Open 209: The Invasion of Liten (Game Over)

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Ald

First thing I noticed, you've FoS'd and/or voted:
Haylen
horrordude0215 (Furry)
Max
Sniper
Me
Slaxx
and Puli
So basically you've FoS'd every living person except for SPS and Nikanor, and no dead person. This is making me ve-ry uneasy about you. Also at the end of Day 1 you wuzzled around carefully not making cases on anyone but being "unhappy" with prime lynch targets. I am not surprised that you are still alive toDay.

What is making you uneasy exactly? That he hasn't FoSed/voted dead people?

I agree with Max's assessment that if he was trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence, he would have killed Furry. The conclusion I draw here is that if Max is scum, Furry is probably his partner.

I really think you're going too far in your NK analysis here. It is hard to know what the scum are thinking. Maybe the scum group is Max+Townie-looking person and they decided they'd rather try to nail an opposing scumbag, thereby distracting the town from Max and helping Townie-looking person survive. Determining who a scum group would kill is a highly non-trivial matter.

Me

I was actually surprised that I wasn't nightkilled because a very large number of people have me down as being one of their towniest reads, barring themselves. The only reason I can think that I would have survived is if either 1. scum was aiming for opposing scum or 2. I was chasing the wrong people yesterday.

Or 3. they did not want to kill the same person as the other scum group or 4. they knew that you tended to do NK analysis, so kept you alive so that you would implicate the wrong person. I can probably think of more possible reasons if I saw any reason to. You're being a bit short-sighted here.

SPS

Max is "#2 suspect"
Also suspicious of Haylen and it's hard for me to glean what his #1 suspect was?

Nicodemus!

[SFG]

What is making you uneasy exactly? That he hasn't FoSed/voted dead people?

The fact that he threw mostly ungrounded suspicion at almost everyone, and the few people he left out died. So basically he had "prior support" to lynch any one of the living people today, depending on which way the wind blows.

I really think you're going too far in your NK analysis here. It is hard to know what the scum are thinking. Maybe the scum group is Max+Townie-looking person and they decided they'd rather try to nail an opposing scumbag, thereby distracting the town from Max and helping Townie-looking person survive. Determining who a scum group would kill is a highly non-trivial matter.

Actually if you'll notice, I said "If Max was trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence" not "because Max would be trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence." Meaning I did consider the other possibility.

Furthermore, steady, backwards-looking analysis is exactly the kind of scumhunting that I do at lylo because I don't want to make a mistake and because it works. And until someone can prove to me that this scumhunting of mine DOESN'T work, since thus far every single time I've done this kind I have tagged every remaining scum and only scum (100% accuracy), I'm gonna stick with it. kthnxbai.

Or 3. they did not want to kill the same person as the other scum group or 4. they knew that you tended to do NK analysis, so kept you alive so that you would implicate the wrong person. I can probably think of more possible reasons if I saw any reason to. You're being a bit short-sighted here.

I don't honestly believe that any player here does that much homework, and even Nikanor only knows my IRC meta, which does NOT involve NK analysis. As for 3, I again doubt that scum would consider that at this point in the game. They are floundering with the same knowledge of the other scum group that the town has.

If I may, the people I expected to possibly die last night were myself, Puli, or Nikanor if scum was trying to target town and Sniper, Max, or crypto if scum was trying to target scum, in that order.

Also suspicious of Haylen and it's hard for me to glean what his #1 suspect was?

Nicodemus!

Ah, the guy who flipped town. Got it.

Geez, don't you guys ever get shaken up when you realize your reads have been wrong? :/

[Furry]

Geez, don't you guys ever get shaken up when you realize your reads have been wrong? :/

I have had a few "wait no im completely wrong" reactions, but those actually occur more in the middle of the day then anything else. This isnt one of those scenarios though, and im still comfortable with my read.

[Slaxx]

I'm glad you guys value my opinions, but last week was spring break so I'm going to be busier for 8 more weeks. I asked today off (no not for this, don't flatter yourselves) so let's get this done. You guys have to take me to get ice cream afterwards though, or I'll ask the mod to delete my post.

Actually I really don't have too much more too say....My cases on anyone who is not dead yesterday should still stand. Pulindar has dropped rapidly on my town tells. Especially with his last post. Because I FoSed him, he's going to ISO me? Wut? And then ISO Sniper...Like theres anything there TO ISO. He's constantly putting off reads and tunneling on Sniper. And ISO 49 gives it away. Its like a guilty conscience thing....Where did I ever mention him in my posts? Anyway, his cases in ISO 45 are more policy lynches than cases. He's actually a big FoS of mine, looking into his ISO. That post about ISOing me really bugs me, maybe because its targeted at me admittedly, but moreso because he had never expressed any concern about me prior to this. In fact, last time I checked, I was one of his town reads. It's like an OMGUS FoS.

Then of course Haylen. Ive already expressed a legitmate concern for her lack of scumhunting, and the post where she deflects concern off of her and tries to push votes onto Nico just blows my mind. Why are more people not conerned about this? Why is she getting a free ride?

[Alduskkel]

So basically you've FoS'd every living person except for SPS and Nikanor, and no dead person. This is making me ve-ry uneasy about you. Also at the end of Day 1 you wuzzled around carefully not making cases on anyone but being "unhappy" with prime lynch targets. I am not surprised that you are still alive toDay.

Big deal. Everyone commits scum tells, even townies. If not, then scum tells would be 100% accurate, which they are generally not. Couple that with the fact that I've been FoSing anyone who commits anything above a small scum tell and you get a boatload of FoSes. I also do not recall being particularly unhappy with the lynch candidates (Sniper and Nicodemus, I presume), although I would have liked to see if Nicodemus would have done anything differently on Day 2.

New list of scum suspects: Ald, Furry, Nikanor, SPS
Actually, Ald, you lucky bastard, I was trying to decide whether it would be more productive to vote for you or for Nikanor today and realized I was already voting you. So you get to keep my vote

So, is that list in order? Because, if so, you should have been deciding between me and Furry, not me and Nikanor.

What is making you uneasy exactly? That he hasn't FoSed/voted dead people?

The fact that he threw mostly ungrounded suspicion at almost everyone, and the few people he left out died. So basically he had "prior support" to lynch any one of the living people today, depending on which way the wind blows.

Ungrounded? That's just slander. When have any of my statements been ungrounded?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

What is making you uneasy exactly? That he hasn't FoSed/voted dead people?

The fact that he threw mostly ungrounded suspicion at almost everyone, and the few people he left out died. So basically he had "prior support" to lynch any one of the living people today, depending on which way the wind blows.

I just ISOed him and I really think you're overstating the importance of his FoSes.

I really think you're going too far in your NK analysis here. It is hard to know what the scum are thinking. Maybe the scum group is Max+Townie-looking person and they decided they'd rather try to nail an opposing scumbag, thereby distracting the town from Max and helping Townie-looking person survive. Determining who a scum group would kill is a highly non-trivial matter.

Actually if you'll notice, I said "If Max was trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence" not "because Max would be trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence." Meaning I did consider the other possibility.

I noticed. I presented that scenario to illustrate my point that it is hard to figure out what the scum are thinking and thus, that you were going too far in concluding that Maxscum implied a FurryMax pairing.

Furthermore, steady, backwards-looking analysis is exactly the kind of scumhunting that I do at lylo because I don't want to make a mistake and because it works. And until someone can prove to me that this scumhunting of mine DOESN'T work, since thus far every single time I've done this kind I have tagged every remaining scum and only scum (100% accuracy), I'm gonna stick with it. kthnxbai.

I'll give you an example of it failing in Himalayan Mafia.

What I'm thinking here is that creampuffeater was very unlikely to avoid the lynch with Fuldu still alive. Ignoring all the WIFOM, creampuffeaterscum would absolutely be in a better position, with a vocal opponent gone. Any other scum would be down a vocal opponent of someone else and down the possibility that they both would be lynched due to Fuldu's strong suspicions. Even if this nightkill would lead to a creampuffeaterlynch, that lynch was likely to happen even without this nightkill and this nightkill is taking away a possible follow-up in the form of a Fuldulynch. All in all, I think this most certainly is a real argument against creampuffeater.

As it turned out, the final remaining scum, MBL, hadn't even considered Fuldu's suspicion of cpe and just killed him for being an experienced player. MBL probably made the wrong choice, but that's probably not that uncommon. You may feel, for example, that a Max-Haylen pairing should have killed Furry, but they don't have to agree with you at all. I disagree with Max on a whole range of issues regarding playstyle, so I'm certainly not going to assume he decides who to kill in the same way as I would.

Or 3. they did not want to kill the same person as the other scum group or 4. they knew that you tended to do NK analysis, so kept you alive so that you would implicate the wrong person. I can probably think of more possible reasons if I saw any reason to. You're being a bit short-sighted here.

I don't honestly believe that any player here does that much homework, and even Nikanor only knows my IRC meta, which does NOT involve NK analysis. As for 3, I again doubt that scum would consider that at this point in the game. They are floundering with the same knowledge of the other scum group that the town has.

I'm not saying they're probable, but they're definitely possible.

It's like an OMGUS FoS.

OMGUS FoSes are awesome. On a more serious note, I agree that him planning to ISO you specifically is weird, I'd like to know what he was thinking there. He really hasn't contributed enough Today.

Pulindar, what do you think of Max?

[SFG]

Big deal. Everyone commits scum tells, even townies. If not, then scum tells would be 100% accurate, which they are generally not.

I just ISOed him and I really think you're overstating the importance of his FoSes.

Y'know your arguments look more convincing if the pair of you don't try to make two different cover-ups at the same time :P

So, is that list in order? Because, if so, you should have been deciding between me and Furry, not me and Nikanor.

I clarified that already.

Ungrounded? That's just slander. When have any of my statements been ungrounded?

You FoS'd the entire world for not posting enough on the first day of the first Day, because OBVIOUSLY if everyone hasn't racked up 4 posts by the end of the first day they are scum. You FoS'd Puli for being friendly because obviously all townies are mean and nasty because that helps them find scum? Voting Sniper at least actually made sense. You FoS'd me for my meta. You FoS'd Slaxx for reaction-testing, a form of scum hunting. Cus scumhunting is so antitown. Dumping suspicion on Nico I guess also made sense although I was never a fan of the Nico wagon.

And you're trying to tell me that THAT was all "good scumhunting"? Switching your suspicions around like hot potatoes, your only two reasonable cases from yesterday are basically "yeah Sniper or Nico should die because of what everyone else said" and you expect me to look at you and NOT see scum?

[SFG]

I noticed. I presented that scenario to illustrate my point that it is hard to figure out what the scum are thinking and thus, that you were going too far in concluding that Maxscum implied a FurryMax pairing.

And I stated why I thought the alternate scenario was improbable.

I'll give you an example of it failing in Himalayan Mafia.

Actually if you'll look, I said "of mine" not "of whoever's." And it does take some common sense to figure out what level of WIFOM the scum was operating on when they made the NK, which is I suppose why NK analysis is so unpopular around here.

I'm not saying they're probable, but they're definitely possible.

I need to find a confluence somewhere where all the hints I've gathered come together. This isn't a final list btw, in case you were wondering.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Big deal. Everyone commits scum tells, even townies. If not, then scum tells would be 100% accurate, which they are generally not.

I just ISOed him and I really think you're overstating the importance of his FoSes.

Y'know your arguments look more convincing if the pair of you don't try to make two different cover-ups at the same time

If you had also included Alduskkel's next sentence,

Couple that with the fact that I've been FoSing anyone who commits anything above a small scum tell and you get a boatload of FoSes.

I think it becomes much clearer. The way I read his posts is that he FoSes liberally. You almost seem to be interpreting them as weak votes.

I noticed. I presented that scenario to illustrate my point that it is hard to figure out what the scum are thinking and thus, that you were going too far in concluding that Maxscum implied a FurryMax pairing.

And I stated why I thought the alternate scenario was improbable.

Did you? I can't find it.

I'll give you an example of it failing in Himalayan Mafia.

Actually if you'll look, I said "of mine" not "of whoever's." And it does take some common sense to figure out what level of WIFOM the scum was operating on when they made the NK, which is I suppose why NK analysis is so unpopular around here.

It didn't fail because of WIFOM considerations, it failed because the scum had a very different view of the game than I did, which is a trap anyone can fall for. I do believe in NK analysis, I just think you're overestimating its usefulness, probably because it's worked so well for you in the past.

[SFG]

Did you? I can't find it.

I don't honestly believe that any player here does that much homework, and even Nikanor only knows my IRC meta, which does NOT involve NK analysis. As for 3, I again doubt that scum would consider that at this point in the game. They are floundering with the same knowledge of the other scum group that the town has.

It didn't fail because of WIFOM considerations, it failed because the scum had a very different view of the game than I did, which is a trap anyone can fall for. I do believe in NK analysis, I just think you're overestimating its usefulness, probably because it's worked so well for you in the past.

If I read your example correctly, you analyzed the NK on the grounds that someone you weren't expecting to die died, and you assumed that was because his arguments were on-track because scum was the kind of person who would kill off threats to them, but what actually happened is scum was the kind of person to kill off experienced players regardless of whatever threat they may have posed. Therefore you analyzed the kill one level of WIFOM higher than it was actually at. Does this make sense?

[SFG]

oh whoops, forgot to address this in my previous post.

[quote="SPS]
I think it becomes much clearer. The way I read his posts is that he FoSes liberally. You almost seem to be interpreting them as weak votes. [/quote]
I have never seen a FoS used as anything other than either a warning that a vote may be soon incoming or a secondary vote target. Are you suggesting that there is any other reason to FoS?

[Slaxx]

Interesting stuff. Lets see what Max, Pulindar, ad Al think of all this.

[Haylen]

Slaxx has clear logical posts. He is actively scumhunting and trying to catch scum. He has been faily active all game. I can't really fault his logic - the calling me scum thing is getting annoying though. But his opinions have reflected his votes and I don't believe he has tunneled anyone this game. I do however find it weird that he only started being really active and scumhunting when I said he was one of the most pro-town people to me at the time. It is like he is trying to play up to it and keep suspicions off him. This may be the cause for my gut feeling telling me that he is scum now. Remember that scum want to scumhunt too, to ensure that they can eliminate the other scum faction.

[Alduskkel]

There's an easier way to get through all this. Let's find all of my FoSes.

Need more content from:
Haylen
horrordude0215
Max
Sniper

FoS: All of them. Haylen gets the vote for active lurking.

FoS: Pulindar. Guess why. I'll give you a hint, it starts with a B and rhymes with muddying.

I've already said lurking is a scum tell.

At the time

I'd say all of those 4 people fit the bill. I don't think I need to explain Sniper and Haylen's presence on that list. horrordude0215 and Max simply hadn't racked up many posts at the time.

If you disagree with my Pulindar FoS then go back and read that post and tell me with a straight internet face that Pulindar wasn't being disturbingly friendly.

And by the way, if you think that a FoS is a warning that I might someone soon, then I can't imagine what you thought of this post. Did you think I was a quintuple voter?

im not going to vote Max because it could be misconstrued as OMGUS

vote:SPS

Eh? If you suspect Max, vote for him! Are you so worried about looking scummy that you'll refuse to vote for one of your suspects?

FoS: SFG

.

This is still a valid point against you SFG. I haven't followed up on it since you've been pro-Town otherwise. Your defense was basically a meta defense -- I don't mind that, but you a) pointed out that you often look scummy, so me finding you scummy shouldn't surprise you and b) you said that early on "do not let yourself be lynched" was a priority for you, which is a scum's way of thinking.

That being said, every game I've been in usually winds up being a policy lynch D1 due to on Village Idiot, but as you know from another game keeping them around for D2 so they can fake claim doc as townie...cough...is more troublesome for town anyway. This being said, I will vote sniper to L-1

This doesn't apply at all. NO ONE is going to claim Doctor in this game, at least not seriously. Don't care if the person is a complete VI, they won't seriously fake claim Doctor. Plus this seems like a pretty weak case. It sounds like you just want to policy lynch Sniper actually. Not a very good L-1 vote.

FoS: Slaxx

.

You FoS'd Slaxx for reaction-testing, a form of scum hunting.

No, I FoSed him for what I considered to be a hasty L-1 vote that looked like bandwagoning to me.

Anyway, that actually covers it all. I haven't FoSed anyone since March 2nd either.

[Haylen]

Another Haylen Vote Count

(4) Max: Steam-Powered Shovel, Furry, Nikanor, Sniper
(2) Sniper: Pulindar, Haylen
(3) Haylen: Alduskkel, Slaxx,
(1) Furry: Max
(1) Alduskell: SFG

Not Voting:

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline: March 27th, 2010, at 8:00 p.m. CST

~ Prodding SaintKerrigan.

[SFG]

I've already said lurking is a scum tell.

At the time

I'd say all of those 4 people fit the bill. I don't think I need to explain Sniper and Haylen's presence on that list. horrordude0215 and Max simply hadn't racked up many posts at the time.

And I'm telling you that was like...what, 27 hours after Day started? Oh noes, only posted three times within 27 hours thats like *gasp* ONLY ONE POST EVERY 9 HOURS how incredibly scummy.

If you disagree with my Pulindar FoS then go back and read that post and tell me with a straight internet face that Pulindar wasn't being disturbingly friendly.

I do believe I just did that in my last post. I honestly don't see anything scummy there and I don't think anyone but you did either.

And by the way, if you think that a FoS is a warning that I might someone soon, then I can't imagine what you thought of this post. Did you think I was a quintuple voter?

No, I think you were leaving your options open for whichever vote was most convenient for you to take.

This is still a valid point against you SFG. I haven't followed up on it since you've been pro-Town otherwise. Your defense was basically a meta defense -- I don't mind that, but you a) pointed out that you often look scummy, so me finding you scummy shouldn't surprise you and b) you said that early on "do not let yourself be lynched" was a priority for you, which is a scum's way of thinking.

The point is that I firmly believe that one of the most disrespectful things I can do to my town is to make them waste a lynch on me. Nico is in absolute disgrace for breaking that rule right now. At any rate, if you try and tell me that as town, my policy should be to get myself lynched, I am going to smack you with a giant salmon. Therefore I still don't see what it scummy about me stating this.

No, I FoSed him for what I considered to be a hasty L-1 vote that looked like bandwagoning to me.

Which he said was reaction testing. Which is townie. Also if you think about it for perhaps three seconds, any player that was stupid enough to hammer that would get instalynched the next day (barring a scum flip), meaning that it also could have easily been a scumtrap which is ALSO townie.

And yes, I did notice that you stopped FoS'ing after you'd FoS'd everyone once or twice. Not that it makes that any better.

[Max]

I'll post properly tomorrow.

[SFG]

wtb activity

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Did you? I can't find it.

I don't honestly believe that any player here does that much homework, and even Nikanor only knows my IRC meta, which does NOT involve NK analysis. As for 3, I again doubt that scum would consider that at this point in the game. They are floundering with the same knowledge of the other scum group that the town has.

That was about you, we were talking about Max.

It didn't fail because of WIFOM considerations, it failed because the scum had a very different view of the game than I did, which is a trap anyone can fall for. I do believe in NK analysis, I just think you're overestimating its usefulness, probably because it's worked so well for you in the past.

If I read your example correctly, you analyzed the NK on the grounds that someone you weren't expecting to die died, and you assumed that was because his arguments were on-track because scum was the kind of person who would kill off threats to them, but what actually happened is scum was the kind of person to kill off experienced players regardless of whatever threat they may have posed. Therefore you analyzed the kill one level of WIFOM higher than it was actually at. Does this make sense?

There was no WIFOM involved. The scumbag never took into account Fuldu's suspicion of cpe. That's the fundamental point, I was thinking "Ok, Fuldu's very suspicious of cpe, who would want to kill him?" whereas the scum was thinking "hey, I'm doing pretty well, let's kill off experienced players who might catch me later, let's say Fuldu".

I have never seen a FoS used as anything other than either a warning that a vote may be soon incoming or a secondary vote target. Are you suggesting that there is any other reason to FoS?

I have seen it used as a shorthand for "I find this suspicious" plenty of times and that's how I use FoSes too. It needn't indicate long-term suspicion.

[Slaxx]

Slaxx has clear logical posts. He is actively scumhunting and trying to catch scum. He has been faily active all game. I can't really fault his logic - the calling me scum thing is getting annoying though. But his opinions have reflected his votes and I don't believe he has tunneled anyone this game. I do however find it weird that he only started being really active and scumhunting when I said he was one of the most pro-town people to me at the time. It is like he is trying to play up to it and keep suspicions off him. This may be the cause for my gut feeling telling me that he is scum now. Remember that scum want to scumhunt too, to ensure that they can eliminate the other scum faction.

Bunch of things wrong with this post. I'll count.

1) If its getting annoying, try rebuttling intelligently.
2) Please quote the instance where I started playing up to my 'towniness'. I believe I had already posted three or four detailed reads on people before you called me town.
3) The too townie fallacy + something I can't help. What you're saying here is that since I am pro town, and someone called me protown, and I continue to be protown, I must be playing up to the role, and that makes me scum. The heck of it is, you're the one who called me town.
4) I feel like this in addition to Puli's comment this is a cheap OMGUS FoS against me that has no real base and has only been placed because I voted you. If you had concerns, why wait until I vote you to start bringing them up?

[SFG]

That was about you, we were talking about Max.

You lost me.

There was no WIFOM involved. The scumbag never took into account Fuldu's suspicion of cpe. That's the fundamental point, I was thinking "Ok, Fuldu's very suspicious of cpe, who would want to kill him?" whereas the scum was thinking "hey, I'm doing pretty well, let's kill off experienced players who might catch me later, let's say Fuldu".

Thats exactly what I just said. Because you attributed one more level of WIFOM than was present, you got it wrong. There was no intended WIFOM, but you used one level of WIFOM in your analysis. Which is why you were wrong.

[Slaxx]

SFG, I'm a little worried about two posts of yours. During my back and forth with Haylen (I think I've had several now) you kind of come to her defense a little too strongly for my comfort. If Haylen flips town (Not really feeling that right now) then they won't bug me quite as much.

One was about some sort of emotional thing, and then one was about the gut read thing. I'm going to go back and ISO vote counts now, because what people do is 10x as meaningful as what people say. It could easily be a null tell, but I'll have to dig them up and see what I think.

[Slaxx]

Reading the SFG/SPS argument I think its kind of strayed away off into another universe. I'll have to pick out anything I find disturbing, but I want them to finish first.

[Slaxx]

Nothing after rereading votes.

[SFG]

SFG, I'm a little worried about two posts of yours. During my back and forth with Haylen (I think I've had several now) you kind of come to her defense a little too strongly for my comfort.

??? I haven't been defending Haylen at all, I've just been looking for scum and I found four people I think are likely to be scum and Haylen wasn't one of them. I really don't see where this over-the-top defense accusation is coming from.