Mini 932: Let's all be friends (Over)

[WingsOWisdom]

/confirm

[WingsOWisdom]

It's been over a day and a half since Role PMs went out, and we're still waiting for a third of the players (DisgruntledSean, Kaiveran, Sniper, Chevre) to confirm. Presumably our mod will be seeking replacements if these people don't confirm soon?

At least the thread's not locked.

[WingsOWisdom]

Vote: IcemanE

I'm sick of winter.

[WingsOWisdom]

Three votes isn't much of a wagon. Especially when we need 7(?) to lynch.

SpyreX's disapproval of other votes seems like a blatant attempt to control our Day One lynch.

[WingsOWisdom]

At this point in the game, there were two votes already placed - I find it highly unusual that the next four votes

all

hit different targets.
...
The last two votes I am most suspicious of, if only because they are newer players who might be a bit more sensitive to bandwagoning. Were they truly random? I doubt it - there are better odds of one of them hitting an already voted player if they voted randomly. This implies to me they may be wanting to avoid attention early on and follow site culture, which is generally an indication of newness or a weak scumtell.

Except... for me as an individual, the odds were actually

in favor

of me voting for someone who didn't have any votes on them. I had a 7/12 chance of hitting someone who hadn't already been voted for (6/11 if I don't include myself) which is just over half.

You are right on the newness comment, though. I played one and a half newbie games about two years ago, but that's about it, other than skimming a few threads while waiting for this game to start.

Fongold: I think Budja answered your question at the top of Post 86, one line above what you quoted, so it was actually you who missed something that was written.

Mod:

Riddick replaced Kaiveran, right? So Kaiveran shouldn't appear in the vote count. The first post also needs to be updated to reflect this.

Blah. Thanks for this. I was getting frustrated with Kaiveran... - JVW

[WingsOWisdom]

Apparently everybody is off enjoying the weekend?

The two people I addressed in my last post haven't posted since. Clearly, they are scum who are trying to avoid my solid cases against them. I'd vote for one of them, except I'm also liking my icemanE vote, since we've seen a grand total of one post from him all game.

[WingsOWisdom]

IcemanE only has two votes on him (L-5). I'm not even sure you can consider it a wagon at this point, since the first vote on him (mine) was random (although my reasons for keeping my vote on him at this point are not). Between the current number of votes on him (2) and the rate people are posting right now (0), he's nowhere near being lynched. So, what's wrong with a few pressure votes on him?

Also, I don't see the comparison you're making between Riddick's comment about lynching Budja before he returned and the current votes on IcemanE. I can't speak for SpyreX, but I'm hoping to have the exact

opposite

effect: that my vote makes IcemanE return

sooner

.


Unrelated: I'm surprised we didn't hear from Cruelty last night. I noticed his name as the "Last Post" for another game around the same time that I wrote my post last night.

[WingsOWisdom]

Echoing the comments on DisgruntledSean's posts. There seems to be a complete change from 102 to 110. In 102, he's worried about IcemanE getting too many votes, but in 110 he votes for him anyway. In 102, he'd like to wait until IcemanE returns with more content (or is replaced), but in 110 he appears to be considering the benefits of lynching potential-scum IcemanE without hearing further from him.

Unvote Vote: DistruntledSean

DisgruntledSean's flip-flop is more interesting than IcemanE's non-presence. Plus, the pressure votes don't really seem to be working anyway (Riddick: Yeah, I knew they probably wouldn't, but it was worth a shot).

Speaking of...

Prods appear to be at a player's request. How long should we wait before requesting a prod? We haven't heard from Fongoid, Hoopla, IcemanE, or Sidekick since Friday.

You think Hoopla and Fongold are clearly scum yet you keep your vote on a lurker? I see no cases in your last post at all.

Sarcasm.

[WingsOWisdom]

Bleh, I can't type/spell today.

Unvote Vote: DisgruntledSean

Riddick: Heh, I guess that works.

[WingsOWisdom]

L-5 to L-2 in less than 24 hours? That's a little too fast for my liking, especially since IcemanE is not the only person who has contradictory posts.

But I'll admit I've been a bit distracted by recent events on campus today. Hopefully I'll have a clearer head to look at things tomorrow.

[WingsOWisdom]

I was referring to DisgruntledSean's change from 102 to 110.

at what speed would prefer the wagon to go at?

also what do you mean by too fast, is it scummy or wut?

Any speed that doesn't feel like we're rushing towards a quick lynch? I'm not sure that can be quantified.

By too fast I meant that there wasn't a whole lot of time for other players to react, particularly when we had a replacement who hadn't even posted yet and the potential lynchee posts so infrequently that we would probably never hear from him again. Waiting for IcemanE really slows the game down, but it could be useful to let him at defend himself. If he's so obviously scummy that he can't even keep an opinion straight across two posts, I doubt he'll come back with some miracle defense that'll change everyone's mind.

I'm also looking at the people who jumped on the "Hey IcemanE, what changed?" idea without noting the "DisgruntledSean's complete change" idea [Riddick, Sotty], since they're pretty similar in my mind. It makes me think maybe there's a reason why they only mentioned one (that is, trying to protect scum buddy DisgruntledSean without the appearance of buddying). Given the number of votes on DisgruntledSean at this point (only one less than IcemanE by my count), the reverse could also be true, pointing towards TeWuicah.

[WingsOWisdom]

Speaking of not saying why something is scummy, care to explain what about DisgruntledSean makes you think he's town?

[WingsOWisdom]

Speaking of not saying why something is scummy, care to explain what about DisgruntledSean makes you think he's town?

gut read yo. i don't think i can quantify it really. (is quantify the word i'm supposed to use there, idk)

That's kind of my point. You've told me that you think DisgruntledSean is town, but you haven't told me

why

. Perhaps I'm just jealous because my gut seems to only tell me when I'm hungry, but it seems like a fantastic way for scum to have an opinion without actually providing any reasoning.

Also, since you asked: Quantify is more to do with numbers. I think qualify would work, though.

[WingsOWisdom]

Eh, join date doesn't say much about experience.

i missed the join date, i checked his wiki and it seemed he had this game and a newb one.

Er... that's not this game. IcemanE has listed Newbie 584 and Mini 584. We're in Mini 932.

It seems like DisgruntledSean is stretching to find reasons to find IcemanE scummy.

[WingsOWisdom]

It's been almost a whole week since we last saw IcemanE. It's probably time to start looking for a replacement.

If activity rate is an indication of being scum, I'd say we're pretty much screwed, because we're probably about one mis-lynch away from losing the game. Which really means we have a bunch of town players who aren't posting. Yum.

The rules don't seem to indicate any different lynch requirements at deadline, so we're going to have to come to a decision soon. I'd much rather see IcemanE replaced than lynched, especially since we have another strong lynch candidate who at least occasionally posts (DisgruntledSean).

[WingsOWisdom]

At this point, I'm assuming that IcemanE is going to be replaced, so there shouldn't be situation where we could lynch IcemanE or risk a no lynch. I'd rather let the replacement come in and post a bit, so that we all have the opportunity to get a better read before lynching. I'm all for seeing DisgruntledSean claim.

Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind if icemanE's replacement starts acting scummy.

Spyrex: IcemanE was recently replaced out of another game. I don't think he's been posting elsewhere, but without a search function, I can't be 100% certain.

Budja: What do you mean IcemanE hasn't stood out much? He's certainly drawn a lot of attention, and I don't think anybody is ignoring him at this point (although several of us are advocating that we consider other options until he's replaced).

[WingsOWisdom]

I've changed my mind. I'm now in favor of any lynch that will actually get people to log in and post.

[WingsOWisdom]

Sorry, exams got the best of me. Good to see that our replacements are fairly talkative people, I look forward to reading what I missed.

[WingsOWisdom]

Wow, sorry everybody. I've got a bunch to catch up on now, but in the mean time, it looks like you're waiting for a claim from me? I'm a vanilla townie.

[WingsOWisdom]

Of course I'm not thrilled with any plan where I'm likely to be lynched, but I see why it makes sense.

I think it's highly likely that (exactly) one of DisgruntledSean/Budja is lying. Hoopla's plan from 450 isn't bad.

What I like is that, even if DisgruntledSean is the one who is lying about his role, he'd pretty much have to tell the truth about Budja tomorrow, or else risk being lynched himself if we find him wrong. The risk of us discovering such a lie are particularly high if Spyrex survives the night. But perhaps I'm just paranoid, as everyone else seems pretty confident that DisgruntledSean's claim is legit.

Budja, WoW, Cruelty, Sotty are scum/SK in Hoopla's eyes ATM

because we are in a 3:1:8 setup

in other words, there are FOUR baddies.


If this is the case Hoopla, then you may have already broken the game!

Not that I expect you to take my word for it, but since I know this can't be true, it means there's something wrong with our assumptions. My best guess would be among the semi-cleared, but it doesn't currently make any sense to be re-checking people.

[WingsOWisdom]

I'm kind of confused.

[WingsOWisdom]

So Wings, you'd prefer Sean to investigate Budja over Sotty?

Yes. If town, Budja having a power role means he's more valuable to the town (no offense Sotty!) if cleared.


Spyrex -- I'm a little surprised at your surprise. After everyone's reactions to Cruelty's reaction, I probably wouldn't go with (a) even if I had been upset. Why I'm not currently voting for Cruelty would be a fair question though (Answer: It almost seems too easy (logic makes perfect sense + knowing I'm town means he's even more likely to be scum), which is making me hesitate).

I think we have enough people in favor of the plan for the lynch, although we don't appear to have a consensus on which of {Cruelty, myself} to lynch.

[WingsOWisdom]

WoW, since you "know that you are town," then a combination of Cruelty, one or more of the PRs, and all of the players cleared by reports could be scum. In other words, if you are actually town, it means a handful of people are lying!

I have no idea what point you're trying to make. Nobody claimed scum, so of course people are lying! Isn't the whole point of this game to figure out who it is that's lying?

Also, "Cruelty, one or more of the PRs, and all of the players cleared by reports" literally make up the entire rest of the player base. So yes, I'm aware that they could (and if we're making the bold assumption assumption that there are indeed scum in this game, then among those players, there

must

) be scum.

wow's "martyr" attitude is starting to rub me the wrong way. if they are town then they should be working for the cruelty lynch if they believe in the plan, not aqcuiescing to their own hanging. not sure if its worth switching here, but its certainly doesn't read very town to me.

I have certainly not acquiesced to my own hanging. I've simply stated that I believe the logic makes perfect sense, and I understand why I'm a major candidate for today's lynch.

By my count, Cruelty is at L-2 right now. If I know that DisgruntledSean agrees with Hoopla's plan (since he's kind of an important part of it), I'll add my vote as well.

[WingsOWisdom]

Okay, now we know someone is (or several someones are) lying, because I'm not scum, and I'm certainly not a scum team of one.

Here's how things look to me:



Yikes.

I still think exactly one of DistruntledSean and Budja is lying, which means that Sotty is probably cleared at this point. Regardless of which is scum, DisgruntledSean and Budja both getting results and not dying further supports the idea that the mafia do not have a roleblocker, but at this point, I can't even imagine what they might have to counter the town power roles.

1) Snow White is basically town. Spyrex as macho doctor doesn't make much sense without another doctor, and she claimed before he did.

2) Hoopla knew that there was a serial killer in the game, and that it wasn't Sotty. One possibility that has been overlooked so far is that scum could have tried to kill Cruelty N1. Since he was a bulletproof serial killer, in this scenario, scum would have known that a) Cruelty had some protection, b) Neither of our doctors claimed to protected him N1 and c) Someone else killed Riddick. I'm not sure how likely it would be for scum to target Cruelty, but if they did, it wouldn't have been a stretch for them to guess that he was a serial killer (particularly when nobody claimed vig). Or she could be telling the truth.

3) I'm still trying to sort out all the connections in the middle of my flowchart. Lies propagate up arrows, unless scum have a way of altering results (scum godfather not having a gun, not all scum seen as moving in a given night. Just thinking the words "bus driver" make my head hurt).

If I had to guess, based on my chart (almost) alone, I'd go with a scum team of Budja, Cuetlachtli, and Hoopla. But that's about 5% based on things actually said/done in-thread, meaning I really need to re-read and get a better grip on things. [For the curious, that 5% is that Budja giving his results after DisgruntledSean. Since they both investigated the same person, it would be easier for Budja to be faking results than DisgruntledSean.]


All I know is that I'm not scum, and lynching me today could very well end the game with a town loss.

[WingsOWisdom]

Right now, I'm leaning towards a Budja lynch today.

WingsOWisdom, Cuetlachtli are the un-investigated, non-PR's.

You're not counting Cuetlachtli as investigated?

No offense, but it seems like there's a lot that Budja has forgot/missed recently:
1) Investigating Cuetlachtli (heck, Budja was the one who investigated Cuetlachtli)
2) DisgruntledSean's N2 results
3) That Hoopla as an FBI agent would have a gun, thus DisgruntledSean won't be able to tell if she's telling the truth or not
4) What day DisgruntledSean claimed

[WingsOWisdom]

1. missed snow's night action

Wait, even after we reviewed that DisgruntledSean did indeed claim on Day 1 (so it would be logic for one of our two doctors to protect him N1), and Snow White both stated in intention to protect DisgruntledSean in her softclaim (322) and confirmed that she did indeed protect DisgruntledSean the next morning (353), you still missed Snow White's night action? I mean, I know you admitted to skimming, but you're missing some pretty important information there.

Not reading is starting to feel like a scum tell when it seems like it's just an excuse to cover up poor logic.

Vote: Budja

I think it is likely that Hypo-scum buddies Budja and WoW have coasted these past two days while hypo-town has tunneled hypo-town.

Are you accusing me of coasting, or simply stating that, if scum, it would be in my advantage to sit back and watch town players lynch other town players? I can't tell which part of the sentence "I think it is likely" applies to: "hypo-scum buddies" or "have coasted."

Budja and WoW have displayed poor knowledge of the thread.

Budja, yes. Me, not so much. You'll have to present some examples, because I don't believe I've done anything that "displayed poor knowledge."

[WingsOWisdom]

Your Hypo-Scum team theory just doesn't fit. Though Budja has said I am town various times, Budja and Hoopla have suspected each other the most. I suspected Hoopla a lot on Day 2, and she thought I was scummy for that.

Right, and your proposed scum teams make much more sense because they're all people who aren't accusing each other of being scummy. Oh wait... By your logic, Budja and I can't be scum together, because I'm currently voting for Budja, and he's been supporting my lynch since Day 2.

Just because two people are openly accusing each other in the thread doesn't mean that they can't be scum together. But I think you already knew that.


As for Budja saying you are town various times, I went back to see just how much Budja has pushed this, and I noticed something interesting. For reference:

I believe that at most 1 PR could be lying (Hoopla if anyone ) making at least two of these players scum:
WingsOWisdom
cruelty
Sotty
don_johnson
Cuetlachtli

Cue is

not

cleared as mafia. He is cleared as Mafia PR or SK.

Well, Cue is town.
...
@Spy, "weak tracker", but note this:

note that I randomize night actions if a player flakes at night

So, Cue is very,very likely vanilla even if scum.

Well, we know Cue to be powerless, Sotty and don to not be SK/scum respectively.
(unless we have a scum busdriver or similar, PR is scum, etc)

ATM I'm most happy with lynching Wings with Sotty #2.
Cuetlachtli and Hoopla are the other poss. scum by elimination.

WingsOWisdom, Cuetlachtli are the un-investigated, non-PR's. There is a possibility that DS was redirected so Sotty is less cleared than Don.

I still see Cue's questioning as town and I still prefer a Wings lynch.

vote: Wings

followed by Cue, Hoopla.

Cue's aggressive stances as well as his constant questioning make him look town.

Feh Cue is vanilla but not cleared.

The trend I'm noticing here is that when discussing whether you seem more like town or mafia, Budja tends to lean towards town (while also emphasizing that his investigation of you is

not

an indicator of mafia/not mafia), as you noted. But when making a list of who he wants to vote for, you're right on the cusp. The impression I get is that Budja is trying to make it look like he supports lynching you without actually voting that way. Sort of like procrastination, it's an effective way of saying "I'm going to do that" without out actually doing anything.


But I think Don_johnson's vote was the hammer, so we'll see if we're right.