Mini 932: Let's all be friends (Over)

[julienvonwolfe]

Vote Count No. 15

WingsOWisdom (1) - Hoopla

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Not Voting: Cuetlachtli, DisgruntledSean, don_johnson, WingsOWisdom, Sotty7, Budja, Snow White, Hoopla, Cruelty, Spyrex

Prodding Wings.

Deadline

[don_johnson]

back, will post tonight. quick skim alerts me to the fact we may have a masslcaim going on? and yes. i do not have a gun. things are looking up, no?

[SpyreX]

Because... I'm not a normal doc?

I'm a macho doc.

[cruelty]

What

you

are is irrelevant.

[julienvonwolfe]

Mod note and apologies: I will be V/LA over Easter until about the middle of the week, NZT. I may be able to get on and post a votecount but it's unlikely.

In terms of deadlines, if Wings needs to be replaced I'll give an extension as I did before.

[SpyreX]

... No, thats totally relevant.

My role either a.) is a red herring or b.) inherently means there is another protective role in the game.

SW claiming doc made me think b. Claiming macho doc directly either means this was a clever rolecop (doubtful) or she is in fact a macho doc.

[cruelty]

This isn't about you, therefore what you actually are isn't relevant. What Hoopla thinks you are is.


Hoopla says it's unlikely you'd claim macho doc because you were unaware of other doc roles (therefore you're not taking advantage of a roleclaim to fakeclaim, and must be town).

You say you thought SW was normal doc (which in my mind means the likelihood of there being other protective roles = close enough to zero to be negligible.



If you thought SW was normal doc, then there's every likelihood you're taking advantage of her claim (because why would there be other docs?) to support your fakeclaim (as Hoopla is worried about). Whether you are or not is irrelevant (to this particular point), the fact that she hasn't pursued it is what concerns me.

[WingsOWisdom]

Wow, sorry everybody. I've got a bunch to catch up on now, but in the mean time, it looks like you're waiting for a claim from me? I'm a vanilla townie.

[SpyreX]

431 no matter how I read it doesn't make sense.

Who's the scum?

[cruelty]

I'm voting scum.

And yeah, re-reading that in the light of day (and the grip of a hangover), it doesn't make a heap of sense.

[Budja]

Glad its not just me .
Your turn Sotty.

(I was beginning to think it odd that cruelty did his big hoopla attacking post then said no more. I think this makes me feel a bit better (although confused) on that front)

[Sotty7]

Townie too.

Hoopla! Enlighten us all please.

[SpyreX]

Lets wait for Hoopla to do his bidness before I get into some serious questions.

[Hoopla]

This isn't about you, therefore what you actually are isn't relevant. What Hoopla thinks you are is.


Hoopla says it's unlikely you'd claim macho doc because you were unaware of other doc roles (therefore you're not taking advantage of a roleclaim to fakeclaim, and must be town).

You say you thought SW was normal doc (which in my mind means the likelihood of there being other protective roles = close enough to zero to be negligible.



If you thought SW was normal doc, then there's every likelihood you're taking advantage of her claim (because why would there be other docs?) to support your fakeclaim (as Hoopla is worried about). Whether you are or not is irrelevant (to this particular point), the fact that she hasn't pursued it is what concerns me.

Why is my view of SpyreX relevant if you think what he is irrelevant? Am I missing something here?

I'll run through the logic of why SpyreX's claim is probably true;

- Snow claims a protection role late on Day 1
- SpyreX derails that wagon by claiming he has reason to believe the claim is true.
- Next day Snow claims Macho doctor, which is when SpyreX comes out too.
- For SpyreX to be taking advantage of Snow's claim, the breadcrumb from yesterday needs to be fabricated, which I doubt he would have committed himself to if scum.
- Macho Doctor implies that there must be some other protection role out there. What is the point in having a doctor that can't be protected, if there is nobody else to protect her?
- The way SpyreX and Snow's claims match up make sense, espcially since nobody else has claimed a protection role.

If he assumed normal doc, then it's reasonable (per your above quote) to suspect his claim isn't legit (as why would town have more than one normal doc?). Seems odd to me that you let this slide.

I'm not actually that suspicious of Spyrex, I'm not a huge fan of his letting Hoopla slide for something that in my eyes isn't really significant at all (I'd consider her pushing Budja's wagon over a confirmed townie to be less noteworthy than her almost complete lack of offence throughout the entire game) but I think the villain in this weird dynamic the two of them have got going on is Hoopla.

I also think the claim thing is a little odd but I guess we'll see what happens there. I don't really see the point of breadcrumbing when there's only two players left to claim (and statistically I'd expect them to likely be vt given we've had 3 power roles + one [Hoopla] presumed).

THIS IS A RIDICULOUS REASON TO SUSPECT ME.

- You're suspicious of

me

because I didn't pick up on a detail that you deem irrelevant?
- You're suspicious of

me

because someone you're not suspicious of is trying to clear me?
- I am acknowledging the outside chance of a clever gambit, but it doesn't make sense (see top of post).

The breadcrumb was because I wanted all the claims out before I claimed. This breadcrumb enables me to do it, because it has locked me into a claim, so I can't alter my claimed role based on the other claims.

I am an FBI Agent. And I think we're playing in a 2:1:9 or 3:1:8 set-up. Here is my breadcrumb explained;

Truthseeker (24) = the first returned result on a google search of 'my role is fbi agent'

[Hoopla]

As for my result last night, it was a toss up between investigating Budja or Sotty7. I expected a potential SK to play under the radar a bit, which fell in line with both those player's play who I expected to be a bit more vocal.

I ended up choosing Sotty, who isn't an SK.

[SpyreX]

IF, assuming all things are true, I'd bet on 3:1:8, and mos def a roleblocker.

Which means, if we don't hit the roleblocker today, of the three information roles Hoop is the lowest man on the totem pole.

Lets work this out though. I think there might be a way to break this open.

[SpyreX]

If Budja is lying there exists (probably him) a rolecop - thats the only one that makes sense.

Of course these roles are all "outside the norm"ish soo.

Lemme think about it and try to devise a plan tomorrow/Monday. Input is awesome though.

[Hoopla]

If Budja is lying there exists (probably him) a rolecop - thats the only one that makes sense.

Of course these roles are all "outside the norm"ish soo.

Lemme think about it and try to devise a plan tomorrow/Monday. Input is awesome though.

I think I have a good plan.

Give me a couple of hours to find any loopholes/better options and I will share.

[SpyreX]

I'm down. I'm curious to see how well it meshes up with what I have going on in my brain (and doubly curious to what you're gonna suggest for the lynch)

[Hoopla]

To start with, this is unfamiliar territory for me, and probably everyone else here. I have never seen a massclaim Day 2 in a Mini Normal, and to be honest, have never even considered a massclaim this early in a normal game, but suffice to say this game will have a greater emphasis on the logic puzzle aspect, which I know some players may not have had as much experience in.

But I encourage everyone to do their best to think through the range of possibilities and the consequences of actions proposed, because one or two people deciding the town's collective actions is a BAD idea. Any isolation of power is susceptible to error in judgement, or the possiblility of scum being in control. You would never let one person choose the day's lynch, so we musn't decide on a course of action for today/tonight without equally interactive discussion and consensus.

Things we need to sort out:

(a starting point for those unsure what to do now)

1) Do we have reason to disbelieve any of the claims so far? Which claims are more likely to be truthful, and where is scum likely to be?
2) What set-up are we probably playing in? Our lynch/nightactions should be tailored to benefit us in the scenario we deem most likely, yet still not be too damaging if we are wrong about the set-up we are in.
3) Who today's lynch should be (if any)?
4) What all our night actions should be (if we deem coordinating to be a beneficial idea)?

~~

It is hard to know where to start when attempting to exploit role combinations, especially when there is a chance some of them aren't true. So what do we do? Because in this situation, attempting to account for every hypothetical scenario where certain roles might be lying, or hidden scum roles potentially coming into play creates chaos too hard to predict. Answer: We make assumptions to simplify the chaos.

Normally this would be a potentially fatal thing to do - discounting outside chances to produce a simpler equation. But we are not in lylo, so the worst punishment for assuming wrong today, is producing results unexpected to what we set out to achieve, which can be refined tomorrow (or maybe the next day). I'm open to other theories on the nature of such assumptions, and what we should be trying to achieve with our lynch/nightactions, but trying to include unlikely scenarios into considerations makes the equation so hard to digest.

Here is my first assumption:

Snow White and SpyreX are town.

Justification: Snow wouldn't claim Doctor as scum D1, as it is a highrisk of drawing a counterclaim. SpyreX not counterclaiming D1 (and believing Snow) implies that he genuinely thought another doctor was in the set-up which reflects well on him. SpyreX claiming Macho Doctor means Snow cannot be scum, unless she is scum with SpyreX, as claiming Macho Doctor, then getting lucky and having a town variant confirming her is so unlikely. Snow/SpyreX is definitely not worth considering at the moment, and if on the outside chance it is true, it has a good chance of being discovered by accident through our nightactions.

Here is my second assumption:

DisgruntledSean is town.

Justification: He is a first game newbie, who doesn't seem to fully understand what scumhunting means, let alone what makes a good fakeclaim. How likely is it that he had the prowess to fabricate this? Something else I can reveal now that makes me believe him, is based on my role. My gun. Gunsmith set-ups often have at least one town gunowner to dillute the results of the Gunsmith's investigation, and occasionally one mafia without a gun (although that is unlikely if there is an SK in the set-up, who is the one who probably won't have a gun).

Here is my third assumption:

There is an SK in the game.

This one is less conclusive, and more open to debate. Points against include only one NK on N1, a diminishing field of potential candidates to find this alleged SK, or a crafty set-up design, aimed to mislead me and the town, with an FBI Agent/no SK. Although, I (and cruelty) recently played in a game with this scenario, it isn't common enough overall for mods to use linked roles (nurse, miller etc.) without their counterparts. Or at least not common enough to make it likelier than there being an SK overall. I think an SK fits too well with the gunsmith for this not to be a reasonable assumption. This assumption also has little to no punishment for being wrong too, as the list of possible SK suspects is quite small;

Budja

- Claimed Motion Detector

WingsOWisdom

- Possible

cruelty

- Possible

DisgruntledSean

- Claimed Gunsmith

SpyreX

- Claimed Macho Doc

Sotty

- Not possible

Hoopla

- Not possible

Snow White

- Claimed Macho Doc

Cuetlachtli

- Cleared by Budja (unless Cue deliberately no-killed N1)

don_johnson

- Possible

Wings and cruelty seem like the most likely picks for SK. I can't see any of the claimed powerroles lying (or at least lying to be an SK), as they are so well entwined. Budja maybe, but Motion Detector seems like a very shorttem claim, especially if mafia is likely to be amongst the VT's. DJ is also possible, but I think he is less likely than cruelty and Wings - this is more a gut read on Ice's and DJ's individual play though. I'm finding it hard to quantify, but if anyone is really that curious I can try.

Here is my fourth assumption:

The set-up we are most likely playing in is 3:1:8.

This one is also open to debate. Here is a collection of data I did recently that might be helpful to those less familiar with balance of a Mini Normal game. This assumption is based on me believing the powerrole claims are true, which fits balance-wise with a 3:1:8 better than a 2:1:9 - so here is what we have based on said beliefs;

3 Mafia (unknown power)

1 SK (potential unknown extra power)

2 Macho Doctors
1 FBI Agent
1 Gunsmith
1 Motion Detector
3 Vanilla Townies (2 currently dead)

Overall, this seems like a fair and balanced set-up, but if this is true, it leaves us in an intriguing situation, as we have cruelty, Wings, Sotty, Cue, Don all claiming vanilla. Here's something I doubt though: Every scum would fakeclaim vanilla, especially with a gunsmith, and especially with a motion detector.

This makes me think some of our power must be lying (or I am wrong about the set-up), but either way,

at least

one or two of the VT's must be scum.

Of the power that is most likely lying, I think it is Budja, because I believe the Macho Doctors, and I believe the Gunsmith. Motion Detector could potentially be a valuable scum role to catch town power, but I would like some debate from everyone about the set-up we are in, and which powerroles are likely lying.

My proposed plan:

- We lynch from the pool of claimed VT's
- Budja motion detects one of the remaining VT's at random
- Sean investigates one of the remaining VT's at random
- Snow protects Sean
- I don't know if I deserve protection as I am not confirmed. SpyreX should protect who he believes more/deems most valuable out of myself/Budja. This topic is up for discussion.
- I will investigate cruelty, Don or Wings.

I'm about to start work soon, so I will finish this post when I get back, which will feature the consequences of my plan, possible mafia powers and some other scenarios I've thought of. Hopefully there is enough here to talk about while I am away though - looking forward to everyone elses thoughts.

[Budja]

I like your analysis. I strongly agree with Assumption 1. I agree with A2. The other maybe/maybe not.

Hoopla's plan is good. I think SpyreX should keep his decision to himself.

I believe that at most 1 PR could be lying (Hoopla if anyone ) making at least two of these players scum:
WingsOWisdom
cruelty
Sotty
don_johnson
Cuetlachtli

Cue is

not

cleared as mafia. He is cleared as Mafia PR or SK.
Don is prob not mafia.
Sotty is prob not SK.

(If I believe both Hoopla and DS, I doubt a godfather exists.)

Wings/cruelty are not cleared by anyone and are my fav. picks. Wings only ever really commented on the early ice/DS debate. cruelty seems more likely to be town.

vote: Wings.

[Sotty7]

Okay, I agree mostly with Hoopla at this point. Her post 438 is pretty much why I believe Spy/Snow white. I was a little suspicious of Spy willing to believe Snow's claim like he did, but how events have played out have made me feel happy enough to label then both town for the time being.

The PR claim I think is most likely to be scum is bujda. Why did you look into TeWuicah last night bujda? I don't think you said.

I also agree that we should lynch among the pool of claimed VT.

WingsOWisdom
cruelty
Sotty - Not SK
don_johnson - Doesn't have a gun
Cuetlachtli - Performed no night action

From this list I think we should lynch one of WoW and cruelty simply because they haven't been cleared by anyone.

There is a chance that Hoop is lying and is actually the SK herself. With there now being two docs there is a chance that one of them blocked a scum kill and she had an interesting back and forth with Riddick during day one. I am not willing to rule this possibility out yet, but Hoopla has been feeling townie to me. I also think another night will help us figure just what we're up against.

I'm gonna,

Vote: cruelty

For the time being.

[SpyreX]

I agree with 99% of Hooplas plan and conclusions and they mesh with what I was rattling around.

Only difference is I'm trying to decide if its better to coordinate the night actions of Budja and Sean as well.

[cruelty]

5 power roles in a 12 player game seems like a lot to me...

I feel it likely I am the last PR

What do you think about Hoopla's claim?


Don't have time to talk about anything else, I have to work (on a holiday, sigh, but time and a half, yeah!).

[Budja]

@cruelty, Iffy, as Hoopla herself said, not claiming a PR could be v. bad for scum.
Still the plan looks good so I'm not worried for now.
Hoopla not-town -> Hoopla SK.

@Sotty, no read. No-one was interested in him. A good candidate for performing the scum kill if scum. (Until the whole replacement thing, but that came later).