Post
Post #2006 (isolation #200) » Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:44 am
Postby Aisa »
Misc thoughts:
- I'm also maybe willing to think about voting Dunn or sheep? Haven't absorbed fire's Dunn towncase yet. sheep kinda vibes town but man it's day 3 and I feel like he's spent half the game making his mind up on me (<3)
- The explanation for why we shouldn't massclaim makes sense to me, #nomassclaim
- I think that if fire is town, then Mena looks a bit worse. (Which, ironically, makes me a bit way of Mena regardless of fire, because I dislike completely clearing slots off associatives.) When I think back on why I've felt some pressure to lim fire, it feels like a lot of it has come from Mena. That doesn't mean Mena is scum. But that got me thinking that he seems more confident on scum!fire than the situation warrants to me.
- The way implosion has handled the massclaim discussion looks towny. Not the part where he explains the setup, he obviously does that as both alignments, lol. Specifically the mindset in '73 and '80, and the fact he thought of '76 at all. (Just in case the quintillion reasons to townread him so far were not sufficient. )
In post 2003, Aisa wrote:
(Which brings up an interesting point: maybe if we eliminate Aureal today and she is scum, then her interactions with fire can help take the sting out of our collective paranoia of fire.)
man this is what I thought about skitter lol
Yeah there is a certain irony if I'm helping fire wiggle out of it again
In post 2003, Aisa wrote:
If he's scum it seems like his only strategy has been to talk expend effort talking about how towny certain people are and how hard this game is to solve. This... just doesn't seem like scum behaviour.
I think this is pretty reasonable. It's entirely possible that I'm being too obstinate. But I do still hold reservations; I think if fire got to today as scum, this is how fire would play today as scum. My impression of fire is biased in many ways, part of which is because I perceive fire as approaching the game of mafia in some ways similar to how I do, in that fire if scum is sort of trying to make the locally next best move without needing to think about the bigger picture necessarily because the bigger picture for fire is that fire needs to get townread and the way to do that is to act, in each moment, how fire would act as town. And I think fire, if scum, thinks that fire, as town, would just be going along like they've been doing in this day.
I do sort of wonder what they'd say about their own meta in this regard/if they think this is how they'd be playing today as scum.
Aisa wrote:The bolded is false, hopefully this should be clear with the quote surgery I've done. I don't think I need to explain why someone forgetting what they've said is a little worrying.
It's a little worrying but I think there is also possibly some +town justification in it; in particular I think carelessness is townish as scum probably on average tend to be more careful to not say something factually wrong because it's their entire job. I guess this case is sort of a strange thing to forget that she had written. Idk, I don't put a ton of stock into this bit.
Aisa wrote:These are (IMO) some key moments in her trajectory today. 1. "let's talk not auto-elim fire", 2. pushes Ceph, 3. when I tell her that Ceph seems town she seems very happy to change back onto fire again. I'm specifically worried by the "I don't see how it's compatible but if you do I'll let it go"; this isn't how I would react I think. Usually when a player I respect disagrees with me I consider the merits of what they said to determine what to do. Sometimes there's some angst because I might find it hard to go against them. Here we have the opposite: she seems quite confident in disagreeing with me, but still lets it go and is quite happy to switch onto fire.
This... strikes me as how I'd instinctively play today if I were scum and fire was town. And also very much not how I'd want to play if I were scum with fire.
(Which brings up an interesting point: maybe if we eliminate Aureal today and she is scum, then her interactions with fire can help take the sting out of our collective paranoia of fire.)
Feedback please
I think this point has merit. I do think it's possible for Aureal to be doing this with both her and fire as scum; I think if fire is scum then scum will feel like they need at least one person bussing, because there'd probably be a bit of doom in the air around fire's slot and someone would need to capitalize on that. Like Menalque, one of the townbloc, was talking about how if we don't lim fire today we ought to be autolimming fire tomorrow or whatever (don't quote me on this, idr the exact phrasing)
Well, I appreciate you cooling my enthusiasm a little. I think these all valid points.
One new angle I've decided might be interesting is... the choice to prioritise investigating if he feels good "confidently clearing" you/implosion and me. That feels like it must have been a very... calculated choice? idk how to explain this, my intuition is just telling me there may be something interesting there. I kind of wonder if there's more town or scum motivation behind a choice like that.
Post
Post #2080 (isolation #203) » Thu Jun 22, 2023 9:04 am
Postby Aisa »
In post 2078, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
tbh my interpretation of that is that it's the right thing to do here. like focusing on the towncore and ensuring that you feel good about it is what I'd expect town in that situation to start with, and I think fire also sees it as what town would do here so I think it's NAI
In post 2079, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
fire coming into today and being like "ive realized this person, bob, is a wolf" and pummeling them and casing them would never have saved himself over bob
the only way to possibly save himself is to do like a full re-eval solve of the whole game
a full re-eval solve of the whole game starts with double-checking the townreads
Maybe? I kinda see what you mean though it's not obvious to me that a full re-eval solve of the whole game has better chances of saving him in this situation
In post 2003, Aisa wrote:
VOTE: Aureal
I started writing half of this thought dump like 12 hours ago and it's... interesting to see what has happened in the interim
How my thoughts got to this point
(skip if walls make you sad)
Spoiler:
It seems like I somehow tricked you suckers into hard townlocking me, so I can skip the step where I apologise for being chaotic bwahahahaha
Anyway. fire doesn't seem all that scummy anymore. I thought his initial meta on me was extremely flimsy, and once I locked in {implosion Aureal Egix} as town there weren't many other places where it made sense to me to eliminate anyway. But his updated meta is better, and he didn't continue pushing me. That got me thinking about how it doesn't feel like he's been pushing any sort of agenda today. He hasn't really proposed an alternative solve, or done anything. If he's scum it seems like his only strategy has been to talk expend effort talking about how towny certain people are and how hard this game is to solve. This... just doesn't seem like scum behaviour.
I still have worries, of course. I'm worried about how bad for the gamestate (sorry) fire vs skitter was if it was a TvT. I'd need to reread that to get a better sense of whether it was something fire accidentally got sucked into (better).
I also have worries about my new push. For a while in my head Aureal was the mafia industrial complex's chosen mislim, and I still worry that I am playing into that. It feels like this is an elimination that might actually
happen
. Could it be that easy...? If Mena and implosion are town where is the opposition to the wagon...? But maybe it is that easy, I don't think it's possible to tell right now.
A.
You have totally lost me here. I keep getting reassured that you're town because you keep finding ways to track my thoughts well but you're way off here. I don't understand why you don't think fire's behavior can be scum there. And more distressingly, I don't understand why you were worried I was the "chosen mislim" because I have not felt that way at all. Up until this point I have not felt at any real risk of being miseliminated. So this feels alarmingly like preemptive self-defense.
In post 1043, Aureal wrote:
[...]
I'm watching implosion be a clear driver of the wagon on Enchant and going "scum wouldn't be
that
brazen... Right?" So I'm not like totally sold on implosion, it is kinda weird that there's apparently no counterwagoning, but probably not a Mafia slot?
[...]
The reads on Mena and implosion are both kind of hedgy.
In post 1344, Aisa wrote:- Feel free to address any of my megapost!
[...]
The Mena/implosion hedging I'm not completely sure what you mean?
I don't even talk about implosion in the post you cite.
I think I worded my comment about Mena poorly though - I was saying that we could consider Mena as being on the Enchant wagon (as implosion had suggested in 949 and I was vaguely remembering since I was reading some new stuff as I did my catch-up). Not anything about Menalque's alignment- I was putting him down as town for that and the read has only gotten stronger since to where he's my strongest townread.
[...]
The bolded is false, hopefully this should be clear with the quote surgery I've done. I don't think I need to explain why someone forgetting what they've said is a little worrying.
1) There's no bolding so I'm not entirely sure what you're talking about.
2) I'm going to assume it's the implosion thing because I went back to those posts and I think it's pretty clear that I didn't understand what you were referring to and was responding in response to the post you quoted
below
your comment, not the one above it, which does have me talking about implosion unlike the one below it.
3) If this was unclear, why wait so damn long to bring it up. That feels like a gotcha attempt.
4) I lost the beginning of this post and had to re-write it because I clicked back to read yours again and then clicked the link to find the post in question and read it to figure out what was going on...
These are (IMO) some key moments in her trajectory today. 1. "let's talk not auto-elim fire", 2. pushes Ceph, 3. when I tell her that Ceph seems town she seems very happy to change back onto fire again. I'm specifically worried by the "I don't see how it's compatible but if you do I'll let it go"; this isn't how I would react I think. Usually when a player I respect disagrees with me I consider the merits of what they said to determine what to do. Sometimes there's some angst because I might find it hard to go against them. Here we have the opposite: she seems quite confident in disagreeing with me, but still lets it go and is quite happy to switch onto fire.
B.
You think I was pushing Ceph? I was pushing fire well before that, during that, and after that. That was not a switch. I was never voting Cephrir. That was a "fire is scummy oh and hey look Ceph is being weird too, could be a partner?" I found fire's commentary there to be most out of line with reality, not Ceph's. My perception of Ceph's day two goes something like: feuds with skitter-> nitpicks me over what he and implosion were doing with Enchant-> complains about not being into this game and it sucks and he doesn't wanna have to think-> hammers skitter. Nothing about trying to start counter-wagons in it. And I was apparently one that he was trying to start, that's the sort of thing I tend to notice! That's how crappy of an attempt to wagon someone else it was, the target didn't even notice it.
And you're misrepresenting what I did, too. You said that you understood Ceph's position that I was arguing about. When someone else says they understand the position that you do not understand, does that not make you think maybe the position isn't as outlandish as you thought? I did not switch from pushing Ceph, I stopped arguing that point (mostly). I think it's clear from our brief exchange afterwards that I did not just simply accept your position that Ceph
is town
, I just moved on from that particular argument.
A. I mean, I am not totally ruling out that fire can be scum here by any means. I am, however, impressed by the amount of effort that's gone into e.g. the meta case on me especially if he's not even gonna push me based on it by the end.
The reason I felt that you might have been the "chosen mislim" is that at least fire and Ceph were pushing you. Put it another way - if fire is scum and was trying to push a mislim, who was he pushing if not you? I did not mean "chosen mislim" in a sense that it necessarily had to be a successful effort to get you miseliminated - think of it as "scum-driven counterwagon", I guess.
1) my bad. I've bolded it now just in case that makes it easier for future readers...
2) ok, I suppose that makes sense
3) initially I thought you'd just made an honest mistake. Then I got more worried and decided to bring it up, I guess. Especially as I thought of a couple other posts I wasn't sure about so it started to seem more like part of a significant pattern rather than a one-off.
4) sorry
B. Ok. I think that all possibly makes sense? I need to think about it.
In post 1852, Menalque wrote:
Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days
I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?
If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now
If we lim town today and it's a 3-person scumteam I consider the game basically lost. Of course we should play on tomorrow for the 23% chance it's only a 2-person scumteam. But just to say that I'm not an "even if fire is town" gal.
In terms of major events, fire claimed townie (I forget if he already claimed this yesterday?)
And idk some reads have shifted, everyone seems more interested in Aureal?
Seconding that Ceph should explain why fire is town if he feels so strongly about it
why is the game basically lost? it's just Elo everyday from that point on, that's not lost by any means
thank you for the recap on what's been going on
Oh just because the EV of mountainous 4v3 is pretty low - 5.7% for town. (For some reason I thought it was 3%? Which would have been even worse)
Post
Post #2083 (isolation #206) » Thu Jun 22, 2023 9:32 am
Postby Aisa »
All I want is a clever SE to solve the game and tell me who to eliminate today, but I guess that's not happening
This game makes me tingly like acupuncture rn
In post 1852, Menalque wrote:
Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days
I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?
If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now
If we lim town today and it's a 3-person scumteam I consider the game basically lost. Of course we should play on tomorrow for the 23% chance it's only a 2-person scumteam. But just to say that I'm not an "even if fire is town" gal.
In terms of major events, fire claimed townie (I forget if he already claimed this yesterday?)
And idk some reads have shifted, everyone seems more interested in Aureal?
Seconding that Ceph should explain why fire is town if he feels so strongly about it
why is the game basically lost? it's just Elo everyday from that point on, that's not lost by any means
thank you for the recap on what's been going on
Oh just because the EV of mountainous 4v3 is pretty low - 5.7% for town. (For some reason I thought it was 3%? Which would have been even worse)
So, uh, why would we assume mountainous? It would only be mountainous if there's only one more PR and they get killed. There could be plenty of PRs out there yet.
The EV of mountainous is much easier to calculate than the EV of a non-mountainous game while being a reasonable approximation.
Post
Post #2158 (isolation #209) » Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:40 am
Postby Aisa »
On reread Mena seems townier
My Ydrasse towncase, very briefly, based on CSF and which I was going to do several days ago:
I don't know how accurate this still is, but the last time I played with CSF I got the impression she did not like playing as scum and does not have much WIM as that alignment. I am basically townleaning the slot based on the fact her ISO has several analysis posts that signal to me she was interested in the game and inquisitive. One example is the post below:
I think people tend to townread people who push the game out of RVS and being active in the early game, and that doesn't make them scum. I have some difficulty thinking Dunn genuinely believes that
The "your nullreads are actually scumreads" point felt like splitting hairs
also a thought that crossed my mind earlier was did Dunnstral really see Alianna's readslist, open up activity overview, and cross check it? I feel like this is a kind of read that is more likely to come from someone who had already read the entire game and had a sense of who was active and who was not, but he claimed he didn't do that
he was also one of the people who threw out a fast townread on Woo, and while I realize not all of those people are going to be scum, he's also not towny out of that group
(2) what do you like about Alianna?
I went to quote some posts out of her ISO that I liked for you, but uh, on the whole she feels more reactive than I remembered. Here are some posts I remember liking though-
In post 209, Alianna wrote:
Current reads: Andante is towny because reasons, Aisa and Invisibility are towny because vibes, Doc and CSF are ever so slightly north of null (Doc because I kind of want to trust Aisa's meta read and CSF because 151 is a good post), and
skitter might be sus but I need to re-read her ISO.
Meh, skitter can go back in the nullbin.
One question though Alianna, shouldn't you have a meta read on me by now and not have to trust another player?
If you think I should have a meta read on you, do you have a meta read on me?
I liked how she responded to Drew's question in 227, and then she actually flipped the question back to her interrogator!
In post 259, Alianna wrote:
I don’t agree with the idea that Andante is obvious town or that Invis is tunnelling her, but I don’t necessarily think Andante making those assertions is scum-indicative.
I think this is a good post. I think instead of honing in on some things in her ISO that maybe don't feel consistent, she takes a more holistic approach. It was very similar to how I felt at that point in the game
In post 254, GuerillaWoo wrote:
The wagon on Andante's pretty good, but Drew has said he wants to catch up so I don't know why he's being wagoned either.
Came in with some brazen stuff and immediately self-declared obv town. The assumption ig is that scum wouldn't engage in any bravado or start questioning TRs on themselves? But that assumption is worth more when it's not Andante just saying "So what I did just now makes me locktown". It comes off as awareness of reads on yourself, and like, feigning confidence in RVS is just super easy to do. She did this after saying Implo is tryharding early.
It's a solid place for a wagon.
I need to reread the thread and try to figure out if I have any town reads based on anything said that early. I think Invis and skitter saw the logic in
not
seeing the logic in Andante's posts, but I'm not sure if there were any more, and I don't have a better yardstick for townie behavior thus far.
If you think Andante is a good wagon, why did you never vote her?
Good post
In post 305, Alianna wrote:
Not interested in Andante wagon because I think she's town. The votes there are all meh for different reasons.
Drew wagon is somehow even more meh.
Cephrir and Invis are voting there because...why?
Woo wagon feels slightly better, at least on CSF's side. 250 raises some good points. Doc's 285 feels a little tinfoily though lol.
Not much explanation for this one idk, I just liked it
(3) have you played much with enchant?
yeah I've played several games with him now. If you're trying to gauge whether or not I am good at reading him, I have unfortunately come to realize that I am not. I like playing with him tho, Enchant is a vibe
For example, I like the point in the spoiler about Alianna's 239. Signals to me that she's actually putting effort into the game and trying to read people.
Throwback to a simpler time. What else do you need to TR CSF slot?
(I'm only half joking!)
I'm not sure if it applies to CSF, but I do feel like joking around is a towntell for some players. I've noticed this in my own play, where if I am scum I feel less interested in joking around in the thread and have to force myself to do it. I think this is partly because playing scum is generally more effort for me and also because I feel a bit more alienated from the thread vibes. When I'm town I live "in" the public thread in a way and there is no other outlet for my bad sense of humour. So idk I thought the "Woo!" post could actually be a bit town-indicative.
In post 807, implosion wrote:
Regarding Andante, I think my read on her is now in the vicinity of "town, but can still be persuaded otherwise by someone who knows more about her". I don't think her Dunn case is scummy by any means, I just don't understand it at all (except for activity points). It's entirely possible that it's actually a good case that I just cannot physically parse.
I think her trajectory through this game sort of makes sense with how she'd feel as town; I think going to read people and latching onto a Dunn scumread is something she could definitely do as town. I think I tend to read her general sense of being pissed at the game state, like her indignance at the Enchant wagon and at people refusing to join her on Dunn, as townish. I think in that context her being pissed at people for not townreading her and assuming that she is the shining beacon of towniness is consistent with her mindset, it's just such a foreign mindset to me.
implo, responding here because it's where you actually talk about it but I don't think that anything that Andy did is really particularly clearing for the slot?
I mean, my impression of andante is that she is intense and scattered regardless with a tendency to tunnel as town and to fake tunnel as scum, all mixed in with a big ole helping of emotional volatility.
but looking back at her ISO... idk, I'm not seeing it really. I don't have her as locked in scum, but I think she was (1) overly sensitive about the wagon on her, a wagon which was only at 3 and which I now know was 2/3 town and quite possibly 3/3 town. I don't particularly care for the meta arguments, but I think she is overly worried in posts like 454 and 459 for the amount of actual pressure and I don't think the fact she might react like that as town is clearing. the PR claim so early is also, I think, way too preemptive. it's unfortunate because I think if she's town she does a lot of suboptimal stuff that gives her cover as scum basically.
she then super hard OMGUS' on Aisa who I'm currently town on, then pushes now confirmed town invisibility which I think is an awful push, then pushes on me for filler questions, then town reads enchant who even being town I think looked objectively terrible and I don't regret limming him at all (again, <3 u buddy)
uhh I have to go now but there is more I think
tl;dr Andy being indignant and irritated not town indicative
Posts like these are the reason Mena seems towny on reread
This reads super pure to me for a scumread on a slot that is now confirmed town
I know Mena's towniness is not a pressing matter right now but shhh I'll get to the pressing matters soon. Maybe.
Post
Post #2162 (isolation #213) » Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:54 am
Postby Aisa »
idk I feel like {fire, Aureal, sheep} is a great pool to eliminate within but the choice of the actual slot to vote for within this pool is pretty tough
In post 2084, Aisa wrote:
Hmm fire you know my woo reaction test? Why do you find that towny?
it seemed like something that the town bunny in the field running around pushing buttons would do
there's just like an eagerness to solve the game and inquisitiveness behind it (which i think is also recognizable without meta)
it's not like it's something that's impossible for scum to fake it's just that idk if scum would even think of it?
i don't think it's a particularly strong part of my read anymore i admit i was being somewhat lazy before by townbinning mostly off that, i feel better about my reasons now
I'm not sure why it would really be harder for scum to think of this. Thinking of it simply involves seeing that Woo was apparently thinking about the vote count inaccurately. I'd think the difference between scum and town would come after that, with town being more inquisitive and mafia not being sure what happens there because they know Woo is not mafia and maybe it's just not worth it to open that box of worms.
I've been thinking more about her now and trying to put words to the niggling doubts I've had. I think the way I'd describe what I'm feeling about her play is that it's been choppy. She's inquisitive, yes, and more aggressively so than I'd kind of expected, but I didn't actually get to interact with her in the game we 'played' together before, so my expectations could just be off there.
But I'm not really sure that the inquisitiveness is natural. It at times feels like it cuts off abruptly rather than keep delving and having conversations. I've a few times thought that Aisa and I were going to discuss something, but
then the subject just gets dropped
and perhaps picked up at a much later point. Like my apparent failure to locate the quote about implosion she was talking about. This feels potentially like she's holding on to things for a more opportune moment to shift the game. It's even more concerning when I think back to our previous game, where I came in and townbinned her for a post where she complained about not getting an answer to a question for a very long time and thus having practically forgotten why she asked in the first place. It doesn't seem like the same pace which she is inquiring into things here.
Hello! Yeah I'm aware I've been doing that to people a bit, probably not just you, and it must be a bit jarring. It feels like there's a lot to think about this game and sometimes idk my attention just ends up wandering off
Post
Post #2285 (isolation #228) » Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:15 am
Postby Aisa »
This is a game. If you find yourself getting upset I recommend taking a break, and having fun is more important than getting it right
(I'm speaking in very generic terms and making no judgment of who's right / wrong because I'm somewhat hazy on the content of the last two pages so I'm not sure what's led to this)
I will be occupied at the time of the deadline, but the thread should auto-lock at that time. If for some reason it doesn't, please refrain from posting after 00:55 UTC. In particular, votes made after that time will not be counted.
Post
Post #2371 (isolation #240) » Wed Jun 28, 2023 5:52 am
Postby Aisa »
I lean slightly towards claiming today. I wouldn't go into it with an expectation that it will tell us something super interesting (e.g. most likely we don't get any direct contradiction), but there is a small chance that it will, and we likely don't have _that_ many nights left so the damage of outing PRs is not that high.
Post
Post #2391 (isolation #242) » Wed Jun 28, 2023 9:09 am
Postby Aisa »
That massclaim order, is, indeed, palatable to me but I'm interested to see if it is to other people
I'm generally pretty in favour of having enough of a waiting time that anyone can object to massclaim, but given that we've already started it and that enough people seem in favour that we could overrule the opposition, maybe we should just accept we're gonna finish what Ceph started here.
P-edit: oh we're clearly in the midst of the massclaim now lol ok good
fire was CW by a town wagon that was backed by scum who resisted pushing him
fire wouldn't get traction and was defended by scum
fire voted for town > voting for scum yesterday
is it possible that fire is town? yes
is it massively more likely he's scum? yes
is it pretty much the objectively correct play to kill him? also yes
I'm generally wary of wagonomics in a vacuum, but given my reads on the people who were on Aureal vs sheep yesterday I think there might be some truth in this
Post
Post #2393 (isolation #243) » Wed Jun 28, 2023 9:15 am
Postby Aisa »
Claims so far:
fire - VT
Ceph - VT
Dunn - VT
Aura - VT
Ydra
Mena
Aisa
^ (Mena's proposed massclaim order which everyone has been fine with so far) (I had to make up a 4-letter nickname for Aureal to not ruin the pattern)
Post
Post #2394 (isolation #244) » Wed Jun 28, 2023 9:20 am
Postby Aisa »
I too think Aureal looks a bit townier in light of the flip. Two reasons for this:
1. I don't think her behaviour towards sheep looked especially partnered,
2. Just knowing that sheep was mafia kinda snaps me out of the trance of "Aureal might be scum!!1" and, I think, takes power out of the case on Aureal.
It's heartening to see that Ceph's newest posts also have a sense of this
In post 2355, Cephrir wrote:
2. Because aureal's meltdown makes even more sense if her partner is getting run up too
Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.
I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above
In post 954, Aisa wrote:
I think one thing I’m curious about,
@implosion
, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?
this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more
In post 957, Aisa wrote:
Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there
this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions
I find this compelling.
In post 1184, Cephrir wrote:
here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die
{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}
i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow
In post 1745, Aisa wrote:
Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3
Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?
I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}
but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}
and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with
I'll need to mull on Egix.
Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.
If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?
Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.
Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.
For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:
Spoiler:
In post 1544, Aisa wrote:
Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.
I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.
If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.
P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.
Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @
convincing
reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF
Not only are you using one game's worth of meta to townbin aureal, but you also don't even have a scum game to see if she can replicate the things you're looking at. That doesn't seem as strong as implosion is characterizing it below this, which I find strange in its own right
One game of meta seems a lot weaker than trying to read her based on this game and her actual actions here
Then you talk to me again here and I'm not sure if this is the way you would talk to a townread or a scumread
Spoiler:
In post 1836, Cephrir wrote:
Aisa
Mena
Implosion
Dunn
Egix/sheep/fire
Aureal
And the next time you mention me I am at the top of your readslist
Post
Post #2398 (isolation #246) » Wed Jun 28, 2023 9:41 am
Postby Aisa »
In post 2396, Menalque wrote:
Wagonomics in a vacuum is trash but wagonomics contextualised is actually pretty good
Yeah I basically think there is something to the observation "we were already a bit suspicious of this slot, and ?perhaps entirely coincidentally? in the last two days it has 1. driven a town miselimination and 2. been on a counterwagon to scum"
(I've had games like this as town though so not judging!)
I was gonna say something about it being interesting that the last scum did not claim a role which would have denied us the information of there only being 2 mafia. BUT looking at the setup again, the only roles they could have claimed to do that were Cop or Vig, neither of which is obviously a viable fakeclaim at this point lol
Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.
I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above
In post 954, Aisa wrote:
I think one thing I’m curious about,
@implosion
, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?
this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more
In post 957, Aisa wrote:
Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there
this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions
I find this compelling.
In post 1184, Cephrir wrote:
here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die
{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}
i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow
In post 1745, Aisa wrote:
Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3
Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?
I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}
but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}
and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with
I'll need to mull on Egix.
Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.
If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?
Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.
Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.
For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:
Spoiler:
In post 1544, Aisa wrote:
Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.
I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.
If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.
P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.
Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @
convincing
reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF
Not only are you using one game's worth of meta to townbin aureal, but you also don't even have a scum game to see if she can replicate the things you're looking at. That doesn't seem as strong as implosion is characterizing it below this, which I find strange in its own right
One game of meta seems a lot weaker than trying to read her based on this game and her actual actions here
Then you talk to me again here and I'm not sure if this is the way you would talk to a townread or a scumread
Spoiler:
In post 1836, Cephrir wrote:
Aisa
Mena
Implosion
Dunn
Egix/sheep/fire
Aureal
And the next time you mention me I am at the top of your readslist
don't remember, will try to sort it out later i have a meeting rn
Post
Post #2421 (isolation #250) » Wed Jun 28, 2023 11:13 am
Postby Aisa »
In post 2402, fireisredsir wrote:
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
but still
I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow
In post 2420, fireisredsir wrote:
honestly i really wish i had understood the setup better that there could be only 2 scum bc i think a lot of my assumptions early one were kinda faulty if there wasn't necessarily 3 scum (like believing the game was hard and there had to be scum in the people driving the game)
im blaming my bad play on that
Yeah if you're town I can see that being pretty painful
Post
Post #2439 (isolation #251) » Wed Jun 28, 2023 8:46 pm
Postby Aisa »
In post 2430, Cephrir wrote:
i think i had you low because i found some points that someone (sheep?) made kinda convincing and you just continued to townpost after that so i stopped caring
In post 2431, Cephrir wrote:
ya idk there are so many posts from you in this span that have really transparent & believable thought processes i can't imagine how i could cite only one or several
The good thing about this game is that everyone is townreading me so I can’t be pocketed with a townread
In post 2394, Aisa wrote:
I too think Aureal looks a bit townier in light of the flip. Two reasons for this:
1. I don't think her behaviour towards sheep looked especially partnered,
2. Just knowing that sheep was mafia kinda snaps me out of the trance of "Aureal might be scum!!1" and, I think, takes power out of the case on Aureal.
It's heartening to see that Ceph's newest posts also have a sense of this
In post 2355, Cephrir wrote:
2. Because aureal's meltdown makes even more sense if her partner is getting run up too
I still wanna ask why you think / thought this
it feels kind of self explanatory... she'd have no positive way out of the situation, be actively losing the game and feeling helpless about it, and maybe even want to make some bad posts in order to die if she thought sheep had more longevity
I needed to let this simmer for a bit.
Unclear to me who they'd think had more longevity if the team were sheep / Aureal.
Skimming her end-of-day posting from yesterday, I think I'll stick with my opinion that it was >rand a town reaction
Post
Post #2457 (isolation #253) » Thu Jun 29, 2023 6:15 am
Postby Aisa »
Here's a current readslist because why not??
{Mena, Aureal}
{Ydra, Ceph}
{fire, Dunn}
but this will change quite easily.
Mena: I remember thinking his scumread on Andante was quite pure.
Aureal: Maybe towny end-of-day reaction. Also some other posts that would be effort for scum to fake interspersed throughout. I think I remember something about her mindset seeming towny in general, liking some of her explanation / motivation for things even when I disagreed with the thing itself. I hope I remember what I meant here if anyone asks about this.
Ceph: I don't remember why I townread him. All I remember is that every time I am tempted to scumread him he makes a post that makes me think "oh okay, maybe he's not scum then".
Ydra: still think this slot is slightly towny due to CSF's posting, but does seem like a place where I could be wrong.
fire: I think this slot is just too cursed now to ever get out of the PoE. I remember not loving his reactions to things end of last day.
Dunn: This slot has been in my nullbin forever and I should probably fix this.
In post 2402, fireisredsir wrote:
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
but still
I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow
What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.
It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.
Post
Post #2505 (isolation #256) » Fri Jun 30, 2023 10:57 am
Postby Aisa »
The situation today:
{Mena, Ceph}
{Ydra, Aureal}
{fire, Dunn}
This explicitly will have some overlap with my readslist yesterday. The basic new thing is that I took more of a look at Ceph and I feel much better about his slot than I did off the top of my head yesterday
Mena:
medium-strength townread
reasons:
- this post seems pure
- generally the things everyone townreads him for, his fire case especially
doubts:
- the things I TR him for are basically all instances of him acting unusually certain of his reads in a way that seems towny to me. I could be wrong if he's good at faking this as scum.
Ceph:
medium-strength townread
reasons:
- list of posts that to me have towny perspectives: 930, 971, 1013 (specifically the "that's not how I play mafia" combined with the specific observation that he townread Andante), 2240 (see previous posts for context), parts of 2375
- overall vibes. Like of course each of the previous specific posts is fakeable but overall I get the impression he is driven by trying to solve the game.
doubts:
- I'm sorry but my brain does not vibe with the near-dogmatic certainty that Aureal is scum he displays at some points
- Posts like 2241? I disagree with this take though even here I think I kinda buy the "it feels self-explanatory..."
Aureal:
medium-strength townread, but adjusted down because everyone is suspicious of this slot
I don't know where to start explaining this slot, this is a problem for future me
Ydra:
townlean
Spoiler:
In post 2158, Aisa wrote:
My Ydrasse towncase, very briefly, based on CSF and which I was going to do several days ago:
I don't know how accurate this still is, but the last time I played with CSF I got the impression she did not like playing as scum and does not have much WIM as that alignment. I am basically townleaning the slot based on the fact her ISO has several analysis posts that signal to me she was interested in the game and inquisitive. One example is the post below:
I think people tend to townread people who push the game out of RVS and being active in the early game, and that doesn't make them scum. I have some difficulty thinking Dunn genuinely believes that
The "your nullreads are actually scumreads" point felt like splitting hairs
also a thought that crossed my mind earlier was did Dunnstral really see Alianna's readslist, open up activity overview, and cross check it? I feel like this is a kind of read that is more likely to come from someone who had already read the entire game and had a sense of who was active and who was not, but he claimed he didn't do that
he was also one of the people who threw out a fast townread on Woo, and while I realize not all of those people are going to be scum, he's also not towny out of that group
(2) what do you like about Alianna?
I went to quote some posts out of her ISO that I liked for you, but uh, on the whole she feels more reactive than I remembered. Here are some posts I remember liking though-
)
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}
