Mini 2320: Smuggler's Port II [Endgame]

[Gamma Emerald]

Sup nerds
VOTE: Ssbm_kyouko
I expect great things from you

[Gamma Emerald]

btw I interpret the win conditions as saying that if 1 smuggler is voted out and the other fails to guess the Tomboy Daughter, town wins, is that correct?

[Gamma Emerald]

>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game

Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way

Does this account for TD not doing a shipment?

[Gamma Emerald]

I mean PA not TD lol

[Gamma Emerald]

Question is do we want to try to gather 2 nights of info or just go off of one

[Gamma Emerald]

I’ve been vibing

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm pretty sure the breaking strategy here is to just give ourselves triple Masons

I think Kyouko's plan comes from town though

How does this plan work?

[Gamma Emerald]

I think kyouko’s plan might be the best idea rn, it feels pretty concrete
Anyway, now down to meat and potatoes

VOTE: SirCakez
Something about that kyouko vote bothers me. It might be that post after.

[Gamma Emerald]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

Now I’m confused
What exactly are you saying here?

[Gamma Emerald]

I see absolutely zero indication that smugglers have the ability to know anything about the shipment? I believe the PA is the only person that gets that level of info

Also, PA knows who TD is so PA can just lie

[Gamma Emerald]

Oh I missed the part where it was public, noted.

But like, in that case doesn’t kyouko plan just prevent that entirely?

[Gamma Emerald]

I like this

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Claptastik

Feels like a low-effort policy vote.

He discussed no-kill...I have a reason to vote someone!

I don’t know about policy but atsi dies feel quite uninvolved

[Gamma Emerald]

This ISO, woof.

Agreed, but to tell the truth, I don't think yours is much better.

What problem are you seeing?

[Gamma Emerald]

There's a pretty noticeable difference in our ISOs in that this one isn't posting things that are meaningless or worse.

You have a vague anti-town charge that you don't follow up on, then a few one-liners on setup spec. IMO it's not a great read.

SirCakez going "uhhh i dont understand *votes kyouko*" is glaringly obviously anti-town when she's literally in the process of basically solving the game for us. If that's "vague" to you... jeez.

Thoughts on this

@Clap

?

[Gamma Emerald]

Sorry
Work has been kicking my ass

[Gamma Emerald]

I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping

Copper

I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.

I'm shipping

Copper

[Gamma Emerald]

There's a pretty noticeable difference in our ISOs in that this one isn't posting things that are meaningless or worse.

You have a vague anti-town charge that you don't follow up on, then a few one-liners on setup spec. IMO it's not a great read.

SirCakez going "uhhh i dont understand *votes kyouko*" is glaringly obviously anti-town when she's literally in the process of basically solving the game for us. If that's "vague" to you... jeez.

I feel like my vote on kyouko was pretty obviously a joke and I don't like how you're twisting it into me voting her because she was solving mech

I feel like due to most of the discussion being mech related, stretches aren’t exactly scummy here since there isn’t much play to grasp in terms of standard play

[Gamma Emerald]

Pls confirm which item you are shipping

[Gamma Emerald]

class is over tho

[Gamma Emerald]

Pls confirm which item you are shipping

I thought I already said I was fine with the plan. Sorry.

Okay

[Gamma Emerald]

What’s your issue with it?

[Gamma Emerald]

What’s your issue with it?

Specifically the D2 rush

[Gamma Emerald]

D2 could move quickly or take a lot of time. Depends on the night results.

This. Idk if Dunn realized this

[Gamma Emerald]

If we’re yeeting someone that isn’t kyouko I’d prefer atsi

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: atsi

[Gamma Emerald]

I think you should address the issue that scum!Hu Tao would likely be more self-conscious
I think that’s the biggest proponent towards not voting her

[Gamma Emerald]

I think you should address the issue that scum!Hu Tao would likely be more self-conscious
I think that’s the biggest proponent towards not voting her

I'm starting to think maybe it's hpe over atsi. What do you think?

It’s possible but I think atsi has broader support

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm sorry but HPE's outrage seems so fake to me. It's not that serious. The argument is basically: "You were good at scum last game, so this game since you aren't 100% clear on something the first time, you're probably scum again"

Yeag
I don’t get how it fails to reconcile your performance that game with how you’re playing here, you drew a LOT of attention by doing what you did.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think you should address the issue that scum!Hu Tao would likely be more self-conscious
I think that’s the biggest proponent towards not voting her

I'm starting to think maybe it's hpe over atsi. What do you think?

It’s possible

Read the full post ffs
I’m saying I think atsi is the better flip

[Gamma Emerald]

You seem to be acting like everyone else is the problem when your mindset here is incredibly short-sighted.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think you’re not considering the long-term ramifications of Hu Tao’s play if she’s scum

[Gamma Emerald]

There’s only 2 ways to effectively interfere, and both result in the scum getting insta-voted?

[Gamma Emerald]

There’s only 2 ways to effectively interfere, and both result in the scum getting insta-voted?

They're losing either way unless they come up with something or get lucky, literally a matter of time.

Why are you acting like Hu Tao is gonna get away, then?

[Gamma Emerald]

@Celeb

why has your vote not moved in forever?

[Gamma Emerald]

What do you two think of Dunn and Cakez?

I don’t feel strong suspicion on either rn but don’t feel like either is in townlock zone rn
Kiiinda feel like if 1 of them is scum, it might be Dunn. I believe the D2 rush has decent potential to work, and we can always ask the mod before trying I think? If a rules patch gets applied then it was never destined to work but if the mod allows it then the blitz play seems solid.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: kyouko
I don’t think there’s sufficient support for anything else atp

[Gamma Emerald]

[Gamma Emerald]

I’m shipping wheat

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: atsi

[Gamma Emerald]

There is no shipment
Either we hit scum or we lose today

[Gamma Emerald]

This is like Shot in the Dark on Survivor.

You’re right actually

[Gamma Emerald]

This game was fun because I got to trust Roden unconditionally

[Gamma Emerald]

I was really hoping to be first to thread D2 to jump atsi btw

[Gamma Emerald]

Excellent mech-play, Kyuoko!

This game is a variant of Assassins in the Palace, which is a very atypical version of Mafia and is rather polarizing, but it does have a special place in my heart! Town was able to come up with a strong mech-solve and clinch the game. Very straightforward and well done!

The image is one I had commissioned for the first iteration of the game, and I think it is fantastic.

I kinda felt bad at first that the mech solve was fominating all other content because of your thong qbout not doong mrch spec pregame

[Gamma Emerald]

I had the opposite idea, where I thought pushing to eliminate scum would make me look like a VT

[Gamma Emerald]

I didn’t really get why TD would sneak tea until that image btw