Open 892 | Nomination Mafia | Postgame

[gob]

To clarify (since I don't think it's clear).

I am saying that the MAFIA know that the TOWN do not have any WAY to get INFO on the other TWO people from the DAY 2 wagon. Except for limming one of them Day 3. then Day 4 the last person can be protected (if mafia).

SO

I think SkyGazer isn't mafia, because I don't think Mafia did that play. I think they put up all town since that was safer because BBMolla already had a bit of heat start of Day 2. And they didn't want to jeopardize their last member, their deepest wolf.

[gob]

To clarify (since I don't think it's clear).

I am saying that the MAFIA know that the TOWN do not have any WAY to get INFO on the other TWO people from the DAY 2 wagon. Except for limming one of them Day 3. then Day 4 the last person can be protected (if mafia).

SO

I think SkyGazer isn't mafia, because I don't think Mafia did that play (that being hiding a mafia in the Day 2 nominations). I think they put up all town since that was safer because BBMolla already had a bit of heat start of Day 2. And they didn't want to jeopardize their last member, their deepest wolf.

[gob]

I've actually convinced myself to go (person most likely mafia) -> Skygazer 100% of the time here though.

I won't be outplayed.

[gob]

No kills setups are FUN

[Roulette]

Black's case on me has logic

[Bellaphant]

Gob, respectfully, that was a whole lot of words with a very damp squib.

[Black]

Black's case on me has logic

Who do you think it is? I'm not completely convinced it's you. I was practically sold on it until the nominations came out but I don't understand why you would nominate yourself here unless it was for the wifom

I meant to do the Bella/molla interactions last night but I drank a little too much wine and now I'm awake at 3 AM with heartburn

[Black]

I think I'm suspicious of gob and Skygazer simply because they weren't nominated today. Scum have to nominate themselves in two days from now so I don't really think they would risk it here? These two were both nominated D2 so maybe there was a sense of "ok I already nominated myself once so I'm clear" from one of them. But if that's the case then maybe they felt like they could safely get away with being nominated today and they would have thrown themselves in

This setup is hard yo

[Black]

Ok moving on to bella/molla

Spoiler: bella/molla

116 is the first interaction we have between these two and it's bella defending Merlyn against a pretty harmless question of mine. Could be partner defending partner but I'm not sure if bella would openly defend her buddy like this

bella asks Merlyn why she's voting for sky in 162. Merlyn doesn't get the chance to answer because she replaces out around this time. Not a lot of interaction between these two at all

253 could be interpreted as bella wanting her partner to come back but I think town!bella would probably post this too, especially if she's waiting for an answer to her question in 162

molla replaces in and pretty quickly defends bella in 334. A little sus

Bella responds in 340 and also agrees with molla about Roulette

Out of no where bella says she's sure molla is scum in 409. This feels weird. I'm not sure what molla did in between 340 and this post that would make her so sure about his alignment. It almost feels like she's sheeping my read in 407. I'm not sure if bella would try to add pressure on molla and start the bus this early though

I find it strange that molla asked bella "why" in 414 and bella never bothers to respond. This reads slightly as a fake interaction

418 bella says "my vote is on molla at heart." I'm still wondering if they would make the call to start bussing him this early, but the general consensus of the thread is that molla=scum so it's possible

In 428 molla says "Bella/Molla/Roulette" would have been way more fun of a nomination group. I'm curious if he's trolling here and throwing himself and his partner bella in the group for shits and giggles

A lot of posts go by with no interactions between these two, until molla says his solve is Aureal/bella in 625. If these two are partners and they did decide to bus early then this could be interpreted as a distancing maneuver. bella responds in 634 with some wifom, and then molla calls this scummy in 658. molla then changes his solve to Black/Bella but for some reason he votes me over bella? Pretty strange progression here and it's probably the thing that makes me think they are partnered the most. He spent all this time with her in solves but didn't vote for her once

He finally votes bella in 713 but at this point it's a little late, and he self-hammers shortly after

Overall I'm getting conflicting feelings from this and I'm worried that some of my interpretations are off, but this is definitely possible

Conclusion: could be partnered

molla/gob coming later

[Bellaphant]

Yove missed out a lot of context? I voted him because he behaved exactly the same as when he was my scum partner in a newbie, I called his reads weirdly faked from kitty's and called out that him voting you when I was in both of his solves was weird.

[Bellaphant]

I'm mainly sorry for mollas partner because he did exactly this in the newbie: came in all dynamic then fucked off and left me in the shit!

[Black]

Yove missed out a lot of context? I voted him because he behaved exactly the same as when he was my scum partner in a newbie, I called his reads weirdly faked from kitty's and called out that him voting you when I was in both of his solves was weird.

Eh I'm sorry. I didn't do it on purpose. I'm a little hungover

[gob]

Gob, respectfully, that was a whole lot of words with a very damp squib.

damp squib?

[Black]

@mod: I'll be v/la until Monday

[Bellaphant]

Tbf, even with context, the correct move would've been to vote him forever, as his buddy, which I did, so it's not clearing!

[gob]

Tbf, even with context, the correct move would've been to vote him forever, as his buddy, which I did, so it's not clearing!

Huh?? What are you saying here?

[gob]

Since she went V/LA i guess there isnt much benefit to me not saying its Black almost 100% of the time here and I can prove it too.

[gob]

BBmolla ISO read along.

TR kittyTacky
TR Khaos (gob)
TR Aureal
Questions Black
Questions Kitty
TRs Bellaphant (says meta is not same as before)
SRs Roulette (doesn't like post)
Null Skygazer
Quetions Black

Day 1 =
TR
KittyTacky
Khaos/Gob
Aureal
Bellaphant

SR
Roulette

Null
Skygazer

No Read
Black



SRs Aureal
TRs Roulette
SRs Aureal
TR Skygazer
SRs Bella (Bella/Aureal atm)
TR Skygazer
TR Gob
Null on Black (#626)
SR Bella (658)

Day 2 =
TR
Roulette
Skygazer
Gob

SR
Aureal
Bella

Null
Black


SR Black (680)
Votes Bella

Day 3 =

SR
Black
Bella (via voting)


========

Conclusion: BBMolla is partners with Black. Unlike every other player Day 1, BBMolla never gave a read on Black. Not even a null read. Day 2 they null black. Day 3 they SR Black.

If it's not black then it would be Bellaphant here, btw. But almost certainly Black given both maf wont hop on the same wagon day 1 in a tie scenario.

[Black]

Since she went V/LA i guess there isnt much benefit to me not saying its Black almost 100% of the time here and I can prove it too.

Why would you wait until I'm V/LA to push this?

I don't think your case implicates me any more than it does Roulette or Bella

[gob]

Since she went V/LA i guess there isnt much benefit to me not saying its Black almost 100% of the time here and I can prove it too.

Why would you wait until I'm V/LA to push this?

I don't think your case implicates me any more than it does Roulette or Bella

I wasnt waiting for you to V/LA but I was waiting to see what you said.

but if you arent gonna be around that isnt helpful and becomes a waste of time

[gob]

Since she went V/LA i guess there isnt much benefit to me not saying its Black almost 100% of the time here and I can prove it too.

Why would you wait until I'm V/LA to push this?

I don't think your case implicates me any more than it does Roulette or Bella

You dont thinK BBmolla who was throwing out townreads left and right, who didnt even comment on your alignment Day 1, implicates you more than the others?

I am still open to being wrong here btw. But i think BBmolla spewed you too heavily. If BBmolla ever hard defended their partner day 1 on the basis of meta (which bb did for Bella Day 1) i am willing to listen though.

[Roulette]

I am down with flu but I will look at past mafia games of Molla in a few days

[gob]

I am down with flu but I will look at past mafia games of Molla in a few days

You only need to look if BB defends partner day 1, and how BB defends that.

Frankly though, I think it's more likely BBMolla doesn't interact much with his partners. It's just a big level of difference between how BBMolla gave everyone a read Day 1, except for Black. He only asked black one weak question early iirc.

BBmolla also always had Black in a PoE when he SR'd her eventually Day 3. The PoE went Aureal/Bella -> Black/Bella

It's a massive difference between how BBMolla interacted with every other slot compared to Black. Every other slot BB was more than willing to give a read on Day 1, even if it was to openly state a null read like with Skygazer.

[Black]

If I were scum with molla there's no way I would let him get by without talking to me or giving a read on me. Obviously this is WIFOM but I'm undefeated as scum and super competitive, why would I let that slide?

If I had to guess why he avoided me then I would think he was intimidated by me calling him out as scum so early. I tend to be wary of town players that figure me out so quickly, especially ones I'm not familiar with

It's a decent theory gob but it's just not the world we live in

[Black]

I don't think I'll get the chance this weekend but I want to look at some molla scum games to see if he ever just ignores his partner like that. I can't imagine scum ever thinking that's the right play