Cheese Thief | Game 1 Over

[NDMath]

/in
interested how this plays
small preference against fall mouse

[NDMath]

Does day not end if we have a majority vote on somebody? That seems weird to me.

@DragonEater
I don't think lying about wake up time is as likely as you think it is, since if cheese thief or follower lie about their wake up time & somebody checked their die that just forces them into an unneccesary 1v1. However I do think the strategy is a good idea.

How do you want to decide who starts the popcorn massclaim?

[NDMath]

Does day not end if we have a majority vote on somebody? That seems weird to me.

@DragonEater
I don't think lying about wake up time is as likely as you think it is, since if cheese thief or follower lie about their wake up time & somebody checked their die that just forces them into an unneccesary 1v1.

Let me explain why the Cheese Thief is likely to fake claim:
Let's say theoretically that the cheese thief woke up at 1 AM, one player woke at 2, one player woke at 3, two players woke at 4, and one woke at 5.
They all claim the time truthfully, then there's guaranteed to be a 1v1 between cheese thief and the person who woke at 2.
If TWO people wake at 2 instead (and Cheese Thief truthfully claims being the only one to wake up at 1), then Cheese Thief is caught and it's game over for them immediately.
So the Cheese Thief cannot truthfully claim UNLESS they have a partner who's lying for them, or if they are feeling really lucky.

This is just wrong.


I am also now pretty sure that DragonEater is follower here.

I woke up at 2 AM.
Let's have

camelCasedSnivy

claim next.

[NDMath]

Wait so is one of you two fakeclaiming 6 AM?

Thoughts I had from people's posting before massclaim:

Spoiler:

I think Silverclaw is

Sleepyhead

(Town)
Mallow and Snivy are probably not

Cheese

Thief

but can't rule out

Follower

Math is probably

Cheese

Thief

or woke up at 1 AM - will explain this next post

(you don't actually have to read, I'm just posting this for fun)

I'm still so confused as to what you're doing. You like want to claim you peaked me at 1 but are so hesitant to fully commit
But if there's two pairs & then us two that just makes you cheese thief unless you get your story straight.

[NDMath]

Like there's a world here where it's mallow with ccs follower, but I struggle to see how you're so accusatory towards me if you're town & with claims that just makes you cheese thief.

[NDMath]

Math 2 quick questions:
1. Why did you call me a follower before massclaim?
2. Do you realize there's a follower so I don't have to be a cheese thief, since both of the other pairs according to your POV could be thief + follower?

pedit: I will snivy, dw

and yeah, SG (sorry if you hate this) ain't confirmed

It looked like you were using a peak on me with malicious intent & cheese thief doesn't get a peak. (mechanically you want people you know the times of to claim later, so you acting like you had a peak on me and then asking me to claim first set off alarms there).
Additionally, because I woke up at 2 so I knew cheese thief woke up at 1 so your framing on the situation was frightening in that with #18 it felt like you were preemptively setting up your arguments

Regarding point 2, I thought you were claiming that you peaked me at 1am, since that's sure what it sounded like you were implying, and assumed that meant mallow/ccs were time paired leaving you as both lying & the only player without a time vouch.

This is my "Full Thoughts" post. I will include the entire case I made on Math in the spoiler below, then I can delve into what I currently think.

Spoiler: case I was alluding to in post #38

I think Math is the Cheese Thief.
It's a bit hard to precisely articulate my thought process, because this is a bit based on gut and a bit based on logic of the type that makes better sense in my head than when I say it (even though it ends up reaching the correct conclusion), but I'll try anyway.
So, I saw this post and it felt off to me:

I don't think lying about wake up time is as likely as you think it is, since if cheese thief or follower lie about their wake up time & somebody checked their die that just forces them into an unneccesary 1v1. However I do think the strategy is a good idea.

Why is this off? Well, maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it's not like we're gonna have flips this game so I kinda have to. And looking at this post, I feel this is a TMI/Anti-TMI/Not-Trying-To-Solve Slip. Let me explain what this means.
Basically, in this game, unlike in Mafia, the Sleepyheads all have a piece of information (or actually 2), that would make it pretty obvious to them why the Cheese Thief should fake claim time (as otherwise, it would be extremely easy to spot the Cheese Thief). This information is (a) what time you woke up, and (b) what was the state of the cheese. and with this information, if everyone trueclaims time, it is possible to more or less pinpoint cheese thief.*
But there are two roles in the game which wouldn't realize what this information means, or that it is actually usable information: someone who woke up at 1 AM by themself, and a Cheese Thief (hope it's clear why).
And Math's mindset points to being either, with the claim ruling out waking up at 1 AM by themself (they could only wake up at 1 AM with Mallow, or wake up at 2 AM). So it sounds like he's just a thief.


*Hypothetically, let's say that only the cheese thief woke at 1 AM, and 1 player woke at 2 AM - it immediately becomes a 1v1 after claim, which is not good for cheese thief. So it shouldn't trueclaim normally.
However while writing this I realized that this 1v1 is not a guaranteed win for the Sleepyheads, since as Snivy pointed out the follower could probably break ties.

First, Snivy is very observant as he correctly deduced that he and I woke up at the same time! Just kidding (or am i?). But yeah, I did wake up with somebody else (Mallow, as I don't see a point hiding it now).

Furthermore, I kinda TR Skygazer's thinking that they are confirmed town despite not being confirmed. I will say though that they aren't even confirmed not Cheese Thief, because they can be the Thief with Silverclaw as the Follower. But since I TR both of them (independently of each other), I think it's an unlikely scenario (but not impossible).

So that leaves Mallow, Snivy, and Math.
Mallow is, by claim which no one CC'd yet, clear of being Cheese Thief. They could still be a follower.

Could Snivy be Math's follower? Maybe - I didn't actually think of this possibility. It's an interesting one.
Could Math be Snivy's follower? Probably not. I find it highly unlikely that the follower just popcorns the CT and forces them to fakeclaim early when they might get CC'd.
Could Mallow be Math's follower? Yes, and that's my current solve. Mallow's posting feels like follower posting, and Math's posting feels like CT posting. If I'm right, I expect Mallow to start shading me after this post and to (falsely) claim that Math is confirmed not CT to them.
Okay so what about Snivy as Math's follower again? Ugh, I guess it's possible. I don't really have a good argument for or against it. If you guys have an argument either way, I will be happy to hear it.

Edit: I guess the last 2 posts by Mallow and Snivy actually confused me a bit on which one of them could be the follower.
Oh, I forgot Mallow could be Snivy's follower. Hmmmmmmm, I'll get back to you about that.

What your spoilered explanation is missing is just because cheese thief doesn't lie about their time, doesn't mean we'd know that they didn't lie about their time.
Specifically since if Cheese Thief wakes up with one other person, the cheese thief is very likely to make that person to follower, at which point cheese thief could run off to some random time & leave the follower to take the 1v1, and so seeing that we wouldn't know for sure if cheese thief was left in the 1v1, just that it's more likely than not.

Also, I peaked at Silverclaw and saw the 6 so I know he can't be cheese thief, and it seems unlikely for skygazer to be cheese thief either since he claimed before silverclaw.

From my pov it is likely either mallow/dragoneater (with mallow much more likely to be the cheese thief), or ccs as cheese thief with anyone as follower.
Slim chance of skygazer with silverclaw follower, but that chance seems so slim that I'm willing to dismiss it.

[NDMath]

whatever i woke alone and tracked mallow to 3 am im done

this is news
I think that just makes you thief from my perspective

[NDMath]

whatever i woke alone and tracked mallow to 3 am im done

this is news
I think that just makes you thief from my perspective

how so

cheese disappeared at 1
mallow and silverclaw both have two vouches they weren't there at 1
dragoneater and skygazer both correctly claimed a paired time without partner help

[NDMath]

I admit that I fucked up there, I actually realized I should've asked you to claim last but it was too late.

@Math basically this is my first time playing this and I am more or less figuring out the strategy as I go along. So yeah you are 100% correct that people you know when they woke up should claim later, that's also part of my suspicion of Mallo popcorning me.

I do now think mallow is the likely partner to ccs

[NDMath]

ok de follower mallow thief

VOTE: mallow

cheese was stolen at 1
you saw mallow at not 1
it cannot be mallow thief

[NDMath]

ok de follower mallow thief

VOTE: mallow

cheese was stolen at 1
you saw mallow at not 1
it cannot be mallow thief

who saw it being stolen?

I woke up at 2, cheese was already gone so it was stolen at 1

[NDMath]

nd woke at 2 am

nd what was your follow result btw?

Also, I peaked at Silverclaw and saw the 6 so I know he can't be cheese thief, and it seems unlikely for skygazer to be cheese thief either since they claimed before silverclaw.

I guess this logic doesn't completely hold for skygazer since with the plan we used skygazer is allowed to either tell the truth or lie so it doesn't matter what they say as cheese thief.
But I do think saying the truthful option is much more logical for a sleepyhead there since no point lying when the person they woke up with is the only one left to claim.

[NDMath]

Also I just realized I've been referring to both mallow and Math as "he" without any evidence that this is the correct pronoun for either of them, so sorry about that.

What's your pronouns?

he is correct

Why? I think you are the thief.

well it doesn't matter who thinks who its just that i think you're the follower so you cant pivot over onto me from nd

i guess it doesn't matter if silverclaw is hamering though

I'm confused why you'd reach the conclusion that dragon would be my follower? Other than that DE has been expressing the most confidence against you, I don't think there's anything to suggest me being paired with them over anyone else.


A three or more way split is just bad since then follower will always be able to change their vote in a way that saves the cheese thief?
I am somewhat confused by voting mechanics so maybe I'm misunderstanding something


agree with #144, I'd really like to hear mallow's perspective right now

[NDMath]

I'm disappointed with the way voting has been set up, there is definitely multiple ways to transfer voting to a forum setting without it being broken.
Not comfortable with abusing it for a large tie (doubly so since I feel we win without it!), however, just discussing abusing the voting system rules is essentially abusing them so that point is pretty moot.

I think it's most likely just ccs/mallow but wouldn't object to a split between ccs and skygazer, I would be very surprised if it were DE at this point.

tbh i agree that autowin is no fun but I'm just trying to aggressively clear myself because I hate being scumread as town, especially when i feel that i shouldn't be scumread. like the mechanical odds of me being thief are fairly low so it's annoying to be scumread in spite of that when i feel like i haven't been particularly scummy this game. it's also interesting to see how people respond to the proposal. in a way, the autowin is me throwing a tantrum about being scumread to force a win lol but i probably wouldn't feel great about it

So like, yes there is incentive for town to try to clear themself
but it inherently reads manipulative when done by stating stuff that isn't fully true
(that is moreso in reference to your early game posts than the quoted one.)
And when we only have 4 people who could even possibly be the player we want to eliminate (and actually just 3 from any individual's perspective), all of those 4 (3) will be considered suspect to some degree just because of how few possibilities there are.

[NDMath]

tomorrow i'll think about how the various possibilities have interacted and if they make sense as partners.

tbh I'm gonna need this for your table / logic commentary to mean anything at all to me

How about this:

Mallow and NDMath, please give us sound reasoning as to why neither of you are follower or cheese thief. I would like at least a paragraph (4 sentences).

I feel like I need to see a defense I can tear apart tbh

I don't think I handle DE's early accusation/RT towards me as well if I were cheese thief, I'd also argue that I'm clearly not partnered with DE because of it. Specifically I believe I have town!logic behind all my reactions to it, and that just wouldn't be the case were I cheese thief. In my (obviously biased) opinion, I believe I've been more constructive to figuring out who cheese thief is than either of skygazer or ccs. If you believe mallow is follower, ccs definitely has more incriminating interactions with mallow than I do.

Part of that is abit more of a case against ccs than a defense for myself, although for your pov those are functionally the same thing if we assume DE is sleepyhead. As for follower: I can't be DE's follower, I can't be skygazer's follower, and I have a hunch that I'd be doing alot of stuff differently were I ccs's follower.

[NDMath]

vote to end day

we can get this over with

Do you want to attempt to convince me on DE or do you not care that much?

Sure

what even is your plan?? Like unless you're partnered with DE, I'm confused why you'd think stopping here nets you a win? Specifically since last you stated, you thought skygazer was most likely cheese thief which is currently very far from the consensus. (Unless you changed your mind there?)

[NDMath]

i mean how would i have seen it coming that my strategy would just be obliterated

I imagine that if you're scum it was an "if I don't say it somebody else probably will". Also possible for you (or anybody really) to have been messaging the mod about the problem in a distinct stance from what's being said in thread.
Regardless, don't really want to speculate too much over gamebreaking strategy philosophy.

[NDMath]

the deadline being imminent is making me question everything but I should probably just stop my paranoia.
Really want more from mallow still

[NDMath]

the deadline being imminent is making me question everything but I should probably just stop my paranoia.
Really want more from mallow still

who are you voting

I think I want to flip it onto DE? But it isn't even for anything that DE has done, it's that I can't make mallow's play make any sense to me unless he's exactly scum partnered with DE. Though I'm hesitant as it'd feel really dumb to me to flip it only for it to just be you, what I had been thinking for the vast majority of the round.

[NDMath]

And no worries about game breaking strategies, I made a decision to try and bring voting more in line with how this site does Mafia games, but the tie rule makes it very different. It's my first time running it and now I've learned!

If you want to do public votes you need to both
a) turn majority on and
b) have nobody die if there is a three or more way tie

The biggest problem with the original voting system for this game was that the follower could be forced to vote for the cheese thief & be unable to do anything about it. (and that the game would never end before deadline was reached because it would require somebody agreeing to a loss)


don't think the rand was that bad for me just got unlucky with player's actions (DE picking to RT me, ccs clearing mallow, mallow's activity not bouncing back up).
also the other voting system being in place hurt me in terms of people making reads of what people did on it, but I don't think that changed the outcome of this game at all.

[NDMath]

I literally KNEW Math woke up at 1 AM based on his response to my strategy.

It turned out I should've just truthful claimed but I was very fearful that you woke up at 2am with a peak on me with the way you were phrasing stuff / had the list pointed at 1am
so then the best counterplay I could think of was to claim to have woken up at 2am with you