Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[fireisredsir]

my literal immediate reaction is saying "there's no reason scum mena would post like that here"

[skitter30]

like if its true you were just busy and moving (gl with the move btw) and weren't able to engage with the thread like you usually do then im sorry and in that case you're probably right on sheep

but that conviction thing + framing the previous game as me being unable to read you when it's literally the opposite of that is just. hard for me to see you believing those things as town

Ok do u vote sheep tomorrow after you flip me?

[skitter30]

Oh fair enuf i thought there was more back and forth after it.

[skitter30]

I retract that point then. I do think that the leadup to that post was scummy tho

[skitter30]

like if its true you were just busy and moving (gl with the move btw) and weren't able to engage with the thread like you usually do then im sorry and in that case you're probably right on sheep

but that conviction thing + framing the previous game as me being unable to read you when it's literally the opposite of that is just. hard for me to see you believing those things as town

Ok do u vote sheep tomorrow after you flip me?

Also i do think that you're not able to read me here of you're town ....

[fireisredsir]

yea i mean if you're town then i will be less confident in my ability to read you and ill also feel pretty bad for replacing in here and then getting you killed

and if you're town then sheep and aureal would probably be the first places im looking but id also be worried bc i would not really have a clue who the third would be

[skitter30]

I don't feel the need to commit to solving the game perfectly. I want you to push sheep tomorrow

[skitter30]

yea i mean if you're town then i will be less confident in my ability to read you and ill also feel pretty bad for replacing in here and then getting you killed

and if you're town then sheep and aureal would probably be the first places im looking but id also be worried bc i would not really have a clue who the third would be

I don't get what the second paragraph is saying here: what are you worried abt and why is pushing sheep contingent on knowing the third

[skitter30]

like if its true you were just busy and moving (gl with the move btw) and weren't able to engage with the thread like you usually do then im sorry and in that case you're probably right on sheep

but that conviction thing + framing the previous game as me being unable to read you when it's literally the opposite of that is just. hard for me to see you believing those things as town

Like i'm talking in the town-me world, where you flip me, you say i'm probably right on sheep
I happen to know we live in the town-me world, so if i get flipped, i want my reads pushed tomorrow.

What's your hesitancy exactly?

[sheepsaysmeep]

skitter can you describe your read on me more

is it mainly dropping off + the way I joined your wagon? I dont remember seeing anything else

[fireisredsir]

yea i mean if you're town then i will be less confident in my ability to read you and ill also feel pretty bad for replacing in here and then getting you killed

and if you're town then sheep and aureal would probably be the first places im looking but id also be worried bc i would not really have a clue who the third would be

I don't get what the second paragraph is saying here: what are you worried abt and why is pushing sheep contingent on knowing the third

the second paragraph is mostly just me saying its hard for me to see that world rn so its hard for me to imagine what id be thinking

pushing sheep isn't contingent on that at all. i think logically you're probably right that if you're town then scum encouraged the push on you bc then that probably just results in both of us dying. and i think sheep is a good bet for being that person in that world

im always hesitant about everything so idk what to tell you

[sheepsaysmeep]

skitter:
I have like 7 more pages I want to read and I think I can do it soon, and then I can probably better answer your question about whether I'd vote fire

idk it's a weird question. I cant promise I'd vote him because my instinct finds him mildly more likely town due to similar gamestate feels and stuff, the wagon feels a bit weird and I just don't rly find myself really convinced by things ppl have said.

I can say like I'd re-think him, I'd feel worse about him. I've already been thinking like, it makes some sense to resolve him because a lot of my townreads just want it dead, which would be reinforced with your flip lol. I think sometimes in a game it's owed to flipped villagers to kill their strongest wolfread. but ive had this conversation before where like, someone (mu champs winner) said that a villager died and had said "please kill this person" so now we need to kill that person, and I refused to forego my minor townread on the person, and we agreed to disagree, this seems similar

[fireisredsir]

skitter it feels like you're trying to make this a point about pairing me with sheep or something but its not like i ever promise people to vote for who they tell me to anyway so idk what the point is lol

ill vote sheep if i decide to vote sheep. he's near the top of where I'd be looking but honestly im more suspicious of aureal rn. and yes if you're town i will take your reads into account like i always do

[sheepsaysmeep]

idk

it's a weird line to me "do you agree to go after my reads when I flip v"

I almost feel it's wolfy but that feels possibly a bit unfair. to me like, idk just something about it feels not right, if you were nightkilled I have some instinct to obey your legacy but I feel like you expecting us to follow your reads as if we would def if we were v is un-intuitive. and your read on me feels a little not fleshed out enough to warrant this, it feels like it hopped from im thinkig about sheep to nuke after I die

[Menalque]

@aureal, @implo, fire votes pls?

I would be willing to do sheep > fire today if that means not doing skitter

[Menalque]

Would much prefer fire tho

[sheepsaysmeep]

Yeah this game needs a multitude of people to meaningfully respond to the wagons lol

[Aureal]

@aureal, @implo, fire votes pls?

I would be willing to do sheep > fire today if that means not doing skitter

*spins, falls down*

I'm trying to poke at a few ISOs, but I feel like nobody's really addressed the concern about the fire wagon that I've brought up a couple of times. Can you go more in depth into why you're still set on fire being scum? He's explained that he was intentionally being more aggressive than needed to test your reaction, but I guess you don't believe that? I still just don't see much reason for scum fire to try to take you down into limmable territory as you said- you're probably the most widely townread slot in the game. If fire is scum, he knows you're town and thus are probably going to just pull out another big towny explanation in response to his push at you, right?

[sheepsaysmeep]

I was going to write about aureal being wolfy but that post resolves a lot of my concerns

this game is just fucked so weird

[Merlyn]

Okay, caught up. I'm gonna focus on top wagon with the time left in the day.
The Fire wagon:
started by Egix, seemingly as a pressure vote for the slot's predecessor. Which makes sense, because after interacting with Fire more, Egix feels better about the slot and unvotes. But before the unvote, three votes happen:

Dunnstral votes the slot with no explanation

VOTE: Deltabreedy

YALL. They never build a case. Go look at their ISO. The two things they say about the slot:

Right now I am thinking

Alianna mafia, Aureal town, Implosion town, Aisa tow

Alianna hasn't been in the game for 4 real life days when Dunn says this BTW. With all the replacement=palooza that went on I kind of get it, but I also kind of don't because they never interact with Fire, never say why the vote happened or why the vote stays. In this light it looks carelessness, like scum parked a vote somewhere and kind of forgot about having to defend the read.

Fireisredsir is being very reasonable but I'm not sure if that makes them town. But I my reasons to scumread their slot weren't that strong in the first place either.

Yooo you have been voting this slot all of D2. Why are you willing to lim based on this?

Cephrir votes with no explanation, and when asked refers back to his case against Alianna in 992 :

VOTE: Delta

I'm not following you, I already talked about why I think that slot is scum and my other suspects don't seem to be as popular

which is fair. I can see this being towny. The thing is, the case in 992 is not enough of a reason to lim the slot. I would want to see some updated reads here, and what fire has done/not done to make Ceph feel like keeping the vote.

Skitter votes- it took me a while to find the case, which came after the vote, but I think it's here (skitter please correct me if I'm wrong):

a lot of alianna's takes were questionable at best. she's very obvious of being town when she's town and contributing, here her thoughts felt a lot more forced
i'm also nto sure she would have replaced as town, and the fact that the slot went thru two replacements is questionable to me

for mena: i feel like you tried p hard to read his posts in not good faith. more importantly, i feel like when you realized you couldn't make it stick, you backed down: you didn't 'have conviction in what you were posting, and i found that scummy

So it's based on: questionable takes from Alianna, meta about Alianna, two replacements meta, not liking the push on Mena. Two of those reasons aren't good enough for a lim (meta about whether or not Alianna would have replaced as town and the slot going through two replacements, we can cancel those right out). The other two are totally valid, but there's no facts presented to back them up, they're good enough for a pressure vote, but for a lim?

Mena indicates they're willing to vote for Fire at this point (the 'de facto E1 post), and Egix unvotes, stating they liked Fire's 1230. So at this point, Fire has three votes on them that range from questionable motives to middling reasoning.

This is when Fire and Mena have a big fight and Mena votes Fire. I see that others have broken this down already, so I won't retread unless asked, but Mena's vote and reasoning seems pretty town to me. The big thing that Mena did not like from fire, though, I kind of thought was fair of Fire to bring up- this post:

In post 679, Menalque wrote:
I think the game is like two thirds solved lol

No I will not elaborate at this point

I think Fire was a little sarcastic with it (the wowwwww thing) and also blew it out of proportion, which pissed Mena off. But to actually question Mena about this post is fair I think. I went looking too see if you ever did elaborate Mena, and unless I missed it I don't think you have yet.

SOOOOOO TLDR:
This wagon is not strong enough for a lim. 2 of the votes seem like they could come from town pretty easily, and two of them are varying shades of dubious. I'm not voting on Fire for this. In fact Dunnstral's weak vote here, added to the fact that I already sussed them from D1, makes them the primary choice for me. Skitter would be a second choice, and I'll join the wagon there if I can't make Dunnstral happen. VOTE: Dunnstral

[Merlyn]

I was going to write about aureal being wolfy but that post resolves a lot of my concerns

this game is just fucked so weird

This is more for a future day, but what concerns did you have, and how did Aureals post resolve them?

[fireisredsir]

i found dunn sus until his post about andante replace out meta which felt extremely like town dunn but he also hasn't really played the game since then and im not sure how much good faith im willing to give him off that

[Merlyn]

Never played with Dunn before, so I won't be trying to meta him. I can only go off his actions in THIS game, and in this game that is a sus looking vote.

[fireisredsir]

but eh i don't really want to lim him its just maybe a world i should be considering more than i have been

[Merlyn]

but eh i don't really want to lim him its just maybe a world i should be considering more than i have been

Okay, I see you're voting skitter. why is skitter a better vote than dunn in your eyes?