(micro 1101) mystery box of silver 16: tinkleton (it tinkled)

[HighPrincessErinys]

Checked in on that pin, it seems like me and Gypyx just reckon alot differently on the intent and thought process behind snow's posts. Or she's defending her scumbuddy /lh

[HighPrincessErinys]

vote count 2.5 !

Political Clout (2):

Gypyx, HighPrincessErinys

Psyche (1):

T3

Gypyx (1):

Political Clout

not voting (3):

Snow2697, Psyche, Doctor Drew

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to scrimble. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-04-05 23:26:47).

moderateur notes

• just going to re-prod snow in case he got thrown off by the outage

[.....treetrunk..]
[.........tree...]
[................]
[....t...........]
[....r...........]
[....e...statue..]
[....e......tree.]
[...........pond.]
[.........pond...]
[................]
[........pidgeo..]
[.........b...n..]
[...wer....ush...]
[flo...bush......]
[..patchofgrass..]
[...bush...bush..]

psyche was voting snow at the time. but you also just make a new vc probably

[schadd_]

vote count 2.6 !

Political Clout (2):

HighPrincessErinys, Snow2697

Snow2697 (2):

Psyche, Political Clout

Psyche (1):

T3

HighPrincessErinys (1):

Gypyx

not voting (1):

Doctor Drew

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to scrimble. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-04-05 23:26:47).

moderateur notes

• aem

[.....treetrunk..]
[.........tree...]
[................]
[....t...........]
[....r...........]
[....e...statue..]
[....e......tree.]
[...........pond.]
[.........pond...]
[................]
[...........pid..]
[.............geo]
[.....r...bush...]
[flowe.bush......]
[..patchofgrass..]
[...bush...bush..]

[HighPrincessErinys]

Diiiiiiiiiiiiiid not expect that few votes on Snow. Also keep thinking his name is uncapitalized. Oops.
VOTE: Snow

[HighPrincessErinys]

Well okay, it IS E-1. God these small games make my brain hurt.

[Doctor Drew]

snow flipping scum might resolve PC, also. So yeah, let's see this guy flipped today, please.

snow flipping scum might resolve PC, also. So yeah, let's see this guy flipped today, please.

Seeing PC's naked votes, even including against snow, don't exactly spark joy even with this in mind, but we'll see.

You don't think they are the same alignment? Or that they are probably not scum together

[Psyche]

oh how embarrassed ill be if it turns out im wrong about pc

[HighPrincessErinys]

snow flipping scum might resolve PC, also. So yeah, let's see this guy flipped today, please.

snow flipping scum might resolve PC, also. So yeah, let's see this guy flipped today, please.

Seeing PC's naked votes, even including against snow, don't exactly spark joy even with this in mind, but we'll see.

You don't think they are the same alignment? Or that they are probably not scum together

Probably not scum together, but willing to bet a fair bit on one of them being scum.

[Doctor Drew]

oh how embarrassed ill be if it turns out im wrong about pc

I remember when you basically called me out as scum on your first post one time, so if you are wrong I still think you ain't too bad.

Even Michael Jordan missed a few shots lol

[HighPrincessErinys]

Big fan of everyone disappearing off the face of the earth on da last day

[Psyche]

just one of those gamess

[HighPrincessErinys]

just one of those gamess

IT'S JUST ONE OF THOSE GAMES WHERE YOU DON'T WANNA CATCH UP
EVERYTHING IS FUCKED, EVERYBODY SUCKS
YOU DON'T REALLY KNOW WHY, BUT YOU WANNA JUSTIFY

VOTIN' SOMEONE'S HEAD OFF

[Psyche]

i will now go through the trouble of summarizing my towncase for PC in a single, decently formatted post
if my confidence in this towncase can be broken in a way that makes snowscum way less likely, i'll push off
otherwise i'll spend the rest of the day trying to form a town bloc with drew and (???) T3

[Doctor Drew]

i will now go through the trouble of summarizing my towncase for PC in a single, decently formatted post
if my confidence in this towncase can be broken in a way that makes snowscum way less likely, i'll push off
otherwise i'll spend the rest of the day trying to form a town bloc with drew and (???) T3

Honestly, I would be shocked if HPE isn't town

[Psyche]

can you list out all your "i would be shocked if" takes

[Doctor Drew]

can you list out all your "i would be shocked if" takes

You, and maybe Gyp

[Doctor Drew]

Obviously the aforementioned HPE as well

[Doctor Drew]

I am kinda surprised why PC has been danced around, but but never earnestly pushed........they seem to be the lynchpin

[Psyche]

implies a pool of...

Snow2697
Political Clout
T3

as an act of procrastination, lemme convince you why T3 is somehow very probably not scum

also the word is linchpin. not sure why a word spelled like that means what it means though.

[Psyche]

wow lynchpin is actually a valid spelling
what a word

[Psyche]

T3's opposition to the cakez wagon seems robust. Dived into meta, produced reasoning about cakez's claim that seems like it should have been even more compelling in retrospect. If it were just white-knighting, I think the townread would have either been half-hearted or been motivated more by gut / town / leaky reasons. The swap from Gypx to Robert for counterwagon purposes also seems organic. Is unfortunate for me, but think my T3 townread is in "I'm willing to bet the game on this" territory.

So this, along with some takes on the player T3 replaced, is why I townread T3. Here's a link to the first of the relevant posts: viewtopic.php?p=14132863&f=23&t=92430&u ... #p14132863

- 257 and 259 are pretty null. But is notable that t3 went out of his way to explain his position even though my reply didn't actually press him to elaborate. This initiative (slightly!) suggests a real interest in elaborating on his cakez read rather than just to address suspicion of his slot.

- 261 goes further to address an initial critique of his stance in 259. He backs up his meta read on sircakez with specific posts from other games. Again, I think if he were scum, he would have left these details up in the air. He would maybe stick to opposing the sircakez wagon, but he would avoid ruling out the wagon entirely, and probably wouldn't actually try very hard to convince people of his position on sircakez. He'd just have the correct take on sircakez and enjoy his "i told ya so" card later in the game.

- Similarly, in 387-391 discussing sircakez's claim, he doesn't stop at "I buy this" but proceeds to multipost an actually pretty solid rationale for believing the claim based on reasoning about how scum at L-1 would generate a claim. Scum at L-1 have a lot of reasons to fakeclaim a pretty strong role -- to potentially bait real PRs into claiming (or softing), and maybe more importantly to make the idea of going through with a hammer scary. I think T3 as scum would have had very good reasons to believe that his posts in this sequence could be convincing and lead to a town PR surviving D1 who would otherwise be mislimmed.

- His posting after the above are consistent with a confident townread on cakez. He strategically shifts his vote around to weaker reads to maximize the odds that someone besides cakez gets limmed. And after sircakez is limmed, he votes for me, the slot that failed to appreciate his solid reasons for townreading cakez. All this is consistent w/ the psychology of someone for whom a coherent cakez townread was their primary anchor for interpreting the game, and then someone chastened by this read's failure to correspondingly impact the game.

The (1) relative costs for scum of towncasing sircakez even after his PR claim, (2) T3's eagerness to do so thoroughly and robustly, and (3) the consistency of T3's posting outside the direct orbit of the sircakez push together strongly imply that T3 is town.

[Psyche]

i got realllly distracted
i guess ive already made the posts re: PC recently

[Snow2697]

oh how embarrassed ill be if it turns out im wrong about pc

Think first about your embarrassment when it turns out you're wrong about me.

[Psyche]

you haven't really given me a lot to work with but sure

[HighPrincessErinys]

oh how embarrassed ill be if it turns out im wrong about pc

Think first about your embarrassment when it turns out you're wrong about me.

VERY convincing.