Open 899 - The Pizza Kids Coalition [Game Over]

[gob]

Apologies for the low level of posting this phase, I am kinda burned out from Mafia right now and I also don't feel I have anything meaningful to add.

saving this post for my iso

[gob]

Coalition	Voters
Ydrasse, DragonEater70, Klick, Appearance, ssbm_Kyouko (5)	DragonEater70, Klick, Ydrasse, DeasVail, ssbm_Kyouko
Elements, Klick, Ydrasse, DragonEater70, Appearance (1)	implosion
Klick, DragonEater70, Elements, Appearance, DeasVail (1)	Appearance
Not Voting (2)	T3, Elements

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to form a coalition.

A coalition has been achieved! The Coalition Phase is over, stand by for resolution.

Ydrasse, DragonEater70, Klick, Appearance, ssbm_Kyouko
Elements, Klick, Ydrasse, DragonEater70, Appearance - my slot wasn't chosen for this pool
Klick, DragonEater70, Elements, Appearance, DeasVail - my slot wasn't chosen for this pool

Appearance, DragonEater70, Klick,

Okay, I have thought about it.

Ydrasse, Kyouko, are probably the two people we want to vote between.

^ this is my work, let me explain my thought process.

I think we vote between Ydrasse and Kyouko here today (I lean Kyouko) because looking at these pools. Appearance, DE70, Klick are the people on every pool.

Unless there is two mafia in these three, which is unlikely, then we are good limming OUTSIDE this today.

The mafia obviously cannot let 5 townies get nomm'd day 1 or its over. Looking at these pools, it seems Kyouko and Ydrasse had the most incentive to push that coalition. Obviously there is the whole thing of "i know im town so I needa be in the coalition" but the mafia

needs

to be in or they lose.

This is also why I think T3's slot is most likely town. Not sure why he didn't vote on the coalition but I feel like thats more towny than not, especially considering what Elements did.

So I am sorta leaning Kyouko right now, seems other people had heat against her too.

what does everyone think?

I actually think this makes sense.

Alright now we KNOW de is wolfing

[DragonEater70]

Why

[fireisredsir]

mmm 164 is a pretty good post if dragon is scum

What does this even mean

it means that it felt well-placed as far as gaining towncred, and if you're scum then it was well-timed and well-written. i have seen you play scum (pretty well imo) but it still made me stop and consider whether it was something i should be considering out of your range

i don't think id say it's a necessarily towny post (i would say the towniest posting you have is at the end of coalition phase) but it's certainly a post that is good at looking towny. i think you'd probably agree even if you are town that there is an element of performing for the sake of getting townread I. your posts, and whenever someone has that playstyle i find it hard to parse because i just see the performance and can't tell if its town performance or scum performance

[fireisredsir]

ok i keep running into more of these posts, and i think from spec the biggest thing that rang alarm bells for me about dragon was how he kept repeatedly saying "wow i hope klick isn't pocketing me!!" in a way that felt extremely forced bc nothing that klick was doing looked like it could resemble pocketing dragon and if anything it looked way more like the opposite

and that felt like the kind of thing that i like to do as scum a lot except it was done in a much more sloppy way imo. i like to think at least that there's some finesse to the play

having read more closely now (on page 12) ill have a bit more to say about more general stuff once i have some time to type words

I think you are missing the context about the pocketing here:
Klick and I have a recently completed game where we found each other as town on like page 3, and were heavily townblocking. So I came into this game thinking "wow it'd be cool if Klick is town this game as well and we can find each other on page 2 and win". I basically said as much in my literal first post this game.

Now Klick obviously knows this, and his approach to the game in general and to my slot in particular has been similar to his approach in the last game, but there are some differences. So one could interpret it as him being town and therefore having a similar approach, with the differences being due to this being a different game. OR, one could interpret it as Klick being scum, seeing how eager I am to find him as town, and deliberately trying to imitate his play from that game in order to pocket me, but not quite succeeding due to being scum. Add to that the fact that Klick has basically been having the same reads as I and ended up sheeping me not once but twice (I wanted dragon/dv/klick/app/elements from page 6, which ended up being klick's favored coalition, and he also sheeped me onto the one that did pass), and I think it becomes pretty clear why thinking that Klick might be pocketing me is not an unreasonable thought to have.

That I currently choose to think he is town, is another matter entirely.

im relatively aware of the context, i was following along for at least part of that game, but it looks to me like you started the game deciding that "klick pocketing you" was a narrative that you were going to run with regardless of what actually happens

what you seem to be describing is just "klick is playing how he usually plays. he also played that way in the other game". i don't know why you're assigning "deliberately" to it. thats the part that feels forced to me. there's no reason that i see to believe that klick is doing this (or anything) specifically because of you. similar for the reads. when i read, it looked to me mostly like klick was working a lot in his own brain and coming to conclusions independently. even if he came to the same answers, it didn't read like a sheep to me.

what specific posts would you describe as making you think that klick may be pocketing you?

[fireisredsir]

Like I feel fireisredsir has decided to scumread me before reading my posts and is now looking for reasons to scunread me.

well thats kinda what happened. i did scumread you prior to reading the game more closely, and on reading closely im better able to support and rationalize where that scumread came from. that doesn't make it less valid, there still were specific origin points for the scumread (and i found several of them and pointed them out as i went, as well as some new ones)

i hear this like basically every time i catch up on a thread. it's just how read forming works for me

[fireisredsir]

Looking at these pools, it seems Kyouko and Ydrasse had the most incentive to push that coalition.

do you think that they did push that coalition?

Yes because mafia HAS to. I havent actually read that part of the game though.

do you see any issues with your logic here

[gob]

Looking at these pools, it seems Kyouko and Ydrasse had the most incentive to push that coalition.

do you think that they did push that coalition?

Yes because mafia HAS to. I havent actually read that part of the game though.

do you see any issues with your logic here

No thats why i posted it for peer review

[fireisredsir]

ok i tried to peer review and summarize your chain of logic so i could point out flaws and i got really lost because im not even sure how you came to the conclusions you did

i will make a couple of points though

1) ydra and kyo didn't really do a lot of active pushing of the coalition. a lot of the last minute decisions of who was in and out seemed like it came down mostly to DE and Klick

2) just because appearance, klick, and DE were in every pool doesn't mean we should be necessarily eliminating outside of those. in the previous coalition game, there was a similar scenario with 3 consensus townreads and a lot of debate around the remaining 2. the scum in the coalition was one of the consensus 3 townreads

[fireisredsir]

i would recommend reading that part of the game because its probably the most important part

[implosion]

The mafia obviously cannot let 5 townies get nomm'd day 1 or its over. Looking at these pools, it seems Kyouko and Ydrasse had the most incentive to push that coalition. Obviously there is the whole thing of "i know im town so I needa be in the coalition" but the mafia needs to be in or they lose.

I mean I understand the point (I think), but I think this logic ignores the context of how the phase actually happened here to the end. You said you haven't read it, you should just read it, it's less than a page. People had individual opinions but ultimately Dragon picked a coalition of 5 people, and then the day ended 20 minutes later with everyone voting the same coalition; no one really had to push it because the actual coalition that happened was

chosen

entirely by Dragon, and other people may have influenced it but their desires/influences can't be gleaned just by looking at where their final votes were.

I do think this would be a pretty needless tact for gob-scum to take

but it does feel like dragon has this energy throughout the game where he feels like he wants to be doing more, taking more control, forcing the gamestate into places he wants it to go. and he's presenting that as a town mindset, but if he is scum, then i think that kind of energy could manifest in making plays like this. i recognize it because i think i have that kind of energy as scum a lot, where i want to keep doing more and keep setting things up and improving the position

Yes exactly!!

I feel like this describes exactly what I know of Dragon playing as town like to a T though. He was really kind of perpetually self-critical, overconfidently evaluating and overconfidently re-evaluating and doing this process of trying to singlehandedly mold the gamestate a bunch.

[fireisredsir]

im actually not sure if ive seen a coalition game where coalition failed and scum *wasn't* in the consensus pool of townreads. in addition to the most recent one, the two other coalition games i remember with a failed coalition had that scenario as well

its definitely possible and arguably should be more likely but it is by no means a guarantee

[fireisredsir]

I do think this would be a pretty needless tact for gob-scum to take

can you elaborate on this

[implosion]

I think fire is another person who I am sort of exceptionally bad at reading, at least I think I remember having weird trouble with reading them in some game. Their posting so far is consistent with what I remember of their towngame but I don't really remember their scumgame all that well.

I still like Dunn as a lim for today. I feel like this gamestate gives Dunn as scum every incentive to play the way he is of low throughput commentary without really committing to anything. There's lots of effort being directed kind of disorganizedly at fire and at Dragon and I feel like they're probably both town and Dunn fits well as scum in that world

I do think this would be a pretty needless tact for gob-scum to take

can you elaborate on this

I think if gob is scum he's probably happy to just keep drilling away at Dragon and getting townread by Dragon and others for it and this peer review exercise is just a way to unnecessarily draw attention to his slot

[fireisredsir]

you found me as town eventually in frenemies but it took a while, and then i think you thought i was scum in scarfolk to the end. both times you deliberated over the read pretty extensively. chromavalon we already decided doesn't count

i don't think we've played any games where i was scum but im not sure

[fireisredsir]

i guess i should stop being lazy and read the last 10 pages

[Klick]

Fire, the worry I have is that I think your current posting feels pretty towny but I also think a lot of it is influenced by a mindset where you read the game before you had an alignment, making it easier to show us a town mindset

I think a key point to define in your current analysis on DragonEater is what exactly DragonEater's range is as scum, and whether that's something he has surpassed here or not

I'd be interested in seeing you do a more extensive analysis of DragonEater's scum play and seeing what it did to influence your thoughts on the viability of Dragon!scum

[fireisredsir]

that is true and is often a challenge i run into when replacing into games. i should probably just not read games prior to replacing into them but its hard to resist

without doing further research besides what ive already read, my understanding is that dragon is a relatively new (or at least growing) player who is excited to improve and push himself to be better. i think it's dangerous to get too caught up in scumrange with that type of player. i exploited that tendency myself, and ive gotten burned by it before (if you remember gimli from hollow knight, i mostly ruled him out due to feeling like he was out of scumrange)

there's been several points this game that i think are arguably "out of range" but even ignoring the concept of range, the posting right before coalition forming feels just like... something he wouldn't do as scum. not that he couldn't, but i just can't see why he would. that's why i find it to be the most towny aspect (also, fwiw, i hadn't read that part prior to replacing)

that said i will still do a more extensive analysis since most of what ive read of dragon's games has just been when spectating for fun and not for the specific purpose of determining tendencies

[Klick]

I understand the caution with ranges in that they are variable. But I think potential growth can be accounted for while still getting something productive out of finding patterns in scum play

I'm very familiar with the 'they could fake this but I don't think they would choose to' reasoning, stuff like that is one of my favourite ways of finding town when used accurately

[fireisredsir]

what makes you most confident on dragon being town? it read to me like you were fairly confident fairly early on in the game

[DeasVail]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Appearance

implosion, is there a point in time where you expect Appearance to be less inscrutable to you?

[fireisredsir]

among us!

town entrance

[fireisredsir]

i do think that ydra reaction to coalition forming is pretty towny

[fireisredsir]

alright im caught up

i think appearance is fairly towny as well

[DeasVail]

alright im caught up

i think appearance is fairly towny as well

I truly am not sure of the scumread there by any means, but of everyone on the coalition, I think Appearance has fit the most with what I expect from scumplay. I know that it is common to interpret appearance’s style of play as scummy, but I just don’t think it’s Dragon, and I agree that Ydrasse was townie.