Mini 932: Let's all be friends (Over)

[SpyreX]

Macho doc can't be protected. Which is why I believed SW (without another protective role my role is silly)

[Hoopla]

...
I, too, am a macho doc. Which made no sense without the existence of another protective role. SW's claming doc, and macho specifically, makes me buy it.

Hey, who did you protect?

This is a good result for town, I think, as Snow and Spyre have essentially crossconfirmed each other, or are scum together putting all their eggs in one basket, which seems very unlikely from the way it has unfolded. The role is way too uncommon for Snow to pick it out of the bag and be fortunate enough to have Spyre there to confirm her. The only other possibility I can think of is Spyre taking advantage of a roleclaim that he can get a solid fakeclaim in on, but again, this is also very unlikely, because he wouldn't know if there are other doc roles to contradict him.

I'm quite content believing both of Snow/Spyre - it seems like a probable set-up quirk (I actually kind of like it, it's clever).

[SpyreX]

SW

I didn't see the crumb so I assumed NORMAL doc and well.

[Hoopla]

SW

I didn't see the crumb so I assumed NORMAL doc and well.

Oh yeah, duh!

On to business;

Vote: Budja

[SpyreX]

And, yea, of course thats part of the believing the gunsmith claim too.

So, lock on.

[Cuetlachtli]

Errrr.......hey!

So I haven't finished reading yet, but while I am reading I want to do some speculating about the setup.

Now I have only played 2 games on this site, 1 newbie and 1 mini normal like this one.

I am going to assume that each mini normal game, except ones with Serial Killers, have three scum bags in them. If that is the case, if all three scum bags are powerless goons, is it safe to assume that the town consists of vanillas? If a goon army can safely assume that they are facing a vanilla team, wouldn't there be added incentive for the scum bags to fake claim knowing that they won't get counter-claimed?

I guess what I am trying to get at is can we completely trust Spy, SW's, and DS's PR claims right now?

I have noticed that some of you have played 20+ games on this site so your experience would greatly be appreciated in answering my question.

[SpyreX]

Chances are higher than not there are power roles.

You're either an absolute genius at being coy scum or, like it appears, a pretty much confirmed in my head vanilla town.

I like that. A lot.

Narrow the pool and watch the fishes choke on it.

[Hoopla]

I am going to assume that each mini normal game, except ones with Serial Killers, have three scum bags in them. If that is the case, if all three scum bags are powerless goons, is it safe to assume that the town consists of vanillas? If a goon army can safely assume that they are facing a vanilla team, wouldn't there be added incentive for the scum bags to fake claim knowing that they won't get counter-claimed?

I guess what I am trying to get at is can we completely trust Spy, SW's, and DS's PR claims right now?

If you want to play the balance game, here is a frequency of the commonly used 12 player closed set-ups. As it's likely we have two doctors, it's hard to know if we have another killing faction in the game before a night happens with two kills, but I give it better than even odds we're playing in a 3:9 set-up. The thing that makes me pause is the gunsmith role, which could be used in conjunction with an SK to give it investigation immunity - but that seems like a longshot.

Unless it has been confirmed beyond doubt, and there are no realistic sinister explanations for a player to claim a certain role, you can never trust a role claim. The fact is though, Snow White claimed a protection role on Day 1, and if she was scum, this would have been a huge risk not knowing if there is a doctor in the game. Many games have doctors, which makes it tough to believe Snow would fakeclaim something like that. Then having it confirmed by SpyreX adds credibility to the claims.

Gunsmith sort of fits with Macho Doctors, as they're relatively obscure but not overly powerful roles. And when you consider the claim came from a newbie fresh to the site, it seems way more likely it is his role, rather than a fakeclaim. No offense to Sean, but he has been quite inept so far, that I doubt he has the ability to make such a good fakeclaim first game in.

The annoying thing is, it can also be a viable scum tactic to leave claimed PR's alive (especially doctors) to incriminate them for mislynches. But if all these claims are true, it makes it increasingly more difficult for scum to play this game due to it being potentially damaging if they don't get rid of them before endgame. This could be easily thwarted by a possible Mafia Roleblocker, or even a mafia role that comes up without a gun (maybe a Priest) - I think your assumption of a goon army isn't reasonable, as it's quite common these days for a scumteam to have another power other than their group kill.

~~

I guess to answer your question directly - there is no reason to disbelieve them now, because the claims make sense, fit together nicely, and will potentially soak up NK's meaning we don't have to consider lynching them. I think it's likelier scum are in the remaining pool of candidates, which is where we should be lynching, because it's improved odds of scum, and doesn't carry the risk of getting rid of potential town power.

[SpyreX]

Budja
WingsOWisdom
cruelty
Sotty
don_johnson

I'm positive (assuming 9:3) there are two in there. Faiirly certain we'd see all 3.

So, yea. Fish in a barrel time.

[DisgruntledSean]

that hurts hoopla
i went into this blind, don't have time for the hours and hours of research to be up to speed at the moment

i investigated DJ, and got no gun

[Hoopla]

that hurts hoopla
i went into this blind, don't have time for the hours and hours of research to be up to speed at the moment

Sorry, didn't mean to be offensive. If anything, being so easy to read will help improve the town's chances of winning!

Hug?

[Cuetlachtli]

that hurts hoopla
i went into this blind, don't have time for the hours and hours of research to be up to speed at the moment

i investigated DJ, and got no gun

That is interesting because DJ is my number 1 FOS since there were many instances of possible "deflection" during the Iceman wagon. I think its possible that DJ could be a godfather-like role like a "Gun Inventor," thus the added incentive for scum to protect him.

[SpyreX]

Cue:

Are you saying you disbelieve the report because Sean is scum?
Or are you saying you disbelieve the report because DJ is a Godfather?

[Cuetlachtli]

Cue:

Are you saying you disbelieve the report because Sean is scum?
Or are you saying you disbelieve the report because DJ is a Godfather?

Eh...unless someone else claims a PR, I am going to assume that you, SW, and Sean are legit town.

That said, I think DJ could be a possible Godfather-type role based on what could have been "deflection" tactics during the Iceman wagon.

Does that make sense Spy?

[SpyreX]

Yes it does. Just making sure I wasn't losing my mind.

Operating under the "no Godfather" clause on that result right now I'm happy with my vote.

[Budja]

Yeah I believe this claim as well.
And yes, my activity since thread opening has been rubbish but I have had quite limited net time.
---

Now this may be stupid, but with two docs alive, and as a possible lynch target I will claim now.
I am a motion detector (I detect night actions not targets). I think it is v. unlikely that we have more PRs so I feel save in saying that TeWuicah performed no action last night.

---
I believe all past claims BTW. I have a lot of trouble believe the docs to be performing a gambit and gunsmith is also an odd role.

[Budja]

That's safe not save. Pardon my dyslexia .

[SpyreX]

...

A bit early, but I'll nibble.

Does that mean its MASSCLAIM TIME.

It just might. Let me think about it.

[Hoopla]

Budja, why claim rather than try and defend yourself, or actually scumhunt?

I don't see how this information is more beneficial to town than scum, as you've now outed Cuetlachtli as probably powerless.

Also, I think I'd be open to massclaim talks seeing as most of our powerroles are out in the open anyway. We may as well box scum into fakeclaims early to minimise their options. Thoughts?

[SpyreX]

In fact, there's a funny parallel there that I think requires MASSCLAIM TIME

P.S. I'm about 90% sure we've got a scum roleblocker or busdriver.
P.S.S. If we hit him today I'm about 85% sure we win.

Cruelty: Claim

[Budja]

I don't plan to stay useless. I have more time to play now.
I feel it likely I am the last PR and claiming reduces the pool and saves me from doing some hole-digging which I am uncannily skilled in doing at times like this.

Anyway, I think a mass-claim would be fine. I doubt there is any more power anyway.

[SpyreX]

@Hoop:

This is a good thing. If Cue had claimed a PR I'd have wanted him lynched. This helps confirm my position.

[Budja]

^ Like Spyrex's post there BTW.

[Budja]

I meant post 394. Simulpost .

[Budja]

Also with a mass claim I become more powerful and DS and me are virtually both cops. So yeah, I like it.