Open 104 - The New C9 - Game Over


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Post Post #950 (ISO) » Tue Dec 16, 2008 6:38 pm

Post by darkdude »

Vote Count for Day 1


There are 19 Alive, so 10 to Lynch

Wall-E [7] (ScottHoward, M1KEMMIEMIEMKEMIKE, SiestaGuru, hewitt, zhaorx, norseman1066, StrangerCoug, )

The Central Scrutinizer [3] (matrix, well-named, atakdog, )
matrix [2] (The Central Scrutinizer, Hitch, )
Hitch [2] (The Fonz, Sun Tzu, )
StrangerCoug [1] (Caboose, )
M1KEMMIEMIEMKEMIKE [1] (Mada, )
well-named [0] ()
hewitt [0] ()
ScottHoward [0] ()
Sun Tzu [0] ()
The Fonz [0] ()
zhaorx [0] ()
Caboose [0] ()
Stef [0] ()
atakdog [0] ()
norseman1066 [0] ()
SiestaGuru [0] ()
oEJo [0] ()
Mada [0] ()

No Lynch [0] ()

Not Voting [3] (Stef, oEJo, Wall-E, )
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Post Post #951 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 7:40 am

Post by M1KEMMIEMIEMKEMIKE »

whos replaced zazier?
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Post Post #952 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 8:45 am

Post by well-named »

That was me.
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Post Post #953 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 9:21 am

Post by The Fonz »

ScottHoward wrote: Then again this is Eskimo we are talking about...
i can only imagine that omg had some reason that he thought was brilliant.
but, if i was in oejos shoes, if i was town, i would probably go along with omg, and if i was scum, i would deny omgs claim. [/quote]

Town should never lie about their roles. So if the claim was untrue, the expected thing for town to do is deny it. Scum, on the other hand, might go along with it... but I think this may have been what OMG had in mind, if EJ 'confirmed' the masonry, OMG would then deny it and 'out' EJ as scum.
reasoning: its early day 1, and im town. if i admit to being mason, nothing bad really comes of it. also, if i would assume that omg was a cop who investigated me, and he was getting his knowledge out for free, with little chance of getting nked.
The only things wrong with that are that a) TOWN SHOULD (basically) NEVER LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLES, and b) Claiming mason DOES make you more likely to get NKed. Hugely so.


[/quote]if i was scum, i would deny having anything to do with omg due to my almost automatic lynch if omg is ever found out to be not a mason.
not sure if any of these thoughts can be applied to oejo though.[/quote]

Meh, it wouldn't be a GOOD idea, but stupid scum might go along with it in order to be 'confirmed.' So I basically see the complete opposite reading to you there. It's a minor town tell to deny the masonry.
ScottHoward wrote:
The Fonz wrote:
Would you care to point me to where you think players have been softclaiming vanilla town?
i didnt say "vanilla town", and i presume that you were planning to make a case that theres a difference between claiming (or softclaiming, whatever) "vanilla town" and "town". but really, there isnt.
No, really, there's all the difference in the world.
plenty of people have already insinuated that they are town. its only natural.
Yup. Everyone talks as if they are town. This is to be expected.

to make a big deal out of somebody claiming "vanilla town", is nitty, and if we were to believe you that it gives too much info to the wolves, then claiming vanilla is perfect if claimer is actually a cop, or doc or some other power town role. a wolf isnt going to believe somebody isnt the cop just the same as i am not going to believe that same claimer is actually not mafia.
TOWN SHOULD NEVER LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLE!!!!ONE!

If you are actually a cop, you should never claim town. That's because if you subsequently claim cop, no-one will believe you, and infact they will lynch you for lying about your role.

Therefore, the reasonable expectation for town and scum alike is that anyone claiming vanilla town is actually either a vanilla townie, or scum.

The correct play as town is to not mention your role unless forced to claim it. Claiming vanilla as powerrole isn't quite as detrimental as claiming powerrole as vanilla, but it's damn bad. Because you can never then claim your real role.

Let me guess... on 2p2, do people lie about their roles as town frequently? The expectation here is that a) people don't mention their roles unless they have to and b) that if required to disclose their role, town will not lie.

claiming "vanilla town" doesnt narrow anything down for anybody. its a waste of breath, but its definitely not something that harms the village. to use an extreme example, which is the easiest way to simplify things, what if everybody claimed vanilla town? youre gonna lynch everybody?
Yes, yes it does. Because the default assumption is that decent town players will never claim vanilla town if they are not actually vanilla town. Town are expected not to lie about their roles.
and to your other point about not thinking everybody who thinks differently than you is scum, well, you might have learned that as a newbie, but you learned wrong.
No, I didn't learn wrong. Countless games have confirmed the truth of this to me. Disagreeing over game theory is not scummy.
if youre town, thats all you know. that and that there are people who are trying to deceive you in the game. now, you come across two people, player A says player X is acting scummy, player B says X is acting town. If you think also that player X is acting scummy, you have to increase the chance that player A is town and player B is scum. you dont have to make it definitive, but you must increase the chances.
No, you just assume that people read things differently to you. People legitimately disagree on what the best action for town is.
if everybody did this, the town would hardly ever lose.
No, you'd end up with massive and very angry arguments between people who just happen to view the game differently.
now, we can save the strategy and theory talk for after the game because i dont want it to turn into another distraction.
I'd rather not, because if you actually believe this stuff, you'll be barking up the wrong tree perpetually.
youve called upon atak to step up and get going. we saw your post, but if you took out ataks name, do you agree that you could insert walles name it would apply just as well? what if we inserted your name there? not much difference if you ask me.
HUGE difference. I've made very clear who I suspect, and expended a considerable amount of effort in getting a wagon going on Hitch.

Wall-E hasn't settled on a suspect, but is pointing out things he thinks are scummy. So I don't think he's in the same boat.

atakdog gives the impression that he's spent most of his time trying to look like a rational mediator between 2p2 and MS players, without actually doing much scumhunting.
one last thing, again, when applying your logic, apply it consistently. you say that bad reasoning (zhaorx's reasoning to vote for whoever for example) is a good reason to vote for somebody(zhaorx), but then say bad reasoning(scrutinizer wanting to go after the omg voters) is not a good reason to vote somebody (scrutinizer), and in the latter case, claim he is a terrible lynch.
I didn't say his reasoning was bad. I said I didn't think it would come to anything much because of the nature of the wagon. Also, note that he has not actually voted anyone on the basis of it. TCS' 'we should look at who was on the wagon' statement is based off a defensible premise, that scum are somewhat more likely to attack town than town are. I've explained that the specific circumstances of the wagon mean I don't think it really applies so much in this case, but it's a decent basis to argue from.

On the other hand, saying that a random vote seems forced makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. It was also earlier in the game; you obviously need less solid reasons to vote at that point than you do, say, now.

and write off his bad reasoning to him playing differently. well, perhaps zhaorx plays differently as well.
Except that I'm not accusing TCS of bad reasoning, so the whole house of cards falls down. Of course, it does somewhat annoy me that he hasn't actually gone back and looked at that wagon, and tried to see if he could draw conclusions from it.
just because you or whoever cant understand how zhaorx can make such claims, doesnt mean he cant be correct. i can point you to a couple recent games on 2p2 where wolves made one post and they were so odd that they were found right away, and the posts were less than 3 words each. (i can point you to more than a couple, but it would take longer to figure out which games it was)
Please do. But I look at those posts, and see standard random votes. I see nothing odd about them in any way, and therefore I can understand that a player looks at someone attacking them and thinks 'that's bullshit.' Having read a 2p2 game, then zhaorx's post makes a lot more sense in that context, and looks a lot less suspicious.

But at that point, those players voting zhaorx didn't know that he comes from a different site with completely different conventions. He just looked like he was either a newbie who didn't understand random voting, or a scum trying to make a knowingly bad argument. Therefore, it was reasonable to vote him.
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Post Post #954 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 9:24 am

Post by The Fonz »

Sorry for the double post, thought I'd stopped when I finished responding to Scott, then realised there was more:
Wall-E wrote:
ScottHoward wrote:
Wall-E wrote: 1. his vote for zazier
How does my random vote prove I have not read the thread? I've already said once that I even had a small reason for the vote. Can you specify?
As stated, zazier wasn’t in the game when you voted. That’s absolute proof. Anything else would be gravy.
And I have addressed this. There's nothing more to say about it. During my read, Zazie struck me as scummy. I needed a random vote, so I voted Zazie. Fair?

BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

Alarm bells!

Was your vote because Zazie struck you as scummy, or was it random? The two are not compatible.
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Post Post #955 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 9:55 am

Post by hewitt »

Or was it a semi-random vote? You posed it as a random vote but really you voted for Zazier because you thought he was a little scummy? The two can actually be compatible but only if you keep it in your own mind not written out and telling everybody about it.

Why did Zazier stike you as scummy Wall-E?
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Post Post #956 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 10:21 am

Post by The Fonz »

I very much do not like hewitt giving excuses for Wall-E before Wall-E has had the opportunity to answer the question himself. Possibly scum connection there.
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Post Post #957 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 10:33 am

Post by hewitt »

The Fonz wrote:I very much do not like hewitt giving excuses for Wall-E before Wall-E has had the opportunity to answer the question himself. Possibly scum connection there.
Yes, you're absolutely right. Of course I'm connected to him, which is exactly why I've been compaigning to lynch him. Makes PERFECT sense.

It wasn't an excuse (holds back insulting word), I stated that it would've made sense if he didn't tell everybody but since he did it was suspicious. I then went on to ask him what made Zazier seem scummy to him. Why so quick to jump on my back Fonz? Especially when you apparently haven't been reading very closely?
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Post Post #958 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 10:41 am

Post by The Fonz »

hewitt wrote:
The Fonz wrote:I very much do not like hewitt giving excuses for Wall-E before Wall-E has had the opportunity to answer the question himself. Possibly scum connection there.
Yes, you're absolutely right. Of course I'm connected to him, which is exactly why I've been compaigning to lynch him. Makes PERFECT sense.
Yes, because scum never bus. Oh, wait...
It wasn't an excuse (holds back insulting word), I stated that it would've made sense if he didn't tell everybody but since he did it was suspicious. I then went on to ask him what made Zazier seem scummy to him. Why so quick to jump on my back Fonz? Especially when you apparently haven't been reading very closely?
You've offered him a specific explanation of his behaviour, which he may not have come up with of his own accord. (We'll ignore the fact that it doesn't really make much sense for now). This is scummy. If you are town, why would you want to offer someone who might be scum a rationale for their behaviour, which makes it much less likely he'll slip up in his response?
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Post Post #959 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 10:49 am

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Also, your 'campaigning for his lynch' consists in making an unreasoned vote, which you then backed up with one of the worst rationales for lynching in the history of the site. Nor have you really made much effort to convince anyone else. It's perfectly common for scum to make REALLY BAD cases against one another, since they're not actually likely to get the partner lynched, but puts a separation in the town's mind.
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Post Post #960 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 10:57 am

Post by hewitt »

The Fonz wrote:Also, your 'campaigning for his lynch' consists in making an unreasoned vote, which you then backed up with one of the worst rationales for lynching in the history of the site. Nor have you really made much effort to convince anyone else. It's perfectly common for scum to make REALLY BAD cases against one another, since they're not actually likely to get the partner lynched, but puts a separation in the town's mind.
Or this could be you setting me up for the rest of the town to think I'm scum and so when Wall-E gets lynched and he turns out to be scum you can immediately flip this back around on me, pointing out this insane "connection" I apparently have with him and in turn save your own ass from being lynched if you're scum with him. At this point is it really all that unfathomable for Wall-E to get lynched? I don't know I mean a couple more votes and he's done so I think your whole "not actually likely to get the partner lynched" theory a little bit to rest. I think you're just pissed because I think you're scummy v. random vote was stupid and not the main reason to lynch Wall-E. Not everybody has to play your way Fonz and you're not always right so you can get off your high horse and quit attacking people for not playing exactly how you'd like them to play.
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Post Post #961 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 11:06 am

Post by The Fonz »

hewitt wrote:
The Fonz wrote:Also, your 'campaigning for his lynch' consists in making an unreasoned vote, which you then backed up with one of the worst rationales for lynching in the history of the site. Nor have you really made much effort to convince anyone else. It's perfectly common for scum to make REALLY BAD cases against one another, since they're not actually likely to get the partner lynched, but puts a separation in the town's mind.
Or this could be you setting me up for the rest of the town to think I'm scum and so when Wall-E gets lynched and he turns out to be scum you can immediately flip this back around on me, pointing out this insane "connection" I apparently have with him and in turn save your own ass from being lynched if you're scum with him.
Except that I'm not scum, let alone with Wall-E, so that doesn't work. I attacked you for doing something that has obvious benefits if you're scum with Wall-E, and is obviously detrimental to the town if you're part of it. Now, did you do it deliberately as scum to help a buddy, or were you ignorant of why it was a bad idea to do as town? This is what the rest of us have to ascertain.

Let me ask you this: if you spot something that you think points to a connection between two other players, as town, do you believe you should keep it to yourself?
At this point is it really all that unfathomable for Wall-E to get lynched? I don't know I mean a couple more votes and he's done so I think your whole "not actually likely to get the partner lynched" theory a little bit to rest.
My point was not that he was an unviable lynch, but that your argument was sufficiently bad that it wasn't going to convince anyone else to vote him.
I think you're just pissed because I think you're scummy v. random vote was stupid and not the main reason to lynch Wall-E. Not everybody has to play your way Fonz and you're not always right so you can get off your high horse and quit attacking people for not playing exactly how you'd like them to play.
You've never stated before you think I'm scummy. And not everyone has to play my way, but if someone is playing in a way that makes more sense for scum than town- like you just then- I attack them for it. It's called scumhunting. You should try it.
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Post Post #962 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 11:15 am

Post by hewitt »

You're correct I haven't stated that I think you're scummy because i don't so I don't know why you threw that in there. And of course you would deny being scum, especially with someone who's the closest to being lynched.

Please explain what I've done to be a hindrance to the town.
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Post Post #963 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 11:22 am

Post by The Fonz »

hewitt wrote:You're correct I haven't stated that I think you're scummy because i don't so I don't know why you threw that in there. And of course you would deny being scum, especially with someone who's the closest to being lynched.
I think you're just pissed because I think you're scummy v. random vote was stupid and not the main reason to lynch Wall-E.
You said in the post above that you think I'm 'just pissed off because you think I'm scummy'. Now you're saying you don't think I'm scummy. Which is it? Make your mind up.
Please explain what I've done to be a hindrance to the town.
You've given Wall-E a rationale for his claim that he 'random voted' someone because they were scummy, without letting him answer for himself. Now, if Wall-E's scum, he has an easy out, where if you'd let him answer for himself, it could have been revealing. Therefore, you've directly harmed my attempt to gain information which might give me a clue as to Wall-E's alignment.
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Post Post #964 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 11:22 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

I honestly believe The Fonz to be winning his argument with hewitt, and my gut has a slight scum read on the latter. Need to probe this, though.
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Post Post #965 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 11:29 am

Post by hewitt »

Okay well apparently you've never played a sport. Let me explain what you're misinterpreting.

I said I think you're scummy v. random vote was stupid.

v. stands for VERSUS. you know like versus, v., vs. So I didn't call you scummy, chill on that. I would've assumed that everybody understands that a lot of people cast semi-random votes so I'm sorry I ruined your chance to get some information but I just didn't think it was that good of a point.
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Post Post #966 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 11:36 am

Post by The Fonz »

hewitt wrote:Okay well apparently you've never played a sport. Let me explain what you're misinterpreting.
No, I'm a keen sportsman.

I said I think you're scummy v. random vote was stupid.
v. stands for VERSUS. you know like versus, v., vs.
YES, I KNOW! Here's what you wrote:

'I think you're just pissed because I think you're scummy v. random vote was stupid.'

I read this as: 'I think you're just pissed because I think you're scummy. As opposed to (vs) thinking the random vote was stupid.'
So I didn't call you scummy, chill on that. I would've assumed that everybody understands that a lot of people cast semi-random votes so I'm sorry I ruined your chance to get some information but I just didn't think it was that good of a point.
Everybody understands? I think everyone understands that votes cast at this stage should never be remotely random.
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Post Post #967 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 11:55 am

Post by hewitt »

Well I'm sorry you read it that way but that's not what I meant at all. I just realized I should've used your not you're so my bad. I should've waited for Wall-E to reply but I guess I just get impatient sometimes because some people take forever to post and I wanted to throw my opinion in because I do that. Didn't mean to give Wall-E an excuse but I doubt he was gonna say what I said anyway.
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Post Post #968 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:11 pm

Post by The Fonz »

The point is we'll never know.

In general, it is a bad idea to answer for someone. (In addition, as I say, the answer you gave for him I don't find satisfactory, and would still like Wall-E to clarify himself).

hewitt, are you trying to say: 'I think you're just pissed, because I said that what you were saying regarding Wall-E's random vote was stupid?' I think so, but your use of English is still not entirely clear.
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Post Post #969 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:22 pm

Post by hewitt »

Read it slow then maybe you'll get it and that's what I meant when I wrote it, but since you misunderstood the v. then it doesn't matter.
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Post Post #970 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:53 pm

Post by The Fonz »

I didn't misunderstand the v. You're not expressing yourself very clearly.
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Post Post #971 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:55 pm

Post by hewitt »

The Fonz wrote:I didn't misunderstand the v. You're not expressing yourself very clearly.
Then what are you confused about?
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Post Post #972 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:56 pm

Post by ScottHoward »

Fonz, in response to this:
Wall-E wrote: During my read, Zazie struck me as scummy. I needed a random vote, so I voted Zazie. Fair?
You said:
The Fonz wrote: BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!
Alarm bells!
Was your vote because Zazie struck you as scummy, or was it random? The two are not compatible.
Fine. I would have made the same comment, exept, I already did, like 11 pages ago. A few minutes after walle made his thread entry post. Remember “by voting omg, hes indicated that he has knowledge of the thread contents and what has been going on, but that would contradict his vote for zazier.”? Surely you will agree that both your comment and mine made basically the same point? So, I made my comment relatively immediately, based on the post striking me as odd, a gut feel, a read, whatever you want to call it. You make essentially the same observation, but only after 11 pages, and after walle had to actually type the words to contradict himself. I saw the contradiction right away.
Does this at all help you understand that people can find scum in ways that you think aren’t possible? That yes, 2p2ers are more aggressive (on average) and may have “unorthodox” techniques, but perhaps they are in fact valid techniques, and dare I say, more effective?
Im not looking for a cookie. I want to reply to your comments, but I don’t want to be talking to a wall.
As far as walles comments go, if I find the time, I might reply. He asked me to quote where he said something, I quoted it, and he calls me drunk. I dont know if I can justify arguing with somebody im almost certain is scum.
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Post Post #973 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 1:07 pm

Post by ScottHoward »

also, i promised you a link or two about getting good wolf reads from one short post
in this game soah (and tarheels for that matter) is a wolf, and boo radley isnt.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59/pu ... re-359320/

in this game, reno is a wolf, cue, scott, and kokiri arent
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59/pu ... bo-359136/
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Post Post #974 (ISO) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 1:22 pm

Post by ScottHoward »

The Fonz wrote:
ScottHoward wrote: reasoning: its early day 1, and im town. if i admit to being mason, nothing bad really comes of it. also, if i would assume that omg was a cop who investigated me, and he was getting his knowledge out for free, with little chance of getting nked.
The only things wrong with that are that a) TOWN SHOULD (basically) NEVER LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLES, and b)
Claiming mason DOES make you more likely to get NKed. Hugely so
.
i cant resist. if omg claims im his mason, and im a vanilla townie and go along with him, why is it bad if i get nked? isnt that pretty much the best result of a nightkill? a plain townie gets whacked? youd rather i deny his claim, and then give the wolves a chance to kill a cop or doc? ok, suppose he and i were masons, and he claimed me his partner. your logic dictates that i must confess to being his mason, but your logic also dictates that i am now much more likely to get nked. wouldnt it then make more sense to deny his claim if i was his partner, thus making it less likely i get nked?

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