Toriel's Patience (end)

[Taly]

I'm not sure if it would be just impact changes

[Alisae]

i think that slot is town

[Taly]

Well my POV doesn't matter much if I'm following

Dunn

out the door

[Ydrasse]

because it gives better leverage imo to be able to be outraged about the spare and push people who voted it than it is to be imo reasonable about why you want fight beforehand. without an explicit stance it’s a lot easier to make one up that’s convenient and i don’t think kyouko really had to make it to be scrutinized now

[Taly]

Ok I concede to that

Ali

what happens to your reads if

Dunn

flips town?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ssbm what you're positing is that I could be mafia and mafia have infiltrated the "town core" elsewhere? In that case I have no reason to be hammering people, really.

I feel like I just sped things along, really. I saved us waiting for several days before people hammered meuh and then freedom.

I think from an outside POV you can't disagree scum!Toriel is the ideal hammerer especially if he can make it to d3 with consensus leaning toward mercy. Toriel is dead anyways so he can take the place of hammerer and allay suspicion from the others.

[Alisae]

Ok I concede to that

Ali

what happens to your reads if

Dunn

flips town?

well I probably don't like mandate very much

[Alisae]

mandate from my pov would have pushed exclusively town

[Taly]

So

kittybells

was either town with awful reads or scum trying to kill town

But what about a

Ydra

-specific perspective?

[Alisae]

well considering that guy usually doesn't have awful reads as town I think they're mafia

[Alisae]

if ydra is town i'm probably flipping shirou

[Taly]

Maybe the game opens up if you're spared after me

[RCEnigma]

I have a tinfoil that kyouko is scum with a deep wolf and is counting on us sparing a deep wolf and then panicking into “oh shit spare was the wrong choice!”

Maybe Dunn?

I just don’t know how anyone can legitimately look at implos numbers post and say: yup, let’s fight. Especially with the argument that scumhunting is easier than townhunting here.

Well numbers are numbers and we are people that have missed on 2 lims so. There’s that.

[Alisae]

if ydra is town I have a feeling dunn might just flip mafia as well

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And yes that's what I mean, only takes scum!Dunn plus one spare scum to win, even if they are not infiltrated, it could happen after a couple of day when 4 consensus town are off the table from NK and spares

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I have a tinfoil that kyouko is scum with a deep wolf and is counting on us sparing a deep wolf and then panicking into “oh shit spare was the wrong choice!”

Maybe Dunn?

I just don’t know how anyone can legitimately look at implos numbers post and say: yup, let’s fight. Especially with the argument that scumhunting is easier than townhunting here.

I haven't looked back at his numbers since the second townflip and I dont recall if his numbers took flips into account

[Taly]

so i took an emotional intelligence assessment

turns out i have very high psychhological safety and strong overall emotional intelligence skills

except for stress tolerance, emotional stability, and impulse control

lots of things make sense

[Alisae]

a what

[ssbm_Kyouko]

UNVOTE: hurt

Not sure how I'm supposed to unvote a hurt/heal tag but @isis I want to unvote

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Have not confirmed implosions numbers on the spare town!dunn route yet as I'm on mobile and cant do that in my head but the post does take into account b2b mislims so fight is only around 21%EV

[Dannflor]

honestly even if the EV were equal for spare and fight i think spare is just better in practice

it's a lot easier for scum to be the least scummy than it is for them to be the most towny, yknow?

like there are plenty of normal games where scum never infiltrates "the town block" but they still win because they just manage to dodge lims and redirect lims onto the next scummiest slot a few times in a row and then boom you're in F3 and anything can happen. Fight just gives scum more chances to win whether they are in "the town block" or not, because suddenly scum in positions that were never gonna get spared have agency to actually affect the game.

i think dunnstral is town but even if dunnstral is scum, or even if god forbid taly is scum, the red flip of a widely town read scum is going to be a fucking gold mine for associations.

we lose if it's exactly dunnstral/taly i admit but i think scum just win regardless if that is the case

[Dannflor]

like if shirou is scum for instance i think they are fully capable of dodging lims for 3-4 days

idk that they are getting spared as scum though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay yeah I wasn't following all of the ending math when implo talked about what happens when we have town!dunn and we then spare town but I expanded it all out and added the probabilities and it does look like 59.7% (almost 60% as implo stated) when Dunn is town - overall I prefer to look at the chances of Dunn being scum/town as 3/11 and 8/11 rather than 3/12 and 9/12 because I'm town, and by the same reasoning every other town player can consider Dunn's rates as being out of 11 rather than 12.

3/11

that Dunn is scum and we go to 2:9 sparegame. To win from there, we have to spare correctly at 11p, 9p, 7p and 5p, for total probability of (9/11) (7/9) (5/7) (3/5) = 3/11 or about 27%. In the 8/11 that Dunn is town,

In that 8/11 town!Dunn the EV is 59.7%, making the total EV by my calculation:

3/11 (scum!Dunn) * 27.27% (EV of 11p 9:2 sparegame with an 0:1 spare ratio) + 8/11 town!Dunn * 59.7% (EV of 11p 8:3 sparegame with a 1:0 spare ratio) = 50.9% EV overall from Mercy route

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I meant to recolor all of the places I changed implosions numbers from 12 denominator to 11 denominator in green so it was clear they were not the original post but rather the numbers from town POV but changing the numbers doesn't change the overall EV by a noticeable amount (I did the same thing when double checking the Fight EV and changing the denominator doesn't really affect it).

I'm going to have time to catch up during D4 regardless so I'll probably just vote mercy once Dunn has had enough time

[Taly]

im going to pass away if

dunn

is scum