Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[DragonEater70]

1.07

Votecount 1.07

Gamma Emerald (2): Cobblerfone, Elements
Elements (1): Puffalicious
ssbm_Kyouko (1): Mizuki

Not Voting (5): shaddowez, Celebloki, ssbm_Kyouko, Gamma Emerald, Thomith

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-11-26 23:23:15).

Mod Note: Edited by Alianna.

[Thomith]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

May I ask why?

[Mizuki]

I think 206 and 208 give off a sort of authoritative tone that I'm not sure Town takes there. When I look at Elements vote on Gamma, I can think of a dozen different reasons that I, personally, could've made that post if I were scum there, from testing the waters on a potential Gamma wagon to simply formulating a fake, lazy meta read for towncred with no actual intent of having it go anywhere.

Kyouko asserts, however, that there's only a handful of possible universes in which a Maf!Elements makes that vote and read.

Basically, it's sort of what I accused Cobb of being, that of just trying to sound analytical, because if you really dig into the point Kyouko's making here there's so many different possible factors for why that vote could've happened, that boiling it down to just a 2-4 possible scenarios borders on kind of absurd unless Kyouko is intrinsically familiar with the working of Elements's mind, something I doubt.

Does that explanation make sense? It sounds okay to me in my head but typing it out was surprisingly an ordeal so I'm not sure I'm expressing it properly.

[Mizuki]

Now, on the other hand, I do think that 205 is probably a town post from Elements, since I think the kind of scrutiny that Elements shows there is very much a townie reaction.

[Elements]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

I can join you here
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I've been pondering with the idea 202 is also tmi on both me and Gamma being town

[Elements]

@Elements, do you agree with the assessment that you've been vote hopping?

I always vote hop day 1
It's probably the most nai thing I can do

[Thomith]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

I can join you here
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko
I've been pondering with the idea 202 is also tmi on both me and Gamma being town

What do you mean TMI on you and Gamma being town?

[Thomith]

As in, I actually don't understand what that means, rather than your reason for saying that

[Elements]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

I can join you here
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko
I've been pondering with the idea 202 is also tmi on both me and Gamma being town

What do you mean TMI on you and Gamma being town?

The post implies that ssmb knows that Gamma and I are town, which they only can as scum

[Elements]

Hopefully that makes sense

[Thomith]

Gotcha, yeah that makes sense.
I'm not sure that I see where in that post Kyouka having more information than she should though?

[Elements]

It's less in what's said than the way it's said

[Elements]

I'm not very good at explaining things


203 is much easier to make of you already know I'm town
If you're trying to figure out my alignment I feel like there are a lot more hoops you have to jump through to get a town read on me from the post it was in reference to

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I see, I'm not skilled enough to recognize lazy town for what it is.

I still don't agree there is any reason for scum!elements to be testing the waters on a Gamma wagon or trying to get towncred in this gamestate. Celebloki and shaddowes are still missing and Elements isn't under any pressure imo. Maybe she feels pressured by the comments on her entrance but I don't put stock in that as fake newness because she was posting on an alt, so I didn't consider that when evaluating the original read on Gamma. I would say it's much less likely to be due to that than it is to be due to town looking for something to bite in this gamestate.

[Gamma Emerald]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

I dunno if I agree, I think kyouko has responded poorly to pressure in the past, but that could have changed

[Gamma Emerald]

I think 206 and 208 give off a sort of authoritative tone that I'm not sure Town takes there. When I look at Elements vote on Gamma, I can think of a dozen different reasons that I, personally, could've made that post if I were scum there, from testing the waters on a potential Gamma wagon to simply formulating a fake, lazy meta read for towncred with no actual intent of having it go anywhere.

Kyouko asserts, however, that there's only a handful of possible universes in which a Maf!Elements makes that vote and read.

Basically, it's sort of what I accused Cobb of being, that of just trying to sound analytical, because if you really dig into the point Kyouko's making here there's so many different possible factors for why that vote could've happened, that boiling it down to just a 2-4 possible scenarios borders on kind of absurd unless Kyouko is intrinsically familiar with the working of Elements's mind, something I doubt.

Does that explanation make sense? It sounds okay to me in my head but typing it out was surprisingly an ordeal so I'm not sure I'm expressing it properly.

I think your take makes some sense, I don’t think the way you expressed it sticks with me but I see what the angle could be if Kyouko is scum

[Gamma Emerald]

Now, on the other hand, I do think that 205 is probably a town post from Elements, since I think the kind of scrutiny that Elements shows there is very much a townie reaction.

I think this is a good point btw
205 feels like there’s a laser-focus of thought process that is town-indicative

[gob]

not sure what to do here tbh

[Thomith]

Honestly, the reason why I'm a little confused is because the votes happened, but the reasoning for them had to be drawn out of Mizuki and Elements, rather than mentioned when the votes originally happened.
I could be reading too much into this though.

[Puffalicious]

In general when I look at a player's post with town reads on players I don't have a town read on, I am not able to tell if it's tmi or not. I have a different method on reading through a player who looks like they had tmi which happens in later day phases.

- A

[Mizuki]

I see, I'm not skilled enough to recognize lazy town for what it is.

I still don't agree there is any reason for scum!elements to be testing the waters on a Gamma wagon or trying to get towncred in this gamestate. Celebloki and shaddowes are still missing and Elements isn't under any pressure imo. Maybe she feels pressured by the comments on her entrance but I don't put stock in that as fake newness because she was posting on an alt, so I didn't consider that when evaluating the original read on Gamma. I would say it's much less likely to be due to that than it is to be due to town looking for something to bite in this gamestate.

The point has nothing to do with skill and everything to do with the fact that your confidence in your ability to read the gamestate (and the motivations behind Elements action) feels entirely unwarranted for only being 10 pages in the game, unless you're informed. The scenario's I presented in the previous post were just examples. The points you presented (and are still presenting) essentially amount to trying to read Elements mind, and you said them with such authority that it feels like you're trying to pass them off as though you actually can.

Honestly, the reason why I'm a little confused is because the votes happened, but the reasoning for them had to be drawn out of Mizuki and Elements, rather than mentioned when the votes originally happened.
I could be reading too much into this though.

For me, I had to go play MTG with friends very quickly afterwards so I dropped my vote and then dipped. When I got back I had a notification on my phone and so responded to you.

[Thomith]

not sure what to do here tbh

Right now I'm kind of in the same boat, I have some ideas of how I feel about most players, but also feel like I'm missing something that makes me confident to vote someone for sure.

Celebloki and shaddowez should hopefully post soon, which at least will help me feel like I have some sort of a read on every slot

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I see, I'm not skilled enough to recognize lazy town for what it is.

I still don't agree there is any reason for scum!elements to be testing the waters on a Gamma wagon or trying to get towncred in this gamestate. Celebloki and shaddowes are still missing and Elements isn't under any pressure imo. Maybe she feels pressured by the comments on her entrance but I don't put stock in that as fake newness because she was posting on an alt, so I didn't consider that when evaluating the original read on Gamma. I would say it's much less likely to be due to that than it is to be due to town looking for something to bite in this gamestate.

The point has nothing to do with skill and everything to do with the fact that your confidence in your ability to read the gamestate (and the motivations behind Elements action) feels entirely unwarranted for only being 10 pages in the game, unless you're informed. The scenario's I presented in the previous post were just examples. The points you presented (and are still presenting) essentially amount to trying to read Elements mind, and you said them with such authority that it feels like you're trying to pass them off as though you actually can.

It doesn't take a genius to know that at the time of that post (and still now) the mood is that we're waiting for the less active slots Celebloki and Shaddowes to get more active because nothing so far is sticking now that the situation with Puff had shaken out. Sure there was talk about Cobblerfone and he was one of the less active posters earlier on but nothing was really happening with that wagon I think because the people not voting him were and still are more interested in what shaddowes and Celebloki will have to say on their return. This is what I mean by gamestate - we're all waiting. I am confident that is what is going on and I think most people would agree it is easy to see that is what is happening. I've been keeping up with the thread since the game started so I think the fact the game is 10 pages long is not really relevant. What is happening now has nothing to do with how long the game is.

As for the motivations behind Elements' metadive, I didn't really care at first what they were because I wanted to verify it myself. So I clicked the link to that game and checked Gamma's ISO. I saw it was a replace-in and imo that's not comparable to the start of a game. If Gamma had replaced into this game, sure, go ahead and compare it to 891. But find some more examples of replace-ins and look at them because 2 is not a pattern. There's no better word for it, so I'll say it would be "stupid" of scum to make such a half-assed attempt at starting a push on Gamma in that gamestate (see above). I don't know Elements, but she doesn't strike me as stupid. Therefore, she must been lazy in that moment, because bottom line, that post was either stupid or lazy (with peace and love). Moving on - at this point I have established the post was lazy. I am left to decide if it was made by lazy town or by lazy scum. I ask myself, what would lazy scum be doing right now? The answer is that they would most likely be drifting in this gamestate. There's no pressure on Elements. There's no other reasonable conclusion if you accept the post was lazy and the game is waiting for Celebloki and shaddowes. That leaves lazy town unless we're in a very specific scenario where the only traction in an otherwise stalled game is a wagon on Cobblerfone which means, as I said before, unless the scumteam is specifically Elements and Cobblerfone, the post was made by lazytown!Elements. I'm inclined to accept this without further investigation because I'm of the opinion at least one scum is amongst {shaddowes, Celebloki} mostly due to the current state of the game, which means if I'm right about that the scumteam can't be Elements and Cobblerfone.

I asked you for specific scenarios where Elements would make that post as scum because I conceived only that she would do that if she were stupid or lazy. I don't see the value in making that post from a scum!Elements POV which is why I wanted those examples from you. I don't think any of the examples you provided are especially likely and that is why I remain of the opinion that Elements is town and was being lazy when she meta-dived Gamma.

I am not reading anyone's mind but I am putting myself in scum!Elements' POV to try to make sense of the post and when it doesn't make sense that really only leaves the town!Elements POV. Put yourself there and it makes sense in a stalled gamestate that a town player would like something to "chew on" as I've said before.

And I'm still confident in these reads - why shouldn't I be?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

I dunno if I agree, I think kyouko has responded poorly to pressure in the past, but that could have changed

Poorly is a nice way to put it

[Mizuki]

Alright cool.

VOTE: Celebloki

Got all I wanted out of that vote.