Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

[Yuuka Kazami]

It's not a surface glance.
They very likely did a closed loop murder.
It has its own name and everything.

Shit I am so slow.
It's so sad how long it took me to put this all together.

Oh my god.
Well at least if Kaguya is scum I'm cleared since there's basically no way I'd do this whole song and dance.

Well, maybe not. Eh.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Okay but why aren't you death tunneling them?

Because for the scenario you're talking about to have happened I'd have need to put in significant work (Get Dai to target Clownpiece, figure out a cover story for why Dai decided to target Clownpiece) for negative scum gain (Bring the game to Odds, lose the ability to kill Aya before ELO)

I'm town tho, so them checking me does not result in you getting ahead by shooting Koishi or Aya and those two were the more obvious targets.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Like, to be clear you're pretty much dead anyway because if I die, you're dying immediately after.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Okay but why aren't you death tunneling them?

Because for the scenario you're talking about to have happened I'd have need to put in significant work (Get Dai to target Clownpiece, figure out a cover story for why Dai decided to target Clownpiece) for negative scum gain (Bring the game to Odds, lose the ability to kill Aya before ELO)

I'm town tho, so them checking me does not result in you getting ahead by shooting Koishi or Aya and those two were the more obvious targets.

You're forgetting that the only reason Dai knows I was in the Clownpiece hood is cause I told her, as maf I could just stay silent and kill Clownpiece without this whole song and dance

[Daiyousei]

It's not a surface glance.
They very likely did a closed loop murder.
It has its own name and everything.

You may note I have not actually unvoted Kaguya yet! (Or maybe you may not note it, given you appear to think I'm voting for you.) But I want to go over the explanations and consider how likely I think they are given the likelihood or unlikelihood of other possibilities, and I want to do that with my own properly-functioning brain, not because anyone else in the game thread told me I'm right and it's fine if I go full speed ahead.

[Yuuka Kazami]

1. Initial thought is good point and defense.
2. Second thought things go wrong, things don't work out. Cover your angles. What if clown piece is lying about what they're going to do? What if Dai is? What if the kill doesn't go through?
3. That's the beauty of the closed loop tho, your pattern of activity matches exactly that during the beginning of the day phase. You pretty much thought you got away with it.

[Daiyousei]

It's not a surface glance.
They very likely did a closed loop murder.
It has its own name and everything.

You may note I have not actually unvoted Kaguya yet! (Or maybe you may not note it, given you appear to think I'm voting for you.) But I want to go over the explanations and consider how likely I think they are given the likelihood or unlikelihood of other possibilities, and I want to do that with my own properly-functioning brain, not because anyone else in the game thread told me I'm right and it's fine if I go full speed ahead.

(Clarification that "my own properly-functioning brain" refers to my brain not fully functioning properly at the moment, not to anyone else's brain state)

[Yuuka Kazami]

1. Initial thought is good point and defense.
2. Second thought things go wrong, things don't work out. Cover your angles. What if clown piece is lying about what they're going to do? What if Dai is? What if the kill doesn't go through?
3. That's the beauty of the closed loop tho, your pattern of activity matches exactly that during the beginning of the day phase. You pretty much thought you got away with it.

What if they're in another hood? Etc.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

What if clown piece is lying about what they're going to do? What if Dai is? What if the kill doesn't go through?

Dai townread me, Clownpiece townread me, we were all actively co-ordinating night actions. Thinking that people are lying enough to disrupt actions is a level of paranoia I don't have

That's the beauty of the closed loop tho, your pattern of activity matches exactly that during the beginning of the day phase. You pretty much thought you got away with it.

I was pretty clearly about to claim, why do you think I brought up PGO and then immediately shut up once I figured out what Marisa was talking about. Why do you think I asked for Marisa/Reisen to claim the passive disable

[Kaguya Houraisan]

What if they're in another hood? Etc.

Ah yes, a Neighborizer that targeted Clownpiece when exactly?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I was pretty clearly about to claim, why do you think I brought up PGO and then immediately shut up once I figured out what Marisa was talking about. Why do you think I asked for Marisa/Reisen to claim the passive disable

Actually, why do you think I didn't comment AT ALL about who Clownpiece could have been in a hood with

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like I was blatantly being mysterious and vagueposting about having solved the game, you think that's consistent with me not claiming the hoods?

[Yuuka Kazami]

1. Neighborhoods is the correct line of thought, there was no guarantee that clown did not have the ear of someone else.

It's paranoia to think in a game of deception that people might not be forthright with their ability or exact situation, making them more vulnerable to, pretty much what exactly just happened with players that are uncleared to each other?
Is it?

2. You were pretty clearly about to do *something* What that is and the narrative behind it is more work that I'd be glad to keep pestering about, you do seem sort of tired of me though.

[Yuuka Kazami]

I was pretty clearly about to claim, why do you think I brought up PGO and then immediately shut up once I figured out what Marisa was talking about. Why do you think I asked for Marisa/Reisen to claim the passive disable

Actually, why do you think I didn't comment AT ALL about who Clownpiece could have been in a hood with

At the time, I had no idea because I didn't know what clown did or could do. You have a mystery on your hands as to what happened with Dai that makes it ambiguous about whether they're dead or not.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Neighborhoods is the correct line of thought, there was no guarantee that clown did not have the ear of someone else.

This would be even more reason not to kill Clown

It's paranoia to think in a game of deception that people might not be forthright with their ability or exact situation, making them more vulnerable to, pretty much what exactly just happened with players that are uncleared to each other?
Is it?

Yep, the person claiming non-consec commuter who commuted n1 telling me to have Dai target them and also talking about who to cop and telling me to have Dai ready to fake a cop check is actually doing none of those things.

[Yuuka Kazami]

What if they're in another hood? Etc.

Ah yes, a Neighborizer that targeted Clownpiece when exactly?

This is really disingenuous given there are two neighborhoods that came into the first day and you have a mafia that was pretty much informed there would be multiple neighborhoods and probably some town with the ability to close them out, unless specifically, Larvae was in them.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You're tunneling on the idea that I'm scum for my D3 play while completely ignoring that my N2 play makes negative sense as scum and perfect sense as town

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Yuuka: what specifically do I gain from having Dai suicide into Clownpiece as maf?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

and I mean better than keeping the game on Evens and killing both Aya and Koishi by ELO

[Yuuka Kazami]

Neighborhoods is the correct line of thought, there was no guarantee that clown did not have the ear of someone else.

This would be even more reason not to kill Clown

It's paranoia to think in a game of deception that people might not be forthright with their ability or exact situation, making them more vulnerable to, pretty much what exactly just happened with players that are uncleared to each other?
Is it?

Yep, the person claiming non-consec commuter who commuted n1 telling me to have Dai target them and also talking about who to cop and telling me to have Dai ready to fake a cop check is actually doing none of those things.

It is extremely hard to swallow the idea of 3 people, none of whom are confirmed to each other fully claiming all of their abilities truthfully given none of us in this game haven't been burned after trusting scum before.

Aside that sounds like an argument of complexity: If the argument is circuitous and complicated, it must be true because why make a complicated lie when a simple lie will do?

There are lies of omission, lies of convenience, blahblahblah I don't need to lecture about it. You know these things.

[Yuuka Kazami]

You're tunneling on the idea that I'm scum for my D3 play while completely ignoring that my N2 play makes negative sense as scum and perfect sense as town

Not to smarm, but I thought I was a PGO scum who smells blood in the water and is taking the opportunity presented to them.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You're tunneling on the idea that I'm scum for my D3 play while completely ignoring that my N2 play makes negative sense as scum and perfect sense as town

Not to smarm, but I thought I was a PGO scum who smells blood in the water and is taking the opportunity presented to them.

That was before Koishi said no one shot at Aya or her

[Yuuka Kazami]

You're tunneling on the idea that I'm scum for my D3 play while completely ignoring that my N2 play makes negative sense as scum and perfect sense as town

Yuuka: what specifically do I gain from having Dai suicide into Clownpiece as maf?

and I mean better than keeping the game on Evens and killing both Aya and Koishi by ELO

I need to take a mafia break. I'll keep thinking on it.

[Koishi Komeiji]

I am reading along but have not really processed anything. Tomorrow, sorry, long and painful holiday.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Yuuka: what specifically do I gain from having Dai suicide into Clownpiece as maf?

Did you suggest that Dai do this or did clown piece? I remember it being clownpiece.