Aisa town

I'm half surprised you TR me, given your previous comments on my slot. How come?

[Aisa]

Maybe I'm being silly, but I really really really like Egix's 1215 for town

[fireisredsir]

why's that? i felt a little hesitant about it

[Menalque]

i don't think the questions he asked actually led him anywhere nor do i see places where they changed his perspective, and the way he went about asking them felt performative for the sake of looking like he was investigating stuff

I also think ur full of shit, so touched

[Menalque]

fuckin goddamn autocorrect

[Menalque]

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

Why do you think mena could/would do that as scum

Like you said right after, i think his scumgame is more abt vibing in real time and buddying people

I think he's less likely to come up with a elaborate multi-day reaction test depending on a town-slot flipping scum if he were scum

because when you look at the actual posts he made most of them were just asking people busy work questions or general theory and not actually doing anything that i think would be difficult to fake

i don't think his progression to get to the point of having the game solved is particularly believable either

i dunno maybe it was due to reading it all at once but it felt a little too on the nose and telegraphed. in 570 he's talking all about how its better to wagon other people than enchant to look for reactions better

then like his next posts are 623 and 625 which look way more to me like someone who just got a fun idea of a gimmick they can pull than someone who has been genuinely planning this since prior to the woo vote

and then he asks people a bunch of questions. and

then wowwww he does his big reveal where he says he's being doing that thing which he earlier said would be the towny thing to do

idk im not saying it's a scummy thing to do, i just don't think it's clearing. its like slightly +town but i think his posting overall feels too constructed

and i don't see places where i can actually see his thoughts developing and changing. it feels more like he has picked positions to have at certain points and then is doing a pretty good job at working within that framework, rather than those positions developing naturally

incidentally, the whole reason why this sold me on fire scum is not even that I don't believe his read on me (although I don't) but mostly the fact that this entire post is simultaneously trying to imply I'm scummy while making the explicit claim that it's not scummy but it's not clearing

the bolded is the most relevant bit because the "wowwww" part is heavily suggesting I'm scum, he's saying the overall thing is town but that I... wouldn't construct posts as town? but it's still lightly +town for me

it just makes no fucking sense

[Aisa]

Ohooh this game is getting interesting

why's that? i felt a little hesitant about it

Ok, this is spur of the moment and there may have been a tiny little bit of hyperbole in my language, but I liked it because it seemed to be completely unapologetic about having original takes or takes that kinda run counter to the current direction of the game.
Idk, there's definitely an element of gut in the read. But I can also see reasons why a townie would have those takes

What are your reasons for feeling hesitant about it?