(micro 1101) mystery box of silver 16: tinkleton (it tinkled)

[Gypyx]

i'm flattered but also i hope you realize i've basically got nothing to latch on this game

i'm an emotion driven player, the only emotion i'm getting is apathy and confusion

[Psyche]

i don't realize
i think you're scum

[Gypyx]

I was gonna say the fact that you have so much energy for this game is weird but then again you're the one who came at the end of the great purge

[Psyche]

Below is the votecount around 550 and some posts around that time.
There was clear momentum to eliminate PC.
A plausible scenario at this game state would've been for snow and ausuka to join the wagon.
My conclusion: as either town or scum, PC has strong incentive to get momentum going on a different wagon.

Sidebar: one of the votes in this dominant wagon against PC is from Gypyx!

Spoiler:

vote count 2.4 !

Political Clout (2):

Gypyx, HighPrincessErinys

Psyche (1):

T3

not voting (4):

Snow2697, Psyche, Ausuka, Political Clout

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to scrimble. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-04-04 16:37:01).

moderateur notes

• prodding snow2697

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I end up giving PC a bone.
Up through 550, I make a series of analysis posts trying to decide my stance on each of the slots still in the game.
To pagetop, I summarize my stance on who could be scum -- 2 of HPE/Gypx/Snow
I announce that "my best bet is on the duo actually being gypx and snow":

Spoiler:

gypx's snowcase was maybe a forced move after pressure around her initial snow positioning; i won't so strongly townweight it
also, the towncase isn't super compelling on its own. some assertions are a bit too inflexible about how scum choose posts to make
i don't really believe HPE is scum at this point and I don't think PC can be scum with HPE, Gypx,

or

Snow
so my best is on the duo actually being gypx and snow

This is an opportunity for PC,

regardless

of his faction.
I am universally townread by post 550. This means I hold considerable sway over the town.
PC voting with me would be enough to match the votes currently on him, and present the best odds of him surviving the day.
But he is at a fork in the road.
He can either nudge me to gypx, or to snow.
He picks Gypyx.

Spoiler:

VOTE: gypyx


I'll be here tomorrow. after 2. I think gypyx is just dancing around the players.

I'm confident that PC had

every

reason to think that his vote for Gypyx would encourage me to do the same.
I'd expressed a townread on him and had spent most of my analysis posts convincing myself that gypyx could be scum.
I also had good reasons at this point that I'd have a hard time moving momentum away from PC.


Now let's consider how his and gypyx's faction would impact his decison-making.
If his top goal is killing momentum against him, the most decisive question should be: "who is the easiest elimination?"

Snow is the easiest elimination at this point. Why?
Snow is a lurker through this day and all the rest.
By comparison, Gypyx on D2 is a reasonably active poster, making cases, and reasoning about reads.

Gypyx demonstrates by 550 that, in contrast to snow, she is
1) active and around to defend her self, and
2) capable of effective posting to that effect.

PC has tons of reasons to believe he's better off in a 1v1 vs Snow than in a 1v1 vs Gypyx.
But PC votes Gypyx.

PC already has good reasons as scum to prefer voting snow, even if we imagine he's not buds with Gypyx!

But if PC and Gypyx are in fact both scum, he has

even stronger

reasons to vote snow.
This is because the win condition for scum is to outnumber town.
Picking a 1v1 with a stronger player over a 1v1 with a weaker player already makes little sense.
It makes even worse sense if that player is your bud, unless you're already planning to be limmed that day and want to distance.

So I have to ask you drew or whomever replaces PC:
If PC and Gypyx are both scum, why does he try to swing me toward gypyx here instead of snow?

What could

possibly

be his reason?

[Psyche]

I'll try to summarize:

1) Because of the current votecount and my post 550, PC's 551 is best interpreted as an attempt to swing momentum against Gypyx.
2) PC's attempt to swing momemtum toward Gypyx in 551 is unlikely under a Gypyx/PC scumteam because he could have voted for Snow instead.
3) Scum-PC would have had every reason to prefer a snow vote in 551, especially if he were in a team with Gypyx.
4) The solve-neutral reason for preferring Snow was that this slot was inactive and ineffective, giving PC better prospects of winning a 1v1 with Gypyx there.
5) But under a Gypyx/PC pair, PC also would have wanted to preserve the possibility of winning on D3.
6) These factors should have outweighed the potential benefits of distancing that could come from a vote, particularly because a PC lim was by no means a foregone conclusion a 550 -- Gypyx was 50% of the wagon at that point.

Since PC had such weak reasons to vote Gypyx in 551 if both slots are scum, we should substantially discount the likelihood of the pairing.

[Psyche]

giving PC better prospects of winning a 1v1

with Gypyx

there.

ebwop

[Psyche]

mental note: i had some reasons for scumreading ausuka in post 476 but they are now defunct now that we have a snow flip

[Psyche]

Gypyx's trajectory in D2 is a push on PC that -- once snow was a foregone conclusion and deadline was close and I'd made a big deal of she/pc not being a team -- later shifted into half-hearted positioning against HPE that she didn't follow up on come D3.
This makes me confident that the PC push was genuine; she stuck with it until a snow lim was a foregone conclusion.

In 518, Gypyx also had a fork in the road moment and decided in a way inconsistent with her being in a team with PC
Here's the votecount at the time.
HPE had just decided to put a tentative vote on PC, putting the wagon at E-2.
Gypyx is already on the PC wagon, so her choice is whether to stay or keep pressing on.

Spoiler:

Psyche (1):

T3

Political Clout (2):

Gypyx, HighPrincessErinys

not voting (4):

Snow2697, Psyche, Ausuka, Political Clout

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to scrimble. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-04-04 16:37:01).

In 516, I critique HPE's vote and argue that a PC scumread is relationally implausible based on reasoning I'd shared earlier the thread.

Spoiler:

still think PC-scum is hard to fit in with other possible scumreads
don't really see people weighing that sufficiently, and his play is not sufficiently scummy on its own to justify that

If Gypyx is scum with PC, this is one of her several potential offramps for ditching the wagon.
She has a few options -- take it, decline it, or just to keep it on the table in case she decides that she benefits most from not bussing her scumbud and forcing the game to last through D4.
She declines it in 518.

Spoiler:

still think PC-scum is hard to fit in with other possible scumreads
don't really see people weighing that sufficiently, and his play is not sufficiently scummy on its own to justify that

need to think over that but i guess even if it was true it would not make me fully give up on scum PC

I again think her departure from the PC wagon once it was doomed is a sign that her push wasn't motivated by a desire for distancing.
When your goal for a push you've committed to for most of a day is to convince people that you and your bud are not a team, you avoid sending mixed signals about it.
In a team with PC, Gypyx has been spending D2 distancing from him, and has no reason to muddy the waters by shifting from one doomed wagon to another.
She could have just kept swinging the "PC is scum" flag all day.

(All this is not a scumcase for Gypyx. I have other posts about that.)

[schadd_]

the worst replaces Political Clout

[Gypyx]

seeing ducky replace in
realizing ducky is scum D:

[HighPrincessErinys]

in a perfect world each living player would post and explain a read on every slot including a likert scale rating of confidence in that read. they would also convey a stance on relevant 2-player solves allowed by their reads.

they'd also read at least my 550/551 and have a take on each leg of my current stance that is more specific than "i do or do not find this convincing"

my posts since 550/551 have mostly been me whining that there's been no discussion of it. i can accept if it's not persuasive, and even if i can be convinced that it's wrong.

but i think town maxes out its odds by trading and evaluating solves until a consensus — not a compromise — is formed that blends the combined wisdom of the group.

This one not only has its laptop, but is righteously empowered with a USB mouse instead of this dogshit trackpad. So, let's fuckin' do this.

For my own ease of access: 550 551

[Psyche]

oh it turns out those arent the right post number
i think it's like 675/676?

[HighPrincessErinys]

gypx's snowcase was maybe a forced move after pressure around her initial snow positioning; i won't so strongly townweight it
also, the towncase isn't super compelling on its own. some assertions are a bit too inflexible about how scum choose posts to make
i don't really believe HPE is scum at this point and I don't think PC can be scum with HPE, Gypx,

or

Snow
so my best is on the duo actually being gypx and snow

FIRST IMPRESSIONS: Need to review Gypyx's ISO for her position around Snow again, but either way a scum!Gypyx might also at that time think townreading Snow would lead to more towncred, ofc knowing it's a town flip. That being said, again, need to review because idk where the Snow wagon was at the time this post was made.

No particular notes otherwise.

pedit: brilliant

[HighPrincessErinys]

Figured as much but honestly fuck it we ball.

[HighPrincessErinys]

gypx's snowcase was maybe a forced move after pressure around her initial snow positioning; i won't so strongly townweight it
also, the towncase isn't super compelling on its own. some assertions are a bit too inflexible about how scum choose posts to make
i don't really believe HPE is scum at this point and I don't think PC can be scum with HPE, Gypx,

or

Snow
so my best is on the duo actually being gypx and snow

FIRST IMPRESSIONS: Need to review Gypyx's ISO for her position around Snow again, but either way a scum!Gypyx might also at that time think townreading Snow would lead to more towncred, ofc knowing it's a town flip. That being said, again, need to review because idk where the Snow wagon was at the time this post was made.

No particular notes otherwise.

pedit: brilliant

oKAY SO. Snow's wagon was NOT around at that point. Gypyx's position on Snow before townreading him... was non-existent. Gypyx literally stated she needed to get a read on Snow and then went in and found one. While this one agrees with the assessment that the towncase itself isn't anything spectacular, this IS an interesting find.

[HighPrincessErinys]

Now for what this one was actually supposed to look at...

[HighPrincessErinys]

Author's note after finishing this post: This post is going to make some heads roll.

675... is good! Ausuka towncase is good and this one definitely feels more solid on Drew. And the Gypyx/PC team thing is also good, this one finds that convincing.
676... is speculation! So we'll just move on because, well, to be frank, you're only making me more convinced Gypyx could be town after all.

You mixing posts up was a blessing in disguise for me because it's genuinely strange you'd just... make up a faulty negative position on Snow from Gypyx, and corresponding pressure on her from others (guess who checked and didn't find anyyyy) for it. You literally just... kinda lied dude. Not to mention in 675 you say you think Gypyx's push on PC was real, implying both they're not paired, as was your point, but that also it was a genuine read from town, and not a bad push from scum. On that, this one won't claim to speak for past you's intentions in the wording, but it WILL give it's own thoughts on that line of reasoning: It was totally a real read from town. You put it better than this one ever could: She's been pushing back on PC townreads, and consistently scrutinizing and voting the slot.

And, hey, if we vote out PC's slot now... we can test your "it can't be Gypyx/PC" theory!
Still waiting for the replacement to show up for now, but something tells me that this one has fucking Unlocked. Thank you Psyche, for giving my stupid tinfoil credence.

Okay but some REAL talk: There are admittedly still things that skeeve me out about Gypyx, for sure, and this is MeLo so uh lol. However there's alot that skeeves me about you now, like lying, and all this juvenile mudslinging with Gypyx the last couple pages. This one must reiterate even harder: Now is NOT a time to get comfortable with reads, because this one cannot trust Psyche anymore.

[Psyche]

i have no idea what you're talking about

[HighPrincessErinys]

Brilliant rebuttal.

[Psyche]

676 is not speculation. it's simulation. it's identifying the solves implied by my stances in 675

[Psyche]

i did not make up a faulty negative position about gypyx on snow. i argued that it was possible from gypyx's towncase on snow to come from scum as a result of pressure to explain an initially conveyed read and also as a matter of calculation.

[Psyche]

in 675 you say you think Gypyx's push on PC was real, implying both they're not paired, as was your point, but that also it was a genuine read from town, and not a bad push from scum

This is the part that most confuses me.
Thinking gypyx's push on PC was real is different from thinking that Gypyx's push on PC was from town.
All it takes for a push to be real is for it to actually intend for the target of the push to end up limmed.
Scum can make real pushes.

[HighPrincessErinys]

676 is not speculation. it's simulation. it's identifying the solves implied by my stances in 675

Okay, fair enough.
do

i did not make up a faulty negative position about gypyx on snow. i argued that it was possible from gypyx's towncase on snow to come from scum as a result of pressure to explain an initially conveyed read and also as a matter of calculation.

Sure, there's a "maybe" in there,

gypx's snowcase was maybe a forced move after pressure around her initial snow positioning

But do you honestly expect me to believe it was all just a hypothesis? There has to be pressure about her snow positioning for there to be that maybe, Psyche.

[HighPrincessErinys]

Quotes are hellish.

[Psyche]

And, hey, if we vote out PC's slot now... we can test your "it can't be Gypyx/PC" theory!

If we vote on PC's slot now, and he's town, then we lose. It's MELO.