Mini 699: Insane Asylum Mafia: Game Over

[forbiddanlight]

The group wakes up once more as the flourescent lights flash on. You look around to find only 4 of you left. Then you realize you forgot to count yourself. Could it be the bloodthirsty mafia have somehow been defeated? Alas, no, for there is a note in the middle of the floor...

U..U founded anuther wun uv us!? How...How dar u! wee...wee r teh mafier! wee wull not b stoped so easy! U wull nevar find meee!

Signed,
The Mafier

forbiddanlight calmly sets up the chalkboard and noose as if nothing were different, and you all get in your positions to hopefully find the last mafier...ah..mafia. She picks up the note, damper than yesterday with sweat and tears.

NO ONE HAS BEEN KILLED. It is Day 6, with 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

[forbiddanlight]

The Fortieth "Beginning of Day 6" Vote Count

"I already have what I want"

Kublai Khan (0)
Korlash (0)
Mirth (0)
Corvuus (0)


Not Voting (4): Korlash, Mirth, Kublai Khan, Corvuus

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline will be March 24th, 2009 at 12:00 PM EST

[Kublai Khan]

Hmm.. Some quick notes...

Mod-flavor suggests that Populartajo was a member of the mafia and not a death miller. Were we totally wrong about Crazy? (WTF?)

No kill last night suggests that either Korlash was targeted and had his NK reduced (probable), or Mirth really is a doc and successfully protected either Corvuus or myself (doubtful).

I'm very likely to vote Mirth, but before I do that I'm going to take a last look at the cops just to make sure their innocence is iron-clad.

[Corvuus]

.... and the insanity continues.

For my night action I targeted Mirth: I got innocent. In previous nights, I got innocents on Kor and SC/KK. Kor got a guilty on me and Mirth (insanity flipped) to innocent.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That out of the way, I will say the following. If you disagree with me or my interpretation, then let me know.

First of all, there has to be a godfather. (evidenced by investigations)

Second of all, they are probably a Serial Killer/not allied with Tajo/Crazy/Farside scum group. If Crazy was town, then Tajo/Farside/Other would have won instantly upon Crazy's 'mislynch'. Therefore, it points to a SK.

Third of all, we have 3 'power role' claims (2 cops and a doc) and a townie claim. If a role can be proved to be false, then, that would be good evidence for me to conclude that they are the SK/godfather.

- To this end, Mirth, Who did you protect, is there anything further you could say or do that could somehow help us believe your doc role.

- Kor, who did you investigate and could you tell me the paraphrase of the wording of you getting 'shot' at. (you mentioned that you knew your NK resistance was tested before, I need to know that *now*).

- if any of your have questions regarding me or my role, then let me know.

Fourth of all, assuming a normal SK (one that has the ability to kill every night) they choose not to, or if they did, they 'failed'. I will re-read (and suggest you all as well) but I recall that the first moment that this occurred in mod flavor was FL's post #78, where the NK was burnt to a crisp and a gunshot was heard. This lead me to my first initial discussion of the possibility of a SK or 'second killer' to which tajo said, "no, no lynch is the best way, no evidence for a 2nd NK". It was this flavor post that made me NOT claim 1-shot bulletproof cop outright but "NK resistance" since I didn't know of the existence of another cop yet and I assumed that the bullet 'firing' but no one dying from it may have been someone targeting me. I didn't receive any 'notice' that night but I assumed that it may have been the mod's way of letting me know that it had occurred. Kor, I really need to know if you can say and verify this.

-Fifth. It may be difficult but the only group who would 'know' there was a SK at some point would be the mafia scum group since the mafia may have targeted someone else but the SK targeted Corporate (burnt to a crisp). Tajo arguing for a no lynch at that point is most likely explained that he 'realized' that there is a SK and that a double kill (with a mafia not being killed by SK) would result in a scum win. There may be hints in what the scumgroup were doing in terms of who they thought (if they knew) that there was a SK.

- Sixth. Interaction/scum buddy linkage between players appears to be 'moot' now since we are all playing a solo hand. My conclusion that SC/KK and Mirth couldn't be godfather was based on comments and interaction *AND* that was assuming that they were all part of the same scum group. A solo godfather/serial killer is possible and my defense of both of you (KK, Mirth) doesn't apply.

--------------------------------------------

Ok, that is what I would like.

As for personal comments and such.

Kor: I need to know what it said when you were shot at and how you were notified etc. as much detail as possible but with paraphrasing so you don't risk being modkilled.

I believe you are a cop and I need to know what you think about me on this.


Corvuus

[Corvuus]

I started on my post before seeing yours KK.

I believe my point addresses it, but yes, I think Tajo was not a death miller but scum and there is 'another' one left. It could be mod mindgame or whatever else, but I don't consider it that likely at this point.

If you think it is a godfather allied with Farside/Crazy and that Tajo 'is' a death miller and he flipped 'mafia goon' upon his lynch due to that, then we can talk about it.

I think it is more likely that he was really a goon, and that previous nights and comments by the scum group show that there may be a SK.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On a sidenote: I don't understand your comment and it does raise my suspicions of you.

You state: "no night kill... etc. etc. suggests that Kor was targeted and had his NK resistance reduced" but this doesn't make sense since Kor was already targeted and already had his NK resistance reduced and he has told us so. (kor please confirm).

Corvuus

[Korlash]

1) I targeted Forbiddan and found her to be INNOCENT! DEATH TO THE MAFIA ALIGNED MOD!

2)

- Kor, who did you investigate and could you tell me the paraphrase of the wording of you getting 'shot' at. (you mentioned that you knew your NK resistance was tested before, I need to know that *now*).

Under two conditions. 1, you have to say first whether you "lost" it last night or not, I'm not handing you a possible 'out'. and 2, if you did lose yours last night you have give give half of it first seeing as how I gave parts of it yesterday.

I believe you are a cop and I need to know what you think about me on this.

Well on the immunity subject it's up there. As far as cop or scum I think if you were scum you would have killed KK or Mirth. But scum do weird things all the time, hence the being careful with giving you free information.

I believe my point addresses it, but yes, I think Tajo was not a death miller but scum and there is 'another' one left. It could be mod mindgame or whatever else, but I don't consider it that likely at this point.

Well then you have to explain why Crazy flipped Vanilla town when if he was town and telling the truth should have flipped mafia goon. Because of this we still have to conclude Crazy was scum.

I think it is more likely that he was really a goon, and that previous nights and comments by the scum group show that there may be a SK.

it can't be a traditional SK then. 5 nights with a total of 3 people killed? There is no way that would have happened AND the two of us keep our immunities as long as we(I?) did. Because there was no secondary killing I can't assume there's an SK. And there's no other third party role that seems applicable here. Leads me to believe Pop's claim and keep the scum at Farside/Crazy.

You state: "no night kill... etc. etc. suggests that Kor was targeted and had his NK resistance reduced" but this doesn't make sense since Kor was already targeted and already had his NK resistance reduced and he has told us so. (kor please confirm).

Confirm what? That KK is mixed up? Yeah, I'll confirm that. I'm thinking he mixed me and you up.

[Corvuus]

Kor: I do not know if I was targeted last night or not but I received no message from the mod or anything else that indicates that my NK resistance was reduced or affected.

The possible explanations of Crazy is "easy".

1. Crazy lied about targeting farside and really targeted someone else (scum lie). 2. Crazy was just a 'reverse death miller' that flips town upon his lynch. (scum)

I personally believe Crazy was a reverse death miller and that is how Tajo crafted his death miller ploy.

To say that Crazy was *not* scum (not you Kor but KK) and that scum is a 3 man team is simply not possible since the game would have ended.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kor: The reasoning behind my asking you and 'confirm' that you get a notice or not is because I never got one at any point in this game. When Corporate was burned and there was a 'bullet shot' heard, I thought that was my notice at the time. So I was surprised when you said that you got shot at yesterday and received a notice since that told me that I hadn't been shot at *OR* that Mirth, the claimed doc, protected me since she claimed that she did so that night.

I never received a message so I wanted to confirm whether or not if you really did. If you did, then I'm more likely to believe Mirth's doc claim; I believe your cop claim, and that leaves SC/KK as the one by PoE.

I want to hear who Mirth protected, although, it may not matter since scum may have just targeted no one at all in order to keep us at 4 instead of 3.

----

Kor: What do you think about the mod's flavor showing that Tajo *was* scum and not a death miller. I.e. 'you found a gun and this clearly shows, etc. Do you think the mod is messing with us and that tajo was a death miller?

Also, what do you think about Corporate's burning to death, gunshot heard, etc.


Corvuus

[Corvuus]

for why I think Tajo was scum and not just DM scum flip.

Tajo's paraphrase for his role initially:

Paraphrasing and using the first person.
I am a miller. I managed to have a gun but sadly it's broken. There could be cops but they will see me as mafia. And if I were to die, people will look at my things and due to my useless gun I will be remembered as mafia.

------------------------------------------

Forbiddan's death scene:

You all then decide to do a search of his things...and you find, among other murder paraphenelia...a GUN! He might have had an excuse for the other stuff...but there's not WAY a nice person would have a gun! Not in an insane asylum! You all go to bed finally feeling as if your luck is changing, with another successful lynch. But will that luck hold, you wonder, as the flourescent lights dim and go out...

and

U..U founded anuther wun uv us!? How...How dar u! wee...wee r teh mafier! wee wull not b stoped so easy! U wull nevar find meee!

---

Corv

[populartajo]

Tajo himself seems rather relieved for some reason as he's strung up, and as the noose snaps his neck, his expression, while happy, is one of peace

.

[Corvuus]

if you want an acknowledgement after the game is over and we "truly 100% know" then fine. I don't see that quote convincing me that you are a death miller when it comes from the same mod who writes in such a way that seems like you are a mafia flip. but hey, I will apologize at the end if it appeases your ghost.

C

[populartajo]

Fuck you.
Last post.

[Corvuus]

I don't know what you want from me tajo and at this point, I think we'll just have to wait until the end of the game.

------------------

setup speculation and balance alone make me think about your flip, but fine, whatever.

[Korlash]

Kor: I do not know if I was targeted last night or not but I received no message from the mod or anything else that indicates that my NK resistance was reduced or affected.

Then I will have to be blunt and ask why you even want to know the message I got? I received a message, if you did not then you still have immunity. Besides, if you didn't receive a message you have nothing to compare mine to so knowing it is almost entirely useless.

The possible explanations of Crazy is "easy".

1. Crazy lied about targeting farside and really targeted someone else (scum lie). 2. Crazy was just a 'reverse death miller' that flips town upon his lynch. (scum)

I personally believe Crazy was a reverse death miller and that is how Tajo crafted his death miller ploy.

To say that Crazy was *not* scum (not you Kor but KK) and that scum is a 3 man team is simply not possible since the game would have ended.

I think I get it now, you believe a tarjo/farside/Crazy team? And as the game is still going you think of an SK.

Well I'm a fan of Occam's Razor. A) We cops have received our results under the Innocent/guilty rule. An SK does not fit that pattern. Sk's are not Innocent, and we have received no other guilty results. This evidence points to a GF over a SK. B) There has been no evidence of a second kill all game. This points to one scum team, which also suggest we are looking for a GF not an SK. C) Both the idea that Pop faked his claim off of Crazy's and the idea of mirror roles are equal unexplainable. Both are possible, both can be explained with the evidence at hand. The idea of Crazy/Pop scum team explains their buddying up, but so does the idea of Pop's role being true and his reasons for defending Crazy to be exactly what he said.

Based on points A and B and overlooking C for it's unexplainable nature I have to conclude Occam's Razor to suggest a GF over a SK. However this being LYLOish I'm willing to look at both possibilities equally.

I never received a message so I wanted to confirm whether or not if you really did. If you did, then I'm more likely to believe Mirth's doc claim; I believe your cop claim, and that leaves SC/KK as the one by PoE.

I did receive a message telling me my NK immunity was gone.

Kor: What do you think about the mod's flavor showing that Tajo *was* scum and not a death miller. I.e. 'you found a gun and this clearly shows, etc. Do you think the mod is messing with us and that tajo was a death miller?

What was the mod's flavor for Crazy? The only thing I saw in there was Crazy had to give something up. That could suggest him as scum giving up what made him look like scum.

As far as Pop goes, compare his to Farside's lynch.

1) Farside grinned and laughed maniacally, Pop died with a look of peace.
2) We found only paraphernalia on Farside, but found that AND a Gun on Pop. If a gun is what makes one mafia, why didn't Farside have one?

If we honestly wanted to argue Flavor, I would say Pop's looked TOO obviously trying to make him look mafia for him to be mafia. It's like in Court, if a guy has been set up you find a mountain of evidence against him, where-as if a guy really did a crime you find probably 2-3 really good things.

Also, what do you think about Corporate's burning to death, gunshot heard, etc.

hmmm, well seeing as how the Mod tells us that gun shot was from outside I think it suggests there were some hunters outside that shot a deer, or a tree, maybe backed over a deer and a tree with a truck as well.

U..U founded anuther wun uv us!? How...How dar u! wee...wee r teh mafier! wee wull not b stoped so easy! U wull nevar find meee!

And? Forbiddan said a long time ago sometimes the mafia wakes up and takes credit for things they didn't do. Plus read it. It was obviously written by a mafia member, NOT a SK. It suggests One left, one MAFIA left... Which suggests GF yet again.

Fuck you.
Last post.

Rudest dead body I've ever seen... <.<

I don't know what you want from me tajo and at this point, I think we'll just have to wait until the end of the game.

Talking to a dead body hanging from the ceiling... I thought you were the "sane" one? XD

[Corvuus]

Kor: i never got a message but I wanted to hear what you would say about it simply because I thought I could tell whether or not you were lying about a message and its' contents. The importance of their being a message or not.... well... I need to hear from Mirth who she protected first.

I doubt she choose KK but either she choose to protect you (Kor) or maybe she flipped a coin again. I don't know.

--------

I guess I am nitpicking (hey, if mafia can claim SK's kills, then SK can claim mafia note, etc.) but my SK thoughts are because according to the wiki, SK's have a different killing method and we have NKs with 'bullets' and then NKs with burned body and 'explosion' (happened to both millers). but ... well... i suppose it doesn't really matter too much whether it is a godfather-SK or just a godfather.

.....

In the end, I guess it still all boils down to proving the claimed power roles and then picking.

Kor: do you think I am mafia?

Corv

[Mirth]

I protected Kor. No coin flipping involved here. I don't know what to think about a third party role (if third party, there must be some kind of weird dynamic at play, due to the low number of kills). Occam's Razor would probably point to one of Tajo/Crazy/Farside not being scum, and it would have to be Tajo or Crazy in that category. I guess I'll have to completely reread this.

[Mirth]

EBWOP: oh, I forgot to mention, I think one of the following happened last night:

a) my protect worked 47.5%
b) scum sent no kill 47.5%
c) we have a weird third party that might not be able to kill 5%

[Corvuus]

hmm.

i need to re-think/re-read.

Crazy *had* to be scum (assuming 3 man team) otherwise the game would have ended.

So if there is no 3rd party, then Tajo is telling the truth (DM) and Farside/Crazy were the scum team so far.

I need to consider more.
Corv

[Korlash]

I guess I am nitpicking (hey, if mafia can claim SK's kills, then SK can claim mafia note, etc.) but my SK thoughts are because according to the wiki, SK's have a different killing method and we have NKs with 'bullets' and then NKs with burned body and 'explosion' (happened to both millers). but ... well... i suppose it doesn't really matter too much whether it is a godfather-SK or just a godfather.

That is sometime true. However I have found in some games with only one scum team the mod will mix and match the night kill methods in order to keep the idea of an SK alive. I try to base my thoughts of possible SK's on facts like number of deaths instead of on circumstantial evidence like Night kill flavor.

I do notice that Forbiddan doesn't keep track of cause of death on the front page. That does imply to me she doesn't deem it valuable evidence. It is a little outguessing the mod, but what flavor speculation isn't right?

Kor: do you think I am mafia?

I hold the same feelings toward you that I did yesterday. I think you being mafia is a definitely possibility and it does seem to add up quiet nicely. But regardless of that you won't be lynched. So while I will gladly show the case against you at any time I will also politely remind you you will not be lynched and should not take the attacks personally.

I protected Kor. No coin flipping involved here. I don't know what to think about a third party role (if third party, there must be some kind of weird dynamic at play, due to the low number of kills). Occam's Razor would probably point to one of Tajo/Crazy/Farside not being scum, and it would have to be Tajo or Crazy in that category. I guess I'll have to completely reread this.

Which means Pop (if you continue with Occam's Razor) as Crazy being town requires him to have lied at some point and no town should be "expected" to lie like he did.

a) my protect worked 47.5%
b) scum sent no kill 47.5%
c) we have a weird third party that might not be able to kill 5%

If the chance of a third party no kill is that low I hardly see the benefit from worrying too much about it. I like covering all our odds but I never put too much into a 100:1 bet you know.

In my mind the best thing for scum Mirth or KK to do would have been to target Corv. I don't think KK would have targeted me last night So if he is scum I would say he choose to no kill. Mirth would probably have choose to no kill to help cover her doctor story. So the actual night action seems fairly untelling either way.

[Corvuus]

Still considering but:

Kor, I wouldn't allow your lynch either.

I kind of wished scum had targeted me since I thought Mirth (if really doc) would protect you over me, the attempt would be made on me and I'd get a message or something so then we could 'further confirm' each other so that it would be cops deciding this. I think scum most likely submitted no night kill at all.

Regardless of speculation, it seems quite unlikely that the setup would be balanced if one of the cops was lying. Godfather, millers, etc. stacked against town, possibility of slipping up if fakeclaim and then knowing 'what' to claim in existence of NK resistance, etc.

It would only make sense if both Kor and I were scum together, but that isn't a possibility so we have to be cops together.

At this point, I favor SC/KK being the godfather.

There are various reasons why, but it does amount to just being a feeling or a hunch. It has to be unanimous at this point, so I would like to hear anything from all of you.

Corv

[Mirth]

I would say KK based on POE but I'm going to have to reread again because I really didn't see anything actually significantly scummy about him in my individual reread. This game just makes my head hurt.

[Kublai Khan]

Under two conditions. 1, you have to say first whether you "lost" it last night or not, I'm not handing you a possible 'out'. and 2, if you did lose yours last night you have give give half of it first seeing as how I gave parts of it yesterday.

I went back and checked. Corvuus was the one who claimed NK-resistant cop first. You counter-claimed and asked for more info. Then Corvuus mentioned the bulletproof vest was his protection, which you also confirmed.

Tell us why Corvuus has the cough up info (AGAIN) for you to corfim (AGAIN).

To say that Crazy was *not* scum (not you Kor but KK) and that scum is a 3 man team is simply not possible since the game would have ended.

I'm not saying that. Im saying I don't think the other shoe has dropped yet. We got no Mafier note after Crazy's lynch and I really don't believe he was a lying townie. If you're asking me how we got from Point A (Crazy's lynch) to Point B (now), then I'm sorry, but I just don't know.

It's possible that the mafier can choose when to leave a note (doubtful), or Forbiddanlight is just adding flavor according to miller-reveal rules. Townie flavor for scum-miller, Mafier flavor for death miller (makes sense).

Forbiddan said a long time ago sometimes the mafia wakes up and takes credit for things they didn't do.

Citation needed.

The importance of their being a message or not.... well... I need to hear from Mirth who she protected first.

Probably should have had Mirth reveal that first. Just sayin'.

but my SK thoughts are because according to the wiki, SK's have a different killing method and we have NKs with 'bullets' and then NKs with burned body and 'explosion' (happened to both millers). but ... well... i suppose it doesn't really matter too much whether it is a godfather-SK or just a godfather.

Pretty sure that Forbiddanlight said that she didn't like to leave flavor clues regarding deaths. But the comment was vague like any good mod comment should be.

I would say KK based on POE

The POE is based on the assumption that all your information is correct. I'm starting to really doubt Korlash's cop claim. He confirmed Corvuus' cop info, then looked to re-confirm Corvuus' NK-resistence loss. He never gave a good explanation why Penta didn't go after LlamaFluff. And he argued about the existence of cops (plural) based on populartajo's role claim.

I still harbor suspicions about Mirth's doc-claim, but Korlash's claim isn't as rock solid as he'd like us to believe.

[Korlash]

Tell us why Corvuus has the cough up info (AGAIN) for you to corfim (AGAIN).

Because I was the first one to mention the message about losing my NK immunity. I don't give a damn what he claimed first, on this particular subject He has to go first.

Citation needed.

Look it up yourself it has to deal with flavor.

I still harbor suspicions about Mirth's doc-claim, but Korlash's claim isn't as rock solid as he'd like us to believe.

When have I ever wanted anyone to believe my claim was rock solid?

[Mirth]

Mod: I'm going to be away until Sunday. Have to go on a trip. I might check this game if I have time, but this is not a definite, as my modded games are my first priority.

[forbiddanlight]

Mod: I'm going to be away until Sunday. Have to go on a trip. I might check this game if I have time, but this is not a definite, as my modded games are my first priority.

noted

[Corvuus]

The potential for people to lie is what makes it hard to 'conclude' anything 100% right now.

Example: If Mirth said she protected me and Kor didn't die, could we conclude that mafia sent in no kill?

Even Mirth protecting Kor and no one dying, doesn't really mean anything. Mirth could be real doc, or could be scum who sent in no kill.

If Kor is telling the truth about being targeted (and getting his NK resistance reduced) which I believe, then I would have received a message as well if i was targeted and I did not. Whether anyone thinks I am lying about that, I have no reason to, especially since if I did get targeted, I would have a message to compare myself with Kor.

I simply don't and while I could have tried to lie/wifom/mindgame my way into trying to get something or a response, it just isn't worth it when I haven't lied about my investigations/results/role, etc.

In the end, the issue comes down to setup balance in a way.

Assuming Tajo is right and he is Death Miller.

The game has mafia goon (farside), Crazy (reverse death miller), and a godfather.

Town has 2 millers, a death miller, a bunch of townies and then the question remains does it have 2 cops (with ? sanity and NK resistance) and a rusty doc.

I don't see this game making sense (or being able to pull off so many lies, actions, etc.) if it was only 1 power role.

Kor and I can't possibly be scum together. So one of us at 'least' has to be telling the truth, and then for us to claim NK resistance, etc. etc. it isn't very likely unless it was true. I didn't really breadcrumb (well, I did say i would get better over time and such regarding speech) while Penta (to me) did breadcrumb his questionable sanity of seeing everyone as millers (guilty investigation). Kor being targeted... I see no reason for him to lie and we did get no night kill that night. His response and reaction seem real and not fake. Kor may dislike (heck, probably several people do) because of my play style, thinking, etc. but I did get guilty on Farside and did explain my reasoning (which I think Kor hates me for).

Either of the cops being the godfather doesn't make. Motive, reasoning... heck, being able to fake claim without any hint and make everything 'line up' and be consistent... the odds of it simply isn't very good. And then balance wise, 1 cop (with or without a doc) against millers, godfather and death miller... doesn't make sense.

Well, I talk too much but in the end, we will need 3 out of 4 votes to lynch someone and assuming the person doesn't self-vote, both Kor and I have already stated that we aren't going to vote for each other so it is 'impossible' for the cops to be today's lynch.

Currently, i am re-reading Mirth. Balance and other reasons would point to Mirth being a doc but I don't know.

2 cops with NK resistance balanced versus miller/scum without a doc... I don't know.

There are other parts which bother me now that I remove Tajo from it. I.e. Assume Tajo is town/death miller, then alot of what he says I don't consider mindgame/wifom (but just as is) and then my opinion of SC and Mirth do change.

C