open 914: the coalition (this is completed)

[Black]

HURT: all

I'll reset and dedicate some time to this tomorrow

[the worst]

in today's episode of my brain i feel overwhelmingly confident in tsawwassen being town

[Tsawwassen]

Out of the two not on my list. I feel more strongly about Aventurine. I could be wrong on Umlaut/experience. Umlaut's posting was fine but I'll admit I'm heavily driven by recency bias and exp's has not done anything to massage that aspect...

If the scum team is Aven/exp, they are on track to lose, yet aren't really doing anything to change course. So that does give me some pause. I think I'll start townreading the mentality of looking for a plausible coalition without including oneself in it more.

[the worst]

not saying i even feel particularly confident tbh just wondering how often the scumteam just fall over in this kind of gamestate

[Tsawwassen]

I'm excited to be outside the coalition bc it means u poor bastards are stuck w me until im threatening enough to nightkill

I've been wondering in the event that coalition fails, wouldn't scum choose the larger group of coalition and non-coalition for nk?

[the worst]

it's optimal to yeet through the coalition, since it's mechanically confirmed to contain 1+ scum

therefore scum are generally motivated to shoot through non-coalition players to keep the coalition POE as wide as possible

[the worst]

idrc that i'm explaining scum play theory, like there's a very very small number of players who wouldn't figure that out on their first time playing scum in this setup & sub-optimal NK strategies are only useful as wifom so meh

[tired person]

would you support Moros, Black, implosion, May, tired person?

i would, but i'm curious why you'd take me over tas

[the worst]

HEAL: tired person

4/4 one to goooo

[the worst]

I think my vote on May is partially because I think she's towny & keeps saying things I'm thinking and partially a kind of chaotic neutral subversive move

[the worst]

which is to say I'm perfect and don't intend to change.

[the worst]

the worst
implosion
Tsawwassen
tired person
May
Moros
Black
experience
Aventurine

[tired person]

i can't fathom having black so low in a readlist.

HEAL: tired person

4/4 one to goooo

why?

[the worst]

Black & Moros should probably swap places I'll re-evaluate later

[the worst]

i can't fathom having black so low in a readlist.

HEAL: tired person

4/4 one to goooo

why?

u need a coalition of 5 people to progress the game so 4 isn't enough

[tired person]

i meant why u healed me, dummy

[Moros]

would you support Moros, Black, implosion, May, tired person?

i would, but i'm curious why you'd take me over tas

i asked because i wanted to see what the worst would say. if you follow the trail of his reads up to that point, he townleans everyone except aventurine and experience, and seems to think they are the team. i thought that he and tsawwassen could be the team. so i wondered how he would respond to a coalition that excluded those four.

[Moros]

his reaction was to be hesitant on it and then shift his reads in response so that he's now much more confident in tsawwassen being town and i assume no longer wants to exclude them. maybe so that he isn't put in those sorts of awkward positions anymore.

[tired person]

interesting analysis, i assume that you think this implicates them as the team?

[Moros]

i think it's what the worst would likely do if that team were correct. i don't think it's the only possibility.

[Moros]

i still don't really scumread tsawwassen individually. maybe it's a mistake to try to guess the team already. experience/umlaut are more suspicious to me.

[May]

I feel like there's a bunch of pages I read and didn't really respond to because I was reading in limited time blocs D:

[May]

Hot take it is a mistake to try to guess the exact team at this point

[May]

It's weird because sometimes I think it's like
A useful thing that is useful in the sense that if the person genuinely believes it and I can try to follow their thought process I could get a better bead on someone as town and that's good

And a useless thing because it's a 2%er
Sometimes people hit 2%ers but a 25%er is so astronomically easier. So so much.

[May]

I think my cynicism results in me rarely having early full team tinfoils and thus not being able to be townread off that since I like to merc scum one at a time. But I get townread in so many other ways. I even understand some of them! That's a lie. I lie as scum.