Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kagerou townreaders: pretend you're maf and you know I'm town. Is Kagerou still town in that world?

What does this even mean? If I'm mafia then I know who my teammates are, this is a nonsense question.

Ok then pretend it's Goon + Traitor and I just IC'd. I'm basically asking if you'd give a Yuuka/Reisen solve if you replaced into my slot

[Kaguya Houraisan]

But yeah, true, unless you’re doing it on purpose to get identified that’s very fast.

Yeah and after that I'd have the benefit of obfuscating my main by focusing on mech

[Yuuka Kazami]

Why did you think unnatural was short for lie?

I also thought you were saying Reisen was lying there

But y tho.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Further than all that, I can see how the dynamic is shaping up, I can see how both of you are reacting to my posting and that gives me more data to work with and it's kind of exactly what I'd expect if I'm the necessary miselim for scum here. Maybe that's a bit too much of a martyr complex and Kagerou hasn't posted, but more or less when I replace into a slot like this I expect to get jumped on by scum because they're looking to suffocate me and don't want me posting my way out of the hole I'm in

If I wanted you dead here I could have easily just gone "" to Aya going "I wanna kill Reisen" instead of pushing Kagerou

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I also thought you were saying Reisen was lying there

But y tho.

idk it's just how I read the post

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Make no mistake, my notes are full of meta spec, but I kept it out of the game because *you can’t talk about it* but you did talk about it and then can’t proceed further and you can’t talk about it.

I have meta'd 0 people this game, even when they altslipped or when they practically announced their main.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Long line is long.
I meant using your understanding of a player to make a read, meta, not “I shall identify their main and then go read up on their games” meta.

[Aya Shameimaru]

I know what I wanna do but I want a Wolfie back to finalize my thoughts tbh.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Reading up on their games on a guess is fairly insane, to the point of feeling like scum busy work.
I imagine some might tho. I don’t think anyone did this game.

Irrelevant. Focus. Me.

[Yuuka Kazami]

You..don’t see how knowing the main of someone who flipped scum might be helpful in figuring out their weaknesses in regards to associative tells?

No what I mean is I don't expect how or why you'd expect me to recognize that? Especially when I'm only reading maybe half their posts?

Because they didn’t try to hide who they were through a gimmick or a change in posting style. It was, pretty much, intentional.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Long line is long.
I meant using your understanding of a player to make a read, meta, not “I shall identify their main and then go read up on their games” meta.

The only person I recognised is Clownpiece V2

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I know what I wanna do but I want a Wolfie back to finalize my thoughts tbh.

*One week later*

[Yuuka Kazami]

Long line is long.
I meant using your understanding of a player to make a read, meta, not “I shall identify their main and then go read up on their games” meta.

The only person I recognised is Clownpiece V2

Bullshit. <3.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

It's true!

[Yuuka Kazami]

It's true!

Are you joking or are you seriously saying that the only player you think you know the main of is clown piece V2?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I unironically only recognised Clownpiece V2 this game

[Aya Shameimaru]

I know what I wanna do but I want a Wolfie back to finalize my thoughts tbh.

*One week later*

literally I am waiting to see if Kagerou comes back or not, it's important.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

16 hours until the search for the new Kagerou starts, place your bets on how quick the process will be

[Yuuka Kazami]

Are you certain they even correctly identified you.

I can tell which posts triggered the recognition based off of the quote numbers in between and they're correctly calling me out as someone that'd bus on d1 in a way that'd make it hard to clear Kagerou from their perspective. They know who I am

I went back because I figured you were talking about some quotes Reisen posted that I had missed, but nope. None indicate they have much of an opinion on you besides they think they know who your main is. You are saying that, based on your estimate of where their reread, that you predict they found the posts that you personally find to be characteristic of your main. that they didn’t post or point to. *psyduck*

[Yuuka Kazami]

That’s borderline fortune telling. You’ve made at least 2 or 3 assumptions about how they got there.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Like this isn't working for me at least, I need to talk to the other two to get a baseline

Yuuka: new baseline. I think like 65+%ish of my townread on you comes from just existing more compared to Reisen/Kagerou. New Reisen I want to kill more than before but there's a level of OMGUS there that I'm gonna need to sort out

Why do you want to kill new Reisen more than old Reisen?

Are you gunna sort that out

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

@Reisen, that makes sense given 2/3 players talking to you are scum. When you discount Aya. But I find the general idea that the other town from your point of view would sit back and just not try to strangle you in the crib to be kind of, well, a poor generalization. Town is not more likely to be right or wrong, less or more aggressive. But, theory. Bleh.

Aight friend time.

Good luck you guys.

Be back in like 6-8 hours.

I mean.

In this spot scum has the win condition of getting town voted out. If a replacement comes in trying to shake the game up is bad for them. So they usually push hard to shut it down.

Town has a different win condition. They need to actually figure out who is town. Maybe they don't trust me, maybe they're skeptical, but I expect some lingering semblance of ~doubt~ or at a minimum trying to actually figure out my alignment. But ultimately if the town here decides to throw the game by tunneling me on replace in it's on them w/e I was just a last minute replace in.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Are you certain they even correctly identified you.

I can tell which posts triggered the recognition based off of the quote numbers in between and they're correctly calling me out as someone that'd bus on d1 in a way that'd make it hard to clear Kagerou from their perspective. They know who I am

I went back because I figured you were talking about some quotes Reisen posted that I had missed, but nope. None indicate they have much of an opinion on you besides they think they know who your main is. You are saying that, based on your estimate of where their reread, that you predict they found the posts that you personally find to be characteristic of your main. that they didn’t post or point to. *psyduck*

Reisen posts indicating where to look:

Reisen can you elaborate on your 'ew' pile? Our reads seem to align in that regard but i want to know why you feel that way

Reisen can you elaborate on your 'ew' pile? Our reads seem to align in that regard but i want to know why you feel that way

They aren’t going to be for the same reasons cuz I’m super selfish and the world revolves around me but.

I thought kagerou putting me in their town core off just my ascetic claim was super weird. Marisa piggybacked on but I get their mindset because I’m also predisposed to town reading lighthearted jokey slots especially early in games. So reads genuine.

Kagerous read felt more like my name was thrown in there for the out of the box factor, because that’s just what townies do.

Dai felt more upset that I was being considered townie for doing nothing and I could see that as more scum frustration. So could I can see multiple worlds there.

I don’t think they are together.

i guess i'd join a Kagerou wagon too but i think that read deserves more thought and reevaluation than i am currently capable of

Seems a pretty clear pocket attempt though of course I'm biased, the "i want to know why you feel that way" having the effect of making my predecessor do work to earn Larva's trust. The fact it ends with vting Dai but going "eh, I could do Kagerou maybe" is

noted

.

Ah shit I think I know who Kaguya's main is.

i will be fairly inactive through Monday, other than a few opportunities to post here and there

i plan to reread the game upon my return because i am concerned i have too many townreads and the people i've been not-town reading keep saying things that make me doubt myself which is annoying

i am feeling good about Clownpiece, Sanae, and Marisa for town, in that order

Ichirin is also close to this tier but not quite to the level of the three listed above, for the townie reaction to their wagon that Koishi is still desperately trying to get me to concede could come from scum

i am leaning town on Yuuka still but to be fair this read probably deserves more in depth reevaluation

Tenshi had a solid and imo townie defense to some pressure earlier but has done next to nothing since, so gun-to-head town but i will need more from her to cement that one way or another

Kaguya, Reisen, and Aya are slots i feel nothing about and will be one of my focuses upon reread. i will say i had even had some townpings from Reisen and Aya but nothing strong enough in either direction to make me commit

Dai and Koishi continue to mirror each other when it comes to how i feel about them, as indicated preivously, their early questions and one-off posts came across as surface level and a way to look engaged with the game without contributing anything. however Koishi has dulled that suspicion a bit with our interaction about Ichirin (even though i am growing irritated with being asked the same question in different ways over and over again >_<).

on a similar note i thought Dai's most recent post was great and conveyed the thoughts i found difficult to articulate about Kagerou. basically Koishi and Dai's body of work overall leans scum, but there have been a couple glimmers of towny-ness that shake my confidence

My only fairly solid scum read at this point is Kagerou and even that's pretty...loose? there are some posts that made me feel good on a tone level but i agree with Dai about the bulk of the ISO is pretty fluffy and i see Kagerou has over fifty posts but their actual impact this game does not at all correlate with what i expect based on their high level of activity

from what i can tell there also hasn't been much in terms of reads outside of the Clownpiece scum read (i now see the reads list provided with some interesting takes that i will look into more when i return) which she pretty much refused to elaborate on, and the reasoning she did provide also never sat well with me to begin with and came from the first page. it's difficult for me to buy that into the fact that her opinion on Clownpiece has not changed or evolved since the beginning of the game, especially since Clownpiece is my largest town read, which leads me to believe she is just holding onto it because she needs a strong opinion that goes against the grain

those are all my thoughts for now, please feel free to poke at or ask questions about anything. i am thinking this will be a game where i focus on identifying and locking in town reads and just pushing to eliminate within 'what's left'

VOTE: Kagerou Imaizumi

Given the timing and positioning of this it feels pretty unaligning. Possible Larva was attempting to bus and failing but given threadstate it feels pretty pivotal - momentum on Kagerou was real enough, bussing would be a conscious choice where from what I gather Larva had enough influence they could have pressured elsewhere. I think the general noncommittal nature of the push is setting up for it being a town flip - in general I'd expect a bus to show a little higher confidence level than what was shown.

Only note of hesitation is that if I'm right on Kaguya they'd absolutely bus a partner in that spot on Day 1. But most wouldn't. That's WIFOM at best though.

Got to admit 385 is a big oof regardless of alignment, but. Most scum aren't usually that bold with their reads. One of those cases where having meta would be a significant help.

My posts in that timeframe:

The Kagerou Townblock Trio :

Marisa / Kaguya / Reisen

i swear i have my reasons

I believe the youngsters these days would describe this as "absolutely cooked"

Also you're probably

not

in the scum PT

?

Their scum partners would explain what clownpiece was talking about.

I can count on one hand the number of games here where people actually use the scum chat enough for this to have happened

I am ~fine~ with Kaguya's iso.

Their progression on Tenshi feels in line with my own, although their vote and unvote both come after other people either started pushing there or started unvoting, so its worth a little less then general.

Although

I like Ichirins posts

Kaguya, what about Ichirin's posts at this point did you like?

I thought sie mixed up Clownpieces name randomization talk with the "Do you want a full random name vs randomized from your choices" from pregame but on reread that's not actually what happened

Liking Koishi on page 9 and Aya's roleplaying has already pocketed me

Koishi's probably town

I have reason to believe Dai is town

VOTE: Kagerou

And hey, here's Kaguya, so it CLEARLY did something.

I contracted touchgrassitis, Eirin says it's permanent

also about the Marisa / Kaguya hood, how substantially have you talked in it Kaguya?

Marisa/Sanae hood, not Marisa/Kaguya

I feel like most of the chaos this game can be attributed to people mixing up names

Those posts have the stylistic tell if you're looking for it and given she's correctly calling out my max scumrange I'm forced to conclude she knows who I am

[Yuuka Kazami]

Where’s she calling out your max scum range?
They said you were good scum but I don’t remember them saying you had a maximum scum range you exceeded it, I just remember that *you* said that.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like this isn't working for me at least, I need to talk to the other two to get a baseline

Yuuka: new baseline. I think like 65+%ish of my townread on you comes from just existing more compared to Reisen/Kagerou. New Reisen I want to kill more than before but there's a level of OMGUS there that I'm gonna need to sort out

Why do you want to kill new Reisen more than old Reisen?

Are you gunna sort that out

I'm not interested in sorting out the why of these feelings beyond what they imply for Reisens alignment which is that whenever I've had this feeling of "OMGUS that I have to actively suppress to try and get a read" it's been scum

I recognise this isn't a very persuasive reason but it is a more reliable tell compared to the pushable stuff that actually lets me get people killed