Mini 894: Vortex (Game, Set, Match)

[RayFrost]

During N1, boxman stated he had townish reads on tar, myself, and forbs/UK.

he didn't like DoS (malth's posting) or konowa (gut)

[GLaDOS]

... Processing ...

Not testing you at all.

Though I did say something last night, it wasn't of much value.

ERROR 404: NOT FOUND

Please confirm the above statement. I just double-checked and you in fact did not say anything in the secret place beyond the first night which occurred in January.

I am forced to wonder if you are mixing up night threads.

[RayFrost]

I did so on the sixth. Would you like hour and minute as well?

It can be summed up as 'I have no reads'

[GLaDOS]

... Processing ...

I did so on the sixth. Would you like hour and minute as well?

It can be summed up as 'I have no reads'

I would not quote hour and minutes as that may be construed as "quoting".

Regardless, such a post from you does not exist. I have now triple-checked as well as refreshed that page, and there are simply no posts from you or Boxman in February.

[GLaDOS]

... Processing ...

I have just finished reading the game. I will try to reread the game when I have more time within the next few days, as Day Two in particular contained much information and much speculation.

A few notes I will make about my role, since the subjects may turn out to be important: I was neither told that I was a “time traveler” nor whether I am a “past” or “future” Mary. As mentioned earlier, I asked the Mod if there might possibly be multiple Mary’s or multiple Joe’s, and I was told (paraphrasing) that I have no reason to know why anything like that could occur (despite me pointing out that I objectively know there are two Gary’s, as indicated through death scenes).

A few questions / comments:

1.)

Boxman is inactive.

He's definitely not the last scum.

I hate to continually question the only person in-game who is calling Boxman (me) Town, but what makes you believe there is only one scum remaining?

2.)

RayFrost, I would also like you to explain how we went from having a conversation just earlier to you not responding to me. I have been expecting a response of some sort for well over an hour at this point. [That said, I will be going off-line once this post is made, so please do not expect an immediate response if you start posting again.]

3.)

What were you [RayFrost] trying to do in the post where there were multiple posts and you said “tag fail”? Related to that, how often do you leave breadcrumbs?

4.)

Despite the couple of concerns with RayFrost I currently have, I still think he is likely to be Town based on: (i) his “trick” in the secret place (about whether RayFrost had been confirmed to be Town to Boxman); and (ii) how obvious it was that RayFrost was Boxman’s partner. Even before I had received my role, I was on Page 11 of the game, and I had decided that RayFrost was very likely to be Boxman’s Mason-partner.


~

I am being booted off my computer, so I will have to continue this at another time. I need to double-check how internally consistent the claims are anyways before I decide on my prime suspect.

[RayFrost]

The quoted post... take it in context.

Short post is short.

JVW being lynched and Sajin dying last night and game not ending re-affirms my belief that

Boxman is likely the last scum.

vote Boxman

@Boxman: Who is scum?

Boxman is inactive.

He's definitely not the last scum.

[RayFrost]

Guys, I wasn't informed of being a time traveler or any future/past stuff, either.

... Processing ...

I did so on the sixth. Would you like hour and minute as well?

It can be summed up as 'I have no reads'

I would not quote hour and minutes as that may be construed as "quoting".

Regardless, such a post from you does not exist. I have now triple-checked as well as refreshed that page, and there are simply no posts from you or Boxman in February.

There is a post by me. I am the most recent post in the convo, and the most recent post is on the 6th.

2. I had to go, so I couldn't continue our conversation. schoolwork, etc.

3. Ummm... I

used

to leave 1/2 breadcrumbs if I had a PR, but now I realize they just fail. ~.~ IIR,C the post you are talking about is one where I tried to do underline, italics, and bold in quote stuffs. That was a failbreadcrumb.

4. Me being obv your/boxman's partner is totally not my doing! >.>

[Tarhalindur]

The quoted post... take it in context.

Short post is short.

JVW being lynched and Sajin dying last night and game not ending re-affirms my belief that

Boxman is likely the last scum.

vote Boxman

@Boxman: Who is scum?

Boxman is inactive.

He's definitely not the last scum.

Okay, THAT's got my attention.

RayFrost: Do you believe Boxman/GLaDOS is scum with a surviving partner? This question is extremely important.

[RayFrost]

Okay, THAT's got my attention.

RayFrost: Do you believe Boxman/GLaDOS is scum with a surviving partner? This question is extremely important.

It's the

only

possibility of boxman/GLaDOS being scum at this point, imo.

Boxman was away, so he couldn't have done the kill.

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, THAT's got my attention.

RayFrost: Do you believe Boxman/GLaDOS is scum with a surviving partner? This question is extremely important.

It's the

only

possibility of boxman/GLaDOS being scum at this point, imo.

Boxman was away, so he couldn't have done the kill.

Yes, I get that you've concluded that Boxman/GLaDOS can only be scum if there is a second surviving Mafioso (not strictly the case, but any alternatives require unlikely things such as a compulsive-kill Mafia or a second SK... and since we've got a day before LyLo if GLaDOS is the last scum we don't have to worry about such possibilities until tomorrow anyways). That wasn't the question I was asking.

What I'm asking is whether, given what you know at the moment, you think GLaDOS is town or scum. There's a reason for me asking, and I'll explain after you answer the actual question.

[RayFrost]

I think boxman is scum, I think GLaDOS is town.

Currently leaning towards scum, but not completely certain on that.

[Tarhalindur]

I think boxman is scum, I think GLaDOS is town.

Currently leaning towards scum, but not completely certain on that.

Let me get this straight:

You think that Boxman's player slot is likely scum AND that Boxman can't be the only surviving scum (even if you don't think that's the case now, you apparently did at the beginning of the day). That implies that you think two players are scum from the same faction.

Last I checked, there are only six players alive (barring shenanigans with the missing players). If two of them are Mafia, that means that WE ARE IN LYLO.

However... I don't see this conclusion reflected in your play today. You haven't voted, admittedly - but you also haven't taken any of the usual LyLo actions (you didn't comment on me bringing up the possibility of LyLo earlier, you haven't said anything about a full massclaim [aka THE first action you take at LyLo if you haven't already], you haven't been warning players to be cautious about voting, etc.).

That doesn't add up to me. In fact, this line of reasoning is why I started questioning you so suddenly in the first place (to lock down your position on Boxman).

Unvote

while I think this over - I was assuming a single surviving scum when I voted Boxman (hadn't realized that he'd flaked the site). I now have to seriously consider the possibility of a Konowa/RayFrost scumteam (since pushing for Boxman early would make sense if you're part of a two-man team that doesn't include Boxman).

Also, to all players: Post your thoughts on massclaim in your next post.

[RayFrost]

I could've sworn that we had already all claimed.

[RayFrost]

Last I checked, there are only six players alive (barring shenanigans with the missing players). If two of them are Mafia, that means that WE ARE IN LYLO.

However... I don't see this conclusion reflected in your play today. You haven't voted, admittedly - but you also haven't taken any of the usual LyLo actions (you didn't comment on me bringing up the possibility of LyLo earlier, you haven't said anything about a full massclaim [aka THE first action you take at LyLo if you haven't already], you haven't been warning players to be cautious about voting, etc.).

I hadn't actually made the mental connection of 'six alive, two mafia, this is lylo'

my brain's been offline for a while.

[GLaDOS]

... Processing ...

1.)

The Mod has since updated the secret place for me (or something) and I can now see RayFrost's post from Night Two. I originally thought that would be an incredibly stupid thing to lie about saying, and I am not surprised that it was, in fact, truthful.

2.)

Still, I am now going to force the issue here:

IIR,C the post you are talking about is one where I tried to do underline, italics, and bold in quote stuffs. That was a failbreadcrumb.

That is the exact post I was to which I referred. What were you trying to crumb with that post? My first thought upon seeing that post was that you were indeed trying to breadcrumb

something

, and I would like to know what that was.

~~~

For what little I can say about Boxman's play, I will mention that Boxman opening the game voting RayFrost is the opposite of suspicious given my role and the circumstances.

As you all know by now, the pre-game discussion between Boxman and RayFrost began with RayFrost trying to "trick" Boxman, which resulted in RayFrost thinking Boxman was probably Town. Common sense dictates that a scum-Boxman would not then vote RayFrost. A scum-Boxman would rather stay on RayFrost's "good side" in order to survive longer into the game through silent support. Boxman has never fit the profile of scum trying to take advantage of a Mason situation, and the reason for this is that I am not scum.

Despite how non-talkative Boxman was in-thread, he did give his suspicions in the secret place (where RayFrost did not). His drop in posting was clearly not "strategic" since this resulted in him being replaced directly after night -- it almost goes without saying that had Boxman made any PMs overnight to the Mod that he would not have been replaced so soon in the Day.

The argument "if there are Neighbors, then one of them is probably scum" is patently invalid, and merely direct votes towards two people simultaneously without necessitating analysis of other players or even those two players in particular.

On that note (and unrelated to my defense of Boxman), the argument that "one of the Stephens" must be scum is of the same form, although it is obviously statistically more likely given the fact that there are more claimed Stephens than claimed Mason-Neighbors.

~~~

I have not yet had the chance to re-read the game, but when I do I will see if my current thoughts hold up. Currently, I think malthusis and probably RayFrost are likely to be Town: malthusis appears to be genuinely scumhunting, and RayFrost appeared to have been trying to determine Boxman's alignment with good faith. I have had a couple misgivings with Tarhalindur and Konowa. I currently cannot remember much of anything from DragonsofSummer.

[Tarhalindur]

Screw it, it's probably LyLo and I've already claimed anyways (though I don't think anyone actually noticed), so I'm just going to make it clear now.

Remember this post from Day 1? Yeah, this one:

...

My inside information: I was approached (flavor, not actual role conversation) before the game by John (engineer friend). He claimed to be from a future where he and my future counterpart had successfully invented a time machine (the Box). Furthermore, he claimed that Box-enabled time travel was causing critical damage to the timeline. Then he tells me that the only way to fix it was to stuff everybody into the Box so that they couldn't activate the time machine... and asks for my help.

At this point, my character is horrified (apparently his proposed solution is tantamount to mass murder*) and flat-out refuses to help (I may be a friend, but not THAT much of a friend). In retaliation, future-John attempts to stuff me into the Box, but I'm able to get away and hide well enough that he can't find me.

...

Take a close look at that second paragraph again:

... In retaliation, future-John attempts to stuff me into the Box, but I'm able to get away and

hide

well enough that he can't find me...

Why yes, I AM for all practical purposes a Hider. (While it's a bit odd that I actually get to know what my power does from a setup standpoint, it seems to hold up from a flavor standpoint - time travel seems to induce memory loss, and since I haven't time traveled I haven't lost my memory.) I'm told that if John catches me (by me hiding with the person he kills or inadvertently hiding with him or anyone working with him), he'll kill me; this is the primary reason why I've assumed the existence of a second, Mafia John (because only dying if you hide behind the SK doesn't make sense to me, especially given the mention of possible people working with him).

I hid behind malthusis N1 and DoS N2. I rather doubt that either is Mafia at this point, since if either is scum I should be dead right now (barring a protection on the relevant night or "only scum John is SK" shenanigans).

As such, from where I'm sitting if there are two Mafiosos surviving then one of the Neighbors is almost CERTAINLY scum. (If not, I'd lean towards Konowa being the last scum at this point.)

Konowa, DoS, and malthusis need to fullclaim (preferably in that order); RayFrost and GLaDOS appear to have already fullclaimed and thus don't need to again.

More later, I'm short on time at the moment.

[GLaDOS]

... Processing ...

Tarhalindur,

1.)

At the beginning of Night Two, there was only one live claimed John, who was DragonsofSummer. Despite the fact that you believe your role has you automatically killed for hiding with the wrong John, you purposefully hid behind the final claimed John.

Why did you hide behind DragonsofSummer knowing that he was the only person alive who had claimed John?

2.)

Based on the above, if there is a Mafia John that would kill you, it almost necessarily would have to be julienvonwolfe, who had claimed John prior to being lynched. If JVW was Mafia, then we have two dead Mafia which would (hopefully) leave us with a maximum of one scum remaining, which would mean we are not in LyLo. If there is only scum remaining, then there is strong evidence that it is not me on account of Boxman needing to be replaced shortly upon Daybreak.

In the alternative, if the Mafia John that could kill you is still alive, then there must be a claimed person who has lied about their name (unless you were saved from dying last night).

Neither RayFrost nor I are lying about our names -- we are very clearly Mary and Joe, and in fact, we were both told each others' names at the beginning of the game. Hence, if there is a Mafia John still alive based on your results, it cannot be: DragonsofSummer or malthusis (the two people you hid behind), myself or RayFrost (clearly Mary and Joe), or yourself (being the one with information). That would only leave Konowa to be the Mafia John about which you are theorizing.

~~~

That said, when I do reread the game I will now be taking your full-claim into account.

[GLaDOS]

... Processing ...

To summarize:

From Tarhalindur's point of view, if we are in LyLo then there is probably a Mafia John alive, which would mean Konowa is that Mafia John. If we are not in LyLo, then there is substantial evidence that I am not scum because of Boxman's absence.

Either way, Tarhalindur should not be voting for me today unless he retracts his Mafia John theory.

[Tarhalindur]

... Processing ...

To summarize:

From Tarhalindur's point of view, if we are in LyLo then there is probably a Mafia John alive, which would mean Konowa is that Mafia John. If we are not in LyLo, then there is substantial evidence that I am not scum because of Boxman's absence.

Either way, Tarhalindur should not be voting for me today unless he retracts his Mafia John theory.

GLaDOS, pay attention to my posts please - I unvoted you earlier, after RayFrost brought up that Boxman appeared to have flaked the site (which I had not realized until then).

Also, pay attention to my flavor claim D1. The John that was after me claimed to have traveled through time. DoS has very specifically claimed not traveling through time. Given that and his D2 play, I decided that hiding behind him was the least risky prospect (malthusis was a likely NK, I don't especially trust either neighbor/mason and you were decent NK targets anyways, chamber had claimed power, Sajin was at the top of my scum list and thus a Bad Idea, Konowa was decently likely to be scum, and I can't exactly hide behind myself).

As for Mafia John, I see three possibilities:
1) Konowa is the Mafia John (falseclaiming future Stephen).
2) JVW was the Mafia John, and there is one surviving Mafioso.
3) Sajin was the Mafia John (falseclaiming future Stephen), and there is one surviving Mafioso.

On balance I consider the latter two possibilities more likely, but since Konowa all-but-has to be scum if two scum are alive (he's scummy and I don't see two scumbags pulling a neighbor gambit) and we shouldn't lose today if Konowa is town (since from where I'm sitting that requires that there be only one surviving Mafioso) he's probably the best lynch right now.

[GLaDOS]

... Processing ...

Tarhalindur, I too ask that you pay attention to my posts and the current situation. Regardless of the fact that you have unvoted me, I was and still am the only person who currently has votes in a possible LyLo situation. Upon replacing into such a situation, my first task is to both get and keep votes off of me. My post was designed for two purposes: to make it clear why you in particular should not revote me, and to make it clear that others should not vote for me based on your reasoning. My second task is now to reread the game and to ask questions so I can find scum.

As for your second point, I think somebody lying about the "time traveler" ability (in this case, DragonsofSummer) is just as likely as somebody lying about one's name. My point is that if I had a role that told me I would die if I hid behind the wrong John, I would certainly not hide behind the only remaining claimed John in the game.

Furthermore, I am not sure that we should be relying as heavily on flavor as we appear to be relying -- I have no idea whether I am a past or future Mary, for example, and even if I did know I fail to see how that could definitively tell anybody anything.

That said, I have a few questions about your claim.

1.)

Are you forced to hide, or can you choose to hide behind nobody at all?

2.)

What happens if you targeted by something other than a nightkill and you are hiding behind somebody? In particular, suppose you are targeted by:
-->

a.)

Cop
-->

b.)

Tracker
-->

c.)

Doctor

3.)

Suppose you targeted the John in question (or somebody he "works with") but you were role-blocked. What result?

4.)

What result if John were to have a nonkilling ability, and he targeted you?

~~~

I am beginning my reread now.

[Tarhalindur]

... Processing ...

Tarhalindur, I too ask that you pay attention to my posts and the current situation. Regardless of the fact that you have unvoted me, I was and still am the only person who currently has votes in a possible LyLo situation. Upon replacing into such a situation, my first task is to both get and keep votes off of me. My post was designed for two purposes: to make it clear why you in particular should not revote me, and to make it clear that others should not vote for me based on your reasoning. My second task is now to reread the game and to ask questions so I can find scum.

As for your second point, I think somebody lying about the "time traveler" ability (in this case, DragonsofSummer) is just as likely as somebody lying about one's name. My point is that if I had a role that told me I would die if I hid behind the wrong John, I would certainly not hide behind the only remaining claimed John in the game.

Furthermore, I am not sure that we should be relying as heavily on flavor as we appear to be relying -- I have no idea whether I am a past or future Mary, for example, and even if I did know I fail to see how that could definitively tell anybody anything.

That said, I have a few questions about your claim.

1.)

Are you forced to hide, or can you choose to hide behind nobody at all?

2.)

What happens if you targeted by something other than a nightkill and you are hiding behind somebody? In particular, suppose you are targeted by:
-->

a.)

Cop
-->

b.)

Tracker
-->

c.)

Doctor

3.)

Suppose you targeted the John in question (or somebody he "works with") but you were role-blocked. What result?

4.)

What result if John were to have a nonkilling ability, and he targeted you?

~~~

I am beginning my reread now.

On hiding behind DoS: I find it ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE, given the importance that John appears to have in this setup and the fact that less important names (Stephen, Joe, and Mary all come to mind... probably also Gary, but we can't be sure), that there isn't a non-time-traveling John in the setup. DoS claimed non-time-traveling John and was not counterclaimed, and I KNOW the John hostile to me is a time traveler.

Also keep in mind that I'm nearly certain the presence or absence of the time traveler ability appears to be testable (see UncertainKitten D1, for instance), so there's a reason for scum NOT to lie about their time traveling status - one that the scum would have known of by the time of massclaim.

So no, I didn't think it was plausible that DoS was lying about not time-traveling. I still don't think it's plausible, as a matter of fact.

Answers:

1) I can choose not to hide (however, considering that I had claimed rolebased on malthusis D2 and led the drive on Cobalt D1, not hiding last night seemed like a spectacularly bad idea to me).
2) My ability mentions only kills; I'd assume it doesn't stop other abilities, but I'll fire off a question to Kinetic to double-check.
3) Again, I'm not explicitly told anything; I'd assume the ability fails and I don't die, but I'll double-check with Kinetic.
4) Again, I haven't been told how abilities other than kills interact with my role; I'll ask Kinetic about this, too.

[GLaDOS]

1.)

I believe Sajin was Town. I agreed with every single one of his posts, and he definitely appeared to be aggressively seeking out scum with pointed questions. His complaints about the game (such as asking people to make clear who they are arguing with) suggest he was actively trying to follow all of the arguments.

2.)

There is a fair chance that JVW was scum, based firstly on his lack of opinions balanced with overabundance of questions, and based secondly on his claimed “unsafe” ability.

3.)

Although I believe there is likely only one scum remaining, I am going to play as if there are two scum remaining in the name of caution.

4.)

I think Boxman was likely correct when he pointed out that Tar's “John” was probably the SK precisely because that particular John wanted to stuff “everybody” into the box.

5.)

I believe malth is probably Town – his claims of information fit pretty flawlessly into everything that has been claimed, including the fact that he stole something from John (hinted at when he asked mipe if something had been stolen from him, confirmed when chamber said he saw malthusis/Joe take something from John). Also, if I am correct in thinking JVW was scum, then I doubt Post 455 was an attempt to bus, but rather an attempt to get a lynch.

6.)

I also think Tarhalindur is probably Town based largely on his Post 466, which definitely leads me to think that he chose malthusis to hide behind on Night One.

Since I believe Tarhalindur to be probably Town, this means I more firmly believe malth to be Town, and although I have misgivings about DragonsofSummer, I will presume he is Town for now. However, I still think that Tar may be “hiding” from the SK-John that is already dead.

7.)

I still believe RayF is likely to be Town, as commented on in prior posts.

8.)

I see little that leads me to believe DragonsofSummer is Town. Whenever I remember he is playing in the game he seems to pop in with an inane post not related to the game.

His post on this Day focusing on the “Lost” status over all else also strikes me as more distracting than helpful. It actually leads me to believe that DoS is the player who is responsible for the “Lost” status (akin to the “he who smelt it, dealt it” philosophy).

The saving grace is Post 492, where DoS lays down his reasons for voting JVW.

DoS, please explain how you created the Box and “know you should not use it” and yet also “know” there had to be multiple Johns in the game. Based off just that information, I would be more prone to think I was the only John since I had created the Box and had not yet used it.

9.)

I see nothing which makes me believe Konowa is Town. I cannot really pinpoint anything, but it seems on the whole that Konowa has consistently been pointing a finger at people I have been thinking are Town (Sajin, RayFrost, and myself) and I naturally am not entirely receptive with this.

~~~

I am not opposed to a mass-claim at this point. If we are in LyLo then there is nothing to lose by mass-claiming. If there is one scum left, then we may very well be able to end the game by mass-claiming (and if not, then we are at least less likely to lose information in the event of another "Lost" status).

[GLaDOS]

... Processing ...

Addendum to #9:

I believe that this post may have been a genuine slip:

JVW being lynched and Sajin dying last night and game not ending re-affirms my belief that Boxman is likely the last scum.

Konowa seems to think (or more pointedly, know) that there is only one scum remaining in the game. I think a Townsperson is more likely to consider the possibility of there being more then one scum remaining.

[Konowa]

Will full claim next post. Waiting on a reply from Kinetic.

[GLaDOS]

... Processing ...

DragonsofSummer, it has been almost a week since your last post. Please give us your opinions on the players in the game.