Large Normal 92 - Game Over! Scum Win!


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Post Post #575 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 12:32 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Mod-Edit Votecount 1-23

Mastin - 12
(Caboose, zu_Faul, Empking's Alt, orangepenguin, NanooktheWolf, zoraster, King, zwetschenwasser, ryan2754, Phoebus, AceMarksman, StevieT92)

OrangePenguin - 5
(cateraction, Maturin24, hewitt, Mastin, Azhrei)

Zwetschenwasser - 1
(zer0ph34r)

hewitt - 1
(RedCoyote)

NanooktheWolf - 1
(Amished)


Not Voting - 6
(Everyone Else)


With 27 alive, it takes 14 to lynch.





Also, you're trying to lecture me (a user with a Moderator scummy to his name and who has broken apart at least two Large Normal setups in the past) about the differences between normal and theme games WHY, exactly?

Everything I've seen here suggests that Jebus is using rarely-seen normal roles. (Note: Recruiting Mason/Masonfier is borderline normal at best; even given the unsual roles that seem to be in the setup, I doubt such a role exists, much less that it can change Mastin's alignment).
User out of ambit.

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Post Post #576 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 12:42 pm

Post by zoraster »

Tarhalindur wrote:Also, you're trying to lecture me (a user with a Moderator scummy to his name and who has broken apart at least two Large Normal setups in the past) about the differences between normal and theme games WHY, exactly?

Everything I've seen here suggests that Jebus is using rarely-seen normal roles. (Note: Recruiting Mason/Masonfier is borderline normal at best; even given the unsual roles that seem to be in the setup, I doubt such a role exists, much less that it can change Mastin's alignment).
Why so touchy? This is a really bizarre response.

Anyway, that point was designed for others as much as for you (27 people playing, after all). And besides, the first paragraph's umbrage aside, the normal rules did cause a constructive second paragraph.
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Post Post #577 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 12:54 pm

Post by Jebus »

White Castle replaces over_9000. Sending role PM right now, he will confirm in the thread...
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Post Post #578 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 12:57 pm

Post by zoraster »

Welcome, and I wish you luck White Castle. You've got some reading ahead of you.
.
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Post Post #579 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 1:23 pm

Post by Amished »

I've come back, but I've saved this game to be my last as it contains the most required reading (glares at Mastin) and the most time dedication. I wanted to let you all know that I've returned, will try to read as much as I can right now, though I don't think I'll get to post tonight anymore. Look for me to put my efforts into a post probably tomorrow.
I'm going on a crusade to put more thought into my posts.

No, my name is not "Ed."
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Post Post #580 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 1:29 pm

Post by White Castle »

Hi everyone.

As Jebus said, I'm replacing over_9000.

Sorry, I'm a slow reader so it may take me a while to get up to speed.

Could someone be nice enough to highlight the significant happenings so far?

In case I've already voted,
unvote
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Post Post #581 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 1:37 pm

Post by Caboose »

Mastin is a lyncher and Dev claimed JOAT.
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Post Post #582 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 1:53 pm

Post by zoraster »

Beware of highlights, but right now the first nine pages or so are the usual beginning of game scum hunting with some discussion about whether walls of text are good things for town. That's not to say there isn't good stuff to get from here. It's just that if you want want "highlights" the game's first isn't really until Page 9.

Then on page 9, post 221 and more fully in page 10, post 233, Devastation claims that he is a Jack of All Trades who can use up to one of his abilities per stage (day 1, night 1, day 2, night 2, etc.). He claims he has used his rolecop ability to see what mastin is. He claims mastin is a lyncher who cannot get his target lynched until day 2.

Mastin at first denies this charge in Post 239 claiming that Dev is scum. He does this a few more times (Post 246 he votes for Dev).

Then perhaps the most significant post of the day: Post 260. Here, Mastin claims he is Lyncher. He says he does so because he has lost the game already, and therefore will try to be a "honorable townie."

At this point, a majority of posts are dedicated to how to deal with Mastin. However, I think it's also worth looking at the interaction between cateraction and OP at Post 294

Because I feel remiss not posting my vote on Mastin at Post 296. You should probably try to at least read some of the back and forth between Mastin, RedCoyote, and me (and at times OP as well), but I'd read to try and get an idea of what's being said rather than a detailed analysis. If you've got the time, though, feel free.

Anyway, that's what I'll give for highlights. Again, I don't want that to substitute for your own read on the game, but I hope I've picked a few crucial posts to stand out in your mind.
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Post Post #583 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 3:22 pm

Post by White Castle »

Thanks zoraster.

I will not rely solely on highlights, I'm only interested in what is useful to know before I start reading post 0.

I needed to check the wiki. The following is for my own reference later.

The Lyncher is a third-party role whose win condition is to get a specific townie (the Lynchee) lynched. If the Lynchee is lynched while the Lyncher is alive, the latter wins. If the Lyncher dies first, he loses. If the Lynchee is nightkilled, typically the Lyncher assumes the pro-Town win condition.

If a Lynchee is lynched before any other faction has won, the game generally continues to determine other winners, although in very small games, the game is generally over. If the game does continue, the lyncher exits the game with an independent victory.

The Jack-of-all-trades is a role with several night abilities, such as investigating, protecting, etc. Once he has used a type of ability, he won't be able to use it again.
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Post Post #584 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 3:46 pm

Post by Phoebus »

Zer0ph34r wrote:Caboose, no. I will not vote for someone unless I think they are scum. Which I don't think Mastin is.
Define scum.

By my definition, it means mafia.

Other roles are "anti town" as far as I'm concerned.

What is your definition? If it is the same as mine, you won't be voting for anyone other than mafia?

Are you agreed that Mastin is lyncher? He's said as much.
His win condition is not anti town?
Should he not play best to fulfill his condition?
Should you not do the same for yours?
Does this include allowing someone with an anti town win condition free reign?
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Post Post #585 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 4:09 pm

Post by AceMarksman »

Bah mastin, your posts are TOO DAMN LONG! Being away for two days is hell. Rereading now.
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Post Post #586 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 8:57 pm

Post by Empking's Alt »

White Castle wrote:Hi everyone.

As Jebus said, I'm replacing over_9000.

Sorry, I'm a slow reader so it may take me a while to get up to speed.

Could someone be nice enough to highlight the significant happenings so far?

In case I've already voted,
unvote
Are you planning on voting Mastin?
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Post Post #587 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 8:59 pm

Post by Mastin »

Phoe wrote:i'm voting him because his posts are long.
Yet, this has been part of my style since I started truly playing.
And voting someone based off of a reason that is NOT scum hunting is incredibly scummy itself, for you are voting (in an attempt to get a lynch) someone for reasons other than scum hunting, for reasons other than a pro-town player's win condition.
because his arguments are all over the place.
Name a game where this is not true.
I dare you to.

EVERYONE makes scattered arguments in EVERY game.

I can give COUNTLESS links to back this argument up.

Can you give one?
the only thing he's left to claim now is doctor or mafia.
Nah, I already claimed mafia, mafia lyncher-jester with Zoraster as my target--remember that?
Seriously, though, I claimed lyncher. That's what I am.
I claimed Red as my target. That's because he is.

I strongly believe those who absolutely refuse to believe my target claim, despite the evidence, want to set up a Red Coyote lynch in the future, for they don't want three semi-clears, and as long as I am around, I will prevent Red from being lynched.
his claim of us finding half the scum in all the accusations he's made - makes it easy to claim that when he's accusing half of the active players
The accusations are well-founded, and have solid reasoning behind them.

To ignore them is to ignore a player who has stated his pro-town intentions, whose post count and post length accurately reflects his devotion to the game.

Which is incredibly scummy to do.
his insistence on mason recruiters
They're pretty much my best hope of winning, if they exist--why wouldn't I hope they do?
his "guess" at being a N1 vig target
That's no guess.
If I were alive at the end of day 1, the best course of action would be to vig me during the night (or lynch me the next day, or dayvig me tomorrow, etc.).
this is conjecture at best.
It is me stating my opinions on the game freely.

For I am neither town nor scum, and have no need to fear the consequences.

So, I say what is on my head.

While I am pro-town in intention, I am anti-town in role. And that means that I will say whatever I wish to, in order to hopefully get the town to listen to me.
serves as rolefish bait at best
I AM A LYNCHER.
WHAT POSSIBLE MOTIVATION DO I HAVE TO ROLEFISH?!?
Seriously,
I ASK FOR HARD CLAIMS of this kind of thing. If there's a psychiatrist, if there's a mason recruiter, for them to SAVE ME.
Why would I do it the hard way?
Rolefish?

When I can just flat-out say it?
unnecessary fluff at worst.
No.

It serves as setup discussion.

Desperately needed info.

Setup discussion (especially gamebreaking kinds) is vital for the town, for it provides them with opinions on what they're up against:
What enemies do they face?

My speculation and theories on roles I view as valuable.
I've done it before, and I will do it again. For I view it as pro-town to do so.
people who have said discussion is good, it gives information... well, after killing Mastin and after the resolution of all night actions, if you can't get information from analysing his interaction after that (from over 5 pages of content solely from Mastin) - then it strikes me that your hypothesis is unfounded.
But you get MORE information if I am NOT lynched.
where/when do you draw the line between discussion and distraction?
Distraction--
Fluff (my early posts), spam.

I've done neither in recent times.

Anything else is discussion.
how much do you need to sift through - to get information?
Everything.

Anyone who ignores ANYTHING is overlooking something that might be a CRUCIAL piece of information.
So every player should look at EVERYTHING, just in case. The more information, the better.
And the way to get the most information is to read everything.
do you expect to crack the game on day 2?
No. I expect to crack the game on day
one
.
is this even a game?
This is a philosophical question--mafia's a way of life to some, yet is "just a game" to others.

If you meant this particular game...
Then, yes, nothing can make it NOT a game.
is it some boring scientific analysis?
Boring?
No.

Scientific?

Yes.

Psychology,
Facts,
Metagaming,
Scum tells,
Town tells,
Statistics,
etc.

All science, if looked at in the correct angle.
play it.
I am. This is how I play. (I haven't had this much fun since 735/742 when defending my cop claim. The thrill of defending oneself from attacks is the best part of the game, precisely why I do it so often.)
don't flog the fun out of it.
What defines "fun"?

There's no correct answer.

So I submit that this point is not truly valid, for there's no way to judge "fun", and if it is "flogged out".
i will be voting azhrei tomorrow.
Interesting. Az is one of the more pro-town players, here.

One who is actually listening to logic, and is seeing my points.
OP wrote:Recruiters and psychiatrists aren't that common.
I didn't know what a JOAT was until recently due to how rare it is, and lynchers aren't common, yet alone, a lyncher who can't win 'til day two.

Face it:
This setup has unusual roles.
Not sure why you are holding onto the small SMALL chance that you will be recruited.
Because I have nothing else to cling onto, OP.
I can't win as it is.
Unless the mod incorporated a hidden win condition where I can win with the town if both I, and my target (Red) are dead, this is all I have to cling to.

Would you rather just have me curl up into a ball and die?

You wish.

I fight until after the lynch.
I maintain 'til death my roleclaims.
I insist, even after being hammered, that my claim is true when I'm scum.

And as a lyncher, this would be no different. I'll fight until after I'm lynched, that my lynch was not the best course of action, and that Red Coyote is semi-clear via being my target, yet no player here is truly clear.
As for the vig, why CAN'T the vig lynch you?
Because any true vig would shoot an anti-town role any day and try to lynch scum, instead of lynch an anti-town role and try to shoot scum.

If they don't, then they're not playing well as a vig.

It would only cast doubt on their claim later on, for I am sure others believe the same as I do, and to go against it would be to put themselves in a very bad situation, possibly leading to their mislynch.
They can lynch you, and their is still a possibility, if they use their powers, that they'll vig a mafia member (even though vigging a townie is higher, looking at the numbers).
Vigging at night is always riskier than lynching during the day. A lynch has many supporters, of which, a maximum of one third would be scum, in most games.

A vig has one supporter, with the maximum of zero scum. But when they have to claim, they will have to answer for any and all actions they have taken.
Your argument is that we an hunt for scum day 1 instead of lynching you
And I stand by this as being the correct course of action.
well, isn't that the vig's job?
The vig's job is to shoot anti-town players. If they have one 100% guaranteed anti-town player, that's the shot they take.
To hunt down scum
This is the town's job.
I've played, town often mislynch day 1, instead of catching scum.
7-for-7 fallacy, anyone?

Seriously, it has happened before, but it doesn't mean it'll happen again.
I think that, with the opportunity to get rid of confirmed anti-town person - Mastin - we should take it straight away.
And I've, several times, stated why I think we should take the risk of lynching scum today, and leave me to the hounds of night one, but if I somehow survive to tomorrow, we lynch me then, or leave me alive, for I claimed my target and am harmless due to it.
Mastin dies, is revealed (what we know already) that he is a lyncher. No new info, no. But so what?
So, INFORMATION IS WHAT
ANY
TOWN NEEDS THE
MOST
!
People will be night killed most likely, and we'll get that info.
Which we ALSO get if we lynch someone ELSE day one.

Isn't ANYONE listening to that part of my argument?
But we'll be one step ahead, with a lyncher gone
We would have night one.
We would have day two.
If my target is believed (I've given all I can to support that Red is my target. At least for metagaming purposes, in the future, please keep this in mind, people:
I WON'T LIE WHEN I AM OUTED AS ANTI-TOWN!), I'm left alive for longer.
If not,
Well,
then I die day two.

We'd be no steps further ahead by lynching me today than we would be by leaving me alive, OP.
and day 2, we won't have to worry about all that, and can focus primarily on finding and lynching mafia.
We can do this today--
Why wait?
We might not even have a vig.
Again--
In a setup of this size?
Please.

We have a vig.
And if there's a sk, they'll fake as a vig.
There is even a bigger chance we don't have a psychiatrist or a recruiter.
One night.
That's all I ask for to test this.
One night.

That too much to ask for when I can't win day one?
I don't think Mastin thinks that we do either.
I HOPE we do.
He is trying to make it one more day, one trick at a time. He knows we're better off getting rid of him now.
If I believed we were better off without me today, I'd vote for myself and end the day.

I don't.



I likely have to leave, now; be back as soon as possible with yet more.
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True to my word, I'm retiring. Totally not me. :P
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Post Post #588 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 9:17 pm

Post by zoraster »

I strongly believe those who absolutely refuse to believe my target claim, despite the evidence, want to set up a Red Coyote lynch in the future, for they don't want three semi-clears, and as long as I am around, I will prevent Red from being lynched.
I don't want to rehash the same arguments over and over, but every time you mention that you have proved or shown clear evidence that RC is your target I will have to post. It is not true.
To ignore them is to ignore a player who has stated his pro-town intentions, whose post count and post length accurately reflects his devotion to the game.
I think there's an assumption that everyone, other than trolls, wants to state pro-town intentions. Devotion to the game is not equal to devotion to town.
While I am pro-town in intention, I am anti-town in role. And that means that I will say whatever I wish to, in order to hopefully
get the town to listen to me.
survive.
Fixed

(levity!)
I am. This is how I play. (I haven't had this much fun since 735/742 when defending my cop claim. The thrill of defending oneself from attacks is the best part of the game, precisely why I do it so often.)
Which is precisely why I think your post counts and post length have little to do with your "pro-town" intention. I think you get a thrill out of defending. I don't think it has anything to do with how town you are.

You haven't played scum yet, but I can't help but feel that you'd take to this role with great vigor (nothing wrong with this!)
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Post Post #589 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 9:19 pm

Post by Empking's Alt »

So, INFORMATION IS WHAT ANY TOWN NEEDS THE MOST!
So, mass claim?
AdjectivePick needs
0
replacements.
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Post Post #590 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 9:25 pm

Post by hewitt »

RedCoyote wrote:If so, why are you voting OP for his vote of Mastin?
That was not the sole reason I voted for OrangePenguin.
RedCoyote wrote:
hewitt 383 wrote:I can't just go into this situation thinking the best possible scenario is for Mastin to be lynched today. If anything I would rather get some information and help out of him first, he says he wants to be a pro-town player...so why not give him a chance? We've got a lot of time until the deadline...
This seems to be a departure from your previous thoughts. Would you explain this?
Incorrect this is most definitely not a departure from my previous thoughts, I'm pretty sure I've been deadset against lynching Mastin today the whole time. I can't decide whether he's lying or not is the issue, not whether I would like to see him lynched today or not. I don't quite see how we're really being benefited other than the fact that we won't get his incredibly annoying walls of text anymore. I think he should be saved for a later day, we have time.
RedCoyote wrote:
hewitt 394 wrote:If Mastin is telling the truth then I would say Mastin is pro-town albeit he's not town (weird eh?). But considering I think he's lying I would have to say he's the most anti-town at the moment although not the person I would like to see lynched.
Wait, I think I misunderstood you. Are you voting OP because he is the second highest vote getter or because you think he's scummy?
Uh, no. I don't play that type of game. I don't vote for people because they are the "second highest vote getter."
Empking's Alt wrote:
RedCoyote wrote: Emp - Borderline active lurker, shows support of a Mastin lynch, doesn't give strong impressions on any other aspects of the game.
Trying to push attention off of Mastin is anti-town.
I don't think there's such thing as pushing attention off Mastin, I think he's pretty much imprinted in our mind's and in our thoughts every post we make this game. This statement is outlandish and unhelpful, fact.
NanookTheWolf wrote:So to summarize, I think the odds of Mastin being a Jester are miniscule. Even though we could "do better" with a lynch as Tar has stated earlier, we also could still do worse (lynching a pro town role such as doc, cop, vig, etc.)
What are the chances of that happening though? I don't think I've ever seen a power role lynched without claiming first and I don't think I've ever seen a power role lynched D1. I doubt we're going to end up lynching a power role today.
King wrote:I agree with Zor and we also like to point out that if we do not lynch someone who is known to be anti-town (Mastin), then our chances of lynching a townie goes up significantly.

In other words:
We lynch Mastin, we keep all our townies.
We don't lynch Mastin, we probably lose a townie.

This is the only thing that matters.
Damn everybody is so negative. Let's focus on not losing a townie and instead try to lynch scum, awesome. And if we lynch Mastin today are we in a much better situation tomorrow? Do we have a significantly greater chance of not lynching a townie than we do today?

Let me make my opinion quite clear- Mastin has got to go. Does Mastin have to go today? I think absolutely not and I don't think he should go today. If we believe he's telling the whole truth then he's absolutely nothing to worry about right???
AceMarksman wrote:Holy posts batman! I do believe that I asked the activity to die down a little bit? It seems the opposite has happened. Why, oh why?
... Why would you want that.
Caboose wrote:Mastin is lying about his lynchee, and I think his lynchee is OP.

We need to lynch Mastin today.
Would you like to back this statement up?
orangepenguin wrote:
Caboose wrote:Mastin is lying about his lynchee, and I think his lynchee is OP.
I would not be surprised at all. It's hilarious seeing the town listen to him though. I am pretty sure he is lying though. This is why I want lynched day 1 instead of 2, because we don't know for sure who his lynchee is, other than his word. We could mislynch on a townie today and the day would be wasted, whereas lynching Mastin day 1 would prevent a mislynch, and then Day 2, we can focus on finding scum. But Mastin has twisted this to compare it to a no lynch, which is stupid. Mastin =/= a no lynch.
WTF? Yes, we should not focus on finding scum and instead wait until D2 to do that? WOW! That makes great sense!

... This is exactly why I think you're opportunistic scum, this post basically sums up the reason why I'm voting for you.
Mastin wrote:If I reach L-3, I'd want any conversion role to claim. If they exist, then we can afford to not lynch me. Put the doc on the conversion role, have the conversion role convert me (obviously) and ask the vig to shoot me, just in case.
Okay listen, just so that your head can deflate a little bit, you are really not that important Mastin. We can afford to lynch you anytime we feel the need to, is that need right now? No. But you are not crucial in a town win.
Mastin wrote:-Get one gigantic post with everything I've said in my defense in the game
I swear to God, do not flipping do this...I don't think it'll be helpful to your case.
Empking's Alt wrote:Mastin: We have better odds on hitting mafia day 2 than day 1.
NOT IF WE LYNCH SCUM TODAY YOU DINGBAT.
Phoebus wrote:Pray, can someone tell me where this idea of masons recruiting people came up?

if you're all being hypothetical... that's pretty unproductive. not to mention profligate on the posts which may well lead to nothing at all...
...Who are you???
zoraster wrote:That's fine, but given the time it takes, I'll continue to push your lynch. You've shown me no data that has flatly contradicted my point: lynching you D1 is preferable to lynching you D2. THIS is why I'm trying to get you not to waste your time and ours by giving us your best possible case.
Are you going to play this entire game off data? Because that would be very unhelpful of you. This game isn't a big math equation because you don't know the problem, so let's not even pretend like you do.
Phoebus wrote:i'm voting him because his posts are long.

because his arguments are all over the place.

the only thing he's left to claim now is doctor or mafia.

his claim of us finding half the scum in all the accusations he's made - makes it easy to claim that when he's accusing half of the active players

his insistence on mason recruiters
his "guess" at being a N1 vig target
this is conjecture at best.
serves as rolefish bait at best, unnecessary fluff at worst.

people who have said discussion is good, it gives information... well, after killing Mastin and after the resolution of all night actions, if you can't get information from analysing his interaction after that (from over 5 pages of content solely from Mastin) - then it strikes me that your hypothesis is unfounded.

where/when do you draw the line between discussion and distraction?
how much do you need to sift through - to get information?

do you expect to crack the game on day 2?
is this even a game?
is it some boring scientific analysis?

play it. don't flog the fun out of it.
Oh. You actually semi-contribute to the game. Okay.
Phoebus wrote:i will be voting azhrei tomorrow.
Do you care to explain why? Or are you waiting for a written request from another play asking you to explain.
zoraster wrote:By the way, I'm really worried that this game has ceased (if it ever was) to be fun for the other players involved. As such, I am now limiting any post I make to 250 of unquoted words (to compare, my last one was roughly 1500 words). I reserve the right to revoke this tomorrow, but for today, I'll limit myself.

I could blame Mastin for starting the wall of texts, but I'm complicit as well. Brevity is the soul of wit, and I can't help but feel we're saying much of the same thing to each other anyway.
Are you kidding? I'm having bunches of fun! This is like, my favorite game I've ever been in as of yet, and it's only D1!
Zer0ph34r wrote:Caboose, no. I will not vote for someone unless I think they are scum. Which I don't think Mastin is.
Correct! People, MASTIN ISN'T SCUM. He isn't scum! My main goal for today is to find scum and I feel like most players are not playing with that goal in mind, especially OrangePenguin, Empking, zwets, zoraster, and StevieT92. All of whom I feel are the most opportunistic players in this game and most likely to be scum at this point. And none of you can even try to shift that on to Mastin because it isn't possible for him to be scum!
Caboose wrote:
Zer0ph34r wrote:Caboose, no. I will not vote for someone unless I think they are scum. Which I don't think Mastin is.
Do you think Mastin is telling the truth about who his lynchee is?
I forgot but Caboose should be on the opportunistic list as well.
Caboose wrote:Mastin is a lyncher and Dev claimed JOAT.
That is not even close to an adequate summary of this game.
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RECORD

Town-Win- 2
Town-NightKilled-Loss- 3
Town-Loss- 4
Mafia-Win- 1
Mafia-Loss- 3

Team Win Percentage- 23.08%
Basically...my teams usually lose. How fun is that!
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Post Post #591 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 9:42 pm

Post by zoraster »

Are you going to play this entire game off data? Because that would be very unhelpful of you. This game isn't a big math equation because you don't know the problem, so let's not even pretend like you do.
One of the reasons I've decided to impose a 250 word limit is because I think that people will just pick out a few sentences from any post anyway. This is what's happened here. My assertion with data was a pretty small part of the total reason for voting for Mastin. It became a "deal" when Mastin called my math wrong and selective.
Let me make my opinion quite clear- Mastin has got to go. Does Mastin have to go today? I think absolutely not and I don't think he should go today. If we believe he's telling the whole truth then he's absolutely nothing to worry about right???
This bothers me. If you're saying he has to go at some point, when is that point for you? When is a better day than today?

Second, I don't believe -- and nor do I think should you -- that he's telling the whole truth.
And none of you can even try to shift that on to Mastin because it isn't possible for him to be scum!
Every time someone says this with such certainty it makes me recoil. I understand that the most likely scenario is that he's Lyncher and if he's lying it's simply about his target. But the number of times I've seen it said that there's just simply no way that he could be scum makes me think that it's plausible he could be.

Again, I'm not pushing his lynch because of this at all. My more logical side thinks the simplest solution is usually the correct one (rather than a complex conspiracy between Dev and Mastin... perhaps even using the day talk ability Mastin mentioned off hand for a while).

Anyway, just want to reassert that my reason for lynching Mastin has to do with the fact he's lyncher probably lying about his target.

(240 words. just under the limit!)
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Post Post #592 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 10:45 pm

Post by hewitt »

zoraster wrote:One of the reasons I've decided to impose a 250 word limit is because I think that people will just pick out a few sentences from any post anyway. This is what's happened here. My assertion with data was a pretty small part of the total reason for voting for Mastin. It became a "deal" when Mastin called my math wrong and selective.

This bothers me. If you're saying he has to go at some point, when is that point for you? When is a better day than today?

Second, I don't believe -- and nor do I think should you -- that he's telling the whole truth.

Every time someone says this with such certainty it makes me recoil. I understand that the most likely scenario is that he's Lyncher and if he's lying it's simply about his target. But the number of times I've seen it said that there's just simply no way that he could be scum makes me think that it's plausible he could be.

Again, I'm not pushing his lynch because of this at all. My more logical side thinks the simplest solution is usually the correct one (rather than a complex conspiracy between Dev and Mastin... perhaps even using the day talk ability Mastin mentioned off hand for a while).

Anyway, just want to reassert that my reason for lynching Mastin has to do with the fact he's lyncher probably lying about his target.

(240 words. just under the limit!)
I don't care about the word limit, it was the probabilities that really annoyed me.

The day I want Mastin to go is the day after we've lynched scum. If we're going to not lynch scum I would rather it be after we've already at least lynched one, if this isn't until D4 or D5 I'm completely fine with that.

And I think it's bullshit that you think there's a possibility Mastin could be scum. At this point I've even given up that he's the Jester, there's a slight chance but I don't think that chance is anything substantial. I'm pretty damn convinced he's Lyncher. And I'm pretty damn sure you think so as well.

And I don't think you're being logical in this at all, and you seem like a pretty logical guy (considering all the talk of the probablities even though I hate that). I can't believe that you're being opportunistic like this and voting for someone who we pretty much know isn't scum. I'm calling opportunistic scum right here, you seem too smart to play like this as town.

Unvote, Vote: zoraster


If Mastin is lynched today I feel that we've basically wasted the day. It hasn't really been too much time (real time) for a D1 and I don't feel that much will have been accomplished in this day. We'll basically have lynched a player who wasn't even a threat that day. If anything, hold off until tomorrow when he actually IS a threat and can win the game.
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RECORD

Town-Win- 2
Town-NightKilled-Loss- 3
Town-Loss- 4
Mafia-Win- 1
Mafia-Loss- 3

Team Win Percentage- 23.08%
Basically...my teams usually lose. How fun is that!
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Post Post #593 (ISO) » Sun May 24, 2009 11:58 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

orangepenguin wrote:
Tarhalindur wrote:Hmm. Thinking about Selective Scumhunting just brought something to mind:
orangepenguin wrote:Mastin, way to tunnel this early on. I wouldn't be surprised if the real scum are sitting back, enjoying that you're taking all the heat for them. I am not sure about your wagon being scum driven. I mean,
I doubt your partners are on you, but most of them are scum?
I really doubt it. I mean, there could be 1 or 2, but I know that I am not scum. You shouldn't be so close minded this early on. You're not going to get anywhere, if you already think you've won when half the players haven't posted yet.
I commented earlier that something about the logic on this post - specifically, the underlined sentence in the post - wasn't making sense.

I just realized how it *would* make sense - if there are 2 Mafias in the game, and orangepenguin was saying that he thought that the other members of Mastin's Mafia weren't on his wagon and that only a few of the *other* Mafia was on his wagon.

But then, how would orangepenguin know that there are two Mafias (if there are even two Mafias) unless he was in one of those Mafias himself? Maybe a really odd power role, but I doubt it...

It's not damning without evidence that there are two Mafias in the setup... but it's quite damning indeed should that evidence appear later.
That was back when I thought Mastin was scum. In such a large set-up, I am just assuming there is more than one mafia. There has been 0 deaths yet, so I have no evidence or anything, but with 27 players, I figure there must be at least more than one scum faction. The last game I played with about 30 players had 2 factions, so I was only assuming. Before my post, Mastin was going on about his wagon being scum-driven. I thought Mastin was scum, and I was on the wagon, and I know I am not scum - I think at the time there was 7 people on his wagon. Taking me out of it, assuming that Mastin was scum at the time, with two different factions, I said kind of arrogantly at Mastin that I doubt his partners were on it, but that it was possible that one or two scum
could
be on it, because it would be possible.
I just realized how it *would* make sense - if there are 2 Mafias in the game, and orangepenguin was saying that he thought that the other members of Mastin's Mafia weren't on his wagon and that only a few of the *other* Mafia was on his wagon.
That is basically what I was implying. I thought I was more clearer than that, but reading the quote of me above, it is poorly worded. How would I know? Well, I don't know for sure. But do you honestly believe there is only one scum faction with 27 players?
With 27 players at game start? That's a bad assumption at best. I've seen, played in, and even run plenty of very large games (>25 players) with a single scum faction and an SK/Cult or two. See: Mafia 75 (30 players, 1x 5 man Mafia, 1x SK, 2x oddball cult recruiters that boiled down to a single weak Cult); Mind Screw Mafia 3 (31 players, 5x Mafia, 1x SK/Cult, 4x Neutrals), Doctor Who Mafia 2 (30 players, 5x Mafia, 1x Cult, 1x SK), and that's just the ones I've played in. Multiple factions are fairly common, but by no means universal - especially not when oddball neutrals are apparently in the game (see: Mastin).

Moreover, the fact that you immediately assumed 2 Mafias instead of any other possibility (by your own admission) is an ENORMOUS scumtell, almost lynchworthy in and of itself (particularly at 27 players, which would fit nicely at 20 town, 5 Mafia, 1 SK, 1 Neutral or something similar) because it strongly suggests that you have a rolebased reason to believe that 2 Mafia exist and the most obvious option is that you're scum and know your faction is underpowered for 27 players.

Also, your comment on "last time I played a game with 30 players"? Outside of Open Games (which have revealed setups from game start), the only game I can see which you have played here that is as large as this one is an ongoing game. Care to explain?

Unvote, Vote: orangepenguin


Note: While I've been assuming 1 Mafia because I hadn't seen any reason to assume otherwise up to this point, if orangepenguin is Mafia we're almost certainly dealing with multiscum. That would mean that IIoA is a largely useless tell and Selective Scumhunting is reliable; as such, asking "who do you think so and so is scum with" becomes critically important. I'll be looking at who orangepenguin might be scum with myself ASAP.

(Setup aside: I doubt that there's only 1 scum kill in the setup, but with 27 players at game start my first thought was 21-5-1 (21 town, 5 Mafia, 1 SK), perhaps with a neutral or two (now definitely at least 1, given Mastin). Other possibilities that immediately came to mind with 27 alive at game start included 22-5 (22 town, 5 Mafia), 21-4-1-1 (21 town, 4 Mafia [probably with powers], 1 SK, 1 Cult Leader), 19-8-8 (19 town, 4 Mafia 1, 4 Mafia 2)*, and 18-4-4-1 (18 town, 4 Mafia 1, 4 Mafia 2, 1 SK). The key factor for deciding between these is the number of kills that appear, and that's not information we'll have until tomorrow.

* - somewhat doubtful but possible, IMO.)
User out of ambit.

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Post Post #594 (ISO) » Mon May 25, 2009 2:01 am

Post by Empking »

hewitt wrote:
Empking's Alt wrote:Mastin: We have better odds on hitting mafia day 2 than day 1.
NOT IF WE LYNCH SCUM TODAY YOU DINGBAT..
Yes if we hit mafia today we have worse odds on hitting mafia tommorow than 100%, what's your point?
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Post Post #595 (ISO) » Mon May 25, 2009 3:29 am

Post by zu_Faul »

Mastin and Dev are lyncher tag-team. Considering the size of the game this could be appropriate. Posts like this:
Devestation wrote:just a thought. How does Red being the target CLEAR him? Are all lynchee's townies or what?
just reinforce this belive.
Well that was a bit out of the box. I believe Mastin's target is OP, if Dev is telling the truth.
THe list Mastin gave was BS, Red was a lurker as well up to that point, he should have been "easy".

I rather have a real townie than a "honorary" one.
RedCoyote wrote:There's a great deal of potential in leaving Mastin alive that we throw away if we lynch him. That's the single most important reason why he should be left alive.
I don't get this. Why are we not wasting potential if we lynch someone else?

OrangePenguin seems not very scummy to me.

I am up to page 19.
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Post Post #596 (ISO) » Mon May 25, 2009 4:19 am

Post by AceMarksman »

tar wrote:The key factor for deciding between these is the number of kills that appear, and that's not information we'll have until tomorrow.
You forget the possibility of a vidge or like role. We might have a number of kills originating from pro-town roles.
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Post Post #597 (ISO) » Mon May 25, 2009 5:50 am

Post by zu_Faul »

I seem to have missed a part of Dev's claim (just like at first I missed the whole claim, thinking it was a joke); that Mastin can only start at D2 to get to his goal. Makes it unlikely OP is the target, unless there really is a Dev/Mastin team.
Mastin wrote:Leaving me alive d1 will test the setup--do we have a vig who'll shoot me, do we have a psychiatrist for a lyncher, do we have a mason recruiter, do we have a role capable of making me town?
This benefits scum just as much as town, if not more.
Mastin wrote:-Red, if mafia, would've just lied--said he was a lynchee. Confirm me to avoid being the lynch. He didn't. He's telling the truth, hence, isn't mafia. Hence, he wouldn't be lynched, anyway, even if I had claimed someone else as my target.
It is likely that the lynchee isn't told that he is.

Mastin, you are a huge smoke screen for the scum. You are not in the least useful.

Read page 19 now.
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Post Post #598 (ISO) » Mon May 25, 2009 5:52 am

Post by zu_Faul »

Keeping Mastin around and using his "help" would not be very useful, since he will always push for his target. He would be a bad honorary townie.
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Post Post #599 (ISO) » Mon May 25, 2009 6:02 am

Post by zwetschenwasser »

StevieT92 wrote:Oh and it's hammer time

VOTE: MASTIN


He's defending himself wayyy too hard, and not really using good logic. That makes him worth a lynch because his intentions are still unclear to me.
Hey, my gambit worked! Die opportunistic scum!
Unvote; Vote: StevieT92
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