Toriel's Patience (end)

[RCEnigma]

Wait actually.

There are only 3 town left yeah? Like I want to believe dann and bingle can both be town. If Bingle is scum I don’t see the angle, for Sakura to talk Ydrasse out of a bingle vote to swing to a self started sakura wagon.

[RCEnigma]

Why did it get hard?

[RCEnigma]

Ok so,

Scum!bingle world: plans to angle bingle as the last spare after they get support from town initially (me I’m the dummy in this scenario) possibly dann too. Sakura pleads for the holdouts. Makes sense with an implo nk

Implo nk doesn’t really make sense if town has a stronger candidate for spare than scum has.

Am I going to talk myself into thinking the scum team is dann/bingle/Sakura? Probably not but it would be wild.

[RCEnigma]

shirou are you still scum reading me

Why shirou specifically?

[Ydrasse]

sorry that was a bad time to post knowing i had to immediately leave for a tiny bit but i guess i’m dramatic

i agree with the sentiment of never voting sakura wagon if at all possible. but i was also resigned to not being voted so was going to sort dann.

it surprises me that shirou voted me at all if he’s not
town because i feel it would be superfluous? i don’t know if mafia need to fake a process like that at this point if he’s wolf and then finds a way to disengage.

[Ydrasse]

also i think i dislike bingle’s rhetoric of “sakura disrailed my spare wagon” when said sakura wagon was… hammered very quickly by bingle meaning there was no way to like. get “back on track” on bingle. and now today the pressure of only
vote me, i am the obvious choice, so on. it makes me more hesitant to vote for bingle compared to yesterday.

[RCEnigma]

Well, consider Fmpov that shirou was the additional loud voice detracting from the counterwagon of scum (Sakura).

I’ll go back and reread yesterday at some point because it could have just been Sakura twisting my stance to pressure me into voting there but it felt like a tag team effort yesterday.

[RCEnigma]

also i think i dislike bingle’s rhetoric of “sakura disrailed my spare wagon” when said sakura wagon was… hammered very quickly by bingle meaning there was no way to like. get “back on track” on bingle. and now today the pressure of only
vote me, i am the obvious choice, so on. it makes me more hesitant to vote for bingle compared to yesterday.

That’s danns issue too, I think that’s a better way to frame it ig.

[RCEnigma]

Idk what to think about dann pinning the scum team to Sakura/myself/shirou because Sakura jumped to defend both of us then. But I also dunno if that’s a scum on scum kind of interaction.

It plays out with a large bit of foresight tbh.

[Ydrasse]

my mind is running around in circles right now but i kind of think the team is sakura/bingle/rce. i’m not really sure but looking at how sakura was treating people yesterday it feels as if she was a lot more diplomatic with myself and implosion and then by extension she was trying to walk back her push on dann to be nore… charismatic?

she only really engaged harshly with rce and bingle to a lesser degree. i think if that’s the team fighting to be competing spares is the best thing they can do? setting up the end game dichotomy between them, oh that was the wrong choice clearly it was me.

the issue with that though is … if bingle is town it was the only option for wolves lol. they have to contest or else lose so of course sakura has to try and tear both of them down. theyend up voting sakura anyways which makes it harder.

[Ydrasse]

it’s really hard for me to see shirou as a wolf here strictly for the fact of voting me when it only takes one other person before i can hammer. it’s disgustingly risky unless he thinks that i am too beaten down to post in endgame and won’t be able to get anyone else’s vote.

[Ydrasse]

dann is… a struggle to read. by virtue of not voting sakura i like him more but i haven’t been able to get a hold on him. i feel like his feelings have been real here and there but i’m… wary. i also don’t have as much of a focal point to read him off of yesterday, compared to everyone else. im probably going to start with the nightkills to verify if they actually did really want him.

[Ydrasse]

well that was easier than i thought.

[Ydrasse]

all of the nightkills did in fact think dann was the platonic ideal of a spare.

[Ydrasse]

Okay. I think kyouko is probably town. Alisae also a decent chance of being town but I just think Kyouko has the greatest chance to flip town in the game right now besides myself so that feels like a much safer bet.

I'm very worried about tomorrow and the fact that even if today goes well the ratio is gonna be 4:3 which makes things very hard

I think there's a decent chance Alisae or I die if kyouko is the spare - although idk how many people are even left alive who would want to spare me. but regardless it feels almost inevitable we spare scum tomorrow because I think there are town townreading scum and i don't think all the town alive are really in agreement on much of anything

I

really don't

think we should spare Sakura tomorrow or at all. Her town read on Alisae just doesn't feel real. I don't think town actually town reads that *town slip* that hard without actually *knowing* that it's a town slip. Plus, I feel like Sakura has just consistently pushed as town the people who town read her and scum read the people who scum read her, which like might be a personality tell, but also is kind of a necessary way to play as scum in this setup.

RCE's posts to and about Sakura feel like stereotypically partnery to me and feels like RCE trying to resurrect Sakura's previous widely town read status.

I also just feel like RCE's play isn't genuine. I think the read on alisae is like technically fine, but it feels over done in order to look like a unique towny read. Like I can understand town reading alisae, i don't understand consistently putting alisae a tier above Taly.

I would probably be fine with Alisae tomorrow if enough people can agree on that. I also kinda feel like at this point Alisae has just been TMI'd town by the number of people town reading Alisae

I would probably be fine with ydrasse tomorrow if enough people can agree on that. My read here has kinda gotten stale but I felt very strongly that this slot was town at one point and like, I think those earlier game reads are way more likely to be accurate here than anything else.

I would also spare Bingle tomorrow.

I was soft pushing him yesterday / the phase before to try to hide that fact but I think Bingle is a very solid spare and I feel much more confident convincing people to spare him than I do, say, implosion who everyone has shaded all game.

• Rereading Brown Eyes, I get why so many people town read her early on and I feel like reads from this era of the game are going to be much more accurate than reads formed more recently when scum are actively playing to get town read.
  
• I think Brown Eyes has pretty clearing interactions with Aristeia in 424 and 428 who I think is scum.
  
• I've kinda reversed my initial take and I think Bingle's weird push on me in 2394 and 2422 like almost never comes from scum. It's not only against the grain of the thread but Bingle isn't even trying to *look good* coming out of it. When I see scum trying to get town read by going against the grain they usually try to make it a big case or reasoning that makes them get town read but this just feels like Detective Bingle following his nose.
  
• I don't really see Bingle playing to specifically elevate anyone else nor do I really understand who his partners would be if scum.
  
• To add to the above, Brown Eyes started as a fairly widespread town read and then was gradually taken out of the pool by virtually everyone over the course of the game to basically no complaints or people trying to put the slot back in the pool. If Bingle has team mates then they are team mates in positions that are crazy good or he just doesn't have them.
  
• I don't know rereading his ISO I jsut get the vibe that he's reading and thinking about the game but he's not doing it in a way where I think he's expecting to get town read by his posts. Like he's pointedly not playing to get spared but he is playing to find town/scum and I think that type of slot is one of the most likely to flip town in this game.

i think if our spare pool for tomorrow is alisae/ydrasse/bingle then the game is just winnable tomorrow

post of all time.

[RCEnigma]

my mind is running around in circles right now but i kind of think the team is sakura/bingle/rce. i’m not really sure but looking at how sakura was treating people yesterday it feels as if she was a lot more diplomatic with myself and implosion and then by extension she was trying to walk back her push on dann to be nore… charismatic?

she only really engaged harshly with rce and bingle to a lesser degree. i think if that’s the team fighting to be competing spares is the best thing they can do? setting up the end game dichotomy between them, oh that was the wrong choice clearly it was me.

the issue with that though is … if bingle is town it was the only option for wolves lol. they have to contest or else lose so of course sakura has to try and tear both of them down. theyend up voting sakura anyways which makes it harder.

The only thing with this is why is the whole scumteam supporting alisae’s spare? Even if the argument is they can’t do anything then kyouko is the lesser of two evils.

But alisae does have 2 scum on wagon if you or shirou are town. But it’s hard for me to fathom both of you being town with that being said.

[RCEnigma]

This is a very convoluted way of sticking to Bingle with the potential of an excuse today "I was just sheeping Ali".

I think I was wrong to reconsider, Ydrasse *is* probably town and I think I was right on the money before. Scum is in Bingle/RCE/Dann, maybe someone in that trio is town too but I think it has at least 2 scum there assuming Sakura is in fact town.

Like for example, this was also the world that shirou was pushing before the flip. Sakura was also playing towards you Ydrasse in some capacity thought to flip the vote.

[RCEnigma]

Ydrasse/myself/ one of dann or bingle wouldn’t surprise me much.

[RCEnigma]

This is a very convoluted way of sticking to Bingle with the potential of an excuse today "I was just sheeping Ali".

I think I was wrong to reconsider, Ydrasse *is* probably town and I think I was right on the money before. Scum is in Bingle/RCE/Dann, maybe someone in that trio is town too but I think it has at least 2 scum there assuming Sakura is in fact town.

Like for example, this was also the world that shirou was pushing before the flip. Sakura was also playing towards you Ydrasse in some capacity thought to flip the vote.

Adding to this it kind of makes me think Sakura didn’t really expect for bingle to hammer there.

[Ydrasse]

i think sakura had already established a narrative that she couldn’t back down from wrt alisae and i’d have to look to see everyone else’s progressions more closely… i think there’s something to be said about bolstering alisae in that situation though when e is loudly pushing an incorrect read and validating that way. not a lot but it sticks out to me for obvious reasons.

[Ydrasse]

i’m utterly confused if shirou is wolf voting me. i don’t get it beyond “no one else will vote you but me” sort of thing that is supposed to translate into me trusting shirou and voting with him…?

[RCEnigma]

There’s a part of me that understands I need to stick to bingle because I’m being singled out as scum by every other slot.

Scum doesn’t necessarily need my vote they just need A townies vote.

So I guess my counterpoint to you Ydrasse is that if you are town then shirous vote on you is mostly to get your vote.

[RCEnigma]

i’m utterly confused if shirou is wolf voting me. i don’t get it beyond “no one else will vote you but me” sort of thing that is supposed to translate into me trusting shirou and voting with him…?

Yeah ya beat me to it.

[Ydrasse]

i’m about to sound like a scam artist pressuring you to reply now but if you’re town and shirou is wolf we have the chance to do the funniest thing imaginable here

[Ydrasse]

regardless i do think i should put more merit into shirou doing that. it just seems very risky and i’m unsure what scumteam needs to put themselves into that position atp?