Last edited by Umlaut on Mon Jun 12, 2023 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
I'm here I'm following I kind of think skitter could be scum but I'm not fully convinced fire isn't
Game is dense and hard to care about again
Hi, can you elaborate a bit abt where you're holding on fire?
im voting for him what more do you want
In post 1433, Menalque wrote:
I go back and forth on ceph as lazy scum and lazy town
Like he pretty much always can be scum here and maybe he’s just cleverly playing on being null
But even if that is what he’s doing it’s kinda working because I wanna kill the players I think are being actively scummy first before I would kill him due to the fact he could be town who can’t get into the game and/or is just being lazy with it
i wouldn't do this on purpose fwiw. regardless of my alignment i simply do not like this game
In post 1511, fireisredsir wrote:
ok so aureal's two latest ISO dives on sheep and skitter both left me kinda... unsatisfied. they're both just i think way too much summary for my taste, and not enough analysis of what that means for the alignment, or sort of grasping onto overall meanings or motivations beyond just "i like this" and "i don't like this". with both i was kind of left thinking, whats your point?
but, i figured, ive never played with aureal before tho so maybe this is just her style. so i went and looked through a bunch of aureal isos from previous town games to see if this is just how she tries to sort people later in the game
and i really don't think it is
most games didn't have anything like this. the analysis was a lot more clear, most of her time was spent engaging with people and picking at specific points and explaining why she had a specific read on them, etc
there were a couple ISO dives that were explicitly summaries of interactions, but rarely were they done as like, a way to make content
the closest thing i found (across like 8 games) was this post:
In post 639, Aureal wrote:
A few thoughts from some browsing of AV's ISO.
Pretty sure AV is NOT scum with Ranger because of 239 and is probably just town (the opening about Aisa reads pretty towny, are scum going to talk about how they want to read someone, doesn't seem so likely). I just can't see any reason why scum would make an argument directed to their scumbuddy only to have the scumbuddy misintepret it, forcing the original questioner to have to clarify and ask again. Ranger does not look as good for the misinterpretation, though. The original question in 181 and called out to Ranger again in 209 seems pretty clear and yet Ranger somehow digs up 45 and uses it in her response which clearly is not what AV is talking about- he literally quotes the 'freaking out' in 181; and if Ranger only saw 209's question it says Arko putting Oc at e-2 was "earlier in the thread" than the freaking out and 45 clearly is not earlier than the vote in 54.
It's also seeming less likely from this that Oc/Enchant is scum with Arko/Drew, as Oc was the one who triggered Arko's e-2 shenanigans. I could see this sequence as Arko starting to break down under early pressure, then coming back the next day to see feedback in the scum PT that his OMGUS stuff was bad and he unvotes.
I'm thinking Bella is town, though I haven't dug deeper on her yet. Vander/Ranger/Arko makes sense as a team to me. Arko gets pressured early but also seems to have decent support so Ranger defends in over-the-top fashion, trying to get Vander towncred for a heaven vote by bussing Ranger and then hopefully people think Ranger was white-knighting townArko so he has a heaven shot later? The heaven voting is maybe a little weird if so but I think makes enough sense... Drew puts Vander at h-1 and Ranger doesn't hammer, but that could be because obviously Ranger shouldn't want Vander there and maybe Ranger's slot is salvageable once we see Vander was scum, but not if Ranger hammers. It seemed reasonable to wait and figure Bella or I would be amenable to voting Vander. But AV switches to Aisa, Drew votes Aisa to see if that'll get AV back, Ranger obviously can't do anything but vote Aisa, then Bella brings out her Aisa read and Enchant loves hammers.
I'm moving towards voting Ranger but we've got time and she's got stuff to deal with. And I'll keep doing more poking around.
but even this i think has a ton more analysis to it than the two we've seen this game. it references specific posts to make the points, but it's explaining an overall narrative and overall conclusions
i kinda think that stuff like aureal has done here comes when scum aren't really sure how to produce meaningful content and so they just pull up an iso and start summarizing what they see, because it looks long and has lots of links and people think "oh they efforted they're probably town"
maybe i missed a time when this was done? aureal if you have any in mind feel free to point me to them
In post 1520, skitter30 wrote:
Also i actually think sheep looks worse here than fire
what if we killed sheep or aureal instead UNVOTE:
In post 1523, Menalque wrote:
I think a lot of why fire is looking town is because he’s just been active since joining and I think that’s a very bad metric for solving him
I don’t think he’s done anything really clearing and I think that his entrance was concerning enough to be killable + somehow everyone is forgetting that neither delta nor alianna did a good job of showing the slot was town
I would kill sheep > aureal, if that's the direction we're going in then I'll stop pushing fire because I think we should only have one more slot claim today at most
skimmed sheep iso to figure out why i was townreading him earlier. still not sure
i liked his one post about aisa and the fact he's not shoving me in a null bin or worse (i have to imagine scum salivating over mislimming me later here)
In post 1480, Merlyn wrote:
So, the main reason you aren't considering Dunn is bc of Aureal voting Dunn? I don't think that's enough not to consider them. If Aureal is scum, she's a good enough player to feel comfortable throwing a vote at a partner who doesn't even have a wagon on them. That's a pretty low risk thing.
P-edit: I would prefer hearing about why skitter specifically is a better choice than Dunn, talking only about Aureal doesn't seem to be a helpful thing right now. Like, she has no votes on her and we have about a day and change, so the time would probably be better spent on you, skitter, and dunn.
1) that's part of it but also i don't scumread dunn and i think his thing he did with calling andante town for replacing out and just the way he went about it feels very very town to me, even if the rest COULD come from him as scum
2) ive talked about skitter plenty you can find the posts where i explain why i think she's scum
1) Okay, I went back and read the post in question again, we may just not be on the same page there.
I see zero reason scum wouldn't put up a strong defense of a slot they know will be revealed as town- I mean, let's be real, my slot is unlikely to survive the night, it's a good spot for scum to say 'look! I was right that they were town!' about.
I guess it could see more town to me if Dunn had swooped in to save my slot from an imminent lim, but that doesn't seem like how things were going.
2) Fair enough, I can see why you're sticking with your vote. I don't disagree with your skitter posts either, so I get it.
Yeah, this is why I didn't agree with the trs on dunn
In post 1528, Menalque wrote:
I would kill sheep > aureal, if that's the direction we're going in then I'll stop pushing fire because I think we should only have one more slot claim today at most
I agree with the first bit, but unless you now think that fire v skitter is tvt then I don't see why we shouldn't just stay the course.
I think implosion is just town still. I didnt read the scumgame he linked suuper closely but I think theres a noticeable difference in his discomfort and like the depth/complexity of his thoughts
I think fire is toooown, it's not that there's anything he did like "that's really hard to fake", it's just like he said we are responding reallyyyy similarly to some things lol and when that happens on a large-scale it's usually just town. and I find the efforts against him just pretty underwhelming
I think ceph is town, maybe trended down a little
menal is probtown. like at the peak of his exchange with fire, at the wall, he was locktown, prob top town. but I find his recent couple pop-ins that are just "vote red" reallyyyy bothersome and bad faith. one specific example, one effort he made to push people onto red over skitter was "just look at the people on the two wagons." that one bugged me the most because it was like, almost all the fire-voters or intent to do so like implosion had basically ceased playing the game and processed nothing since fire's posting, the people who would vote skitter here are the ones who have credibility in terms of currently actively evaluating, and that was something I was gonna talk about with why red>skitter bothers me so much. and it doesnt feel like his reads are so polarized between the two wagons that he can justify/overcome that disparity
egix is like iffy-town lol, I liked csf and then I sorta like some stuff but I feel like he's being relatively unreadable to me and it means he has to trend into "iffy" territory. hopefully we are around at the same time sometime to converse
aisa is like, my gut still screams wolf, but I think maybe I should just accept she's a threadspewed villager. the really general explanation why I constantly feel like she's a wolf is almost, like, "she's being too reasonable." I find that among big posts with lots of words, it's like ultimately nothing is being said and im often like damn I was excited that there was gonna be a firm assertion at the end, like thus I conclude this person is wolf and it would be spicy, but it turns out there realllyyyyyy rarely is that firm assertion and it sorta just seems like a wolf who struggles to formulate strong wolfreads. reads rarely stick long-term. like I find aisa can be talked out of most things, and sometimes that doesnt feel like a villager with enough natural instincts. BUT a) I accept this could just be playstyle, b) what mainly sticks out to me is that after being like, strongly townread by nearly everyone, aisa keeps playing the same and having lots of motivation and feeling free. not that me doing the converse is wolf lol, but that is like the most villagery possible response and alone makes me sorta feel like it's v lol
I feel like ive outlined the mainnn thing that stood out to me about skitter. like progression on csf is "I feel like that csf post was wolfy" -> hundreds posts later, "I think csf is p wolf" -> hundreds posts later, "csf is prob wolf." between those posts, many people, most of the playerlist, say they think csf is town, the only one she acknowledges is asking me why. I think similar things happen with other wolfreads like me slowly trending down for not being here, with andante sitting at wolf despite like strong reasons some things were NAI just meta-fact-wise.
her response to the wagon is also just, a lot of different parts of just dont make enough sense to me to buy it. there was a bunch of aspects that I cant all think of right now. 1) is just what ive discussed about "push fire/sheep after I die" being performative, and pushing the idea that if people don't push her reads after she dies then theyre wolfy felt especially dirty to me. like, people almost never follow legacy reads on this website lol, let alone when you're the lim, and I really dont think skitter's reads this game seemed like she would be so confident "this must be immediately pummeled after I die." the reads have seemed relatively mellow. 2) I don't buy her reacting like semi-omgus reads, in how she's been like, "fire and sheep are wolves for their pushes on me, the others can be villa." I just do not believe that that doesnt align with her reads too conveniently, and then she's acting as if it's based on the ways we've pushed her rather than prior reads. for example, the way she responded to egix was as if she was going to omgus him, and tonally accusatory, then suddenly he's town. why is aisa hopping on the wagon town and sheep is gross and wolfy? it just feels like conclusions that aren't actually based on how we joined the wagon; if anything I explained myself more than aisa, where I described a paranoia that's been brewing throughout the whole game and aisa just described one mena-fire conversation and allowed that to move her vote. then, people pop in, are reluctant to vote fire and ok with voting sheep, and suddenly skitter thinks sheep looks worse than fire. it's just omgus to try to fire a counterwagon
then you get to like, merlyn/aureal (im just going to bunch them together cuz im short on time)
Merlyn - I was feeling not good previously about the andante slot, Merlyn has been ok
aureal - purest tone ive played with in a long time which is +town
but I keep coming to that push on me as a little bad faith. I think "sheep hasn't been explaining things and his contributions have started lacking" feels weird to assert like that because it ignores context. at first, I was definitely not what theyre describing, I started the game pretty thorough. then, I was like we just need to kill enchant here lol--which could be wolfy, but it completely explains what theyre describing. then, I outright say, im lacking motivation for this game and not going to do much, which could be wolfy, but it explains what theyre describing. to the point where it's wolfy to just be like "sheep is doing these things, these are wolfy things so obv sheep is a wolf"
I think generally, in an omgus-y way, the push onto me feels very wolf-driven. skitter's explanation boils down to "sheep is lacking wim" and that slowly devolved into sheep is definitely wolf here. as implosion described, this feels just, outright shit reasoning when it applies to the vast majority of the game. dunn is playing the game less than he did eod1. ceph is playing the game even less. menal has been playing the game less. implosion is playing the game less. etc.
then a wave of people joins on and I just think there's got to be a wolf trying to take advantage of the momentum
skitter: d1 sheep townread -> sheep wolf -- for which I feel there is basically no justification out there
menal: d1 sheep townread -> I'll yeet sheep today, no explanations
ceph: d1 sheep townread -> I'll yeet sheep today, no explanations
implosion: sheep just trends way down
fire: sheep from top town to light scumlean
Merlyn: from top townread to see's aureal post about me that I don't feel is a very accurate overall portrayal and goes assertively you know what she's right
like obviously there are some villagers / very strong townreads in this bunch but my instinct thinks this push feels gravelyyyy wrong and very on-the-whole wolf-driven, like 2 wolves present. maybe my instinct is wrong because it's inherently omgus-y and omgus is illogical, idk. I see in p-edit that egix has quashed counterwagons away onto me so I am slightly pocketed.
my main problem is that the one big justification I see that makes some people have hope they can actually lim me today: "sheep dropped off!" just starts to ignore stuff at this point like the past 24 hours. I have un-dropped-off while others have more-dropped-off. implosion is someone who townread me, then was skeptical, then read my new content thoroughly, found some of it villagery. fire townread me, then was skeptical, then read my new content thoroughly, found some of it villagery. people who are not engaging closely and then like ok I'll yeet sheep lol just feels like bad play to a point where it's somewhat wolfy
In post 1518, skitter30 wrote:
Also @implo: it's not defeatist and i really, really don't like you saying that like on a personal level.
That's fair. I don't mean to say that if you're town you're giving up on the game (and I do recognize the factors of both RL business and the deadline), and I'm sorry for implying that. If you're town I can understand thinking that this course of action is pragmatic, I just disagree that it should immediately seem to be the most pragmatic option fypov when at that point the numbers would have said that fire would die if you could just flip one person.
Fwiw I'm like, semi-open to looking at third party alternatives *in principle* but I don't really want to because I still think there's alright odds skitter flips scum. I am hopeful that massclaiming tomorrow will be illustrative to what's going on in the game and limming a VT claim is obviously conducive to that being productive.
I for some reason described Merlyn as calling me a "top townread" which is definitely not correct just a townread
I included implosion and red both also just trending me down for "well that makes sense" to illustrate a general trend, but if im right that there's a wolf who's wolf for trying to fuel the momentum it's not in them, their progressions on me read more natural
I just think wolves would definitely try to take advantage of a remarkably empty push on me here, I would be a superb d2 lim for them, and I think that's a really solid pool of like 4 or 5, better than the enchant wagon (Idk if I'll even actually use it soon because I dont personally agree with the pool approach lol but I think this is a good accurate thought)
to articulate better why I first gutted dunnstral town in response to the things u disliked, I think it was his self-meta moment where he quoted like "if anything dunnstral posts more / does more as mafia," and here he's doing like the bare minimum, so at face value I sorta buy this is town meta then lmao
I think in ISO, I sort of scum-lean dunn. I think like, not doing a lot / not keeping up isnt necessarily bad but dunn feels so empty with like a lack of any motivation to solve. like even with ceph there is no desire to be here but I can feel a nonzero wish to find mafia and I feel like dunn has no drive in the direction. I think especially if we look back later game and find the current gamestate was like a trainwreck shitshow then dunn would really closely fit the type of mafia play I would be looking for
In post 1528, Menalque wrote:
I would kill sheep > aureal, if that's the direction we're going in then I'll stop pushing fire because I think we should only have one more slot claim today at most
I agree with the first bit, but unless you now think that fire v skitter is tvt then I don't see why we shouldn't just stay the course.
ok I like this post a bit less now that the pocket wore off
I feel like the reason is fairly straightforward, he thinks skitter is towny and skitter lost fire v skitter
I started andante iso and I was like sometimes I can sorta see skitter's tunnel here! and then I realized she's dropped what she's doing with that slot and it isn't something she wants pushed postmortem
her reads were reallyyy rigid but at the same time they molded to fit public opinion
"Andante is wolf", "andante is wolf", "andante is wolf" *would not gain any steam, fairly unchangeable opinion despite multiple arguments against*. suddenly, btw Merlyn is town
"CSF is wolf", "CSF is wolf", "CSF is wolf" *absolutely no steam." right before death, randomly egix is town
"sheep is town", "sheep is town", "hmm maybe sheep is a wolf" *GAINS STEAM* "sheep is wolf", "sheep is wolf"
andante!slot was the stronger read.
the read on me is newer, relatively unable to be articulated or even vaguely explained, just "he joined my wagon slimy and he didn't have motivation"
the read on andante lasted a longggg time, was well-backed with multiple more-fine reasons such as her thoughts not being buyable, her priorities like sk-hunting not making sense, her townclaims, etc
her legacy: "please just kill/push sheep" ive taken andante/csf place
One advantage of flipping in {fire, skitter} is that we will definitely resolve one of them, lol. I worry that if we flip someone else we’ll just end up having collective paranoia over those two slots again tomorrow.
In post 1513, implosion wrote:
for some reason my eyes glaze over when i try to read aureal's posts :X. I don't think this is her fault but I haven't really been able to analyze them effectively
I think this is probably rather common and contributes to my declining willingness in general to expend effort making arguments. I cannot really think of any times off the top of my head when I had a read and was able to successfully push it, even when I felt strongly about it. I spend a lot of time writing up stuff only for it to be ignored/scoffed at/scumread. So I just don't really bother so much anymore, because it feels bad to effort with such poor results.
Like, I don't think I'm even really trying to make a case here, fire is right. I have no expectations of anyone being convinced by what I say. That ISO stuff is literally just my notes for myself and if someone else gets something else out of it, swell. Lots of it is stuff that I just wanted to make note of because it could be more helpful in the future after more flips. I did enough to figure out what direction I'd go, which is what people wanted to know and obviously something I should do anyway. It's day two, there's just not that much of a direction for me to focus in yet with no scum flip.
I do like sheep's big new post though. Sigh.
I wonder if we're going to get flavor in the yet to arrive vote count at the page top, and miss I because it got filled in later.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.
I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.
If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.
P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.
In post 1513, implosion wrote:
for some reason my eyes glaze over when i try to read aureal's posts :X. I don't think this is her fault but I haven't really been able to analyze them effectively
I think this is probably rather common and contributes to my declining willingness in general to expend effort making arguments. I cannot really think of any times off the top of my head when I had a read and was able to successfully push it, even when I felt strongly about it. I spend a lot of time writing up stuff only for it to be ignored/scoffed at/scumread. So I just don't really bother so much anymore, because it feels bad to effort with such poor results.
Like, I don't think I'm even really trying to make a case here, fire is right. I have no expectations of anyone being convinced by what I say. That ISO stuff is literally just my notes for myself and if someone else gets something else out of it, swell. Lots of it is stuff that I just wanted to make note of because it could be more helpful in the future after more flips. I did enough to figure out what direction I'd go, which is what people wanted to know and obviously something I should do anyway. It's day two, there's just not that much of a direction for me to focus in yet with no scum flip.
I do like sheep's big new post though. Sigh.
I wonder if we're going to get flavor in the yet to arrive vote count at the page top, and miss I because it got filled in later.
for what it's worth I have read ur posts fairly in-depth this game. but also generally I skim over like 80% of wall posts lol
I think they can be used well in combination with shorter posts
and as time goes on I personally got better at like getting people to look at them when I wanted them to and it gets a bit more effective
Wait
22 hours to deadline? I knew it was close but I thought it was more like 48
Well then, I guess we won't have the problem of everyone being indecisive for too long.
On phone so selective quote doesn’t work (wish they would fix this) but @sheep
“the people who would vote skitter here are the ones who have credibility in terms of currently actively evaluating, and that was something I was gonna talk about with why red>skitter bothers me so much. and it doesnt feel like his reads are so polarized between the two wagons that he can justify/overcome that disparity” I didn’t really understand what you were saying here
Both the first sentence and the second
What do you mean by the people who “have credit in terms of actually evaluating”?
And “it doesn’t feel like his reads are so polarised he can overcome the disparity”? What disparity?
Also I feel my explanation has been fairly clear if not crystal, and is also related to D1 which I know I explicitly mentioned when talking with fire.
Part of the reason I thought you were townie D1 was your relationship with the enchant wagon. After enchant flipped town, that obviously was no longer clearing. Here I think you’re more null scum than necessarily actually scum, but I think skitt is town, fire is scum, and you are actively being a problem in terms of limming scum and working in favour of limming town from my best guess
If I can’t lim the person I would most like to lim and my best guess at where scum actually is then you’re someone I’m willing to compromise on in the hope that a town who is currently wrong on fire is also wrong on you
