Micro 1089: the coalition, again [game over]

[hellbooks]

fire saying "i almost had success by only considering what was happening in real time in ELO and not in anything else" when he knows that if i were to do that myself it would come out so in his favor

[fireisredsir]

there are a bunch of things you've posted this day phase that would make me feel bad for voting you. and i don't think that's what town!you actually wants so unless you're coming off way different than you intend i don't think you'd actually be posting those things as town

genuinely very sorry if they had that effect

i really don't like when people do that because i am very effected by those type of posts, so i definitely wouldn't want to do that to anyone else. ill try to do more to avoid things that are in that realm

if you're town i don't think you should feel bad for voting me

[fireisredsir]

pedit: i don't think that is factually true and i talked about this

you talked about how there was one post where she had hellbooks at the top of her list of people she didn't want in and then i talked about how there were a bunch of posts were she was much more willing to consider putting me in and then you didn't really engage with that and kept the same opinion i think

[fireisredsir]

i don't think you'd be demoralized here as town because you said you weren't demoralized. and unless you're confident i'm town you shouldn't be that demoralized as town here

i don't think my levels of demoralization have much to do with this specific game was what i was trying to get at

[hellbooks]

i would like to restate that im coming off a game where i misvoted in ELO and as much as i didnt really show it that ended up sucking a lot. i guess only for the rest of the day though
so its not that much of a mental punishment

im going to fumble it when it comes down to voting fire
sorry im trying to fit a parody of the song "the wire" by haim and failing
ive done my due dilligence as a good little scumhunter by performing consideration on both sides but if asked at any point in this ELO i would have answered that id vote fire for a big majority of it

[hellbooks]

its simply a little hard to admit that because it alludes to the relative futility of all of the discussion had during this day phase for me although i guess its way easier to swallow since im having fun still

[Infinity 324]

Spoiler: skitt pushing for fire to be outside the coal

I think ari and fire are most likely to be scum.

this is convenient because I kind of think you and fire are the scum team so if the three of us are in the fun car together than we can win if either of us are right!

this is my thought too

why?

it's more 227 than 242 alone; 227 feels like scum who are annoyed they're being sr for a wrong/bad/silly reason

that just seems like normal fire behavior to me

idk it rubbed me the wrong way
i'm right now mentally debating if shea/fire makes sense as scum theater
i'm leaning towards no but i sr both so this poses a problem

probably just leave both out of the coalition

like I'm lowkey tempted to let you pick 3 more names to go with you/shea. I'll sheep your choices no matter what and then if the coalition fails I get to murder you both.

i'm not following, isn't it better to just keep them both out ?

well the way I'm seeing it is

maybe I'm right and fire/shea r both scum, in which case putting them in coalition and yeeting them both if coalition fails is a win and putting them outside is also a win

maybe i'm wrong and fire/shea are both town, in which case putting them in coalition might cause an auto win which is nice but maybe some scum get in with them and we misyeet them but thats on them for picking scum to go with them.

I'm p sure there's at least a scum in the pair so i don't think i'd support them both getting in

i am not the one picking the coalition unilaterally why are you framing it as if i am

Tbf i think at this stage it's more of a hypothetical approach than an actual one; i don't think it's actually happening

The point is that u don't seem super comfortable.with it in theory either

I've been thinking about fire/shea as 0/1/2 scum and I don't think I can be confident declaring like there must be one scum between the two of them, it feels like a 0 or 2 situation to me.

I'm not convinced it's a duality?
The pair feels v off to me and i think there (at least one) someone in the pair who isnt town

I'm not sure i see 0-2 as the only options

if its just one which one do you think is more likely?

Right now leaning towards fire

HURT: all
HEAL: tris, sheep, thestatusquo, skitter, fireisredsir

i don't really want this hammered rn but it is my current favorite coalition

im wavering on ari and isis which makes me hesitant bc it's probably not just bulge/hellbooks (that is, it could be, but i don't want to assume it is bc easy answer usually wrong etc) and so im not really convinced that im not misreading someone in tris/sheep/skitter

I don't think i support this coalition rn

what if I promise im town

well it's the cumulative effect of u and fire

sheepsaysmeep [5]: sheepsaysmeep, fireisredsir, tris, skitter30, Thestatusquo
fireisredsir [5]: tris, sheepsaysmeep, Thestatusquo, skitter30, fireisredsir
---
Aristeia [5]: Thestatusquo, fireisredsir, skitter30, tris, Isis
---
The Bulge [5]: The Bulge, tris, Thestatusquo, Isis, sheepsaysmeep
---
Isis [5]: The Bulge, tris, Thestatusquo, Aristeia, fireisredsir
---
tris [5]: sheepsaysmeep, tris, hellbooks, fireisredsir, skitter30
---
Thestatusquo [5]: The Bulge, tris, Thestatusquo, fireisredsir, skitter30
---
skitter30 [3]: skitter30, tris, Aristeia
hellbooks [1]: tris

am i like grossly misreading fire here >.>
i'm kinda wary abt putting fire in but i think he's in litereally every option

bizarrely reviewing these i think i probably like sheep/fire's or tsq's the best

Tris/me/shea

I want ari

I will begrudgingly compromise on the bulge for reasons stated

I would then go:
Sheep
Isis
Fire
Hellbooks

I agree with the top 3.

I don't want ari.

I want fire.

Can you walk me through why you don't?

I still think that the you/ari/fire thing wasnt all town; something feels icky to me there
But I think ari is town (i don't think her play here matches what i'd expect scum-her to do, like at all) and i want her in the coalition
I've come around to you being town
Fire i still don't really like how he positioned himself in the you/ari thing, and i didnt really like his response to ari trying to see if he was willing to act on his stated worldview

tempted to call skitter scummy for not understanding why i didn't like ari's suggestion but also remembering that last game she as town thought i was scum for lacking conviction so maybe she just has a misunderstanding idk

Maybe i have no idea how to read you but this is what i feel rn

I will agree to the following coalition:

Me Tris Skitter Ari and Fire.

And then we can argue about which of ari or fire is scum later.

I think there is certainly scum in {hellbooks isis sheep}

I'm just saying right now if this fails (and i think it will) that i think it's fire

i also think the scumread feels forced which is more likely as a scumpartner than knowing you are town which i originally thought. if you are town there is no reason to force the read really

i think you convinced me that skitt didn't need to do much if scum with hellbooks because hellbooks wasn't really ever going to be in the coal. but i think she was happy with hellbooks in the coal at most point lmk if you want quotes

[fireisredsir]

i guess the difference here is early vs late in the day

i think skitter was honest when she made the post about how ideal scum strategy is to try to both get in and then only once things are coalescing do you try to aim for 1 in 1 out

pushing your partner out from the beginning is a lot riskier

[Infinity 324]

hm yeah i just think that skitt was pretty widely townread from pretty early but that's something i have to reread

[fireisredsir]

early in the day she was scumreading me and pushing me out, and townreading hellbooks

late in the day when things actually started coalescing there were points also where she was considering putting me in and she wasn't really ever entertaining the possibility of putting hellbooks in

[fireisredsir]

hm yeah i just think that skitt was pretty widely townread from pretty early but that's something i have to reread

she wasn't really and part of the reason she started getting townread was because she was content with everyone leaving her out

[fireisredsir]

she did townread me like in rvs but that dropped off before she got townread herself

[fireisredsir]

but i think she was happy with hellbooks in the coal at most point lmk if you want quotes

i am reading and i can't find a point where she wants both herself and hellbooks in the coal so yes i guess i would like quotes if you have that

around the time that she starts getting put in coals is around the time that her read on hellbooks drops and she pushes her out

[Infinity 324]

oh you mean at 787?

[fireisredsir]

yeah

i think that comes at the point where she is just kinda starting to get some townreads

[Infinity 324]

ok i will reread

[fireisredsir]

im gonna track peoples progressions it'll take a minute tho

[Infinity 324]

maybe the plan was to put hellbooks in the coal and then bus her. but hellbooks didn't particularly seem to be going along with that plan

[Infinity 324]

yeah

i think that comes at the point where she is just kinda starting to get some townreads

yeah that is one of her first posts after a bunch of people healed her grrr

[fireisredsir]

it's confirmed in hellbooks/bulge/skitter

while tracking progressions i found this joke post about how scum didn't post on page 82 and its literally correct

[fireisredsir]

isis

- initial position is skitter is hard to read so leave her out
- 214 skitter is probably town for not looking like she has an agenda
- 357 she probably wants skitter in coal
- 570 heals skitter
- from this point on she pretty much just solidly townreads skitter
- 1380 says she'll proxy vote skitter
- 1461 is notable in that it convinced sheep and kinda signifies skitter moving into towncore

sheep

- 629 first mention of skitter is putting her in a coalition
- 658 "skitter is

fine

but thats a low quality read"
- 874 skitter is fine ish, good vibes, doesn't feel like she has a scum agenda
- 936 puts her in coal again as his 5th slot
- 1262 skitter is a little bit towny for not giving sheep an easy townread that he probably doesn't deserve
- 1476 skitter paranoia quashed
- his position on skitter doesn't really change from here on
- agrees with tris/skitter/shea towncore in 2234

ari

- 348 agrees with me and wants skitter in the fun car
- 367 makes a coal without skitter
- 539 still wants skitter out
- 794 says a coalition with skitter in it will win
- 1394 first time voting for a coalition with skitter in it
- i should note that ari doesn't really directly state a read on skitter much at all during this time. she tends to have more rigid worldviews where for a while she thought the team was me/shea, so therefore everyone else is town. but somewhere in there she does seem to transition from wanting skitter out to being fine with her in
- 1797 has a readlist with skitter/hellbooks/bulge at the bottom. ouch. gj ari. but she's trying to work with consensus and that involves putting skitter in
- 1954 paranoid of skitter a bit
- 2180 bulge is outed scum and makes sense as partnered with shea/sheep/fire. maybe skitter but she thinks skitter is town

shea

- 84 rvs read of skitter scum
- 476 votes a coalition with skitter in it
- 519 hurts skitter, doesn't like an interaction they had
- 535 scum team is skitter and ari
- 547 explains why
- 1049 says a coalition without skitter wins
- 1137 argues with skitter a bit but doesn't necessarily seem to have her as lockscum
- 1189 doesn't have a good reason to scumread skitter but disagrees with her worldview
- 1358 considers a coalition that has skitter in it (that ari proposed)
- 1498 still has something stuck in his craw about skitter
- 1687 iffy on skitter but is considering voting a coalition with her in it
- 1861 heals skitter
- from here to end of phase he is pretty much pushing coalitions that have skitter in them

fire

- 110 skitter is neutral
- 347 i tell ari i want skitter in the fun car
- 470 don't actively scumread skitter but considering worlds where she might be content being left out because she's scum with someone who's solidly in
- 554 skitter posting is fine rn
- 920 agree with sheep that skitter feels a little towny due to being agendaless
- 921 and 923 i reference some posts that ping me as town for skitter
- btw for reference most of this time i am holding on to a heal list of shea/tris/hellbooks
- 1344 hey i also agreed with the ari coal that had skitter in it
- 1683 votes for a coalition with skitter in it
- 1827 long rambly thought dump on skitter. still think she feels agendaless but not that confident
- 2159 here i start formalizing the coalition core of shea/tris/skitter. i think around here marks the point where skitter is in basically every coal

hellbooks

- 154 agrees with a post from skitter
- 386 begins firing the laser at skitter
- 1700 philosophical manifesto in response to ari asking her if she likes a coalition that includes skitter. i think the conclusion is "not really and we should put you in it"
- 1802 readlist that has skitter in the lower portion
- 1820 doomed to always be a little bit suspicious of skitter
- 2056 when skitter asks why she's being lasered she says it's like a magnum opus piece. and also later in the post says that she's fine with being in the fun car or with being put in the coal and then limmed

The Bulge/brassherald

- 317 skitter isn't touching his coalition. votes one without her
- 345 says skitter is omgus him when she says she won't put him in hers either
- 2340 brass subs in
- 2358 recognizes the consensus of tris/shea/skitter as the coalition core
- he then only votes for ones with those people in them. not a lot of time to develop a read so not much there

[fireisredsir]

omg i forgot tris hold on sorry tris

[fireisredsir]

tris

- 111 heals skitter as the 4th into her coal

- 381 hurts everyone except isis

- 553 heals skitter again

- 1725 says she townreads skitter
- from here only votes coals with skitter in them and doesn't say much else about here. seems on board with the consensus of skitter core

[fireisredsir]

ok so to kind of condense these into a general timeline i think we have:

posts about 1-500: most people are around neutral on skitter, and general consensus i think seems to be that we should leave her out because she's a strong player who isn't obvtown yet. skitter herself seems on board with this. isis does townread skitter, hellbooks and bulge seem to scumread skitter but without much thread influence

posts about 500-900ish: skitter trajectory tends to improve for most people, except shea who thinks she's scum with ari. but gradually light townreads seem to be developing. isis townread still going strong. reasoning is often in the realm of her not pushing herself into the coalition and not seeming like she's trying to win the game for scum

posts about 900-1300ish: townreads solidify a little more, with multiple people talking about how she feels agendaless. fire and sheep go from more neutral reads to townleans, shea loses his scumread

posts about 1300-1800ish: skitter townreads solidify further, especially with fire/ari/shea/sheep all being on board with a skitter coalition. isis and others are casing skitter as town and she is moving from "slightly weak borderline town" in the consensus into "stronger town"

posts about 1800-2200: coalition starts to coalesce around a tris/shea/skitter towncore. there's not a lot of protest to these names and most people tend to agree with them being in

[fireisredsir]

i will also as a very unhelpful editors note say that both when i was tracking the hellbooks skitter progression and the bulge skitter progression i was like "wow this looks extremely scummy"