Toriel's Patience (end)

[Taly]

It's understood that I'm the big proponent in pushing

Freedom

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I assume this is in response to "leading vote on the leading wagon" which specifically refers to the vote order in the VC as I'm not caught up

[Taly]

You intend to read all these pages?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

221 is a pretty good point (on Keyleth being town) and probably +town a bit for Sakura. To elaborate a bit since it came into question why I think it's +town for Keyleth, the post is just very frank about what it's trying to do. I think scum on average will tend to shy away from a post that's like "hey, we already have me + x as town, who are the other two" particularly in the context of Keyleth having some heat on her. It's not a slam dunk or anything, but I think it's very easy to glance at that post and briefly *think* it's a slam dunk before you've thought it through intensely, hence Sakura is slightly townish for it

(but only slightly and this paragraph is already way too long)

Probably confbiasing on scum!Sakura on my part - I think I recall playing with implosion a long time ago and having difficulty reading him as either alignment - but this looks like self-conscious scum making sure to associate in some way with their partner

pedit: yes I'm planning on reading - I have like 11 days or something before deadline

[Sakura Hana]

I've had problems with all of Sakura's posting so far except for one post that was a pagetop a couple of pages ago

Uhh... thanks for your detailed explanation i guess.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

EV time.

There is one very interesting wrinkle in EV analysis of this setup, which is that if we choose a strategy on day 1 and plan to stick with it, then Dunn has flat odds of 11/14 of being town. So in the point of the calculation where we consider Dunn's probability, it's ambiguous whether we should stick 11/14 or whatever the current random odds are. I think the current odds at that point are technically the right thing to put in. It's similar to the Monty Hall problem, but the difference is that in Monty Hall you don't get any new info by opening the door but here every townie we lim does make Dunn more likely to be scum and every scum we lim does make Dunn more likely to be town. Anyhow. Gonna be rounding to nearest % at every step for convenience.

Suppose we mislim twice. Then if we choose Fight, 3/12 that we go to 2:9 mountainous (35% town win) and 9/12 that we go to 3:8 mountainous (17% town win) for about a 21% EV.

If we choose Mercy, well, there's not a wiki page already in existence to make this easy. Assuming that spares are chosen entirely at random still, as with regular EV calculation. 3/12 that Dunn is scum and we go to 2:9 sparegame. To win from there, we have to spare correctly at 11p, 9p, 7p and 5p, for total probability of (9/11) (7/9) (5/7) (3/5) = 3/11 or about 27%. In the 9/12 that Dunn is town, we go into 3:8 where we have to spare 3 times to win and scum have to spare twice. From there, 3/11 that we hit scum at which point our EV is (7/9) * (5/7) * (3/5) = 3/9. 8/11 that we go to 3:6. From there, 3/9 that our EV becomes (5/7)(3/5) = 3/7, and 6/9 that we go to 3:4 at which point scum's EV is (3/7)(2/5) = 6/35 so ours is 29/35.

All in all, the EV is this:

(3 / 12) * (3 / 11)
+
(9 / 12) * (

(3 / 11) * (3 / 9)
+
(8 / 11) * (

(3 / 9) * (3 / 7)
+
(6 / 9) * (29 / 35)

)


)

Which, if I've typed it into Google correctly, is just above 50%.

So that's definitely a very strong argument in favor of sparing Dunn. Almost regardless of his alignment - in fact, if he's scum, correctly choosing Fight instead of Mercy improves our EV from 27% to 35%, but if he's town then correctly choosing Mercy instead of Fight improves our EV from 17% to a whopping almost 60%. At those odds, we would need *incredibly* persuasive evidence that Dunn is scum to want to pick Fight over Mercy.

There are caveats. The first is that this is assuming we mislim twice (if we hit scum then we can redo this under those assumptions; i highly suspect that we'll get similar results). The second and much more important is the degree to which EVs are reliable. EVs are questionable even for regular mountainous games, but in the sparing game they're perhaps even more questionable due to the view that we'll be hemorrhaging all our best/towniest players both by sparings and by nightkills, and that we will ultimately *have* to win the game in a 2:3 or 3:4 ElO where in principle all 3 or all 4 town will have to unanimously be correct.

bookmarking this for my ISO

[RCEnigma]

You intend to read all these pages?

I gave up this dream ngl.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I know this sounds counterintuitive and this applies to most of the playerlist, but I find it suspicious that there is a lack of scumreads, much less ones that arent consensus.

Probably setup related. Naturally we're all thinking spare is the easiest path which means townhunting is more of a focus to the groupthink than usual, so town is less focused on it and scum is not obligated to posit any SRs as long as the group continues the trajectory at this point in the thread. I do think Mandate made a good point about spare though (I think they pointed this out first - I attribute it to them in my head at least), which is that it may seem appealing but there is a possibility it could actually be worse because scum can kill consensus TRs at night to make it more difficult. Scum can't "kill themselves" to make it harder to find scum in the kill scum route.

Also I think at this point maybe everyone has not posted yet, or at least has not posted very much yet

[Dunnstral]

Well, Dunn is the first spare if we pick mercy right? Then you probably eat the nk and I brute force Ali to get spared and then???? Panic?

What does this mean?

[Dunnstral]

Anyways. ssbm_Kyouko is lock town since beeboy always replaces out when they are town.

[Ydrasse]

he flakes as scum i think too

[Dunnstral]

He does not.

[Ydrasse]

viewtopic.php?t=85648

[Ydrasse]

i think he may have in epilogue (?) as well

[Dunnstral]

Alright I didn't see that game, that's fair. But look at the rest of Beeboy's game history:

Gnosia -

Town

- Replaces out
TFT uPick -

Mafia

- Eliminated day 1
Cards of Destiny (Hayasaka account) -

Town

- Replaces out
Epilogue -

Mafia

- Dance game and partner leaves at end of game
Betrayal Mafia -

Town

- Replaces out
Undertale C Open -

Mafia

- Makes it to the end of the game and wins

[Taly]

bingle

broke my brain so im going to nod and say that checks out

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Page 35's Mandate had me feeling a little yikes about my TR - gave me strong scum!Guillotina vibes actually. I did not like the avoidance of Aristea's questioning of Dannflor. I think Aristea poses those questions as either alignment but I definitely ask that kind of question as scum. It's a very easy straightforward angle to challenge and appears towny but ultimately I think scum ALWAYS takes that angle and that town SOMETIMES takes that angle.

Merlyn's reactive vote on page 35 I think can come from scum there but only really makes sense to me if scum!Merlyn is not content with the gamestate. I'm leaning that the vote is more town-motivated but want to mention it in my own ISO in case it's needed later.

Regarding Dannflor: the claim was made that scum!he just lazily townread me for having a strong presence. I don't think anyone has pushed us as SvS so I don't need to defend that accusation. What I have to say regarding that is that he -didn't- townread me. Explicitly. He townread someone else that I also townread but didn't give a townread to me. I had to prompt it and he still wouldn't give me an explicit townread, just a lean. In contrast to what other people say about him giving me an easy townread I think it's kind of obvious that he was never fully comfortable in that townread and I also think it's kind of obvious that it has to do with him alt guessing me as a strong scum player. And I felt all this as it was going on and it felt far outside the bounds of something that Dannflor as scum would think to fake. He was also just very, idk, in the flow on the first page of the game and didn't feel forced or offbeat at all and I'm very much struggling with anyone characterizing his play as wanton scum!Aggression because there's the interesting vote hop taly->Keyleth that I really liked plus the fact that he didn't really, like, push anyone that hard? I also struggle with the characterization of him as meme voting because I think he was continually providing game relevant content while he was here so the push on him just entirely doesn't grok with the ISO of his that I've read.

I do like that Mandate reveals all that they do in this post and does answer the question in the quoted snippet. Overall my TR on them remains untarnished after this post though.

This post feels unfinished but I g2g

[Ydrasse]

Alright I didn't see that game, that's fair. But look at the rest of Beeboy's game history:

Gnosia -

Town

- Replaces out
TFT uPick -

Mafia

- Eliminated day 1
Cards of Destiny (Hayasaka account) -

Town

- Replaces out
Epilogue -

Mafia

- Dance game and partner leaves at end of game
Betrayal Mafia -

Town

- Replaces out
Undertale C Open -

Mafia

- Makes it to the end of the game and wins

alright, i think i’m just being nitpicky about this kind of clearing and am more interested in the like. actual content of his game making the slot town
(even though i don’t really feel like the slot is wolf so teehee)

[Taly]

it is

bingle's

legal responsibility to unbreak my brain on behalf of the toucan council

[Dunnstral]

Alright I didn't see that game, that's fair. But look at the rest of Beeboy's game history:

Gnosia -

Town

- Replaces out
TFT uPick -

Mafia

- Eliminated day 1
Cards of Destiny (Hayasaka account) -

Town

- Replaces out
Epilogue -

Mafia

- Dance game and partner leaves at end of game
Betrayal Mafia -

Town

- Replaces out
Undertale C Open -

Mafia

- Makes it to the end of the game and wins

alright, i think i’m just being nitpicky about this kind of clearing and am more interested in the like. actual content of his game making the slot town
(even though i don’t really feel like the slot is wolf so teehee)

Looks like beeboy is less invested as town which in hindsight lines up with their play we have seen in this game.

[Dunnstral]

Hmm, shirou probably town for how they engaged Taly around the meuh wagon and wanting more credit for the flip. Preflip that is.

This seems nuanced

[RCEnigma]

Well, Dunn is the first spare if we pick mercy right? Then you probably eat the nk and I brute force Ali to get spared and then???? Panic?

What does this mean?

We go mercy -> Toriel gets spared -> Taly probably gets nked -> Ali spared-> then it’s a tight game.

[Dunnstral]

There is no night kill between Toriel being spared and the next spare.

Nights 1-3 are skipped. Toriel is the day 3 Spare, and then the following night is the last skipped night.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Page 35's Mandate had me feeling a little yikes about my TR - gave me strong scum!Guillotina vibes actually. I did not like the avoidance of Aristea's questioning of Dannflor. I think Aristea poses those questions as either alignment but I definitely ask that kind of question as scum. It's a very easy straightforward angle to challenge and appears towny but ultimately I think scum ALWAYS takes that angle and that town SOMETIMES takes that angle.

Merlyn's reactive vote on page 35 I think can come from scum there but only really makes sense to me if scum!Merlyn is not content with the gamestate. I'm leaning that the vote is more town-motivated but want to mention it in my own ISO in case it's needed later.

Regarding Dannflor: the claim was made that scum!he just lazily townread me for having a strong presence. I don't think anyone has pushed us as SvS so I don't need to defend that accusation. What I have to say regarding that is that he -didn't- townread me. Explicitly. He townread someone else that I also townread but didn't give a townread to me. I had to prompt it and he still wouldn't give me an explicit townread, just a lean. In contrast to what other people say about him giving me an easy townread I think it's kind of obvious that he was never fully comfortable in that townread and I also think it's kind of obvious that it has to do with him alt guessing me as a strong scum player. And I felt all this as it was going on and it felt far outside the bounds of something that Dannflor as scum would think to fake. He was also just very, idk, in the flow on the first page of the game and didn't feel forced or offbeat at all and I'm very much struggling with anyone characterizing his play as wanton scum!Aggression because there's the interesting vote hop taly->Keyleth that I really liked plus the fact that he didn't really, like, push anyone that hard? I also struggle with the characterization of him as meme voting because I think he was continually providing game relevant content while he was here so the push on him just entirely doesn't grok with the ISO of his that I've read.

I do like that Mandate reveals all that they do in this post and does answer the question in the quoted snippet. Overall my TR on them remains untarnished after this post though.

This post feels unfinished but I g2g

To continue on this, since the ending is vague ("reveals all that they do")- I mean that prior to this, Mandate has talked about their "secret" philosophy regarding how best to play this setup and I think that the explanation provided in 875 makes sense for town!Mandate.

I got the spidey-sense sort of tingle of scum!Guillotina when reading Mandate on page 35 and that is not going to leave the back of my mind now as I read on, because at some point I caught Guillotina early on in a game and G (forgot Guillotina's pronouns) managed to mislim me that day by my recollection and I was pretty peeved about that. G felt obviously scum to me in that game but G managed to convince the playerlist it was just G's own style of posting and it was not AI. I don't think that outside of what I read on page 35 that Mandate reminds me of Guillotina and I find it unlikely G is their main but I still had that feeling for a moment.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hm, they say "stale discussion" in post 839, and I think they were parroting what you were saying earlier, but I never thought the discussion was stale.

Sure I don't like their last ~4 posts or vote on Meuh.

VOTE: beeboy

Where did Mandate mention a stale discussion before 839? I like parroting as a scumtell when it is paired with a metadive to confirm that the player does not use a certain phrasing normally, but I don't think it actually happened here (also bee/I are town so I know in this case it's incorrect regardless of whether it happened or what beeboy's meta shows)