In post 2442, fireisredsir wrote:
i think ive found a recognizable pattern of play that sheep likes to apply to people in order to build connections and generate content. see interaction with aisa starting in 482
i would be pretty willing to bet that he doesn't do this in this way to a partner so im gonna look for more of these
okay, before anything else, I just want to make this point -- if you are a PR and are claiming VT right now you should claim because (1) you're making the entire town think there is only 1 scum left when actually there are 2 and (2) your claim is going to be dubious when you do eventually make it
not saying I think this is likely but I want to be 100% (or as close as possible) on whether there are 1 or 2 scum left because that does change the way that previous day phases should be seen. I actually find myself agreeing with fire here but if there were only 2 scum from the start the amount of impact they'd have had throughout is significantly diminished
In post 2442, fireisredsir wrote:
i think ive found a recognizable pattern of play that sheep likes to apply to people in order to build connections and generate content. see interaction with aisa starting in 482
i would be pretty willing to bet that he doesn't do this in this way to a partner so im gonna look for more of these
What do you think of page 89?
im not sure
i think under the pressure of being limmed he would act different and it's harder to judge if it was antispew or genuinely trying to force out a town
it doesn't feel like the thing i was talking about bc thats more of a midgame thing to establish presence in the game
idk i need to keep reading to see how things got to the point of sheep vs aureal
In post 2402, fireisredsir wrote:
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
but still
I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow
What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.
It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.
In post 2423, Dunnstral wrote:
I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.
hard for me to envision why a mafia dunnstral decides to try to shoot down two of his mislim options i guess he could turn around on it later but why
I don't think Dunn really needs to add to the pressure on fire here. He is, once again, the likely yeet.
And why would you think he wouldn't turn around later if need be, he already has. It's not like he's giving highly thought-out reasoning for these views- heck, he literally says it's preliminary views, that's basically telling you to not be surprised by changes later.
Already has? His one post since then doesn't seem relevant
What are you talking about? Why are you giving an arbitrary cutoff where apparently any earlier opinion changes don't count? I think it's clear from end of d3 that Dunn is fine changing his mind at pivotal moments and don't know why you seem dismissive of it happening again.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
In post 2394, Aisa wrote:
I too think Aureal looks a bit townier in light of the flip. Two reasons for this:
1. I don't think her behaviour towards sheep looked especially partnered,
2. Just knowing that sheep was mafia kinda snaps me out of the trance of "Aureal might be scum!!1" and, I think, takes power out of the case on Aureal.
It's heartening to see that Ceph's newest posts also have a sense of this
In post 2355, Cephrir wrote:
2. Because aureal's meltdown makes even more sense if her partner is getting run up too
I still wanna ask why you think / thought this
it feels kind of self explanatory... she'd have no positive way out of the situation, be actively losing the game and feeling helpless about it, and maybe even want to make some bad posts in order to die if she thought sheep had more longevity
I needed to let this simmer for a bit.
Unclear to me who they'd think had more longevity if the team were sheep / Aureal.
Skimming her end-of-day posting from yesterday, I think I'll stick with my opinion that it was >rand a town reaction
Here's a current readslist because why not??
{Mena, Aureal}
{Ydra, Ceph}
{fire, Dunn}
but this will change quite easily.
Mena: I remember thinking his scumread on Andante was quite pure.
Aureal: Maybe towny end-of-day reaction. Also some other posts that would be effort for scum to fake interspersed throughout. I think I remember something about her mindset seeming towny in general, liking some of her explanation / motivation for things even when I disagreed with the thing itself. I hope I remember what I meant here if anyone asks about this.
Ceph: I don't remember why I townread him. All I remember is that every time I am tempted to scumread him he makes a post that makes me think "oh okay, maybe he's not scum then".
Ydra: still think this slot is slightly towny due to CSF's posting, but does seem like a place where I could be wrong.
fire: I think this slot is just too cursed now to ever get out of the PoE. I remember not loving his reactions to things end of last day.
Dunn: This slot has been in my nullbin forever and I should probably fix this.
In post 2402, fireisredsir wrote:
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
but still
I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow
What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.
It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.
In post 2445, fireisredsir wrote:
i think CSF's positioning around enchant is fairly scummy actually in hindsight around post 850 and i think sheep may have kinda noticed and tmi'd it a bit in 875 (and then never really revisited this take)
What about 850 do you find scummy? It's just saying she can't read Enchant. It seems like a pretty bland not taking of a position, which is a pretty common thing, scum or no.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
In post 2402, fireisredsir wrote:
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
but still
I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow
What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.
It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.
And now that I know there are only 2 scum it's an even less compelling argument than it was before. That's not even enough for "resistance" to exist
???????????
What does the number of scum have to do with anything? Townies can't resist a wagon? Huh?
.......
What difference does it make if townies resist a wagon? That's not what resistance means when players use it to scumhunt. They mean "this wagon isn't happening and I think it's because scum don't want it." I can't see what possible use town aligned "resistance" would have to anyone's analysis lol
In post 2423, Dunnstral wrote:
I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.
hard for me to envision why a mafia dunnstral decides to try to shoot down two of his mislim options i guess he could turn around on it later but why
I don't think Dunn really needs to add to the pressure on fire here. He is, once again, the likely yeet.
And why would you think he wouldn't turn around later if need be, he already has. It's not like he's giving highly thought-out reasoning for these views- heck, he literally says it's preliminary views, that's basically telling you to not be surprised by changes later.
Already has? His one post since then doesn't seem relevant
What are you talking about? Why are you giving an arbitrary cutoff where apparently any earlier opinion changes don't count? I think it's clear from end of d3 that Dunn is fine changing his mind at pivotal moments and don't know why you seem dismissive of it happening again.
You said the same thing yesterday and then they weren't eliminated, mostly because I changed my mind and pushed against it rather than pushing for it IMO
Your point about resistance on fire makes no sense if you're not saying mafia did it
- I can't remember why I had implo that high, he should be more like at the low end of the town pile (just vibes)
- I should have included Andante here, but simply presumed she would be self-resolving due to the PR claim
- Adding Ceph to this because I think he looked townier than skitter in the interactions they had earlier this Day
- fire is townier than Alianna was. I don't wanna go as far as saying "ooh I townread this slot now!" but I did not want there to be a hammer yet.
- I kinda think that Aureal's slot is just obv town at this point, her posting is even better than GWoo's was.
So, seems like that leaves me with Dunn, Mena, or skitter as my vote.
I don't have a case ready yet but I'll
VOTE: skitter
as she's the one I have the worst vibes from atm. (I skimmed her iso earlier so I should be able to elaborate when I have more time)
Hm maybe not.
I was thinking if fire is town scum would have wanted to make sure skitter goes over there, but the only possible scum vote aside from sheep fmpov is this one, the first one which I think comes prior to wagon viability
i think that in the context of how sheep spoke about fire would be really weird if they were partners together and i view the initial strong townread that wobbles into an inevitable “fire can die” probably speaks to aureal being +wolf especially in a two mafia world
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
It's not like he's giving highly thought-out reasoning for these views- heck, he literally says it's preliminary views, that's basically telling you to not be surprised by changes later.
