Large Normal 92 - Game Over! Scum Win!


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Post Post #525 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 11:36 am

Post by Zer0ph34r »

Mod-Edit Votecount 1-21

Mastin - 11
(Caboose, zu_Faul, Empking's Alt, orangepenguin, NanooktheWolf, zoraster, King, zwetschenwasser, ryan2754, Phoebus, AceMarksman)

OrangePenguin - 4
(cateraction, Maturin24, hewitt, Mastin, Azhrei)

Zwetschenwasser - 1
(zer0ph34r)

hewitt - 1
(RedCoyote)

NanooktheWolf - 1
(Amished)


Not Voting - 7
(Everyone Else)


With 27 alive, it takes 14 to lynch.





Nope. =]
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Post Post #526 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 11:38 am

Post by Caboose »

Zer0ph34r wrote:Nope. =]
Mastin is supposedly a lyncher.

Can you please vote for him now?
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Post Post #527 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 3:17 pm

Post by Azhrei »

Mastin is an almost confirmed lyncher, Caboose. (I only have the almost in there due to the possibility of a scum gambit the size of a giant)

@Whoever asked me why I wanted Mastin alive:

1. I think he's being honest.

2. We will have a nice little test of the setup, and the night actions will hopefully be somewhat revealing.

3. There is a chance he'll get recruited, and if this happens, I think we'll have a very useful pro-town player (in both role and name) helping us. Even if his posting habits hurt my eyes.
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Post Post #528 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 3:21 pm

Post by Phoebus »

i will be voting azhrei tomorrow.
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Post Post #529 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 4:22 pm

Post by Mastin »

BOLD STATEMENT:

If ANY of the people on my wagon claim ANY of these roles after I'm lynched, lynch them:

Vigilante,
Psychiatrist,
Mason.

For they'd just target me during the night, hence, wouldn't have pushed for my lynch.
Red wrote:And mafia are more anti-town than Mastin. And using our lynch for information rather than getting rid of a Lyncher who can't win today will give the town more to work with tomorrow. I can only say these things so many times.
This, I can also quote for truth.
A lot of what Red Coyote says, I can quote for truth.

The reasoning:
1: He's very doubtfully mafia,
2: He actually, well, you know, RAISES SOME VERY SOLID POINTS.
Zor wrote:I'm worried about him winning tomorrow or the next day if left alive.
Again, missing role:

Vig.

Any vig should shoot me n1. If I live, we either have no vig, the vig was redirected, or some crazy doctor was on me to prevent an anti-town player from dieing. (Don't know why they'd do that, but always possible.)
Even more so, though, I'm worried about him simply throwing town off in multiple ways by his mere existence.
1: You referred to the town in the third person. Implying you are not part of it. Scumslip?

2: How?

How on earth would me just being alive throw the town off?
By casting doubt for whoever I'm pushing a lynch for?

I've proven multiple times why that's a load of BS.
And how do we know who Mastin's target is to clear them? Without a mason, it's impossible. Even if Mastin tomorrow says, "whoops. you caught me. RC wasn't my target. Person Y who just died was my target, but now I REALLY can't win" we have to question the veracity of the statement.
Funny story, that. I've had it happen. Lied about my target, lived, and seen my real target die. I was left the hammer between two mafia and two pro-town players.

I chose the mafia. Town won, thanks to me.
(Mainly due to how lynchers still get 30 points when collaborating with the town. ;))

Too bad you can't link EM games from months ago...
But it's still a true story.

Red might've seen it happen as well, from time to time.

And, in simplest terms:

I claimed my target.
This won't change.
Why, when I've told the truth, would I change my claim to be a lie?

I wouldn't.
Lynch all liars, and all that good logic stuff.

(By the way, anyone who applies lynch all liars to their arguments, please do remember to apply the opposite as well--DON'T lynch the people WHO TELL THE TRUTH! Like flat-out claiming to be the lyncher. <_<)
Let me be clear though: the risk of outing masons less concerns me than the risk of Mastin claiming Mason and there being no other masons. Both are certainly negatives though which is why both are discussed.
Look, even if I wasn't masoned and claimed masoned, I'd still say Red was my target.

It'd have no outcome on the game itself.
Yet I wouldn't claim mason.

The risk of being outed as a fake, the risk of having to claim a partner and not being able to deliver (they'd deny it), the risk of being caught in a lie when I've been very honest, very open, would simply be too great.

So I wouldn't lie.

As I had done before, as I have been doing, as I will always do until I die this game, I'll continue to tell the truth.
And it worries me because I'm here to play the complete game. Not just live day to day.
Again, this does NOT seem like the wording of a pro-town player. It seems like something scum would say.
1.
If we lynch Mastin today
, tomorrow we can lynch without worrying about lyncher. Moreover, we can do so with additional information: the nightkills. If there are cop reports or whatever, all the better.
But this is not necessary.
1: The bolded and the underlined.

If it's not necessary to lynch me today, why do it, Zoraster, in the first place?

I'm calling inconsistency, right there.

2: We get MORE information from leaving me alive---
A: The alignment of the lynched,
B: The interaction of the lynched to others,
C: Other people's reactions to the lynched,
D: The night-killed players,
E: The reactions of the night-killed players to others,
F: The reactions of others to the night-killed players,
G: Testing the setup on me, who wasn't lynched day one.

If you lynch me day one, only D, E, and F remain.

---
Also,
If a cop got a guilty n1, wouldn't it be safe to assume that said guilty isn't my lyncher target?

That would mean the day two lynch would be safe as well, leaving--if I somehow survived n1--me to be shot at n2 and lynched d3 instead.
2. If we lynch Mastin tomorrow, we have to lynch today. We do so without knowledge of those night kills.
And then get knowledge OF the night-kills, to use day two/three. (Three, if I'm speedlynched day two, which also gives MORE bodies n2 as well, for even MORE information!)
Thus, we've lost the opportunity to lynch based on additional information.
No, that's MY lynch day ONE.
We GAIN a whole LOT of information by leaving me alive, and lose ABSOLUTELY NONE. Tell me, what do we lose information-wise if I'm left alive?
Who my target is?
My lynch wouldn't change the fact that I already told you the truth.
Dev's claim?
We know it's true, but Dev could be a mafia rolecop for all we know, so it doesn't clear Dev.
Who the scum are?
HECK F-ing NO--the bandwagon day one would be great information.
We lynch Mastin today, we miss out on the information we would have gained from the lynch that would have occurred otherwise. We lynch Mastin tomorrow, we miss out on the information THAT lynch would have given us.
But NOT lynching me d1 gives MORE information, which is something any pro-town player would want.
The fact he can't win today is irrelevant.
No, it is not.

If someone claims backup cop d1, the scum aren't going to nk them--they're going to kill the real cop, and THEN kill the backup cop.

You kill a player with an opposite alignment when their powers activate.
Not before.
In fact, it seems logical that we should want to eliminate Mastin BEFORE his power activates.
Logical my *censored*. Lynching an anti-town force when their power activates is good, for that means they don't get the chance to use it. Lynching them BEFORE then, though--while it prevents them from using it--it also eliminates the possibility of catching OTHER anti-town forces.
And yes, I agree mafia are more anti-town than Mastin.
So lynch them day one instead and leave me for tomorrow
![/i]
That's why I'd rather get rid of Mastin today and focus on those more anti-town elements tomorrow.
Besides the statistics, Zor,

What makes you want to lynch me, instead of focusing on the anti-town elements tomorrow?
Give me another potential setup, and I'll do the statistics for that as best I'm able. The results will probably be similar whether you have two scum teams, 2 vigils, etc.
Alright.
Do the math:

1 scum team, 7-9 members,
0-1 serial killers,
0-2 vigs.

1 scum team, 7-9 members,
0-1 serial killers,
0-2 vigs,
0-2 roleblockers,

1 scum team, 7-9 members,
0-1 serial killers,
0-2 vigs,
0-2 doctors,

1 scum team, 7-9 members,
0-1 serial killers,
0-2 vigs,
0-2 roleblockers,
0-2 doctors,

Yet take into account THREE semi-cleared players to remove from the pool of lynches. AND the chances of my target being shot.

Oh, there's more.

2 scum factions, 3-5 members each,
0-1 serial killers,
0-2 vigs,

2 scum factions, 3-5 members each,
0-1 serial killers,
0-2 vigs,
0-2 roleblockers,

2 scum factions, 3-5 members each,
0-1 serial killers,
0-2 vigs,
0-2 doctors,

2 scum factions, 3-5 members each,
0-1 serial killers,
0-2 vigs,
0-2 roleblockers,
0-2 doctors,

AGAIN, with three semi-cleared players removed from the lynch pool, and the chance of cross-fire, AND the chance of my target being night-killed.

That's a LOT of math by ITSELF.

Yet all are likely scenarios that we are in.
Phoe wrote:Pray, can someone tell me where this idea of masons recruiting people came up?
Because I'm mostly from epicmafia, where they're common, and I'm resting my hopes on it being the same here. (When, in truth, I find it to be less than a 40% chance.)
if you're all being hypothetical... that's pretty unproductive
Zor's stats are hypothetical. People don't seem to have a problem with that, do they?
Ace wrote:Mastin: While I know that this sucks and is unlucky for you, it's the most pro-town course of action.
Oh, and by the way...Did I mention how this REEKS of Ace wanting to appear to be pro-town, yet knowing he isn't?

Yea, well, I am now.
Zor wrote:In the immortal words of Goldfinger: I don't expect you defend, Mr. Mastin. I expect you to die.
Okay, I admit it:
I laughed. Nice quote.
More seriously, I don't understand why feeling fairly certain that RC is not your target and not knowing who your target is otherwise are inconsistent. Yes, it's hard to impossible to defend this charge, Mastin. I don't believe there's any way for you to do so or I probably would have pushed you to prove it in that way.
To not believe me when I've given lots of evidence brings in a load of fallacies, which translate to scum tells.
Burden of proficiency,
Confirmation bias...

Long list.




That's what I missed of page 20.
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Post Post #530 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 4:39 pm

Post by Mastin »

Zor wrote:You're really stretching here.
Not in my eyes, I'm not.
My point is that my goal is not to defeat scum. It's to win.
And in order to win, you have to lynch scum. To not just directly say this is the case is to scumslip, by saying (albeit indirectly) that your goal isn't to defeat scum.
Of course, in order to win, you have to defeat scum
"You have to win",
Not,
"I have to win".
Talking about a pro-town player, again, not from a first-person view.
AKA, a scum slip.
But that is not the ONLY criterion of winning in this setup.
I'd ignore a lyncher/jester claim and leave them alone if I thought they weren't scum.

As a pro-town player,
MY goal is to lynch scum.
Nothing else matters.
If a jester's scummy, so be it; let them die.
If a lyncher's scummy, good for us.
If the lyncher's target is scummy, meh, so be it.
If a mafioso is scummy, yay, we are that closer to winning!
The other is to avoid lynching the lyncher target.
1: This ignores the possibility of other third-party roles,
2: I've stated how I disagree with this several times.
You're the one who is insisting on doing dozens upon dozens of scenarios. No one has asked for this.
This wasn't the point. The point was that you were attacking me while I wasn't here. Meaning that players could just bandwagon me in that time without me knowing it, because I would be busily away, typing up a very pro-town comment.
To me, it feels like the reason you insist on doing all of the scenarios you can think of is because (1) it can help you delay being lynched
Of COURSE it delays me being lynched. If I do the math, then it'll show how it's best not to lynch me day one, which means I wouldn't be lynched day one. That's kinda the point of doing the math.
(2) it can prove that you're working hard
1: There is no need to prove that I'm working hard--the proof is already in the fact that well over six of our 22 pages belong to solely me.
2: There is nothing wrong with working hard.
perhaps garnering some sympathy support.
I don't need sympathy.

What I need is for people to
1: Stop tunneling,
2: Realize how the scum don't want three semi-confirmed players,
3: To scum hunt instead of bandwagoning.

If that can only be done via sympathy, sure, I'll try to garner some sympathy support. :P
But, seriously, it wouldn't. People should realize these things on their own, without my help. When they don't, they either
1: Are tunneling,
2: Are scum,
or
3: Need a shove in the right direction by MORE solid arguments from me.
Or, if I'm particularly cynical, perhaps so that you can win some sort of scummy award later on.
I'm rather the candidate for the Cassandra award, aren't I? :P
(This, if it wasn't obvious, wasn't truly serious. I would hope that my fight is NOT for a hopeless cause, the point of the Cassandra award.)
So, call yourself helpless if you like
If I'm not online, (or, worse, online yet doing another critical activity) then I can't defend myself. Hence, would be helpless.
but you've chosen this course of action.
And I have shown exactly why it was best, and why it should pay off, if anyone were actually LISTENING to everything I say.



Have to leave now; will be back later. I intend to do more of 21. (Some points on there I really need to elaborate on)
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Post Post #531 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 5:56 pm

Post by BigFatPauly »

can i join this game?
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Post Post #532 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 6:12 pm

Post by orangepenguin »

Recruiters and psychiatrists aren't that common. They happen, yes, but they are used hardly. I have played many games, yet have never played with a psychiatrist, and only 1 with mason recruiters (and 1 other, but that was a cult). Not sure why you are holding onto the small SMALL chance that you will be recruited. As for the vig, why CAN'T the vig lynch you? Why? They can lynch you, and their is still a possibility, if they use their powers, that they'll vig a mafia member (even though vigging a townie is higher, looking at the numbers). Your argument is that we an hunt for scum day 1 instead of lynching you - well, isn't that the vig's job? To hunt down scum, by making their own decisions, and selecting a person to vig and kill. The only downside is that there isn't no discussion and it's only one person's input, but the majority of games I've played, town often mislynch day 1, instead of catching scum. I think that, with the opportunity to get rid of confirmed anti-town person - Mastin - we should take it straight away. Mastin dies, is revealed (what we know already) that he is a lyncher. No new info, no. But so what? People will be night killed most likely, and we'll get that info. But we'll be one step ahead, with a lyncher gone, and day 2, we won't have to worry about all that, and can focus primarily on finding and lynching mafia. With a lyncher here -- a confirmed lyncher, that takes away our focus, and keeps us from winning. We might not even have a vig. There is even a bigger chance we don't have a psychiatrist or a recruiter. I do not believe we have either of those conversion roles. I don't think Mastin thinks that we do either. He is trying to make it one more day, one trick at a time. He knows we're better off getting rid of him now.
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Post Post #533 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 6:12 pm

Post by orangepenguin »

BigFatPauly wrote:can i join this game?
Go to the queue. Or PM the mod and ask if you can replace someone.

You might wanna try a newbie game first.
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Post Post #534 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 6:33 pm

Post by ryan2754 »

Mastin wrote:
Ryan wrote:and would honestly like to get to the next day, with Mastin gone, so I (and presumably others) wouldn't have as many headaches. You can be suspicious of that all you want, but his constant and overly long posting quoting EVERYTHING is just really getting me annoyed.
Wanting me dead because of post length is no better than policy lynching a player who posts one-liners.

In fact, it's much, much worse.

You basically are admitting to wanting to lynch the person who's contributing the most, even if the post length is annoying.

And things like that make you incredibly scummy.

Talk about a Strawman if I have ever seen one. The above statement that you quoted of mine is no way involved with the heart of my argument for changing my vote to you.

Ummm, Mastin, if you actually read my post where I actually vote you (Post 461), I said this for my vote:
Zoraster makes some decent points, and the probabilities don't lie. As much as I would like to lynch a lurker, and a non-content poster(zerophear), doesn't look like anyone else is in accordance.
I also like Amished's 457, as Nanook's post definitely looks like he has inside information.
As much as I hate to do this:
Unvote, Vote Mastin

Your goal is anti-town. As much as you say you want to help, the probabilities don't lie, and getting your lynchee lynched is your primary objective.
Also, I do agree that no matter what, you would tomorrow say you got recruited, whether you did or not. This would be an anti-town move, and well, you are anti-town in role, and would still try and get your lynchee lynched (assuming that you were lying about it, which I think you may be)

Oh, and Zero is clearly not watching this game. Good God...:rolls eyes:


V/LA until Monday Night

Going to the Indy 500!
Show
Town: 3-4*
Scum: 2-1
SK: 0-1
Unlynched.
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Post Post #535 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 7:17 pm

Post by Mastin »

(Note: Remember how I said there are two types of lynchers? One doesn't know the role of who they need to lynch, but know the person, the other knows the role, but not the person who has it. The second I referred to as the second lyncher type--uncreative, I know. For this entire post, consider this type to be, effectively, an anti-lyncher)

THEORY:

It hit me.
The possibility at first seemed remote...

But then it began to make sense.

Zoraster, talking about the town as if
he wasn't a member.

Playing for
second place
.
Tunneling on me, the claimed
lyncher
.

Remember when I discussed earlier about the concept of the Anti-lyncher?
A person, whose soul win condition, is to get the lyncher lynched?

I thought if we had one, it would be Red Coyote...
But Zoraster's play--while the same play I'd expect from scum--fits into this pattern...perfectly.

Discuss this, please, while I go type up a post on page 21 + 22.
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Post Post #536 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 7:27 pm

Post by orangepenguin »

I think you just took Zoraster out of context, like when he says 'you'. Kind of a big stretch.

The anti-lyncher is even a bigger stretch and is yet another attempt for you to last another day. If we lynch you tomorrow, and if there was such a thing, Zoraster would still win. So do we..not kill you? Or are you just assuming we have a vig and a vig will kill you?
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Post Post #537 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 7:35 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Point 0: Damn power outages, eating my posts. Especially when I've been working on them for a day or so.

Point 1: I have some comments about the reasons being brought up for lynching Mastin, but I need Mastin and/or Devestation to answer the following question:

Mastin/Devestation, what happens to Mastin should he manage to get his lynchee lynched?

Point 2: Some people seem to have been arguing that we won't get any information at all from a Mastin lynch. This is incorrect; we will certainly get information. We just won't get any information that we don't already know (except for the identities of the last 2-3 Mastin voters and the death flips (and even there mainly Vig kill if there is one)).

The important information we would gain from a Mastin lynch is the composition of the lynch wagon, and we have most of that already (11 out of 14 votes).

See, the important thing to keep in mind here is that Mastin is a revealed neutral (I'm loathe to use anti-town per se, for reasons that I will explain further when my question above is answered; suffice it to say for now that I consider Lynchers, Jesters, and Survivors largely neutral instead of scum). That gives any Mafioso who wants to get credit for scumhunting without pushing a Mafioso to a lynch a major opportunity... and it also puts the one Standard Tell everyone seems to forget about into play.

Remember Selective Scumhunting? It works best in games where there are two or more scum factions revealed (even if it's just Mafia + SK), but it works well enough here too. I'd expect the Mastin wagon to be a Mafia bonanza; in particular, I'm looking for players who weren't doing much scumhunting if any before the Mastin claim, especially if they were posting about other things (IIoA) and then quickly jumped onto the Mastin wagon claiming that we can't let a Lyncher who can't win until Day 2 live (Selective Scumhunting).

Of note:

Phoebus: Behavior before Mastin's claim isn't applicable due to limited access, but his argument for lynching Mastin at the end of page 21 is crap and needs a dedicated post to pick apart (coming soon)

zoraster: Fits the IIoA->Selective Scumhunting model quite well, and needs a dedicated post for a PBPA (coming soon).

Nanook: V/LA for most of the important part of the game - I'd like to see a little more out of him before I make a firm read.

Zu_Faul: I want to see his reaction to Mastin once he returns from V/LA - his posts before his current absence look scummy, but I want to see more out of him before I'm sure.

orangepenguin: I need to run a dedicated PBPA on him as well, which again needs its own post.

King: A partial PBPA will suffice, so I'll put it here. I should have spotted him earlier, tbh. He posted almost nothing before Mastin's claim, then explained this as follows:
King wrote:I'm active and following. I don't feel the need to join in on the convo when I have nothing useful or constructive to add. I'll add a vote when someone makes a convincing enough argument.
Gentlemen, is it just me, or did he outright claim he was active lurking and refusing to scumhunt?

"I'm active and following. I don't feel the need to join in" - so, he's keeping up... and not posting, so nobody can get a read on his alignment.

"I'll add a vote when someone makes a convincing enough argument" - so, 1) you're not going to scumhunt (because he's not going to look and make that convincing argument himself) and 2) he's going to bandwagon while barning the original voter's logic (because when somebody else makes a vote he likes he'll hop on, and "convincing enough argument" again implies that he'll be voting because of someone else's argument instead of making his own)).
King wrote:zu-Faul, if by 'contribute' you mean posting random, inane comments accusing people I don't know to be guilty, then, yes, I won't be contributing. I'm watching the game closely to see how people act. When I notice something that's off, I'll post it. Until then all I'll have to say is, "I don't know who to trust." If you'd like me to do that until I know who to trust, I will. In any other case, I'll be watching.
Well, then at least you could *comment* that nobody seems off...
King wrote:Ace, if you didn't catch my last post, I haven't been posting because I have nothing to add. I will continue to not post until I have something to add. If I'm considered a lurker due to my play style, so be it.

I didn't post an explanation because I thought my reasoning would be obvious. He has an anti-town role. At least, that's what he claimed before. I am now keeping my vote there because I just don't believe him.

Thanks to OP for pointing out my mistake. Just to make sure it goes through-

Vote:Mastin
Hops onto Mastin for the claim...
King wrote:Just a thought, but what if Mastin is a Woodcutter/Hunter/Kamikaze/Rambo/Whatever you'd like to call it?
Looks like fearmongering to me. There is NO REASON to think that Mastin is a Bomb, given Devestation's claim. None at all.
King wrote:What if they are both Scum?

My theory: Mastin and Devastation are Scum. They come up with this plan to kill our Vig. Devastation falsely outs Mastin as a Lyncher and Mastin convinces everyone to let the Vig kill him instead of the lynchmob. The Scum lose a player but the town loses a weapon.
Why aren't they both lying scum? Because that would be stupid.

Mastin will die tomorrow at the latest. When he dies, if he's not Lyncher, we will KNOW that Devestation is scum and immediately lynch him. Even a 1-for-2 (Vigilante for Mastin and Devestation) is a HORRIBLE deal for scum.

Mastin, given his admission that he is lyncher, is a Lyncher. Devestation definitely had a day rolecop, and is probably town given how strong such an ability would be in the hands of a Mafioso. Anything else is just stupid, and Mastin at least doesn't strike me as stupid.

This "he could be Bomb!" STRONGLY reads as Mafia fearmongering to me (to drive through a lynch on a non-Mafioso).
King wrote:However, if we lynch you now:

1. We get rid of anti-town role (regardless of whether or not that player is an 'Honorary-Townie)
2. If you are telling the truth, clear Dev and Red
3. If you are lying, more or less confirm that Dev (and probably Red) is (/are) villainous.
The second and third argument would be a good reason to kill Mastin immediately except that they both have holes - the only way to confirm Mastin's target is to lynch the lynchee, since Mastin could be lying about that (unless Devestation confirmed his lynchee somewhere and I missed it), and only Devestation's ability is 100% confirmed after a Lyncher flip. (Also, it's largely irrelevant; we probably would need to kill Mastin tomorrow - either with the lynch or with a Devestation dayvig, assuming that I'm reading his JoaT ability softclaim correctly - if he's not killed tonight)

I've already explained why it makes no sense that Devestation would lie about this, so possibility 3 is right out.
King wrote:I agree with Zor and we also like to point out that if we do not lynch someone who is known to be anti-town (Mastin), then our chances of lynching a townie goes up significantly.

In other words:
We lynch Mastin, we keep all our townies.
We don't lynch Mastin, we probably lose a townie.

This is the only thing that matters.
This is craplogic (in fact, it's the same craplogic that newbs use in newbie games to try to push through nolynches - you're trying to bring it up in a Large Normal why, exactly?). Town only needs to keep enough of itself alive for long enough to kill off every scumbag - ideally, we lynch scum every day, but we can afford a few mistakes as long as the scum die before we do. (Note: Jester/Lyncher/Survivor don't fit as scum for this unless specifically stated otherwise by win conditions.)

The fundamental goal of the town is not to keep townies alive (unless they're confirmed, and any player we lynch will not be confirmed); rather, it's to eliminate all unconfirmed players before all confirmed players die, and failing that to use logic/intuition to figure out which unconfirmed players are scum and kill them.
King wrote:
RedCoyote wrote:
King 438 wrote:In other words:
We lynch Mastin, we keep all our townies.
We don't lynch Mastin, we probably lose a townie.
If we lynch Mastin D1, we'll still probably lynch a townie tomorrow. What's your point?
Of course. That's the risk we typically MUST take. But we DON'T have to take that risk today because we have someone who definitely is NOT A TOWNIE. How was that not obvious?
But he's all-but-confirmed Neutral and it's all-but-confirmed that he can't win today, which makes him an astoundingly poor choice of lynch for today.

Hell, given one general view about game balance here (I'll explain after I get an answer to that question above), if somebody not named Mastin gives us confirmation that Mastin's lynchee is RedCoyote, I'll treat him exactly like a confirmed Survivor: lynch him one day before LyLo, not before, and only then because it's in his best interest to vote the lynchee at LyLo (if the lynchee is alive) or because lynchers tend to convert to Survivors when their lynchee dies (I've explained elsewhere why you lynch survivors at L-1, and I can quote those arguments here if necessary).
King wrote:
Mastin wrote:
King wrote:if we do not lynch someone who is known to be anti-town (Mastin), then our chances of lynching a townie goes up significantly.
Actually, it's the opposite.
Lynch someone who's anti-town, and the chances of lynching someone who's pro-town increase.
Lynch someone who's pro-town, and the chances of lynching anti-town increase.

Take, for example, a newbie game, nine players.

A mafia is lynched day one.

That means that, of the seven alive day two, one is scum, and the other six pro-town.

A lynch of a pro-town player, however, leaves seven alive, two scum, and five pro-town.

So, yea, don't use this logic. It's flawed.
First of 2 more points I thought I had laid out clearly but now must clear up. That statement was meant to be taken in the context of a single day.

For example:

A nine player game where there are three scum and six town

Normally, the chances of lynching scum, more or less randomly, which is usually the case, one day one is 33.3% (3 out of 9).

A scum is outed day one (while not technically 'scum', this one represents Mastin). They decide not to lynch the scum they found on Day 1 (it's weird, but it's the same argument currently going on in this game) and instead try to lynch a different scum more or less randomly. They now have a 25% chance in lynching a scum on day one (2 out of 8, discounting the scum they found and, for whatever reason are not lynching).... 25%

33.3%>25%

The way you are putting it sounds like you are advocating lynching pro-towners so the chance of lynching anti-towners goes up, which you cannot possibly be advocating. What you are saying is mathematically true when taken over multiple days, but that doesn't matter because it is irrelevant to the game of mafia.
The flaw with this argument is that Mastin is functionally NEUTRAL, not scum.

Let's take your scenario with some modifications:

Assume 6 town, 1 Neutral Survivor, and 2 Scum.

Ordinarily, the town's chances of lynching scum on Day 1 are 2/9 (22.22...%).

If the Survivor is outed on Day 1 and the town lynches a player other than the survivor, the town's chances of lynching scum become 2/8 (25%)... an increase of 3%.

If you take one key assumption (which I'm testing at the beginning of this post and will reveal once that question up there is answered), the only reason why Lyncher should not be treated as a Survivor is because there's a chance that you'll lose a confirmed town and confirmed Neutral (-2 confirmed nonscum for no gain is a bad deal for town), and that's not applicable today because it's confirmed that Mastin can't win today.
King wrote:
RedCoyote wrote:
King 473 wrote:Of course. That's the risk we typically MUST take. But we DON'T have to take that risk today because we have someone who definitely is NOT A TOWNIE. How was that not obvious?
Do you typically try to avoid as many risks as possible?
Yes, in mafia, as in life, you avoid UNNECESSARY risks. This is something that I thought was also obvious. I'm ust fine with taking risks if we have to, but we don't right now.
Uh, I'd rather take a SMALL chance at the wanted outcome (scum lynch, as opposed to Neutral lynch) than a 0% chance at the same.

Vote: King
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Post Post #538 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 7:45 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Hmm. Thinking about Selective Scumhunting just brought something to mind:
orangepenguin wrote:Mastin, way to tunnel this early on. I wouldn't be surprised if the real scum are sitting back, enjoying that you're taking all the heat for them. I am not sure about your wagon being scum driven. I mean,
I doubt your partners are on you, but most of them are scum?
I really doubt it. I mean, there could be 1 or 2, but I know that I am not scum. You shouldn't be so close minded this early on. You're not going to get anywhere, if you already think you've won when half the players haven't posted yet.
I commented earlier that something about the logic on this post - specifically, the underlined sentence in the post - wasn't making sense.

I just realized how it *would* make sense - if there are 2 Mafias in the game, and orangepenguin was saying that he thought that the other members of Mastin's Mafia weren't on his wagon and that only a few of the *other* Mafia was on his wagon.

But then, how would orangepenguin know that there are two Mafias (if there are even two Mafias) unless he was in one of those Mafias himself? Maybe a really odd power role, but I doubt it...

It's not damning without evidence that there are two Mafias in the setup... but it's quite damning indeed should that evidence appear later.
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Post Post #539 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 7:48 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Mastin wrote:(Note: Remember how I said there are two types of lynchers? One doesn't know the role of who they need to lynch, but know the person, the other knows the role, but not the person who has it. The second I referred to as the second lyncher type--uncreative, I know. For this entire post, consider this type to be, effectively, an anti-lyncher)

THEORY:

It hit me.
The possibility at first seemed remote...

But then it began to make sense.

Zoraster, talking about the town as if
he wasn't a member.

Playing for
second place
.
Tunneling on me, the claimed
lyncher
.

Remember when I discussed earlier about the concept of the Anti-lyncher?
A person, whose soul win condition, is to get the lyncher lynched?

I thought if we had one, it would be Red Coyote...
But Zoraster's play--while the same play I'd expect from scum--fits into this pattern...perfectly.

Discuss this, please, while I go type up a post on page 21 + 22.
Why bother supposing an anti-lyncher. Zoraster's play makes perfectly good sense if zoraster is scum trying to push through a lynch on a confirmed Neutral (who is thus a) relatively safe to push to lynch and b) not a member of his faction). See: Selective Scumhunting.
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Post Post #540 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 8:29 pm

Post by Mastin »

Ryan wrote:Too many long posts since I last posted.
That isn't my fault. If I didn't have to defend myself, then I wouldn't make long posts. It's as simple as that. Since I do, since I'm close to a lynch, since people are refusing to listen to many of my excellent points, many of Red's good points, listen to many of the people defending me,

I continue to make long posts, each with reasoning which defends me, and shall continue to do so as long as I'm under the threat of being lynched.
I have a major headache from this game
You can do one of two things, Ryan, to stop your headache:

1: You can ignore my posts and continue voting me for it, making yourself look INCREDIBLY scummy, not only for not reading my posts, but for not listening to my logic, and for lynching a semi-clear player. (Dev, Red, and I are all semi-clear. Dev by rolecop [but could be mafia rolecop], me by Dev [being a lyncher, though, it bumps me down to semi-clear], and Red [my target could be mafia, making him only semi-clear].)

OR

2: You can take my word for it when I've said that I've defended BETTER than well against my attackers, unvote me, and scum hunt by looking at other players. The pro-town thing to do when wishing to avoid a headache.

But preferably, you do option C:

Ignore the headache and read everything, the even MORE pro-town thing to do, and form conclusions from just that.
and would honestly like to get to the next day, with Mastin gone, so I (and presumably others) wouldn't have as many headaches.
And this is where the problem really lies:

Long posts produce far more information than shorter ones. They contain far more potential slips, far more information to analyze, far more information to give us who the scum are.

They're how the BEST cases are made (prove me wrong: Show me a single post that was short yet provided a STRONG case), in both offense and defense. I've never seen a good defense that was short, and good offense that is short...well, is spread over several posts, not one. For if it were in one, it'd stop being a SHORT defense, now, wouldn't it?

Long posts are how the game of mafia works when you're truly playing.

I've SEEN you post walls of your own, Ryan. I've SEEN you respond to them. I KNOW that you can do better than what you currently are doing.

This inconsistency in your posting style and preference is, well, concerning. AND

My death won't remove all the long posts.

Red Coyote,

Zoraster,

And I, AT THE LEAST, produce a great number of walls.

Do you want both of them dead as well?

Two semi-clears and one unknown due to post length?
You can be suspicious of that all you want
Saying "go ahead and be suspicious over the argument; it doesn't matter" doesn't mean people won't do that, Ryan. I am incredibly suspicious of you now for that attitude, and for saying, basically, "I'm not suspicious because I said that I know that I'm doing what you accuse me of", which is incredibly scummy.

Now, these are just my interpretations of your wording.

Care to provide an alternative explanation?
Azhrei, why keep Mastin alive?
Simple:

Az is perhaps one of the very few who is actually listening to me and realizes that I am correct,
That I am a pro-town player,
That today is not the day for me to die.
King wrote:A nine player game where there are three scum and six town
This is the worst-case scenario for the town, because for the cop to get a result, it must be night-start, placing the town in mylo (Mislynch-and-lose. It is EM terminology, for the most part, and is similar to lylo, lynch or lose) day one. Some setups has that work out well on Epicmafia (*coughspoliticsasusual*), but most do not.

So the given scenario itself would be extremely scum-sided, as if the scum is smart and counter-claims, the town is forced to no-lynch, to prevent a loss. The next night-kill gives the "cops" more reports, and another dead body, etc.
A scum is outed day one (while not technically 'scum', this one represents Mastin).
A person is either scum or they aren't.

There is no "technically" about it.

If your given scenario is two scum and one anti-town role, with a day-role-cop instead of a night-role-cop, THEN it makes sense, but it ALSO still fails to account for the fact that, day one, there would be TWO people who are confirmed "not scum" (the role cop, the anti-town role), making the chances 2/7.

In the case of a lyncher,
That becomes 2/6.

1/3.

33%.

Making the odds of lynching scum EQUAL to the chances before the "scum" was outed before.
The way you are putting it sounds like you are advocating lynching pro-towners so the chance of lynching anti-towners goes up, which you cannot possibly be advocating. What you are saying is mathematically true when taken over multiple days, but that doesn't matter because it is irrelevant to the game of mafia.
Good players think: Think about DAYS ahead. This is like, in a newbie game, the scum discussing what times they'll be online when in lylo, in their pre-game chat, and also discussing what possible roles are out there, what to claim, etc.

New/bad players think: Oh, it's bad/unnecessary for this day. We won't do it.


In other words,

THE POINT OF MAFIA IS TO LOOK AHEAD. See the possible consequences of your actions. See the possible outcomes, the possible advantages, the possible disadvantages of action X.

So, YES, I am advocating for thinking DAYS ahead because that's what any GOOD player SHOULD do.

Short-sightedness-->BAD.
Long-term thinking-->Key to victory.

Understand that, now?
Yes, in mafia, as in life, you avoid UNNECESSARY risks.
No risk, no reward.
Risk of hitting a pro-town player/outing an important role will lead to the reward of lynching scum.

Risk of me claiming was to hopefully end up with the reward of being a full-fledged member of the town.

Risks are a huge part of mafia.
Gambits employed,
Tactics used,
Lynches,
Bold moves,
etc.

No guts, no glory.

There are dozens of ways to say it:

Mafia is a game full of risks.
Empking wrote:Have you ever seen that role before?
On here?

Once or twice. I forget where.

On Epicmafia?

All the time.

Me being from epicmafia and being a role commonly on epicmafia, I did what I would do there on epicmafia:
Claim everything.

And hope the risk gives the reward of winning.

Here, the role is rare, and even in a setup like this, I gave the chances of a role capable of converting me to be less than 40%.

That 40% is enough for me to claim.

It's enough for me to try and push for the minuscule chance of not losing.

It's enough to give me hope.
Dev wrote:and yes mason recruiters exist, I've come across em before.
I'd appreciate a link, in my defense of the role existing in previous games. It would be REALLY appreciated, Devestation.
Zor wrote:Length and post number, as I assume you'd admit, is not a sign of being pro-town at all.
Uh, no, it shows devotion to the game.

Devotion-->Pro-town,
Lack of Devotion-->Anti-town.

By having the longest contentful posts, and the greatest post number, I'm certainly proving how I have been pro-town by that definition.

That's not even including all of the excellent points I've brought up,
My scum hunting,
My insight into the game,
And my theories.
I assume when you were scum, your posts were both lengthy and numerous.
I have no true completed game as scum, Zor.

No.
No, I do not have lengthy posts and numerous posts when scum.

If I did, I'd link it for comparison to my play this game.
It's that your post-count and post-number cannot be viewed as an indication of pro-townness.
When factoring in the content of the posts as being solid, I think you can.

It's just you don't want to.

For it'd be one more thing in my defense, one more think which would make me less likely to be lynched, something which you clearly oppose.
I have a suspicion that THIS is why you're insistent on doing the math. Not the "99%" that you think will prove you right (as I think it will only reinforce my point). But that you'll have poured a lot of effort into the game and you're hoping people will equate effort with pro- town.
Effort IS pro-town.

Lack of effort is anti-town. Perhaps not scummy, but certainly not beneficial to the town. People who self-vote, even self-hammer, show a lack of effort/devotion to the game.

Those who fight to the bitter end, who give their scumspects, explain why, give solid reasoning as to why they're not scum, are showing effort, are showing a true devotion to the game.

And that's something I find incredibly pro-town to do.
Don't get me wrong. I do believe you hope to become a town member.
And the BEST way to become a town member is to NOT lie and to
tell the truth
!
It's possible you hope to lead us to scum today as well.
Even if I didn't want scum dead, Zor, let me put it this way:
It'd either be a scum hunting lynch today, or a lynch of me. No other option exists, unless by some miracle we have another day cop with a guilty. So, yes, at least for today, you MUST admit, that I want scum dead more than any other player in this game.
But the first is merely a hope
Without hope, there is no reason to live at all.
not something that you've already decided is something you're going to count on.
WRONG!
I
am
counting on it already.
I wouldn't have claimed if I wasn't.

I am counting on a 40% chance, a gambit which I am praying will pay off. I've got nothing else, other than that 40%. Other than that small chance to live, I've got nothing.

So I put all my hopes into it.

My one hope of winning right now is in that 40%.

That 40% caused me to claim.

If that 40% is not true, then I'm dead.

It's that simple.
The second would be self-serving (though obviously beneficial to town).
I suppose this is true:
It serves my purposes, by letting me live at least until n1,
And gains me credit from the town that my motivation is legit, and that my intentions are pure.

Is there truly a problem you can see with that?
This is outright false.
No.

I won't claim masoned when I'm not.
1: Outing real masons-->BAD.
2: Being forced to claim my partner, when I have none-->DEATH SENTENCE.
3: Lying-->Leads to Lynch all Liars-->BAD.
4: Honesty-->Pro-town-->GOOD.

That's the shortest summary I can give of it, but I can elaborate on it later.

Again, no matter what, claiming mason when not is bad.
People would doubt it. So I'd have to claim a partner. If I failed to do so, I'd get lynched.
And the real masons might CC...

There's a bunch of problems with claiming masoned day two if I am, in fact, not masoned.

So don't you DARE think that I would do so.
You fake claim mason, and you increase your chances of survival and this is exactly why you'd do it.
No.

Look at this town.

For thirty seconds.

They doubt EVERYTHING I say.

They doubt my target.
They doubt my intentions.
They doubt I'm the lyncher.
They doubt the statistics.
They would definitely doubt my mason claim.
So I'd be forced to out a "mason partner", and that "mason partner" would disprove my story as false.

No,
Claiming masoned when I am not is suicidal.

Where claiming the truth (that I was not) leaves me with a slim chance of survival.
You say you have all the reason in the world to tell the truth, but that's false too. You have all the reason in the world to keep yourself alive.
I'm not a survivor.

My goal right now is to avoid being lynched day one.
If I do that, then I've fulfilled my usefulness. I've tested the setup, and might have a chance of winning. If I hit scum with the day one lynch, even better!

Simply put, sure, today, I want to stay alive.
Night one, I'd accept my death willingly.
your assertion you have proved your target is RC.
The evidence is there.

I've proven how
-I was in my cop meta and breadcrumbed similarly,
-Only three people would make me do that, Red amongst them,
-That I breadcrumbed my true role early on. This I have done since I joined. Look at 742, for example. One of my first posts of the game was "Their scumminess warrants not only questioning, but investigation", or something like that.
Ask Ace.

But it was a huge breadcrumb/cop slip, VERY early on.
-That I have no reason to lie, right now. We lynch all liars, so I don't lie, in the attempt to appear more pro-town.

...How much more do you need?

The evidence has been laid out several times.
I've shown how Red's my target, the best that I can.

If that's not enough, then nothing would be.
People may buy this or not, but it's not proof whatsoever.
I've given you the proof. You're just IGNORING it because you refuse to accept the prospect of three semi-clear players and want to cast doubt/lynch at least two of them
[/u]!
Claiming that we ALL should know is insulting.
Not when you're all experienced players, and simply researching a LITTLE into my previous plays should prove that I'm telling the truth.
Are you suggesting that if there is a vigil, from town's perspective we should have him shoot you?
Yes.
-It tests the setup,
-I am an anti-town role. Better to get rid of me n1 than to lynch me d2.

How many times must I say that?
But what you've failed to consider is that for those on the fence, they could be the deciding element.
Others have made this accusation of me; it's fair to return the favor:

Fence sitting-->scum tell. They need something to push for a lynch of someone not one of them, and statistics of another player give them just that.
or it could be scumminess
Quoted for truth.



The twist of irony:
Zoraster ran out of time with that post.
I, in responding to it, ran out of mine.

Be back soon/tomorrow. (One or the other)
I'm back! Well, kind-of.
No Access on Weekends
. :/
Advid reader/contributor to MD, as I'm far better in theory than I am in reality. :P

True to my word, I'm retiring. Totally not me. :P
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Post Post #541 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 8:40 pm

Post by zoraster »

BOLD STATEMENT:

If ANY of the people on my wagon claim ANY of these roles after I'm lynched, lynch them:

Vigilante,
Psychiatrist,
Mason.

For they'd just target me during the night, hence, wouldn't have pushed for my lynch.
Bold and unfortunate. You can see fairly clearly how Mastin seeks to equate anyone in favor of lynching him with scum. Of course, he can't say all 11 people currently voting are scum, but he can make statements such as this.

The only one of these I might agree with is the Psychiatrist IF AND ONLY IF he can cure Lynchers (which the wiki suggests is not their traditional role). The other two, vigils and Masons, have other purposes in the game than to deal with Mastin. As such, they have perfectly legitimate reasons for wanting to lynch now and use their powers for other things.

And for the vigil, what's to say their power isn't limited (one or two shots, for example)?
Quote:
Even more so, though, I'm worried about him simply throwing town off in multiple ways by his mere existence.
1: You referred to the town in the third person. Implying you are not part of it. Scumslip?

2: How?

How on earth would me just being alive throw the town off?
By casting doubt for whoever I'm pushing a lynch for?

I've proven multiple times why that's a load of BS.
First, be more precise with your language. You have PROVEN nothing. You may consider your explanation satisfactory and convincing, but you have not proved it. I don't mean to quibble with minor differences in language, but you continually use this term, and I think it's doing a disservice to how we understand each other.

Second, to answer your questions:
1. It is not a scumslip. I find it useful to discuss these types of hypotheticals in detached language. Besides, I find people who force the phrase "us" when referring to town to certain situations to be slightly scummy. It's not quite a natural thing to say in many circumstances to my ears, so it comes across as an overemphasis on one's town status.

2. The doubt is not who you are pushing for. The likely situation as I see it is that you'll casually influence the vote without voting yourself. As you know, your vote might be poison to a lynch. This concern (even more than the reality) is negative for town. Which brings me to the second way you negatively influence town. You can take good lynches by the town, vote for them, and kill them.
I claimed my target.
This won't change.
Why, when I've told the truth, would I change my claim to be a lie?
As I had done before, as I have been doing, as I will always do until I die this game, I'll continue to tell the truth.
For those of you paying attention, I ask you this: does his mere assertion he's telling the truth make it more likely? And does it sound to you like he's desperate to convince us of its truth, irrespective of whether it is true or not?
(By the way, anyone who applies lynch all liars to their arguments, please do remember to apply the opposite as well--DON'T lynch the people WHO TELL THE TRUTH! Like flat-out claiming to be the lyncher. <_<)
The converse is absolutely not true of Lynch All Liars, even if you subscribe to that policy. Besides, we don't know what the truth is here, though we do suspect you've told the truth about the lyncher part.
Quote:
1.
If we lynch Mastin today
, tomorrow we can lynch without worrying about lyncher. Moreover, we can do so with additional information: the nightkills. If there are cop reports or whatever, all the better.
But this is not necessary.
1: The bolded and the underlined.

If it's not necessary to lynch me today, why do it, Zoraster, in the first place?

I'm calling inconsistency, right there.
I don't know whether it's my own failure in trying to relay information or yours for accidentally (benefit of the doubt) misinterpreting a fairly clear statement.

The "but this is not necessary" clause refers to the "If there are cop reports or whatever, all the better."

Why you'd assume the FIRST If/then statement referred to the But statement rather than the immediately preceding statement is beyond me.

So to clarify: It is not necessary that there be cop reports.
2: We get MORE information from leaving me alive---
A: The alignment of the lynched,
B: The interaction of the lynched to others,
C: Other people's reactions to the lynched,
D: The night-killed players,
E: The reactions of the night-killed players to others,
F: The reactions of others to the night-killed players,
G: Testing the setup on me, who wasn't lynched day one.

If you lynch me day one, only D, E, and F remain.
A: It is not completely out of the question that you are not a Lyncher. While I do believe this to be the case as it would be a simple and satisfying solution to your conduct as well as Dev's claim, it is not impossible you are scum. Again, I find it very likely you will turn Lyncher upon lynch, but I just want to point out that it is not completely clear cut.

B: We do get the interaction of the lynched to others and others to the lynched. There's a great deal of interaction between you and me. But there's also a great deal of interaction in the interaction between you and others. Just because your flip isn't surprising (assuming it's Lyncher), doesn't mean there's nothing to analyze. In fact, given your prolific nature, we have more interaction between you and any other player.

G: I'm not excited about the prospect of testing the setup on you just because you have a lot to gain by obscuring the truth of the matter from us. See discussion of whether you'll fake claim mason.
Also,
If a cop got a guilty n1, wouldn't it be safe to assume that said guilty isn't my lyncher target?

That would mean the day two lynch would be safe as well, leaving--if I somehow survived n1--me to be shot at n2 and lynched d3 instead.
Pretty safe. Though miller, insane cop, framer are possibilities. Anyway, this would mean that the cop would have to claim. Even with a guilty, this is not necessarily the wisest move.

No, that's MY lynch day ONE.
We GAIN a whole LOT of information by leaving me alive, and lose ABSOLUTELY NONE. Tell me, what do we lose information-wise if I'm left alive?
Again, this argument is between lynching you day 1 and day 2. I understand these subtleties are confusing and not always adequately explained by me, but sometimes I believe things to be obvious (as they're what makes the explanation logically sound versus not), so I don't fully explicate.

If we lynch day 2, we are not lynching on that additional information. Even if there is somewhat more of it, we've wasted that information because we're not able to act on it.
No, it is not.

If someone claims backup cop d1, the scum aren't going to nk them--they're going to kill the real cop, and THEN kill the backup cop.
These are not analogous situations. You make it sound like scum know both roles in your hypothetical. We do not know who the scum are. Second, you kill the cop in this situation because that night's investigation will go unreported, and then you can kill the backup. Even if we got a mafia member, their team would still shoot. Of course, there could be an SK (or SKs), but the chances of hitting them are even lower than hitting mafia (or so I assume).
Quote:
In fact, it seems logical that we should want to eliminate Mastin BEFORE his power activates.
Logical my *censored*. Lynching an anti-town force when their power activates is good, for that means they don't get the chance to use it. Lynching them BEFORE then, though--while it prevents them from using it--it also eliminates the possibility of catching OTHER anti-town forces.
Well, first you've said it's a good idea to lynch you when your power activates tomorrow. Second, if that's true then we face a choice. Lynch you today and not lynch scum today or lynch you tomorrow and don't lynch scum tomorrow.

The choice to lynch you today is optimal for the reasons I've stated repeatedly.
Mastin's request for me to do math on hundreds of scenarios
I will not do this. I do not have the time or desire. And I don't think the town gains much from it either. I think it will simply alienate the more casual players more. However, I will do one (my comment was "give me ANOTHER potential setup, and I'll do the statistics..." It was not "give me all potential setups."). Lest you accuse me of handpicking the scenario, I will pick by random.org. I've assigned your scenario blocks 1-8. Then for each number of each, I've assigned the numbers you've listed.

The block chosen was:
2 scum factions, 3-5 members each,
0-1 serial killers,
0-2 vigs,

The numbers of each chosen were:
#1 scum faction: 4
#2 scum faction: 5
1 SK
2 Vigils

Scenario 1: Lynch Mastin D1

D1:
Probability of Lynching Scum D1: 0%
N1:
Probability of Vigil 1 hitting scum: 10/26: 38.5%
Probability of Vigil 2 hitting scum: 10/26: 38.5%
Probability of Scum faction #1 hitting scum: 6/26: 23.1%
Probability of Scum faction #2 hitting scum: 5/26: 19.2%
Probability of SK hitting scum: 9/26: 34.6%
D2:
Probability of Lynching scum if none die: 10/21: 47.6%

Probability of one scum getting lynched or killed: 91.9%
Probability of two scum getting lynched or killed: 83.1%

Scenario 2: Lynch Mastin D2
D1: Probability of Lynching Scum: 10/26: 38.5%
N1:
Probability of Vigil 1 hitting scum: 10/25: 40%
Probability of Vigil 2 hitting scum: 10/25: 40%
Probability of Scum faction #1 hitting scum: 6/25: 24%
Probability of Scum faction #2 hitting scum: 5/25: 20%
Probability of SK hitting scum: 9/25: 36%
D2:
Probability of Lynching Scum: 0%

Probability of one scum getting lynched or killed: 91.4%
Probability of two scum getting lynched or killed: 82.2%

Presumably the distance gets larger for getting three scum lynched or killed as the distance grew between 1 and 2 (from .5% to .9%), but this requires more time than I'm willing to put into it (I don't really know how to automate this type of thing).

Once again, the question can be asked whether this result is significant or not, but the fact remains that it is still, in a vacuum, more advantageous to lynch you on day 1 versus day 2.
Quote:
That's why I'd rather get rid of Mastin today and focus on those more anti-town elements tomorrow.
Besides the statistics, Zor,

What makes you want to lynch me, instead of focusing on the anti-town elements tomorrow?
Well, I think you've actually stated it though I think perhaps you meant to say "instead of focusing on the anti-town elements today."

I want to focus on scum hunting tomorrow. And I want to do so in the way that is most optimal for town. In my opinion, this will be done best without your influence.
To not believe me when I've given lots of evidence brings in a load of fallacies, which translate to scum tells.
Burden of proficiency,
Confirmation bias...
Explain yourself. I don't understand how burden of proficiency is at all implicated here.

Confirmation bias, on the other hand, works both ways.

As a pro-town player,
MY goal is to lynch scum.
Nothing else matters.
Then you and I have a funamental disagreement about how to play this game. I believe, though I could be wrong, that most share my conception of the game.
Of COURSE it delays me being lynched. If I do the math, then it'll show how it's best not to lynch me day one, which means I wouldn't be lynched day one. That's kinda the point of doing the math.
No, I don't mean the numbers themselves will delay it. I mean your having to spend countless hours working on statistics delays it if you call anyone who votes for you in that time scummy.
1: There is no need to prove that I'm working hard--the proof is already in the fact that well over six of our 22 pages belong to solely me.
2: There is nothing wrong with working hard.
No, there's nothing wrong with working hard. But it also doesn't prove you're pro-town.

----

In any case, I apologize to everyone. I don't mean for this to get out of hand like this.
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Post Post #542 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 8:43 pm

Post by orangepenguin »

Tarhalindur wrote:Hmm. Thinking about Selective Scumhunting just brought something to mind:
orangepenguin wrote:Mastin, way to tunnel this early on. I wouldn't be surprised if the real scum are sitting back, enjoying that you're taking all the heat for them. I am not sure about your wagon being scum driven. I mean,
I doubt your partners are on you, but most of them are scum?
I really doubt it. I mean, there could be 1 or 2, but I know that I am not scum. You shouldn't be so close minded this early on. You're not going to get anywhere, if you already think you've won when half the players haven't posted yet.
I commented earlier that something about the logic on this post - specifically, the underlined sentence in the post - wasn't making sense.

I just realized how it *would* make sense - if there are 2 Mafias in the game, and orangepenguin was saying that he thought that the other members of Mastin's Mafia weren't on his wagon and that only a few of the *other* Mafia was on his wagon.

But then, how would orangepenguin know that there are two Mafias (if there are even two Mafias) unless he was in one of those Mafias himself? Maybe a really odd power role, but I doubt it...

It's not damning without evidence that there are two Mafias in the setup... but it's quite damning indeed should that evidence appear later.
That was back when I thought Mastin was scum. In such a large set-up, I am just assuming there is more than one mafia. There has been 0 deaths yet, so I have no evidence or anything, but with 27 players, I figure there must be at least more than one scum faction. The last game I played with about 30 players had 2 factions, so I was only assuming. Before my post, Mastin was going on about his wagon being scum-driven. I thought Mastin was scum, and I was on the wagon, and I know I am not scum - I think at the time there was 7 people on his wagon. Taking me out of it, assuming that Mastin was scum at the time, with two different factions, I said kind of arrogantly at Mastin that I doubt his partners were on it, but that it was possible that one or two scum
could
be on it, because it would be possible.
I just realized how it *would* make sense - if there are 2 Mafias in the game, and orangepenguin was saying that he thought that the other members of Mastin's Mafia weren't on his wagon and that only a few of the *other* Mafia was on his wagon.
That is basically what I was implying. I thought I was more clearer than that, but reading the quote of me above, it is poorly worded. How would I know? Well, I don't know for sure. But do you honestly believe there is only one scum faction with 27 players?
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Post Post #543 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 9:02 pm

Post by zoraster »

By the way, I'm really worried that this game has ceased (if it ever was) to be fun for the other players involved. As such, I am now limiting any post I make to 250 of unquoted words (to compare, my last one was roughly 1500 words). I reserve the right to revoke this tomorrow, but for today, I'll limit myself.

I could blame Mastin for starting the wall of texts, but I'm complicit as well. Brevity is the soul of wit, and I can't help but feel we're saying much of the same thing to each other anyway.
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Post Post #544 (ISO) » Sat May 23, 2009 10:51 pm

Post by Empking's Alt »

Can someone post me a link to game where there's a mason recruiter who can turn scum town?
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Post Post #545 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 12:10 am

Post by Devestation »

I have actually run a themed game with TWO of them and let everyone argue about their existence and/or goals were, but it was a game in a secure forum for another game and therefore would be hard to show you.
I wrttoe htis sginautre wiht my elbwo.
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Post Post #546 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 12:26 am

Post by zwetschenwasser »

I must agree that this game is getting quite tedious and unenjoyable with the rampant wordiness and walls of text to read. As it stands Mastin is doing too good a job defending himself for me to want to lynch him.
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Post Post #547 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 5:12 am

Post by Caboose »

Mastin wrote:BOLD STATEMENT:

If ANY of the people on my wagon claim ANY of these roles after I'm lynched, lynch them:

Vigilante,
Why? If I were the vig, I wouldn't want to waste my NK on you.

Psychiatrist,
I thought psychiatrists only worked on SKs.

Mason
I'm assuming you mean "mason recruiter"? And if you do mean that, I don't think mason recruiters
make
people town.
Fail.
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Post Post #548 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 5:55 am

Post by Empking's Alt »

zwetschenwasser wrote:I must agree that this game is getting quite tedious and unenjoyable with the rampant wordiness and walls of text to read. As it stands Mastin is doing too good a job defending himself for me to want to lynch him.
Doesn't the whole claiming antitown thing affect your view point?
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Post Post #549 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 7:49 am

Post by zwetschenwasser »

I'd rather he be vigged if he's merely a neutral role.
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