Open 899 - The Pizza Kids Coalition [Game Over]

[Klick]

I think by association implosion/DV is a reasonable scumteam
I can see how you read implosion play as setting up for failed coalition, but I don't know whether I'm convinced it's significantly more likely than him just being scum with T3 or Kyouko

I agree with the general logic that if implosion is town then the proposed coalition was probably a fail

But I also think you've presented plenty accurate evidence for myself!town and are paranoid about getting snowed
I'm willing to discuss the concept of DV-sxum but I don't think it's accurate

See, this is the kind of post that makes me want to just trust Klick, because it feels so logical and reasonable...

Except that I NEVER presented ANY evidence for Klick!Town this game (okay I did say at one point that he wasn't trying to be townread, but I also said at the same post that this could indicate he's deepwolfing and/or trying to pocket me). But also that isn't really "plenty of evidence" as Klick is putting it. My read is like 90% gut.

So, is there any actual evidence he's NOT deepwolfing? Um. Um. Not really I guess.

Also Klick, please explain why "you're willing to discuss the concept of DV scum but don't think it's accurate".

I thought it was you who went through my meta and pointed out the difference between my scum games and here

The accurate reason I'm town here is because I have high presence and interest and it shows through my posting

Could I fake it as scum? I always strive to. But I think the level of confidence and legitimate interest I've shown in my play at this point has probably passed the threshold of what I'd be able to pull off.

I think DV is town and I've already discussed why
I'm willing to talk about the alternative because I could be wrong and want to have a discussion that hones in on accuracy

[Klick]

Scum!implosion likes using valid points to push an agenda

Frankly I think town!implosion tries to push his own opinion here
I feel like implosion is trying to give little away

What agenda is he pushing?

'Don't trust the current coalition'

[DragonEater70]

I see

Why are implo/Kyo partnered?

[Klick]

Klick, this might look extremely inconsequential but knowing my best reads often come from inconsequential looking things (for example, if implo is scum here I was able to identify it just from post 19) I'm going to have to ask anyway.

1. You never answered this. Please answer:

Confession: the other day I had the opportunity to eat pizza and I gave it up for a chicken wrap, because I was tired of pizza.

Yes, I'm a heretic. VOTE: Dragon


Also, HEAL: Klick in the hopes he's town again and we just lick this game in 20 pages.

ya

"ya" as in "ya Klick is town"?

'ya' in general approval of the ideas expressed in your post, both that I am town and that we should wreck the game

With the additional context that the true purpose of the 'ya' post was mostly to intentionally express a bare minimum response to you, after you unhealed me when I ignored post 29 the first time. I knew you were looking for engagement with me and I wanted to see what you'd do if I decided not to give it to you. I thought this might be interesting because last game, you had an interesting response to being ignored early on.

2. Can you elaborate on this more?

HURT: DragonEater70

y?

To clarify I faked an SR of Klick ehen I had no read on him at all

Because I picked up on this and wanted to decide whether you were doing it because of that reason, or because you were scum unsure of how to interact with me not responding to you

Like specifically, how did hurting me help you solve me and what was your conclusion based on this.

I thought there was decent odds that you were scum unsure of how to interact with me not responding to you
I unvoted because I thought it might make it more awkward for you and possibly prompt you to do something AI
It did, you reacted with 31 and then 33, and I thought you were likely town because your analysis of the situation felt comfortable and free-flowing

[Klick]

The above is what I'm pretty sure I thought based on looking back
It wasn't quite as calculated and methodical as is expressed in the above post
It's more, I had these ideas in the moment and decided to act on them and the above is roughly the rationale I used at the time

[Klick]

Yeah okay

I see what you mean

I think the solve is just implo/Klick or implo/DV

do u think that implo is distancing?
last time implo ended up bussing std and carrying the scumteam to a win.

It's not distancing per se, just the feeling I'd expect scum to like, TRY to win. The way Ydra voted doesn't make any sense if she's scum with implo, it's too risky (I don't really buy the argument that it's WIFOM).

And I don't really feel implo/Kyo/T3 played like a scumteam. So I feel the scum is inside the coalition, Klick and DV being the least scrutinized ones IMO.

I think you're potentially falsely assuming that the pair of scum have to have a solid unified plan
I am prone to this thinking as well
If I were assuming that then I agree that there aren't many pairs between implosion/Kyo/T3 that are highly coordinated here (and I think you potentially poached the framework for your current theory from my analysis of them earlier?)
But something I'm starting to generally wrap my head around is that sometimes one or more members of the scumteam just aren't that plugged in

More specific to this situation, I think T3 or Kyouko could just be scum who haven't gotten that engaged with this game up to this point and that fits the potential for them to be scum with implosion here
I think this is reinforced by the post implosion made earlier where he wished T3 specifically would post more

[Klick]

I see

Why are implo/Kyo partnered?

See above
I think implosion actions fit with scum trying to dismantle the coalition
I think Kyo's actions are null in this regard and neither contribute to or take away from this inference

[DragonEater70]

HEAL: DeasVail, Klick, DragonEater70, Elements, Appearance

[DragonEater70]

If this wins I am SO going to boast about solving the game on page 6.

[DragonEater70]

I believe that this is 3/5 votes for this coalition btw

I guess you could say I put the coalition at C-2.

[Klick]

From what I can remember I think Kyouko's posts up to this point fit decently well as scum with a very simplified game plan of 'I'm not that engaged, I'm going to post vague approval of the status quo with the hopes that this makes me look towny enough to get drawn into the coalition'
I think if Kyouko is scum here that's likely the thought process

I might look at her ISO in more depth later to see if that feels right more broadly

[DeasVail]

So what do you make of it? Do you think we should just do the coalition anyway?

I will share my thoughts on this in more detail tomorrow

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HURT: Klick, DeasVail
HEAL: Ydrasse

I think I have 5 town
Weakest of the 5 is probably Ydrasse atp?

Would mean 2 scum in {implosion, Appearance, T3, ssbm_Kyouko}

The question now is, are there any teams in that 4 that have been playing like they're about to lose if this coalition passes

I have been thinking about this...

I'd been thinking that implo, if scum, wasn't looking very concerned about an all-town coalition passing. Yes, he'd been discrediting me, but it feels a bit like a token effort. He doesn't even call me scum properly. If he were losing, I don't think he'd be playing like this.

Look at this post:

*snip*

If [DragonEater70's] suggested coalition gets passed and fails, I'll probably scrutinize him in more detail but right now it feels like I just don't have a ton of power in the game.

Maybe I'm overthinking this, but it almost feels like he KNOWS my coalition will pass and fail, and he's setting up to be able to miseliminate me afterwards. I just don't think scum throws such weak shade when they see a clear trajectory of where the coalition is going, and it's going bad for them.

Now before this post I entertained the idea that implosion could be scum with Ydrasse, and that this is why he didn't try too hard to be in the coalition. But as of the last votecount before this post, my coalition was Dragon/Klick/DV/Appearance/Elements. AND, by the time 331 was made, DV had already made 299, where he seemed to be leaning toward a DKVAE coalition as well. So it seems out of place for scum!implo to go "oh well I guess I'd scrutinize DragonEater70 if his coalition fails" if he sees my coalition will most likely pass and he knows that it contains no scum.

I'm hurting Klick and DV specifically because I feel like they are the slots I scrutinized the least, and which have the highest partner equity with implo, out of the ones in my coalition:

Implosion is the player outside coalition most strongly fighting status quo
Implying implosion!scum is with someone outside coalition

If coalition does not pass, implosion's town equity goes up quite a bit

I feel this post could be partnered with implosion.

this gamestate is pretty demotivating for me. i'm pretty sure any seemingly-likely coalition right now is going to just fail and i'll be able to do things then but oy.

I think my ideal coalition right now would be me/elements/kyouko/ydrasse/(t3 or maybe klick)

The "maybe Klick" is like a tiny bit +partner distancing wise.

Also implo has no stated read on DV anywhere except the "hmm 69 is interesting but I don't know what I think about it". Which never lead to anything (I don't count saying "it could be a post scum made and could mean something about his partner" leading to anything).

So if implo is scum (and I admit I might be tunneled here), I think one of these is his partner.

@Everyone - thoughts?

Generally speaking, I think preflipping under the assumption anyone is scum is actually more fine in this setup than usual because we get sort of a "trial flip" in the coalition phase where partner theories can be put to the test. I think what you've posted here about scum!implo tracks if he is scum - that likely he has a partner amongst {Dragon/Klick/DV/Appearance/Elements}, otherwise, scum!implo is giving up and hoping that town!{Dragon/Klick/DV/Appearance/Elements} are going to second-guess that coalition if he "blesses" it. At the same time, his suggested coalition is like, mostly opposite of yours so I don't think he's trying to get any of you to second-guess it, as his coalition is just going to reinforce the thinking that yours is pure. Like he knows he's mistrusted at this point I think.

I think the only reason I'm in his suggested coalition there is you and I have been butting heads but I don't see that as a good reason in this setup - scum are going to want to be distanced 1-on and 1-off, or just get 2 on. From a town!implo POV he should be more wary that you and I could be partnered I think.

Individually I can see DV as scum, I'll take a look if he seems partnered with implo as I look more into DV's reads/stances. I think I might just TR Klick's playstyle, I'd have to read a scumgame or 2 to be sure of that, but I don't have the bandwidth right now.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

oh I meant to color my response in green, didn't preview

[DragonEater70]

HURT: all

Don't want this hammered before I see what Elements thinks andDV's additional thoughts

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm having a hard time seeing

why

DV is town. I feel like I can see that he

looks

town, but I also see a lot of agreeing. Like "I thought that too" kind of posting, and I feel like that's how scum gets into the coalition the easiest.

I think that's how I'd do it at least

DV is a very agreeable person
This has been established already

I think by association implosion/DV is a reasonable scumteam
I can see how you read implosion play as setting up for failed coalition, but I don't know whether I'm convinced it's significantly more likely than him just being scum with T3 or Kyouko

I agree with the general logic that if implosion is town then the proposed coalition was probably a fail

But I also think you've presented plenty accurate evidence for myself!town and are paranoid about getting snowed
I'm willing to discuss the concept of DV-sxum but I don't think it's accurate

Something about these vibes off

Maybe it's just the first post discoloring the one that immediately follows it, but when I said "I TR Klick's playstyle" it's because his posting almost always looks like stream-of-consciousness. I just don't really feel like 364 flows the way Klick's posts normally do. I think it's that the line between being "agreeable" and repeatedly saying "I thought that too" isn't there for me. Maybe I'm remembering DV wrong and conflating "I agree" and "I thought that too", but the distinction is that if he agrees with something he isn't taking any credit for the thought. If he "thought that too" he's ingratiating himself.

Also Klick's posts seem to flow together from line break to line break - like a stream of consciousness like I was saying. He posts one thought, line breaks, posts the next, line breaks... etc. "this has been established already" doesn't sound very natural to me. like the wording feels different than Klick usually sounds. Maybe most of the time as either alignment Klick passes of posts as stream-of-consciousness or very point-to-point, but here I think it's not really what he's thinking so it comes out wrong. I could see Klick-DV as a partnership, I could see DV individually scum, I can see Dragon's point that if implo is scum it would be with one of these two

HURT: Klick
I think I healed him the other day

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think at least 1 scum amongst those 3 which would preclude Appearance/T3 as a team so some of the suspicion I had about the ease of Appearance's T3 read can kind of be nixed

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think DV is town because he is talking with confidence like he has real opinions

Like this again feels 'off'

also I do think that the scum strategy even if outside a potential all-town coalition would be to not rock the boat too much. It's in town's nature to become paranoid and second-guess.

Like you're putting in the extra effort into the nuance here that makes me believe you care

but this feels like a real thought

[DragonEater70]

Okay that sells it for me

HURT: DV/Klick
HEAL: Ydrasse

I really want to heal Kyo. Can somebody explain why she's scum actually?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think DV is town because he is talking with confidence like he has real opinions

Like this again feels 'off'

also I do think that the scum strategy even if outside a potential all-town coalition would be to not rock the boat too much. It's in town's nature to become paranoid and second-guess.

Like you're putting in the extra effort into the nuance here that makes me believe you care

but this feels like a real thought

EBWOP

[DragonEater70]

Oh I forgot I wasn't healing them



I think it's clear what I meant to do

HURT: all
HEAL: Elements, Ydra, Dragon, Appearance

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nearly everything I have to say feels like a massive reach

You can still say it though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think I vibe with what Klick says

when he's not talking about DV

Especially this:

I think this is reinforced by the post implosion made earlier where he wished T3 specifically would post more

I think {implo, DV, Klick} is likely to contain both scum, and if I find one more person that doesn't really fit with town I can just heal the other 5. I think scum!Klick would be pretty good at doing what town!Klick would do and by his own admission that's kinda how he plays his scumgame. I guess that's how we all do it, but what I mean is like, scum!Klick is going to have conviction as though he's town whenever actual town leaves a vulnerability, because in his eyes they've done something wrong.

And yeah, DV makes a good point in 367 - I think that's why Klick's response to it looked natural again when his recent posting about DV did not look right. Because DV does make a good point, so it's natural to point it out in 370:

also I do think that the scum strategy even if outside a potential all-town coalition would be to not rock the boat too much. It's in town's nature to become paranoid and second-guess.

Like you're putting in the extra effort into the nuance here that makes me believe you care

Anyways what I was getting at above is that T3 might just be that 4th person that doesn't get the heal from me. It's down to T3/Appearance for my last slot right now.
HURT: all
HEAL: Kyouko, Elements, Dragon, Ydrasse

[DragonEater70]

Do you not TR our mystery alt?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I want to say Appearance is the heal but I don't see any

substantial

explanations for their reads in their ISO, and he's been questioned on it twice. He just gives low-content answers probably to help preserve the anonymity of the alt if he is town here.

I like 408:

ngl i'm starting to worry that scum's plan is not to get into a coalition but to prevent us from forming one.

But I'm not convinced this isn't something scum who is doing this exact thing can't post.

That said, looking at his actions in heals/hurts leading up to 408, it does seem like he's not doing that thing. As in, he

is trying

to form a coalition before deadline.

@Appearance, can you talk me through the reasoning for the changes in your coalition from 342/343/382?