Mafia Reunion | Postgame

[Radical Rat]

Without any publicly known names, cult has a functionally random chance to hit 1 in 12 people.

With Gamma being ascetic, Flavor being immune to recruitment, and DV being 3P immune to recruitment (which like. 3P basically HAS to be immune to work in this kind of setup), scum has a 25% failure rate tonight if we hit cult, or a 27% failure rate if we hit Town. If we eliminate DV, that failure rate drops to 18%.

I think 25 and 27 are better numbers than 18, plus the chance of hitting ACTUAL scum instead of being paranoid about what DV MIGHT be hiding.

On D3, we can revisit this, as by then things matter a bit less since cult will have probably learned some names and have ruled out others if failed recruits happen. But for today? It's just not a good move.

[Aureal]

i do expect scum to be on deas if this goes through though as it simply is too much of an opportunity for them to pass up on i imagine

i personally dont see major scum motivation for taking out DV here this way.

Like they're unrecruitable, sure, but Gamma and I also claimed that, so I feel like I am a bigger threat to scum than DV is right now.

I... suppose you

would

feel that way.

I don't think the scum team necessarily shares your sentiment. Didn't you start the game out complaining about how you had no idea how to find scum in a cult game?

[Gamma Emerald]

on computer, I actually read FLs post 525 a bit closer and I dislike it less now
still think DV is not a good elim currently

[Aureal]

fuck it, let's just kill me

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

I hate cult games.

Theta is scum. I standby DV would always be the best fade Day 1. Have fun.

No to all of this

Including that you hate cult games

[Radical Rat]

i do expect scum to be on deas if this goes through though as it simply is too much of an opportunity for them to pass up on i imagine

i personally dont see major scum motivation for taking out DV here this way.

Like they're unrecruitable, sure, but Gamma and I also claimed that, so I feel like I am a bigger threat to scum than DV is right now.

What angle do you think is available to scum to try to push claimed Town immunity?
They have to just claim not to believe you, convince other people not to believe you, and then find a way to backpedal after the flip.

With 3P, it's a much easier sell, and removing them solves a similar problem.

[Flavor Leaf]

when DV's not the exact role they claimed, just know...

I'm here with a big I told yall so

Drew can be there with a 'i told yall first', thats fine

[Radical Rat]

I fully expect DV to be hiding some aspect.

I don't think whatever he's hiding outweighs the benefits of leaving him be temporarily.

[Flavor Leaf]

Without any publicly known names, cult has a functionally random chance to hit 1 in 12 people.

With Gamma being ascetic, Flavor being immune to recruitment, and DV being 3P immune to recruitment (which like. 3P basically HAS to be immune to work in this kind of setup), scum has a 25% failure rate tonight if we hit cult, or a 27% failure rate if we hit Town. If we eliminate DV, that failure rate drops to 18%.

I think 25 and 27 are better numbers than 18, plus the chance of hitting ACTUAL scum instead of being paranoid about what DV MIGHT be hiding.

On D3, we can revisit this, as by then things matter a bit less since cult will have probably learned some names and have ruled out others if failed recruits happen. But for today? It's just not a good move.

this is only at face value and not counting for possible actions. I think it checks out as occam's, though.

[Flavor Leaf]

thing is, im not really as afraid of a cult hitting their action as a lot of you seem to be?

i feel like that's one of the key things in being able to read cult is finding out who they recruited.

[Flavor Leaf]

i guess that makes sense, though, seems like one of those things id have a different opinion on that i can see it fair being seen the other way.

[Aureal]

I feel confident that elimination means the standard use of elimination- by vote, not

any

method of being removed from the game like nightkills. It means we can't vote him out day two. Not that he can't be killed at night.

Voting and eliminating that way is not targeting. That is worded incorrectly if that is the correct.

I don't think the use of the word 'targeting' here means anything in particular, but elimination certainly does. I mean, how the heck else do you phrase that? I guess the use of the word "all"

could

suggest there's things other than the vote that are included but since it also specifies day then... what could it possibly be? I doubt there's dayvigs available here.

[Flavor Leaf]

i dont think it's NK15, though. It's probs Titus if there's scum on the DV wagon.

[Flavor Leaf]

I feel confident that elimination means the standard use of elimination- by vote, not

any

method of being removed from the game like nightkills. It means we can't vote him out day two. Not that he can't be killed at night.

Voting and eliminating that way is not targeting. That is worded incorrectly if that is the correct.

I don't think the use of the word 'targeting' here means anything in particular, but elimination certainly does. I mean, how the heck else do you phrase that? I guess the use of the word "all"

could

suggest there's things other than the vote that are included but since it also specifies day then... what could it possibly be? I doubt there's dayvigs available here.

i see something saying target, in most scenarios, it requires specifically targeting.

[Flavor Leaf]

well, this was a fun day at the office.

glad i could cause a bit of a stir.

go nuts. imma play some bg3.

[Flavor Leaf]

and uhhh...if day ends...

ribbit.

[Radical Rat]

thing is, im not really as afraid of a cult hitting their action as a lot of you seem to be?

i feel like that's one of the key things in being able to read cult is finding out who they recruited.

If it were a regular scumkill, I might agree with you.

But finding out who they recruited is... not super helpful when it's random, and also not guaranteed to happen at all. We don't know if flips will show the original alignment or not, so we'd be dependent on finding contradictory investigations to confirm a recruitment, or hope the target's really bad at not suddenly changing attitudes.

The act of recruitment itself gives us no inherent information, and pretty significantly shifts the numbers balance in cult's favor. I would very much like to prevent that from happening as much as possible.

[Flavor Leaf]

thing is, im not really as afraid of a cult hitting their action as a lot of you seem to be?

i feel like that's one of the key things in being able to read cult is finding out who they recruited.

If it were a regular scumkill, I might agree with you.

But finding out who they recruited is... not super helpful when it's random, and also not guaranteed to happen at all. We don't know if flips will show the original alignment or not, so we'd be dependent on finding contradictory investigations to confirm a recruitment, or hope the target's really bad at not suddenly changing attitudes.

The act of recruitment itself gives us no inherent information, and pretty significantly shifts the numbers balance in cult's favor. I would very much like to prevent that from happening as much as possible.

this only applies if scum dont have a way to learn Real Names, which I highly doubt.

First Night, though, maybe, so I do think it holds up for Day 1.

I just find the idea of a scum team having a random thing not too great of a mechanic.

[Theta Alpine]

on the one hand i am not sure why cult would cc the 3p

but that was not actually a proper cc from titus now was it

[Radical Rat]

N1 is really all I'm talking about here.

It can definitely be assumed that scum have some kind of name cop thing going on.


(Also in case it wasn't apparent enough already, I have changed my mind about the whole massclaiming thing in light of the multiple claims of immunity on the board)

[Theta Alpine]

titus has a role that would be very easy for scum to fake as well hmm

especially after
well
the 3p claims

[Radical Rat]

I agree about Titus, but I am willing to make her commit to results first.

Will jump on board if needed though.

[Aureal]

on the one hand i am not sure why cult would cc the 3p

but that was not actually a proper cc from titus now was it

I don't know why Titus does anything she does and trying to figure it out just distresses me.

[Flavor Leaf]

i'm probably down to go back to Titus.

I've eased up on the idea of scum always in the defenders. RR and Aureal seem fine. Theta still could be scum, though, but I'm not opposed to Titus.

[Aureal]

Like, I know it might be asking too much for this stuff from Titus to make sense, but...

Titus, have you been reading the game?

Not really. I just comment on what stands out.

This game contains a single bastard mechanic, namely the factional

Enthusiasts

ability, which will involve conversions.

This is why we're talking about cults.

Oh

So Titus knows by post 240 that cult recruits.

VOTE: titus

Don't like this not just because it's on me. We have a confessed person who doesn't have our wincon. I don't get why you'd unvote DV here.

It sounds like we can potentially work with DV to get information that does help our wincon though?

DV is claiming a third party that likely doesn't exist. There is one third party according to the setup. Unless scum can convert, he's the one doing it with a fake claim.

And... doesn't know again in post 396?

Also I don't know how her role as claimed in 405 suggests no cult like she said in 241. 404 actually sorta seems to contradict the idea, even! And doesn't really agree with 405, because giving info about names and their town status doesn't mean anything in terms of who can be converted. (Those such as Gamma and FL, assuming they're town, would check the "town" box but not the "could be converted" box).

See I feel like the natural thing would be to look at the game information? I don’t know

I used my role pm, which suggests no cult and missed that spot in the setup.

Strike that the third party doesn't convert.

I CC DV as I doubt both our roles exist as I give info on who could be converted.

Each night, if get a good night's sleep, I get 3 real names, 2 of which must be town.

[Theta Alpine]

i am not sure if this is titus just being lost by irl things being too busy or if it is titus trying to fake not knowing about cult a bit too much