Open 891: STDBINSBICACOT (Game Over)

[Black]

I'm surprised the AtE is enough to deter you tbh

[shaddowez]

Shaddow do you have a read on Crescent?

I'm having a bit of a tough time making a specific read, largely because of her defense on me. She made a lot of the same arguments I would have (or I think even did, in some cases), which aren't concrete but FMPOV come from a place of me knowing I'm town.

That said, I feel like her argument against pisskop in 464 could be said about a few people in the game, so I'm not sure why the single out on pisskop. I don't read anything else particularly scummy in her ISO though, but I can definitely see the theory of a Crescent/Alisae association. Not willing to vote there right now.

[Dunnstral]

Shaddow Roden Dunn? Dunn might be beard though. We don't really get along sometimes.

VOTE: Shaddowez

I don't like how much defense Roden has ftr.

Well sorry, I don't have strong reasons to scumread you really

UNVOTE: Titus

[Dunnstral]

Well now that Crescent has claimed I think it makes even more since to fade her today

Only if we think they are mafia.

[Dunnstral]

I'm back, not fully caught up yet but going to start here.

First off if anyone is expecting a ton of content from me, don't. It's not how I play - I'm mostly reactive, observe based on interactions, poke where I feel I need to, and then express my conclusions when and where I feel like they make sense to do so, which is usually with my vote.

I'm not going to spend my time responding to all of 506, but I will address a few of the glaring holes. Feel free to ask questions about any specific things I don't address:

Here are the thoughts I had last night when looking through Shadow's iso

27 could be a signal to the scum team if he's the traitor and they didn't choose to recruit him

This was directly answering 22.

436 I talked about last night but I think his posturing around Alisae is slimy and then the Titus stance feels very convenient considering she got two votes right before this post

This is setting me up for a lose/lose. If I didn't say anything but TItus ended up limmed and is town, I'd be framed for sticking on a wagon with my RVS vote and no reason.

449 is a misinterpretation of what Gob said but it reads as being self-conscious about being voted for

Based on the misinterpretation of Gob's post I would have asked it if he was still voting anybody else, it just happened to be me. Stating a SR on someone but sitting on somebody else they haven't addressed in a while is something I'll point out pretty much anytime I see it.

This doesn't make me feel either way about you, but it does show that there are some incorrect assumptions in the case presented against you

[Black]

Well now that Crescent has claimed I think it makes even more since to fade her today

Only if we think they are mafia.

At least 3 of us do

I don't think we should run anyone else up to a claim so I'll probably be parking my vote on Crescent

[Dunnstral]

Ah my bad then, didn't realize it was 3 to elim

[Black]

This doesn't make me feel either way about you, but it does show that there are some incorrect assumptions in the case presented against you

What do you make of those incorrect assumptions?

[Black]

Ah my bad then, didn't realize it was 3 to elim

What even is the point of posting this? How about you share your thoughts on Crescent since it doesn't look like you've mentioned them at all this game

[Black]

Like at this point it just seems like you are naysaying any and every wagon that pops up. You are just obstructing

[Dunnstral]

This doesn't make me feel either way about you, but it does show that there are some incorrect assumptions in the case presented against you

What do you make of those incorrect assumptions?

It could come from either alignment.

[Dunnstral]

Like at this point it just seems like you are naysaying any and every wagon that pops up. You are just obstructing

I was voting for Titus.

[Black]

How about you share your thoughts on Crescent since it doesn't look like you've mentioned them at all this game

[Black]

She made a lot of the same arguments I would have (or I think even did, in some cases), which aren't concrete but FMPOV come from a place of me knowing I'm town.

Yeah I think this is largely why I was townreading her at first. I'm usually able to tap into my town thought process when I'm scum so that isn't enough for me to retain the read, personally. I understand your stance though

[Dunnstral]

How about you share your thoughts on Crescent since it doesn't look like you've mentioned them at all this game

I don't think Crescent is mafia.

[Black]

I don't think Crescent is mafia.

Why not

[Dunnstral]

They made arguments about what they think mafia would do but then later clarified that some of their thoughts are based on playing a different type of mafia. Seems believable to me. Aside from that I just like their posts.

[Dannflor]

hi i am reading but it would be helpful too if someone summed up the current cases against crescent and shadowez

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Roden

I've changed my mind and think they are less towny looking than a few other slots to me. Not a very strong read but could see them as mafia here.

[Alisae]

For the love of can we put votes back on shadow plz and stay focused holy

[Something_Smart]

Shadow doesn't have to respond to the pressure right away in order for us to get something out of it

This is true, in my head we could have already seen a pressure response and potentially moved on to something else or at least built up an informed CW, but the amount of people getting prodded (and me making that post when I did because I was 1 hour off of a prod) makes me think it's probably mostly RL business. (Although I may be projecting but I'm the type to check the thread a lot and if nobody's posting then I generally won't either, so if nobody wanted to post it could be because town was waiting for a reaction and scum was trying not to shake things up hoping the wagon would go through, although that's a bit of a long shot theory.)

When shaddow did respond in 616 I do like the analysis, well more specifically I like the direction he chose to go because the analysis itself is fairly simple and easily faked. But the fact that he jumped immediately to analyzing the people on his wagon, their votes/positioning and what that might mean, is not the first angle I would expect scum to go for when trying to talk themself out of a lim.

That said I do get the impression that shaddow is a pretty analytical player so maybe that was just his best instinct as either alignment, plus I very heavily implied that I wanted to see some analysis like that so maybe he chose that line of thought as scum specifically to tie in to what I was asking for.

[Black]

For the love of can we put votes back on shadow plz and stay focused holy

Nah I like shadow's responses enough. Feel free to help me fade Crescent though

[Something_Smart]

Pisskop is completely avoiding any comment on the Shadowez wagon, and sitting on a splinter he's not trying to push. This says to me Pisskop wants the wagon to go through, but he doesn't want to be associated with it. Based on Pisskop's behavior, I'd wager Shadow is probably town here. Scum loves to hide by themselves on splinter votes early in the game.

This is putting the cart before the horse. This is absolutely something that some people will do as scum, in order to make it look like they are doing something while not directly tying themself to the mislim wagon they expect to go through. But it's also just something townies will do when they have a pet scumread and you have only posited one possible explanation for pisskop's behavior, not tried to show why it's more likely than other possible explanations.

[Ausuka]

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[Ausuka]

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