Mini 2320: Smuggler's Port II [Endgame]

[Dunnstral]

>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game

Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way

Sure, we can do this

[Dunnstral]

Trying to get 3 town in a group likely ends up with 2 town and 1 mafia. And 1 in 3 is not very impressive odds compared to the size of the game and amount of eliminations we have to work with.

[Dunnstral]

Your plan puts us in a possibly game losing situation if a smuggler and tomboy's daughter are both in the list of 3 people. And a tricky but less fatal situation if the port authority and tom boy's daughter are in the list of 3 people.

[Dunnstral]

I mean, yes, that's a worst case scenario. I'm assuming the risk is minimal though, because the majority of the town have to play badly for that to happen. Maybe it's just me then but I think this player list is kinda stacked.

Right... your plan is good if everything goes well, but if it doesn't go well it puts us in a bad spot.

Kyouko's plan always takes the tomboy out of the equation, so we never run into a scenario where the plan goes bad like that.

[Dunnstral]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

[Dunnstral]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

Now I’m confused
What exactly are you saying here?

If we act with no plan and the shipment that the tomboy daughter is on is investigated, and no smugglers are on that shipment, they can narrow things down that way. I was providing a counter to the argument that following the plan made things easier for mafia to figure out who the tomboy daughter is.

[Dunnstral]

• The result of the investigation, including the
  type of the shipment
  , players who picked that
  shipment
  , and whether or not
  Tea
  was found in the
  shipment
  , will be
  publicly announced
  at the beginning of the day.

[Dunnstral]

I was providing a counter to the argument that following the plan made things easier for mafia to figure out who the tomboy daughter is.

I was explaining that there is some risk either way.

[Dunnstral]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

What if both smugglers ship the third item? Serious question, I'm still on my coffee and haven't thought this setup through, maybe I'm missing something, but if they both stay off the two items that are eligible for search, then tea on the shipment would give them a PR pool.

We are talking about 2 different plans here. In Kyouko's plan, the shipment with the tomboy daughter should not be searched

[Dunnstral]

No elimination is a bad move, I feel. Smugglers win if both are alive on day 3.

[Dunnstral]

And the PA never inspects themself or the TD

Quick note, there is no downside to the PA inspecting themselves. And the PA can reveal themselves on day 3.

[Dunnstral]

76 works for me as well

[Dunnstral]

And the PA never inspects themself or the TD

Quick note, there is no downside to the PA inspecting themselves. And the PA can reveal themselves on day 3.

If PA inspects themself, won't that just give scum a free NK?

Ah, you're right. The PA doesn't ship anything so they shouldn't inspect themselves.

[Dunnstral]

No elimination is a bad move, I feel. Smugglers win if both are alive on day 3.

They also win if we kill/expose the TD.

So do you think we would have better odds of winning by killing nobody today, and relying on the investigation results from tomorrow?

[Dunnstral]

I think this might be close enough, admittedly I joined the atsi wagon to get some reactions. If we let discussion carry on much longer it will be hard to get more info without revealing too much about possible TD-PA pairs. In saying this I reveal my hand (I'm a Merchant), but I think we kill me and make this the 3x3 - if any of these trios contains the pair of TD and PA I would prefer the investigation order to go from the TOP DOWN (L>C>W), but that will be up to the PA in the end. Obviously if I've separated the TD and PA here then the third shipment would be inspected.

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao


I think if we try to carry on for too long it might become apparent who could be partnered, whereas right now it seems like there are a few apparent non-pairs, and the non-pairs are useful for forming trios.

ALSO IMPORTANT: If tea is found on the shipment the morning of D2, we are guaranteed to eliminate scum using scenario 2b. We can disadvantage scum by stopping any chance they have at earning a NK if we are fast enough by speed-limming on D2. Scum have to submit their guess before EOD to get the nightkill and I think in fairness that means if an elimination is reached by majority, even if scum guesses in twilight before the flip is posted, scum would not be able to earn a NK.

The first player to join the thread on the morning of D2 should do the following: Vote one of the shipment members, and designate who should be shipping what on N2. For example, if Copper flips with tea, and Roden gets to the thread first on D2, he should, in his first post, do something like vote Gamma, leash Cakes to shipping Copper, and leash Celebloki to shipping Linen, and tell everyone else to ship Wheat. This should then be taken as law and all players should thereafter speedlim Gamma before scum have a chance to guess who the PA is. There is no way for scum to get into the thread first and abuse this - even if they tell us to speedlim town, because the scum will be caught on D3 anyways and the town player that they tell us to speedlim is guaranteed to not be either the PA or the TD, which means scum doesn't improve their chances of guessing the TD. Obviously if scum gets to thread first they'll have time to guess the PA, but if we are quick we can avoid giving them much time to consider.

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

Uh... I do not like this strategy. Also I don't want to eliminate you.

[Dunnstral]

I will ship

wheat

[Dunnstral]

There's a pretty noticeable difference in our ISOs in that this one isn't posting things that are meaningless or worse.

You have a vague anti-town charge that you don't follow up on, then a few one-liners on setup spec. IMO it's not a great read.

SirCakez going "uhhh i dont understand *votes kyouko*" is glaringly obviously anti-town when she's literally in the process of basically solving the game for us. If that's "vague" to you... jeez.

I feel like my vote on kyouko was pretty obviously a joke and I don't like how you're twisting it into me voting her because she was solving mech

I feel like due to most of the discussion being mech related, stretches aren’t exactly scummy here since there isn’t much play to grasp in terms of standard play

If HPE came back and said

Yeah it's a stretch, but there isn't much to go on yet,

then I'd agree. But she didn't. She doubled down and said it's "glaringly obviously anti-town."

To both you and Cakez: This one really doesn't care about the intent of "oh it was a joke" "oh it was rvs", if someone is contributing that heavily in a very mechanically tangible way that early, you do NOT RVS them. Not going to jump the shark and call Cakez outright scum for it but it is a vote that leaves a foul taste in my mouth regardless.

Wtf kinda argument is this?

It makes sense to me.

[Dunnstral]

I also don't think we should flip Kyouko, and I don't like the idea of trying to race to end the day as fast as possible tomorrow either. I'm fine with the groups of 3 part of the plan.

[Dunnstral]

What’s your issue with it?

Specifically the D2 rush

I think trying to stop mafia from using their action like that is unlikely to work, and rushing the day instead of discussing things does not seem to be the best strategy to me.

There's a pretty noticeable difference in our ISOs in that this one isn't posting things that are meaningless or worse.

You have a vague anti-town charge that you don't follow up on, then a few one-liners on setup spec. IMO it's not a great read.

SirCakez going "uhhh i dont understand *votes kyouko*" is glaringly obviously anti-town when she's literally in the process of basically solving the game for us. If that's "vague" to you... jeez.

I feel like my vote on kyouko was pretty obviously a joke and I don't like how you're twisting it into me voting her because she was solving mech

I feel like due to most of the discussion being mech related, stretches aren’t exactly scummy here since there isn’t much play to grasp in terms of standard play

If HPE came back and said

Yeah it's a stretch, but there isn't much to go on yet,

then I'd agree. But she didn't. She doubled down and said it's "glaringly obviously anti-town."

To both you and Cakez: This one really doesn't care about the intent of "oh it was a joke" "oh it was rvs", if someone is contributing that heavily in a very mechanically tangible way that early, you do NOT RVS them. Not going to jump the shark and call Cakez outright scum for it but it is a vote that leaves a foul taste in my mouth regardless.

Wtf kinda argument is this?

It makes sense to me.

Elaborate. I don't see anything in "RVS voting someone talking mech is scummy" that is a logical argument

Voting for people who are contributing because you aren't reading their posts is anti-town no matter how you try to re-frame it. Sure, perhaps they put words in your mouth and you never said you were voting for those reasons. I still think what HighPrincess Erinys is saying makes sense.

Pls confirm which item you are shipping

I thought I already said I was fine with the plan. Sorry.

I'm starting to think we should just lim Hu Tao at this point since she still hasn't said

which item

she intends to ship.

Kind of agree, the vagueness Kyouko's talking about is giving me bad vibes. We need people to

cooperate

here.

Okay, riddle me this. If I was scum why would I even risk being 'vague' even though it's clear that I said I agree with the plan already. I think this is pretty surface level read and I'm not sure how to read it.

Why don't you just say what item you are shipping instead of getting defensive?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: atsi

[Dunnstral]

I am not convinced that Hu Tao is mafia and think Atsi is a fine vote that is unlikely to be PA or Tomboy Daughter.

[Dunnstral]

Cele could be scum tbh, they kind of said the same thing as hpe and atsi but kind of did it in the background

What do you two think of Dunn and Cakez?

Not going to be moving my vote around and giving free info on who could be paired in the town. Posts like these make it look like you folks are trying to get a feel for who could be paired as port authority and tomboy daughter, especially if you agree with the plan for day 2 and therefore have no reason to discuss reads like this.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: HighPrincessErinys
I will ship

Linen

.
Claptastik ships

Copper

.

Everyone else

ships

Wheat

.

PA

checks either

Linen

or

Copper

.

We are guaranteed to catch scum if everyone follows this strat. Any deviation from this strat should be considered a scumclaim.

Hold on, is this different from the plan ssbm_kyouko told us to follow?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: HighPrincessErinys

[Dunnstral]

I want to say it's HPE out of that group but let's take our time. No rush

There's no reason to wait and discuss things. Eliminate one of them, if it's wrong the PA will check one other person, and we are sure to eliminate the smuggler before they win by the end of day 3. And then they guess at who the tomboy daughter is.

Getting the elimination right today only matters for the smuggler's day 2 guess of who the PA is giving them an extra night kill.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: HighPrincessErinys
Kill Hu Tao, for me? :pleading:

All groups with Private Topics (PTs) will be able to converse during the Night Phase.

👀

[Dunnstral]

I will ship wheat

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: atsi

[Dunnstral]

I guessed Roden as Tomboy Daughter.

Same here

[Dunnstral]

My reasoning for guessing Roden:

What I noted in their posting was that their proposed plan did not care for accidentally outting Tomboy Daughter or Port Authority. That plus them voting for atsi indicates that they are also not afraid of accidentally eliminating Tomboy Daughter or Port Authority. They ask for reads on SirCakez on I in post 288 which would otherwise be careless and betrays a mindset that they don't mind looking at other players that nobody else is suspecting, even though that is usually where you wouldn't want to be pushing. Finally, they had an overall low post count, which makes it seem that they are avoiding giving anything away.

[Dunnstral]

I'll also say that if I did pair the town PRs together, PA should consider this when investigating: The 2 shipments that are not investigated become scum's POE to find you in. Dunnstral is probably the most enigmatic player in the lobby imo which is why his pool is at the bottom of the paired investigation priority. I think if he is town then it will be hard to tell if he is vanilla or PR, which means not investigating him makes it harder for you to get found by extension.

If your opinion on who is an enigma differs, maybe you switch it up and leave them uninvestigated instead

I appreciated this post. I do try to avoid giving tells that would make me look like a vt equivalent in these sorts of setups. In this game I was hoping my push on Atsi over you would make it look like I was unafraid to eliminate the port authority or tomboy daughter