Honestly would've been great if T3 could have been more involved yesterday; his D1 takes on cakez were spot-on.
But I feel forced into thinking it's HPE and one of -- but certainly not both of -- PC/Gypx.
I understand that HPE's longer posts don't look scummy.
But robert's iso was bad and this recent post seems misaligned with where HPE's head should be atm.
What are the weakest components of this incomplete solve?
ausuka townread
So i'll elaborate on the idea that her posting around deus/cakez/pc were very solid and convincing:
Posts as deus attracted attention were focused on sorting;
The cakez vote was well-motivated;
She declined the opportunity to add momentum to a deus mislim after a pretty robust permission structure had been set up (she could have, for example, endorsed cakez's case and joined with other igh-equity town like klick);
Immediate scrutiny of PC's pile-on vote on deus, which imo was the closest to an alignment-indicative vote in the sequence
There's other stuff in her iso that look townie too, but I'm fine just producing the sufficient reasons for townreading her slot.
Am at the point I feel fine losing the game if this read is wrong.
ausuka would have earned the win.
rejection of pc/gypx scum combo
Gypyx seriously pushed PC yesterday.
518 is the strongest statement because even after a permission structure was provided to shift to a PC townread, Gypyx remained committed to the read.
But even before that she pushed back on components of my PC read that she could have left alone if her only goal were distancing from PC.
Also, she had plenty of room to stick to PC the whole day if her goal were bussing. Instead, she opportunistically shifting to the other component of her implied solve to get the best possible outcome for the day.
If her agenda for D2 were just to look good and convey distance from PC, I don't think we'd have seen that shift.
These details convince me that Gypyx's push on PC yesterday was pretty real.
Can't quite clear her unless I can get similarly confident that she's not buds with HPE, but yeah!
PC's 551 also seems telling to me! I'll quote my post before that to emphasize the context. There were no other votes on Gypx at this point.
In post 550, Psyche wrote: gypx's snowcase was maybe a forced move after pressure around her initial snow positioning; i won't so strongly townweight it
also, the towncase isn't super compelling on its own. some assertions are a bit too inflexible about how scum choose posts to make
i don't really believe HPE is scum at this point and I don't think PC can be scum with HPE, Gypx,orSnow
so my best is on the duo actually being gypx and snow
I basically set up conditions in 550 for a wagon on snow or gypyx as a counter to the existing wagon on PC.In post 551, Political Clout wrote: VOTE: gypyx
I'll be here tomorrow. after 2. I think gypyx is just dancing around the players.
PC could have joined me on Snow just as easily as he did on Gypx with no clear damage to his credibility.
He chose Gypyx and essentially nudged me to commit to that part of my solve.
If 551 had succeeded -- and it sure looks like it intended to -- snow and drew would have been in a place to choose between him and gypyx.
From a survivalism perspective, I feel like his odds would've looked better if it were instead a choice between him and snow, since snow was basically afk.
So the vote has somewhat low equity for PC-scum while snow is town, and even lower equity for PC-scum while gypyx is also scum along with snow being town.
That said, I'm struggling to rememeber what I thought was relationally sortable between the two before D2.
And 551 is just one post: it's too risky to infer a slot's EV assumptions from just one post.
This is because people make posts that violate their base EV all the time, either because they're not thinking things through, or because they see potential for improved equity in the sort of gambit inherent in anti-EV behavior.
That's why I think gypx's posts around PC are more convincing that they aren't a pair.
[bold]something else[/bold]
would be grateful forever if someone could point out something else. please for the love of god ive been wrong two days in a row (though i dont feel so bad about the D2 one).
